Clegg's popularity lets Labour stay as largest party

[TopGun]

From the BBC:

 

A Sun/You Gov poll of 1,290 people published on Friday night in the wake of the prime ministerial debate pushes Labour into third place, with the Conservatives on 33%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour 28%.

 

Applying these figures to the BBC Online election seat calculator results in the following: Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats.

 

Many more twists and turns of course.

 

The obvious one is that the LDs are going to come under more scrutiny and it's probably fair to say they are a mixed bunch.

[Saint_clark]

I think Lib Dems have a massive chance this time round. They've definitely got my vote. I'd spoken to many people who seem to think it's a waste of a vote because they'll never get into power - but if everyone who thought that DID vote for them, then it would make a difference.

[dune]

It's too simplistic to put X, Y and Z into the predictor because it doesn't take into account where the Lib Dem votes are coming from. The Tories and Labour may lose votes, but it is Labour that's going to lose its core votes - the Tory core vote will not shift and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Tory core vote will turn out. This will mean that in the Tory/Labour marginals Labour are going to take a drubbing. Here is a list of marginals that Labour currently hold and where the Tories are second - with a little help from the Liberals they'll take a good many more of these seats than they would have. Add these gains to safe Tory seats in the shires and you will find that come April 6th David Cameron will have a healthy majority.

 

