Cheltenham Festival 19th March thread....one more day to endure!

[chrisobee]

Preview..

 

Triumph Hurdle

 

Not since Scolardy won in 2002 have the Irish bagged this race, but this year they have three of the first four in the betting.

Of the Irish, Carlito Brigante might be the best. I can’t see why Alaivan is preferred in the betting, given the convincing tumping CB gave A when they met earlier in the year.

I also wish Gavin the best of luck with his long range tickle, Westlin Winds, which has very good looking form now that Mille Chief is scratched from the race. (Alas for the horse, if he wins, everyone will say Mille Chief would have won, which is unkind at best and unfair at worst for Westlin).

 

County Hurdle

 

Back to the handicap hurdles, and the County used to be the last race on the card. As a get out stakes, it’s not great, so there’s a small mercy from the fact that it’s moved to earlier in the day (though that is somewhat mitigated by its replacement, the Grand Annual, being equally unfathomable!)

 

Being a speed test, over two miles, five year olds have more than held their own over the last decade, and I’ll not look beyond the 5 and 6yo’s.

 

Two that will be any price, and might run well in a wide open contest, are Secret Dancer and William Hogarth. The former has Grade 2 placed form here from earlier in the season, and as a lightly raced sort (just five hurdles runs) might be ahead of the handicapper here. 33/1 looks big (as short as 16’s elsewhere as I write).

 

The latter is more speculative, but still interesting. He’s a maiden after nine hurdles runs, but has finished second no less than five times. He was only just pipped by Secret Dancer behind Loosen My Load in that aforementioned Grade 2, and looks sure to run his race again. Although he’ll probably find one (or two) too good, 10/1 a place is fair enough.

 

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

 

The form points to Tell Massini for the Brits, and Enterprise Park for the Irish.

 

The race has gone to form horses so far in its five renewals, and it might be profligate to look for a dark horse here.

 

Tell Massini has two wins here, including one over three miles last time in a Grade 2, and that’s my idea of the winner.

 

Simples?

 

Gold Cup

 

Kauto Star the best three mile chaser ever?

He travels like a dream for three full miles. But then he relies on his class to supplant gas in the last knockings of a race.

 

This season, Kauto was breathtaking in the King George, over a flat three miles. The undulating nuanced New Course at Cheltenham is a far greater stamina test than the speed and grace of Kempton’s perfect oval. And it is this which will be the fly in the ointment for Kauto fans.

 

If Kauto Star is pressurised more than a mile from the finish, he may come up dry in the last desperate exchanges. It is a vast ‘if’.

 

Denman... recently, dodgy Denman? Having gone seventeen races without a letter next to his name, Denman now has a U and an F in the form column. Is this a literal case of ‘how are the mighty fallen’? Or is it just a dramatic blip in the Hollywood life story of racing’s most belligerent bully?

 

Then there’s the weather and the track watering policy. On good ground, Kauto is unlikely to be pushed beyond his stamina limitations. On softish sod, he might well get rumbled.

 

The forecast is for rain, possibly heavy rain, but not until Thursday night. If the rain doesn’t come, the track will be dangerously fast. Although the course management would never dare put the word ‘firm’ in the going description, check the race times and draw your own conclusions…

 

So they can’t afford to gamble, and the watering has begun. By Thursday night, when the rain may or may not arrive, the track will have been sprinkled to maintain the perennial (and occasionally correct) going recording of ‘good to soft’. Heavy overnight rain would surely move it to soft, which would compromise Kauto’s odds on status.

 

Denman however is no formality, even on soggy ground. His jumping, as mentioned, has been a bit hit and miss: and you can’t afford to hit them or miss them in the Gold Cup.

 

But a repeat of his Newbury perseverance, or of his 2008 verdict here, would likely be enough on muddy ground.

 

As always in races of more than two horses that get billed as a match, there remains the possibility that one or both key protagonists fail to deliver on the day, and we look for an unlikely impostor to win out.

 

I can’t have Cooldine. Let me say that clearly, right now. I don’t think he’s good enough, and I don’t think he stays well enough (remember Florida Pearl in the same ownership?)

 

That single (offensively?) dismissive line brings me to Imperial Commander, who has some tip top form in the book. He has also had a remarkable nine of his sixteen races here, including four wins from his last five tries.

 

The last time he raced here, he won the Ryanair Chase a year ago. But, and it’s a big butt (think Oprah in her depressed days), he’s not won beyond the Ryanair distance of 2m5f. Fully half a mile further in the Gold Cup must be a huge concern.

