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Grand National Tips/Betting Thread

saint_stevo

By saint_stevo
in General Sports

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

My rather long shortlist !

 

Big Fella Thanks 9/1 on Betfair

Backstage 28/1 on Betfair

Black Apalachi - Available at 16/1 (Sportingbet)

Snowy Morning - Available at 16/1 (General)

Arbor Supreme - Available at 20/1 (Betfair)

Vic Venturi - Available at 25/1 (Sportingbet)

chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

Trends :

 

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 4m 4f

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

 

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the

winners have come from 28% of the runners.

 

Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further

this stat holds true right back to 1970.

 

Age: 9 and 10 yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from 50% of the

runners.

 

Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.

 

Trainers: 5 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

 

Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

 

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

 

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 92 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from

29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all

13 have been soundly beaten.

 

Price 40/1+: 1 win from 196 qualifiers.

 

Weight: The top 9 in the weights (inc. joints) have provided just 1 winner from 98.

 

Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 61, with 3

further finishing placed (LOSS of £53.00; ROI -86.9%).

 

 

GENERAL STATS

 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00.

 

Finishing positions of favourites: U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R,

1/6, 7

 

TRENDS SUMMARY

 

Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner last year but

overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back 40

years is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or

further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as

they have provided 50% of the winners from less than 20% of the total

runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or

more and/or top 9 in the weights) have a poor record, while in terms of age

it looks best to avoid horses aged 7 or younger.

notnowcato

notnowcato

Posted
Posted

Not online tomorrow.

 

Really fancy Noble Alan in the 2m Nov Chase. Very pleasing on the eye, former Sweaty Champion Hurdle winner and leps beautifully. Big step up in class here.

 

As for the big one, all backed each way and nice prices. If one places I'm covered:

 

My Will

Erics Charm

Cerium

Ballyfitz

State of Play

 

Think the ground has gone against Ballyfitz now.

 

Good luck!!

chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
Yes, which doesnt have Hugh's national tips on yet, hence my question :rolleyes:

 

 

;)

 

Well there is of course the main site where he posts his daily tips and the special Aintree site so not having psychic powers I had no idea which site you had been on and the reference to the Aintree site was more a general one as HT never posts his tips before about 10am on the morning of racing.

So don't start getting sarky with me matey ;)

chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
Not online tomorrow.

 

Really fancy Noble Alan in the 2m Nov Chase. Very pleasing on the eye, former Sweaty Champion Hurdle winner and leps beautifully. Big step up in class here.

 

As for the big one, all backed each way and nice prices. If one places I'm covered:

 

My Will

Erics Charm

Cerium

Ballyfitz

State of Play

 

Think the ground has gone against Ballyfitz now.

 

Good luck!!

 

Good luck to you too. I've never in my life had a bet on the Grand National and doubt I'll start tomorrow which should mean any selections I make stand a chance!

Percysaint

Percysaint

Posted
Posted

After the success from today's tipping on the other thread heres hoping these can make some profit

 

Hello Bud

Backstage

The Package

Snowy Morning

Ballyfitz

frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Hate the Grand National as a betting proposition, but I will be having a few quid on My Will, good trainer, finished third last year and is a few pounds lower..

 

Good luck all, and lets hope the horses get round safely

 

Frankie

SuperMikey

SuperMikey

Posted
Posted

Got 50p on Eric's Charm, My Will and Big Fella Thanks.

Pub money if Eric or My Will win, betting money if BFT wins.

A night spent crying myself to sleep if none of them win.

chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
Got 50p on Eric's Charm, My Will and Big Fella Thanks.

Pub money if Eric or My Will win, betting money if BFT wins.

A night spent crying myself to sleep if none of them win.

 

Hope you saved a few pence for some tissues then ;)

SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted

5 each ways in a kind of syndicate:

 

Mon Mome, Don't push it, CLoudly Lane, My WIll, Snowy Morning.

 

Cloudy Lane is a small one, because my name is C(hris) Lane, Don't push it I'm hoping will place, Snowy Morning to win IMO.

 

As you should all know by now though, do not bet on these horses because every bet I make fails to win me money. Seriously. If I win money today, I may do a little wee.

IamLeGod

IamLeGod

Posted
Posted

No jack all bout the nags, have put a few EE's on some random horses simply to make watching it more fun.

 

Ellerslie George

Mon Mome

Black Apalachi

Dream Alliance

Piraya

 

COYH!!!

Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
The Package if I had to have a bet, luckily I don't !

 

Agree, it's the worst race to bet on but it is a spectacle to watch so you have to support a few (and see them get knocked out one by one):

 

THE PACKAGE (16/1)

MADISON DU BERLAIS (50/1)

NICHE MARKET (20/1)

dune

dune

Posted
Posted
Big fall for Ruby Walsh!!!

 

May have been kicked by following horse

 

:mad:

 

Oh well i've also had £10 ew on Mon Mone.

SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted
Great success for everyone on here, one person went for the winner to be placed:smt008

 

Whoop Whoop I'm going to have a parrrrrtay!

 

...If I didn't now have to go to work...

wheels

wheels

Posted
Posted

Don't Push it e/w @ 20-1 :)

Black Apalchi e/w @14-1 :)

Big fella thanls to win @ 10-1 :mad:

 

Have also got Wodds to win Masters @9-2

Kim e/w (top 5) @35-1

Poulter e/w @ 33-1

Mickleson e/w @12-1

 

Oh, and Porstmuff relegated - what a good weekend :supz:

SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted

I had a £5 each way on DOn't Push it, and won £110 quid as I got it at 16s.

 

All in all, I spent £50 on the National so I've made £60. (Although I lost £50 at Cheltenham this year, so I'm up a £10er!)

 

Saints won, Pompey down, good weekend.

saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
I had a £5 each way on DOn't Push it, and won £110 quid as I got it at 16s.

 

All in all, I spent £50 on the National so I've made £60. (Although I lost £50 at Cheltenham this year, so I'm up a £10er!)

 

Saints won, Pompey down, good weekend.

I lost about £500 at Cheltenham and about £200 at Aintree, over the last year I estimate losses of £8-10,000, I have a problem.
Jillyanne

Jillyanne

Posted
Posted
I lost about £500 at Cheltenham and about £200 at Aintree, over the last year I estimate losses of £8-10,000, I have a problem.

 

A problem with the the amount you gamble or the fact that you are indeed s-h-i-t-e at your predictions.

SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted
I lost about £500 at Cheltenham and about £200 at Aintree, over the last year I estimate losses of £8-10,000, I have a problem.

 

When you're a rich porn star, money is no issue though.

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