Constituency Majority %

Crawley 37 0.1%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey 79 0.2%

Harlow 97 0.2%

Battersea 163 0.4%

Medway 213 0.5%

Warwick and Leamington 266 0.5%

Gillingham 254 0.6%

Stroud 350 0.6%

Hove 420 0.9%

Selby 467 0.9%

Stourbridge 407 1.0%

Dartford 706 1.5%

High Peak 735 1.5%

South Thanet 664 1.6%

Finchley and Golders Green 741 1.7%

City of Chester 917 2.0%

Cardiff North 1146 2.5%

Wirral West 1097 2.7%

Calder Valley 1367 2.9%

Portsmouth North 1139 3.0%

Burton 1421 3.0%

South Swindon 1353 3.1%

Colne Valley 1501 3.1%

Corby 1517 3.1%

Wansdyke 1839 3.6%

South Dorset 1812 3.7%

Vale of Glamorgan 1808 3.8%

Harrow West 2028 4.2%

Loughborough 1996 4.3%

South Ribble 2184 4.6%

Enfield North 1920 4.7%

Hastings and Rye 2026 4.7%

Stafford 2121 4.7%

Broxtowe 2296 4.7%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1910 5.0%

Nuneaton 2280 5.0%

Bolton West 2064 5.1%

Pendle 2180 5.3%

Chatham and Aylesford 2332 5.5%

Staffordshire Moorlands 2438 5.5%

North Swindon 2571 5.7%

Dumfries and Galloway 2922 5.7%

Tamworth 2569 5.9%

Cleethorpes 2642 6.1%

Birmingham Edgbaston 2349 6.2%

Hendon 2699 6.5%

Bury North 2926 6.6%

Redditch 2716 6.7%

Brigg and Goole 2894 6.8%

Worcester 3144 6.8%

Brighton Kemptown 2737 6.9%

Wolverhampton South West 3144 6.9%

Basildon 3142 7.3%

Great Yarmouth 3055 7.4%

Stevenage 3139 7.5%

Warrington South 3515 7.5%

Bedford 3383 8.0%

Milton Keynes South West 4010 8.1%

South Derbyshire 4495 8.1%

Gloucester 4271 8.2%

Bradford West 3026 8.3%

Rossendale and Darwen 3676 8.3%

Halifax 3417 8.6%

Derby North 3757 8.6%

Gedling 3811 8.6%

Conwy 3081 9.2%

Eltham 3276 9.3%

Harrow East 4730 9.3%

Wirral South 3724 9.4%

Northampton North 3960 9.4%

North West Leicestershire 4477 9.5%

Brentford and Isleworth 4411 9.6%

Elmet 4528 9.6%

Tynemouth 4143 9.7%

Hampstead and Highgate 3729 9.8%

Dover 4941 10.3%

Halesowen and Rowley Regis 4337 10.5%

Keighley 4852 10.5%

Plymouth Sutton 4109 10.8%

Dudley South 4244 10.8%

Stirling 4767 10.9%

Bolton North East 4103 11.1%

Reading West 4672 11.1%

Amber Valley 5275 11.1%

Morecambe and Lunesdale 4768 11.5%

Brighton Pavilion 5030 11.5%

Norwich North 5459 11.6%

Blackpool North and Fleetwood 5062 11.7%

Wakefield 5154 11.9%

Waveney 5915 11.9%

Dewsbury 4615 12.0%

Lincoln 4613 12.5%

Pudsey 5870 12.6%

Leeds North East 5262 12.7%

Ipswich 5332 12.7%

Stockton South 6139 12.7%

Tooting 5381 12.9%

Dudley North 5432 13.1%

Ealing North 6159 13.5%

Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush 5520 13.9%

Exeter 7665 13.9%

East Renfrewshire 6657 14.0%

Erewash 7084 14.0%

West Lancashire 6084 14.1%

Sherwood 6652 14.1%

Hyndburn 5587 14.2%

Vale of Clwyd 4669 14.4%

Luton South 5650 14.5%

Thurrock 6375 14.6%

Batley and Spen 5788 14.8%

Regent's Park and Kensington North 6131 15.1%

Newport West 5458 15.3%

Coventry South 6255 15.4%

Ellesmere Port and Neston 6486 15.4%

Chorley 7625 15.4%

Telford 5406 15.8%

Brent North 5641 15.8%

Kingswood 7873 15.9%

Carlisle 5695 16.1%

Crosby 5840 16.1%

Birmingham Hall Green 5714 16.5%

Barrow and Furness 6037 16.5%

Edinburgh South West 7242 16.5%

Luton North 6487 16.6%

Southampton Test 7018 16.8%

Gower 6703 17.0%

Bridgend 6523 17.2%

Weaver Vale 6855 17.4%

Workington 6895 17.4%

Feltham and Heston 6820 18.3%

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 8000 18.3%

[Wade Garrett]

It's too simplistic to put X, Y and Z into the predictor because it doesn't take into account where the Lib Dem votes are coming from. The Tories and Labour may lose votes, but it is Labour that's going to lose its core votes - the Tory core vote will not shift and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Tory core vote will turn out. This will mean that in the Tory/Labour marginals Labour are going to take a drubbing. Here is a list of marginals that Labour currently hold and where the Tories are second - with a little help from the Liberals they'll take a good many more of these seats than they would have. Add these gains to safe Tory seats in the shires and you will find that come April 6th David Cameron will have a healthy majority.

 