 

All of this elimination brings us to Tricky Trickster. This horse stays. He seems to jump quite well too. Although he’s a novice, he does have a chance here. But I’d be against him in the Grand National. If he has any hope of winning going to the last, he’ll be ‘bottomed’ (have his energy reserves firmly tested), and there’s only three weeks before the National. No. Chance. At Aintree.

 

One outsider worthy of mention is Carruthers. A fine jumper, and a decent stayer, he comes here in very good form and might just be each-way value at 50/1. Better yet, you can have 12/1 without the big two, and still get a quarter the odds 1-2-3. That looks a great wager.

 

Hopefully, Carruthers will finish third, a respectful distance behind the tussling titans. My preference is clear, and for Denman, but this is a sentimentalist rather than a scientific selection.

 

 

 

 

Foxhunters’ Chase

 

It is truly one of sport’s great ’sublime to ridiculous’ moments that the Blue Riband of the equine sporting calendar is followed immediately by the frantic mime artistry of so many bad jockeys on so many bad horses.

 

Again, look to the best jocks and the safest jumping horses. And look for recent form and stamina.

 

Bob Hall has Festival form, is on a four-timer and has a decent pilot in Mr A J Berry. 33/1 is tempting.

 

Drybrook Bedouin won here in May over 3m2f, and 33’s is too big again. He was put up as a strong fancy by one of the bookies’ point-to-point men as well.

 

Baby Run was third in the race last year, and has one of the best riders in the race. He comes here in form, and must go close again. 8/1 is reasonable if not great value.

 

And finally, Roulez Cool has been grabbed from France, been running in points, and might just blitz the lot of ‘em. But 3/1 reflects that distinct possibility and, in a race full of schoolboy errors, I’d sooner project 33/1 shots than 3/1 shots.

 

Martin Pipe Conditionals’ Handicap Hurdle

 

Almost there, but it’s a fiendishly difficult run in, with the apprentices replacing the amateurs, and sub-plots aplenty in the script. I’ve short-cutted this, as it makes no sense to write a lot on a subject about which I know very little.

 

Mullins is my man, and Hampshire Express, if he gets a run, is my horse. If not, look for improvement from Pipe’s pair, Ashkazar and Buena Vista, in his dad’s race.

 

Grand Annual (Handicap Chase)

 

If only this was the Arkle! Both Tataniano and French Opera carried my money for the two mile novice race, and both have been elected for this instead, which is curious given the eminent ‘winnability’ of the earlier contest. I definitely feel that the Opera would have been in the first three in the Arkle, but of course that’s idle (and cheap) conjecture on my part.

 

To the Grand Annual, the last of the 26 Cheltenham Festival races of 2010, and let’s get ourselves out of a hole, or up like never before.

 

First of all, French Opera has it all to do off 11-12, as every one of the last ten winners carried at least a stone less than that. (Another reason why I believe Henderson got it wrong in plumping for this race.)

 

A glimpse of recent form and a relative lack of exposure are two key attributes here, as in many of the handicaps where trainers are attempting to hide their charges’ respective lights under a battery of bushels.

 

By contrast, Tataniano has had a very public preamble to this race and, although carrying a couple of pounds more than ideal, he should go close if his jumping stands up. Or if he stands up with his jumping. Whatever. You get my drift!

 

A couple that fit the ‘low key prep’ bill lower down, however, are Matuhi and Safari Journey. And I really like the latter.

 

Philip Hobbs came into the Festival in brilliant form, and underlined that in the very first race, when he rolled over Dunguib with his 12/1 chance Menorah.

 

And I reckon he has a great chance of topping and tailing the meeting with victory here. Beaten just four lengths behind French Opera here at Chelters last time on soft ground, the faster surface will definitely play to his strengths and, if you give the Opera a chance, then you have to give this guy a chance too, at 2.5 times the price!

 

Matuhi is any price, because he might well not get in (he needs twelve to come out as I write). If he does make the cut, he might be very interesting. He’s a novice, as four of the last ten winners were, and has just the one win to his name, when he beat The Package (2nd and just failed to get up in the William Hill Trophy on Tuesday).

 

Since then, he’s run two nice third places behind decent sorts. He does make mistakes which, while acceptable from a lightly raced novice such as himself, would prove costly here. But, at the price and granted a run, I’d take a small chance on him in this.

[saint_stevo]

Im on-

 

Rock Noir in the 14:05 @ 12's £1 e/w

Chartroux in the 14:40 @ 25's £1 e/w

Imperial Commander in the gold cup (used my free bet) @8's £10 e/w

Bob Hall in the 16:00 @ 33's £1 e/w (just cos CoB mocked it...again)

Cest Ca in the 16:40 @ 8's £2 on the nose

Nikola in the 17:15 @ 40's 75p e/w

 

Probably do some more tomorrow.....

