New Polls Sunday April 17th

[Yeovil Saint]

Lib Dems continue to poll well, all four polls out so far have us in hung parliament territory.

 

ICM/Sunday Telegraph

Con 34% Lab 29% LD 27%

 

ComRes/Independent on Sunday

Con 31% LD 29% Lab 27%

 

BPIX/Mail on Sunday

LD 32% Con 31% Lab 28%

 

YouGov Daily Tracker

Con 33% Lab 30% LD 29%

 

Average of the four

Con 32% LD 29% Lab 29%

 

Interesting times and makes the 2nd debate all the more important.

[aintforever]

The polls mean jack ****, as proved when John Major was re-elected.

[dune]

The Polls point to another Lib Lab pact, which would be a catastrophe like the last time. In places like Eastleigh and Winchester the message needs to be got out that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown.

[Fuengirola Saint]

The Polls point to another Lib Lab pact, which would be a catastrophe like the last time. In places like Eastleigh and Winchester the message needs to be got out that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown.

 

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring :-) I love it, you Tories thought it was in the bag (and it should have been considering how much Gordon Brown is disliked) but now it's just slipping away from you.I want to wake up the day after the election and see masses of gutted Tories on the tv.

[dune]

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring :-) I love it, you Tories thought it was in the bag (and it should have been considering how much Gordon Brown is disliked) but now it's just slipping away from you.I want to wake up the day after the election and see masses of gutted Tories on the tv.

 

It's all about turning a negative into a positive. I have already contacted the Winchester and Eastleigh conservative parties with my battle plan. The message needs to be got out that voting Liberal is a vote for Gordon brown.

[The Cat]

The Polls point to another Lib Lab pact, which would be a catastrophe like the last time. In places like Eastleigh and Winchester the message needs to be got out that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown.

 

Hahaha, I live in the Eastleigh constituency and my vote for Chris Huhne is a vote for the Lib Dems, just like it has been in the past 2 general elections.

 

Even though it's down as a marginal, I can't see the Tories making up the 2% they need and winning here. They lost quite a few seats and took a complete pasting in a lot of the local council wards due to the Tory-led Hampshire County Council wanting to stick gravel pits in Hamble and Netley.

 

Local issues will still count for the general election, and the few Labour voters in the constituency will no doubt vote Lib Dem anyway.

[sadoldgit]

It would worr me hugely if the Government on this country depended on what three blokes did in from of a TV camera in a few staged debates.

[Wade Garrett]

It's all about turning a negative into a positive. I have already contacted the Winchester and Eastleigh conservative parties with my battle plan. The message needs to be got out that voting Liberal is a vote for Gordon brown.

 

Genius. Continue with the negative campaigning just to highlight you haven't got any policies worth tuppence (big society = joke). It has never worked in the past and it won't now.

[dune]

Genius. Continue with the negative campaigning just to highlight you haven't got any policies worth tuppence (big society = joke). It has never worked in the past and it won't now.

 

A hung parliament would be a disaster, it's not negative campaigning to highlight this.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

The Polls point to another Lib Lab pact, which would be a catastrophe like the last time. In places like Eastleigh and Winchester the message needs to be got out that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown.

 

I know Labour will not do well in either Eastleigh or Winchester (or quite a few other constituencies to be frank). Quite a few fellow Labour voters here in Eastleigh will be voting Lib Dem. Myself included.

[bridge too far]

ESB I'm old enough to remember when Eastleigh was Labour.

 

I guess that was when the railway industry was really big there.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

ESB I'm old enough to remember when Eastleigh was Labour.

 

I guess that was when the railway industry was really big there.

 

Do you mean at council or General Elections? Certainly Labour had more of a say when there was a lot of industry in the town.

 

Conversely, Eastleigh (from it's inception as a parliamentary constituency in 1955) was always Conservative until 1994 when David Chidgey won the seat for the Lib Dems after Stephen Milligan's death. The town has been Lib Dem since then.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

[bridge too far]

Do you mean at council or General Elections? Certainly Labour had more of a say when there was a lot of industry in the town.

 

Conversely, Eastleigh (from it's inception as a parliamentary constituency in 1955) was always Conservative until 1994 when David Chidgey won the seat for the Lib Dems after Stephen Milligan's death. The town has been Lib Dem since then.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

 

You're right - senior amnesia kicking in

 

I can remember working very hard, canvassing and leafleting but it must have been for the council elections. The LibDems were just beginning to show their faces then. I'd moved away by the time the seat went to the LibDems in the General election.

[Wade Garrett]

A hung parliament would be a disaster, it's not negative campaigning to highlight this.

 

It is, sorry.

[ecuk268]

Do you mean at council or General Elections? Certainly Labour had more of a say when there was a lot of industry in the town.

 

Conversely, Eastleigh (from it's inception as a parliamentary constituency in 1955) was always Conservative until 1994 when David Chidgey won the seat for the Lib Dems after Stephen Milligan's death. The town has been Lib Dem since then.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

 

Ah, Stephen Milligan - died in rather bizarre circumstances.

[ecuk268]

A hung parliament would be a disaster, it's not negative campaigning to highlight this.

 

In Germany, coalition is the norm. They don't seem to have done too bad.

 

Italy, Finland, Ireland, Japan, Austria, Norway and Sweden often have coalitions. It seems to work for them. All it needs is the politicians to genuinely to put the interests of the country first rather then those of the unions or Lord Ashcroft.

[dune]

I've noticed the latest Mori and Populus polls show the Liberals back where they belong in the low 20's.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

I've noticed the latest Mori and Populus polls show the Liberals back where they belong in the low 20's.

 

All bull**** aside dune, are you seriously worried about the LD 'threat'?