Constituency Majority %

Crawley 37 0.1%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey 79 0.2%

Harlow 97 0.2%

Battersea 163 0.4%

Medway 213 0.5%

Warwick and Leamington 266 0.5%

Gillingham 254 0.6%

Stroud 350 0.6%

Hove 420 0.9%

Selby 467 0.9%

Stourbridge 407 1.0%

Dartford 706 1.5%

High Peak 735 1.5%

South Thanet 664 1.6%

Finchley and Golders Green 741 1.7%

City of Chester 917 2.0%

Cardiff North 1146 2.5%

Wirral West 1097 2.7%

Calder Valley 1367 2.9%

Portsmouth North 1139 3.0%

Burton 1421 3.0%

South Swindon 1353 3.1%

Colne Valley 1501 3.1%

Corby 1517 3.1%

Wansdyke 1839 3.6%

South Dorset 1812 3.7%

Vale of Glamorgan 1808 3.8%

Harrow West 2028 4.2%

Loughborough 1996 4.3%

South Ribble 2184 4.6%

Enfield North 1920 4.7%

Hastings and Rye 2026 4.7%

Stafford 2121 4.7%

Broxtowe 2296 4.7%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1910 5.0%

Nuneaton 2280 5.0%

Bolton West 2064 5.1%

Pendle 2180 5.3%

Chatham and Aylesford 2332 5.5%

Staffordshire Moorlands 2438 5.5%

North Swindon 2571 5.7%

Dumfries and Galloway 2922 5.7%

Tamworth 2569 5.9%

Cleethorpes 2642 6.1%

Birmingham Edgbaston 2349 6.2%

Hendon 2699 6.5%

Bury North 2926 6.6%

Redditch 2716 6.7%

Brigg and Goole 2894 6.8%

Worcester 3144 6.8%

Brighton Kemptown 2737 6.9%

Wolverhampton South West 3144 6.9%

Basildon 3142 7.3%

Great Yarmouth 3055 7.4%

Stevenage 3139 7.5%

Warrington South 3515 7.5%

Bedford 3383 8.0%

Milton Keynes South West 4010 8.1%

South Derbyshire 4495 8.1%

Gloucester 4271 8.2%

Bradford West 3026 8.3%

Rossendale and Darwen 3676 8.3%

Halifax 3417 8.6%

Derby North 3757 8.6%

Gedling 3811 8.6%

Conwy 3081 9.2%

Eltham 3276 9.3%

Harrow East 4730 9.3%

Wirral South 3724 9.4%

Northampton North 3960 9.4%

North West Leicestershire 4477 9.5%

Brentford and Isleworth 4411 9.6%

Elmet 4528 9.6%

Tynemouth 4143 9.7%

Hampstead and Highgate 3729 9.8%

Dover 4941 10.3%

Halesowen and Rowley Regis 4337 10.5%

Keighley 4852 10.5%

Plymouth Sutton 4109 10.8%

Dudley South 4244 10.8%

Stirling 4767 10.9%

Bolton North East 4103 11.1%

Reading West 4672 11.1%

Amber Valley 5275 11.1%

Morecambe and Lunesdale 4768 11.5%

Brighton Pavilion 5030 11.5%

Norwich North 5459 11.6%

Blackpool North and Fleetwood 5062 11.7%

Wakefield 5154 11.9%

Waveney 5915 11.9%

Dewsbury 4615 12.0%

Lincoln 4613 12.5%

Pudsey 5870 12.6%

Leeds North East 5262 12.7%

Ipswich 5332 12.7%

Stockton South 6139 12.7%

Tooting 5381 12.9%

Dudley North 5432 13.1%

Ealing North 6159 13.5%

Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush 5520 13.9%

Exeter 7665 13.9%

East Renfrewshire 6657 14.0%

Erewash 7084 14.0%

West Lancashire 6084 14.1%

Sherwood 6652 14.1%

Hyndburn 5587 14.2%

Vale of Clwyd 4669 14.4%

Luton South 5650 14.5%

Thurrock 6375 14.6%

Batley and Spen 5788 14.8%

Regent's Park and Kensington North 6131 15.1%

Newport West 5458 15.3%

Coventry South 6255 15.4%

Ellesmere Port and Neston 6486 15.4%

Chorley 7625 15.4%

Telford 5406 15.8%

Brent North 5641 15.8%

Kingswood 7873 15.9%

Carlisle 5695 16.1%

Crosby 5840 16.1%

Birmingham Hall Green 5714 16.5%

Barrow and Furness 6037 16.5%

Edinburgh South West 7242 16.5%

Luton North 6487 16.6%

Southampton Test 7018 16.8%

Gower 6703 17.0%

Bridgend 6523 17.2%

Weaver Vale 6855 17.4%

Workington 6895 17.4%

Feltham and Heston 6820 18.3%

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 8000 18.3%

 

They don't have a healthy core vote, otherwise they would still be in power! Nice to see a bit of squirming from the smug, who thought the election was a foregone conclusion.

[dune]

They don't have a healthy core vote, otherwise they would still be in power! Nice to see a bit of squirming from the smug, who thought the election was a foregone conclusion.

