BBC predictor thread

[EBS1980]

I have us missing the play off places by 2 points, with Colchester taking the 6th spot.

 

Norwich winning the league with Leeds 2nd on GD from Swindon

[LaptopSaint]

Ifs and Buts...

 

IF we won all our remaining games I think we'd overall two of Charlton, Colchester and Huddersfield.

 

BUT I'm pretty sure we won't win them all.

 

It'll be fun trying though.

[the great escape]

Norwich 44 97

Leeds 39 93

Millwall 36 93

Saints 44 78

Huddersfield 24 78

Charlton 17 78

 

Swindon 11 78

Colchester 14 76

Bristol Rovers 4 69

 

 

Only drop 2 points - to Gillingham away- and finish 4th. Oh but we lose to Millwall in the final :-)

[slickmick]

I've tried it several times and 80 points seems to be the cut off point.

 

Colchester to win 4, draw 3 and lose 2 = 79 points.

Huddersfield to win 5 and draw 4 = 80 points.

 

Basically we have to win them all to go up.

Not a chance. :smt086

[Frank's cousin]

I've tried it several times and 80 points seems to be the cut off point.

 

Colchester to win 4, draw 3 and lose 2 = 79 points.

Huddersfield to win 5 and draw 4 = 80 points.

 

Basically we have to win them all to go up.

Not a chance. :smt086

 

If we win all nine remaining and finish on 80 and DONT get a playoff place..then nowt we can do except agree that a 90 point season (taking into account our -10) would be a pretty good result considering where we started from...

 

Its out of our hands, we shoudl just focus on winningour last 9 games, max points and then see where we are.... to many ifs and buts to worry about.

[Son of Bob]

I have us on 76pts, missing out to Colchester by 4 points. The good news is Milwall beat Leeds to the automatic spot!

[London Saint]

With 4 away games left out of our 9 to go I cant see us winning all.

 

I think we will lose at Bristol Rovers and draw at Gillingham. Thats 5 points dropped.

 

Then that would also mean winning all 5 home games which looks unlikely as I think we are sure to draw one of them, due to pressure etc and we are Saints after all....

[NorthamSteve]

I have us 6th facing Millwall. Charlton and Swindon in the mix too.

 

Naaarich to break the 100point mark too.

[St Landrew]

We've already done Rovers at their place this season with a weaker team than we have now.

Brighton are quality under Poyet.

 

Fine away, but at home they're not. They can't score at the Withdean.

[saint_pete]

and it would actually be 11 games in a row ( including MK dons away)

 

And I don't think we've won 5 in a row since Hoddle's last 5 games in 2001!!! So 11 in a row ....

[John B]

And I don't think we've won 5 in a row since Hoddle's last 5 games in 2001!!! So 11 in a row ....

 

12 with the JPT - Unlikely

[Chicken With A Banjo]

Unfortunately the points being accumulated by the top 6 are above average this season.

 

no they aren't

[krissyboy31]

no they aren't

 

The average to get into the final play-off place is approx 74 (which I'd be confident in us getting). This season it's going to be about 79/80, meaning that we are not guaranteed qualifying even if we won all our remaining games.

[dune]

no they aren't

 

Dunni about wat normally happens, but comapred to L2 and the Championship our division really is a league of extreme when it come to ability. we might not see it so much because we tend to struggle againsy ****, but thats the story the tavble tells and the table don't liek at this stage of a season

[ludgershallsaint]

The average to get into the final play-off place is approx 74 (which I'd be confident in us getting). This season it's going to be about 79/80, meaning that we are not guaranteed qualifying even if we won all our remaining games.

 

I guarantee you that 80 points with the GD we would have will be enough.

 

Can I see us winning every game? In a word - no.

[It's There]

The issue is surely 1 game at a time- a win, by any means, increases expectation but also confidence and applies pressure on other teams who are WELL aware what Saints can do! It would be great just to keep winning for a few more games at least so that the dream can live on longer...

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

I can't believe some people on here have Colcheser finishing on 80 points. Ridiculous. Shows the suprisin lack of football knowledge on this site considering it's a football forum.

[krissyboy31]

I can't believe some people on here have Colcheser finishing on 80 points. Ridiculous. Shows the suprisin lack of football knowledge on this site considering it's a football forum.

 

I've not done the predictor nor looked to see what games they have left but 16 points from 9 games is easily achievable, given their form throughout the season so far. Huddersfield could even get 19 from their 9 for that matter.

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

I've not done the predictor nor looked to see what games they have left but 16 points from 9 games is easily achievable, given their form throughout the season so far. Huddersfield could even get 19 from their 9 for that matter.

 

I'm glad people research stuff before talking ********. Colchesters last 9 games, against **** easy teams = 12 points, with 6 of those points in the first 3 games in that run (so if using last 6 games, the most common form indicator, they'll finish on 73 points).

 

Did people think about this, or even bother to look it up? I bet not myself.

[krissyboy31]

I'm glad people research stuff before talking ********. Colchesters last 9 games, against **** easy teams = 12 points, with 6 of those points in the first 3 games in that run (so if using last 6 games, the most common form indicator, they'll finish on 73 points).

 

Did people think about this, or even bother to look it up? I bet not myself.

 

The last 6 games has no relevance. Form goes up and down (look at Swindon, look at Millwall and look at us). They may well only get mid seventies but it will mean a catastrophic loss of form for that to happen. If they do, then Huddersfield and/or Bristol Rovers may overtake them? MK Dons might even go on a run? Who knows? But whoever gets that last position will need at least 78 points IMO and maybe more.