[dune]

All bull**** aside dune, are you seriously worried about the LD 'threat'?

 

I'm concerned about them in the Lib-Con marginals, but there's still plenty of time to get the message accross that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown. In staunchly anti Labour areas such as Winchester this message could be very effective.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

I'm concerned about them in the Lib-Con marginals, but there's still plenty of time to get the message accross that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown. In staunchly anti Labour areas such as Winchester this message could be very effective.

 

That is fair enough - in my constituency for example, the Greens are using the same sort of tactics

[badgerx16]

I'm concerned about them in the Lib-Con marginals, but there's still plenty of time to get the message across that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Gordon Brown.

But maybe that is already understood, and what is happening is ensuring that votes do not go to DC. There is such a thing as an anti-Tory protest vote.

The electorate aren't as stupid as the Tory campaign has so far implied.

[aintforever]

The surge in Lib Dem support is going to be very bad news for Labour IMO.

 

I doubt many Tory voters will go over to Lib Dem but I can see the labour vote being split, especially as they will also lose voters to the Greens and BNP in some areas.

 

Expect some Tory victories in seats they would not expect to win, also expect a much higher turnout from the Tory supporters this time around sealing victories in their usual seats.

[dune]

The surge in Lib Dem support is going to be very bad news for Labour IMO.

 

I doubt many Tory voters will go over to Lib Dem but I can see the labour vote being split, especially as they will also lose voters to the Greens and BNP in some areas.

 

Expect some Tory victories in seats they would not expect to win, also expect a much higher turnout from the Tory supporters this time around sealing victories in their usual seats.

 

That is exactly my thinking, look at the Tory target seats and the vast Majority are in Labour hands. The fragmentation of the Labour vote can only help:

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

It is bad news for the Tories but there will be two weeks of scrutiny and I think that the Lib Dems policy of joining the Euro will be their downfall. Personally I just want to see the gravel drive socialists and vindictive labour party out. Would rather the shallow Tories but if Clegg does it then great.

[dune]

The electorate aren't as stupid as the Tory campaign has so far implied.

 

I disagree. There's a choice between the Liberals/Labour (leftwing) and Conservative (rightwing). It's understandable for votes to shift between the Liberals and Labour, but you'll get some voters shifting between Conservative and Liberal and any voter that does this is thick and quite frankly has no idea about what either party stands for.

[sperm_john]

theres no clear winner at the moment, its a right pickle

[Joensuu]

I disagree. There's a choice between the Liberals/Labour (leftwing) and Conservative (rightwing). It's understandable for votes to shift between the Liberals and Labour, but you'll get some voters shifting between Conservative and Liberal and any voter that does this is thick and quite frankly has no idea about what either party stands for.

 

To be fair all three parties are actually right of centre. The biggest difference between them is that Labour and the Torys are more authoritarian than the Lib Dems.

[dune]

Latest You Gov poll: CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 33%(+4)

 

Based on a uniform swing this would make the Conservatives the largest minority party. As I predicted the swing to the Liberals is going to hurt Labour the most, but in reality the swing won't be uniform.

Edited 19 April, 2010 by dune

[Pav]

me too. I don't think a hung parliament is what the country needs now at all either.

 

It would worr me hugely if the Government on this country depended on what three blokes did in from of a TV camera in a few staged debates.

[View From The Top]

The debate this week is on Sky so I'm not sure how many will watch it but next weeks it is on the BBC and it could, possibly, decide the election.

 

If I'm honest I thought the tories had it in the bag and now I'm not so sure as Clegg and the Liberals really seem to appeal to the floating voters and women.

 

Like most I don't want Brown as PM but I also definitely don't want citizen Dave.

[dune]

In a timely boost the Conservatives have streaked into a 10-point lead over Labour in a poll of 4,000 mothers by parenting website Netmums.

 

Some 33.7 per cent plan to vote Tory, compared to 24.1 per cent Labour and 15.8 per cent Liberal Democrat.

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/170075/Election-2010-David-Cameron-wins-over-mums

[jeff leopard]

The libdem's rise in popularity may just be a flash in the pan, but it was a glorious thing to wake up this morning, turn on the radio and hear that, behind a calm exterior, the Tories are in near melt-down over 'the Clegg factor'.

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

And an ex-editor of The Sun came out with a brilliant new campaign motto for the Libdems 'A vote for the Libdems is a vote againt Murdoch'.

 

Life doesn't get much better than this

[notnowcato]

The polls mean jack ****, as proved when John Major was re-elected.

 

Haha, pin your hopes on one election...

[Joensuu]

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

 

Latest running total of polls sees a hung parliament with a Labour majority.

[dune]

The latest ComRes poll makes better reading.

 

CON 35%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 26%(-2)

[View From The Top]

The current poll of polls is thus:

 

C 33%

L 27%

Li 30%

Ot 10%

Edited 21 April, 2010 by View From The Top

[Ponty]

I can't believe for a second that Brown will get voted back in, but then I said that about Blair last time.

 

What sort of monumentous f*** up does labour have to make to get ousted ffs?

[View From The Top]

I can't believe for a second that Brown will get voted back in, but then I said that about Blair last time.

 

What sort of monumentous f*** up does labour have to make to get ousted ffs?

 

If anything it shows how mistrusted the tories are.

[Ponty]

If anything it shows how mistrusted the tories are.

I'm not sure what that says about the LibDems though.

[View From The Top]

I'm not sure what that says about the LibDems though.

 

That they're not the Tories or Nu Labour.

[Pav]

I can't believe for a second that Brown will get voted back in, but then I said that about Blair last time.

 

What sort of monumentous f*** up does labour have to make to get ousted ffs?

 

They will be booted out of number ten this time round