 

The Conservatives do have a healthy core vote. In recent elections the core vote started to fragment to favour the likes of UKIP, but at this election it's all about getting rid of brown so the Tory core will stay loyal and will be motivated to vote. On the other hand the Labour core vote is shot with deserters to the Greens and the Liberals and those left will not be motivated to vote so much of the remaining labour vote will not turn out.

 

The Tories will win with a healthy majority.

[Wade Garrett]

The Conservatives do have a healthy core vote. In recent elections the core vote started to fragment to favour the likes of UKIP, but at this election it's all about getting rid of brown so the Tory core will stay loyal and will be motivated to vote. On the other hand the Labour core vote is shot with deserters to the Greens and the Liberals and those left will not be motivated to vote so much of the remaining labour vote will not turn out.

 

The Tories will win with a healthy majority.

 

I admire your optimism, I do think you're a little mad though.

[dune]

I admire your optimism, I do think you're a little mad though.

 

There is a very fine line between madness and genious.

 

Cast your mind back to the 1983 election, when a strong showing by the Liberal-SDP Alliance helped hand the Tories a landslide.

 

Happy days.

 

 

"The 1983 UK general election was held on 9 June 1983. It gave the Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher the most decisive election victory since that of Labour in 1945.

 

The opposition vote split almost evenly between the SDP/Liberal Alliance and Labour. With its worst performance since 1918, the Labour vote fell by over 3 million from 1979 and this accounted for both a national swing of almost 4% towards the Conservatives and their larger parliamentary majority of 144, even though the Conservatives' total vote fell by almost 700,000."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

It amazes me that places like Battersea and the Vale of Glamorgan can only be Labour 'marginals'!

[Fuengirola Saint]

It's too simplistic to put X, Y and Z into the predictor because it doesn't take into account where the Lib Dem votes are coming from. The Tories and Labour may lose votes, but it is Labour that's going to lose its core votes - the Tory core vote will not shift and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Tory core vote will turn out. This will mean that in the Tory/Labour marginals Labour are going to take a drubbing. Here is a list of marginals that Labour currently hold and where the Tories are second - with a little help from the Liberals they'll take a good many more of these seats than they would have. Add these gains to safe Tory seats in the shires and you will find that come April 6th David Cameron will have a healthy majority.

 