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

The last 6 games has no relevance. Form goes up and down (look at Swindon, look at Millwall and look at us). They may well only get mid seventies but it will mean a catastrophic loss of form for that to happen. If they do, then Huddersfield and/or Bristol Rovers may overtake them? MK Dons might even go on a run? Who knows? But whoever gets that last position will need at least 78 points IMO and maybe more.

 

Of course form is relevant. Otherwise you couldn't predict any scores for any teams at all, as a League table is based on form over the last 37 games. Form is the only way to accurately predict scores, and recent form is the best indication of this.

[Window Cleaner]

I see that Colchester have signed Queudrue from Birmingham on loan. Good player should bolster their defence a whole lot,not good news for us really.

 

See that Mowbray has gone as well , not very patient at Celtic are they.

Won 17/30 good job AP wasn't manager at Celtic with his 17/37 record then.

[NickG]

Didn't do predictor but looked at last 8 games current form to see if anyone is likely to drop out of top 6.

 

If you guess that teams will continue their current form ( last 8 ) for next 8, the league table will be this, with one game to go:

Norwich 79+16=95

Leeds 71+9=80

Millwall 68+19=87

Charlton 67+11=78

Swindon 67+14=81

Colchester 64+9=73

Huddersfield 61+13=74

MK 56+10=66

Bristol Rovers 55+16=71

Saints 53+16=69

 

With one game to go we would be 9th and 5 points from 6th.

 

But if we win those 8 games (and they all continue as they are) we will be on 77 points and 5th, safely in play off even if we lose last game!

 

Means absolutely nothing!

[saintkiptanui]

I did it, we came 8th. 2 points off Charlton and Colchester, that was with us drawing at Bristol city and Gillingham.

[Chicken With A Banjo]

The average to get into the final play-off place is approx 74 (which I'd be confident in us getting). This season it's going to be about 79/80, meaning that we are not guaranteed qualifying even if we won all our remaining games.

 

Total points of 3rd to 6th, 37 games in, this season: 266pts

 

Total points of 3rd to 6th, 37 games in, last season: 258pts

 

Total points of teams in 3rd to 6th on last day of season, 37 games in, last season: 258pts

 

Total points of 3rd to 6th, 37 games in, 2 seasons ago: 257pts

 

Total points of teams in 3rd to 6th, on last day of season, 37 games in, 2 seasons ago: 260pts

 

Total points of 3rd to 6th, 37 games in, 3 seasons ago: 246pts

 

Total points of teams in, 3rd to 6th, on last day of season, 37 games in, 3 seasons ago: 249pts

 

Average final playoff points over the last three seasons: 75 and 2/3rds pts

 

So it would appear that considering the last 3 seasons I would have to concede that my intial comment was incorrect.

 

However, stating that points required for playoffs this season are 79/80 points is still pure speculation. This season is almost certainly not a normal league 1 season and Saints are probably the most abnormal team in the division. For this reason I am reluctant to make a prediction.

 

Though it would appear unlikely, I believe promotion is still there to play for.

[Legod Third Coming]

I see that Colchester have signed Queudrue from Birmingham on loan. Good player should bolster their defence a whole lot,not good news for us really.

 

See that Mowbray has gone as well , not very patient at Celtic are they.

Won 17/30 good job AP wasn't manager at Celtic with his 17/37 record then.

 

The big difference being that Celtic play the equivalent of a boys' brigade team for all but four games a season and we are going forward, whereas under Mowbray Celtic were going bakwards faster than an Italian tank division.

[WATERSIDEIFASAINT]

After todays results have been looking at our rivals remainimg fixtures.

 

Colchester have got Exeter(A),Millwall(h),Swindon(H),Charlton(A),Hartlepool(A),Tranmere(H),Huddersfield(A),Leyton Orient(H) Very tricky run in.Can see them losing to all their promotion rivals or certainly 3 of those games so a slip against an Exeter or Hartlepool away could cost them a play off place

 

Charlton fixtures MK Dons (A),Carlisle(H),Saints(A),Colchester(H),Norwich(H),Exeter(A),Leeds(H),Oldham(A) Can see 5 defeats there possibly

 

Huddersfield have got Wycombe,Brentford,Stockport and Exeter Away Oldham,Walsall,Millwall and Colchester at Home.There is definately 3 or 4 banana skins there.

 

For the people who think Bristol Rovers or MK Dons could be a threat.Bristol Rovers fixtures include Norwich,Leeds and Saints and MK Dons include Charlton,Norwich and Leeds.They also have to play each other.

 

It's a long shot and we can only afford one more slip up( if that) but looking at these fixtures it definately isn't over yet and 76 points could be enough to make it and 80 points certainly would be.Next weeks Brighton game could be the crucial one as it won't be easy winning there.I fancy us winning at Bristol and Yeovil and if we were still in with a play off chance at Gillingham I think we would win there aswell

[70's Mike]

lets just keep winning and watch how the other react

[Kingsland Red]

I'm going to have to do the whole thing again.

Leeds, Millwall, Swindon and Norwich are over the horizon but Colchester and Charlton are dropping more points than I predicted !

[ooohTerryHurlock]

its on - 2 trips to wembley - defo!

[brightspark]

I did this last night before Colchester, Huddersfield and Charlton dropped points. I deliberately was Saints biased and saw us finishing 7th, with draws away at Brizzle and home to Carlisle.

 

In order to get in the play offs IMO, we need results to go our away at a steady rate, and for us to W7 D1 L0 of our remaining games

 

It'll never happen but my false hope remains. COYR!!! lets win the cup today!!!

[SuperMikey]