Constituency Majority %

Crawley 37 0.1%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey 79 0.2%

Harlow 97 0.2%

Battersea 163 0.4%

Medway 213 0.5%

Warwick and Leamington 266 0.5%

Gillingham 254 0.6%

Stroud 350 0.6%

Hove 420 0.9%

Selby 467 0.9%

Stourbridge 407 1.0%

Dartford 706 1.5%

High Peak 735 1.5%

South Thanet 664 1.6%

Finchley and Golders Green 741 1.7%

City of Chester 917 2.0%

Cardiff North 1146 2.5%

Wirral West 1097 2.7%

Calder Valley 1367 2.9%

Portsmouth North 1139 3.0%

Burton 1421 3.0%

South Swindon 1353 3.1%

Colne Valley 1501 3.1%

Corby 1517 3.1%

Wansdyke 1839 3.6%

South Dorset 1812 3.7%

Vale of Glamorgan 1808 3.8%

Harrow West 2028 4.2%

Loughborough 1996 4.3%

South Ribble 2184 4.6%

Enfield North 1920 4.7%

Hastings and Rye 2026 4.7%

Stafford 2121 4.7%

Broxtowe 2296 4.7%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1910 5.0%

Nuneaton 2280 5.0%

Bolton West 2064 5.1%

Pendle 2180 5.3%

Chatham and Aylesford 2332 5.5%

Staffordshire Moorlands 2438 5.5%

North Swindon 2571 5.7%

Dumfries and Galloway 2922 5.7%

Tamworth 2569 5.9%

Cleethorpes 2642 6.1%

Birmingham Edgbaston 2349 6.2%

Hendon 2699 6.5%

Bury North 2926 6.6%

Redditch 2716 6.7%

Brigg and Goole 2894 6.8%

Worcester 3144 6.8%

Brighton Kemptown 2737 6.9%

Wolverhampton South West 3144 6.9%

Basildon 3142 7.3%

Great Yarmouth 3055 7.4%

Stevenage 3139 7.5%

Warrington South 3515 7.5%

Bedford 3383 8.0%

Milton Keynes South West 4010 8.1%

South Derbyshire 4495 8.1%

Gloucester 4271 8.2%

Bradford West 3026 8.3%

Rossendale and Darwen 3676 8.3%

Halifax 3417 8.6%

Derby North 3757 8.6%

Gedling 3811 8.6%

Conwy 3081 9.2%

Eltham 3276 9.3%

Harrow East 4730 9.3%

Wirral South 3724 9.4%

Northampton North 3960 9.4%

North West Leicestershire 4477 9.5%

Brentford and Isleworth 4411 9.6%

Elmet 4528 9.6%

Tynemouth 4143 9.7%

Hampstead and Highgate 3729 9.8%

Dover 4941 10.3%

Halesowen and Rowley Regis 4337 10.5%

Keighley 4852 10.5%

Plymouth Sutton 4109 10.8%

Dudley South 4244 10.8%

Stirling 4767 10.9%

Bolton North East 4103 11.1%

Reading West 4672 11.1%

Amber Valley 5275 11.1%

Morecambe and Lunesdale 4768 11.5%

Brighton Pavilion 5030 11.5%

Norwich North 5459 11.6%

Blackpool North and Fleetwood 5062 11.7%

Wakefield 5154 11.9%

Waveney 5915 11.9%

Dewsbury 4615 12.0%

Lincoln 4613 12.5%

Pudsey 5870 12.6%

Leeds North East 5262 12.7%

Ipswich 5332 12.7%

Stockton South 6139 12.7%

Tooting 5381 12.9%

Dudley North 5432 13.1%

Ealing North 6159 13.5%

Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush 5520 13.9%

Exeter 7665 13.9%

East Renfrewshire 6657 14.0%

Erewash 7084 14.0%

West Lancashire 6084 14.1%

Sherwood 6652 14.1%

Hyndburn 5587 14.2%

Vale of Clwyd 4669 14.4%

Luton South 5650 14.5%

Thurrock 6375 14.6%

Batley and Spen 5788 14.8%

Regent's Park and Kensington North 6131 15.1%

Newport West 5458 15.3%

Coventry South 6255 15.4%

Ellesmere Port and Neston 6486 15.4%

Chorley 7625 15.4%

Telford 5406 15.8%

Brent North 5641 15.8%

Kingswood 7873 15.9%

Carlisle 5695 16.1%

Crosby 5840 16.1%

Birmingham Hall Green 5714 16.5%

Barrow and Furness 6037 16.5%

Edinburgh South West 7242 16.5%

Luton North 6487 16.6%

Southampton Test 7018 16.8%

Gower 6703 17.0%

Bridgend 6523 17.2%

Weaver Vale 6855 17.4%

Workington 6895 17.4%

Feltham and Heston 6820 18.3%

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 8000 18.3%

 

Me thinks you are panicking a little, trying to convince yourself that the Tories will still win

[Fuengirola Saint]

There is a very fine line between madness and genious.

 

Cast your mind back to the 1983 election, when a strong showing by the Liberal-SDP Alliance helped hand the Tories a landslide.

 

Happy days.

 

 

"The 1983 UK general election was held on 9 June 1983. It gave the Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher the most decisive election victory since that of Labour in 1945.

 

The opposition vote split almost evenly between the SDP/Liberal Alliance and Labour. With its worst performance since 1918, the Labour vote fell by over 3 million from 1979 and this accounted for both a national swing of almost 4% towards the Conservatives and their larger parliamentary majority of 144, even though the Conservatives' total vote fell by almost 700,000."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

 

Yes, but this year the resurgence in the liberal vote is going to split the Tory vote :-)

[Fuengirola Saint]

There is a very fine line between madness and genious.

 

Cast your mind back to the 1983 election, when a strong showing by the Liberal-SDP Alliance helped hand the Tories a landslide.

 

Happy days.

 

 

"The 1983 UK general election was held on 9 June 1983. It gave the Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher the most decisive election victory since that of Labour in 1945.

 

The opposition vote split almost evenly between the SDP/Liberal Alliance and Labour. With its worst performance since 1918, the Labour vote fell by over 3 million from 1979 and this accounted for both a national swing of almost 4% towards the Conservatives and their larger parliamentary majority of 144, even though the Conservatives' total vote fell by almost 700,000."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

 

Ave a read of this, http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-cleggs-triumph-could-ultimately-be-browns-too-1947209.html

[thesaint sfc]

I'm voting Lib Dem.

[Saint_clark]

Yes, but this year the resurgence in the liberal vote is going to split the Tory vote :-)

 

Exactly, and most of those who were going to vote for Labour will be voting Lib Dem or one of the minor parties out of frustration.

[Yeovil Saint]

It amazes me that places like Battersea and the Vale of Glamorgan can only be Labour 'marginals'!

 

Don't know much about Battersea, but Vale of Glamorgan is quite a good area for the Tories as it covers the rural area to the south and west of Cardiff with a good mix of farmers and better off commuters who work in Cardiff. It does include Barry which is Labour-supporting but only a third of the constituency.

 

The Tories have won Vale of Glamorgan in 1983, 1987 and 1992 (they had lost it in a 1989 by-election) and Labour won in 1997, 2001 and 2005 so it is a marginal. I think that if Labour and Tories nationally were equal then Vale of Glamorgan would go Labour by 500 votes discounting any incumbency factors.

 

This election the long serving John Smith (MP for 1989-92 and 1997-2010) is retiring and so Labour won't benefit from incumbency, the Tories are fielding the same candidate as last time. I don't see any reason to back anyone else but the Conservatives at 1/8

[Lord Duckhunter]

The big difference between the 1983 SDP and the Lib/Dems this time is that the SDP's gang of 4 were all respected Labour MP's who were fed up of the drift to the left.Therefore, a lot of Labour supporters would have followed them and transfered their vote. This time that isn't the case and nobody really knows who their going to take the most votes off.

 

One thing for sure is their manifesto and beliefs will come under greater scrutiny, there normal policy of being all things to all men, will not go unchallanged, as in normal elections.

 

The Tories can send out a powerful message "Vote Clegg, Get Brown", because that is what's going to happen in the event of a hung Parliament. The Lib/Dems loony Euro beliefs, opposition to defence spending, amensty for Illigal immigrants, PR (despite coming 4th in the PR elections we do have) and other wierd policies will be unpalatable to the Tory leadership.

 

If we get a hung Parliament you'll see the Lib/Dems in all their hypocritical glory. You cant watch a programme with them on, without them banging on about their opposition to the "illigal war" in Iraq, and yet that subject, so dear to their hearts, wont stop them forming a Govt, with the administration that took us into it. They are for "every vote counts" of fairness in the electrol system, yet will still form a Govt with Labour even if the Tories poll more votes and gain more seats. The Tories will win England and win it big, and yet they wont mention giving us an English Parliament, fairness is for Scots, Welsh and Irish, not the English, because their Torys.

[View From The Top]

If we get a hung Parliament you'll see the Lib/Dems in all their hypocritical glory. You cant watch a programme with them on, without them banging on about their opposition to the "illigal war" in Iraq, and yet that subject, so dear to their hearts, wont stop them forming a Govt, with the administration that took us into it. They are for "every vote counts" of fairness in the electrol system, yet will still form a Govt with Labour even if the Tories poll more votes and gain more seats. The Tories will win England and win it big, and yet they wont mention giving us an English Parliament, fairness is for Scots, Welsh and Irish, not the English, because their Torys.