Edited 18 March, 2010 by saint_stevo

[bungle]

£60 free bet on Kauto Star in the Gold Cup at 8/11. Return £43.

£10 on Denman (currently 5/1 with Ladbrokes and I can use my "mega price" and I believe get 6/1) to cover.

 

Denman is bigger profit, but £33 up if Kauto wins.

Edited 19 March, 2010 by bungle
Idiot

[chrisobee]

£60 free bet on Kauto Star in the Gold Cup at 8/11. Return £43.

£10 on Denham (currently 5/1 with Ladbrokes and I can use my "mega price" and I believe get 6/1) to cover.

 

Denham is bigger profit, but £33 up if Kauto wins.

 

Lol, you clearly logged on to the site in the end. If anything else wins return = £0 !

[saint_stevo]

All about Imperial Commander boys!

[bungle]

Bob Hall in 4.00 looks a good bet.

[saint_stevo]

Bob Hall in 4.00 looks a good bet.

 

Looked at it earlier, drifted from 25's to 33's since.

 

Worth a nugget e/w?

[sfcjmcsfc16]

Any bookies out there doing good free bet, with like no limits on deposit before withdrawl?

[chrisobee]

Looked at it earlier, drifted from 25's to 33's since.

 

Worth a nugget e/w?

 

A chicken nugget maybe !

 

No chicken nuggets, normal service resumed!

Edited 19 March, 2010 by chrisobee

[chrisobee]

Any bookies out there doing good free bet, with like no limits on deposit before withdrawl?

 

Oh boy, this link should be a bl**dy sticky I've posted it so many times

 

 

http://bet72.com/big-free-bet-list/

 

All the free bets you could want and advice elsewhere on the site as to how to make guaranteed profits though it's like shelling peas. Easy peasy !

[saint_stevo]

A chicken nugget maybe !

 

Says he who mocked Mister McGoldrick!

 

Originally Posted by saint_stevo-

 

Are you joining in my mockery in betting on Mr McG? Or saying he also offers value?

 

Originally Posted by Chrisobee-

 

See my notes for your selections tomorrow !! To answer on behalf of Redarmy79 my bet and this is one I'm confident of is that he means the former lol

 

Im on for £1 e/w

Edited 18 March, 2010 by saint_stevo

[REDARMY79]

Stevo I wasnt mocking Mr McG mate, seriously i agreed with you about him being good value. What a run he gave aswell! 13 years old now, time for him to be put out to grass I hope.

[chrisobee]

Says he who mocked Mister McGoldrick!

 

 

 

 

 

Im on for £1 e/w

 

Are you Irish ?

[chrisobee]

Stevo I wasnt mocking Mr McG mate, seriously i agreed with you about him being good value. What a run he gave aswell! 13 years old now, time for him to be put out to grass I hope.

 

Lol, don't sound too sincere will you !!

[saint_stevo]

Stevo I wasnt mocking Mr McG mate, seriously i agreed with you about him being good value. What a run he gave aswell! 13 years old now, time for him to be put out to grass I hope.

 

I didn't know, but you didn't confirm either way yesterday! Gave a good run eh, 75p e/w paid £8.25. Nice!

 

Are you Irish ?

 

No.

 

 

 

 

German

[chrisobee]

I didn't know, but you didn't confirm either way yesterday! Gave a good run eh, 75p e/w paid £8.25. Nice!

 

 

 

No.

 

 

 

 

German

 

Ok, that makes (non) sense.

[chrisobee]

Stevo I wasnt mocking Mr McG mate, seriously i agreed with you about him being good value. What a run he gave aswell! 13 years old now, time for him to be put out to grass I hope.

 

Indeed it was a fine run for a 13 year old to be fair.

[sfcjmcsfc16]

U need to deposit on all of them!, Stuff that! Ill keep to using paddy power, were there is no limit on a deposit if you win to withdrawn

[chrisobee]

U need to deposit on all of them!, Stuff that! Ill keep to using paddy power, were there is no limit on a deposit if you win to withdrawn

 

Well that is the general idea but since you cannot lose if you open 3/4 accounts at the same time the only problem is if you don't have the money to deposit to deposit in the 1st place ! Bungle got a free £60 on WH as above for a £20 stake. I just wish I didn't have several accounts with all the bookmakers already ! Very few bookies offer free "no deposit " sports bets though a few Casinos have very good no deposit offers.

[REDARMY79]

1.30 Saldantino

2.05 Noble Prince

2.40 Tell Massini + Avrika Ligeonnaire E/W

3.20 Kauto Star

4.00 Trust Fund + Le Duc E/W

4.40 Radium

5.15 Sunnyhill Boy, if he runs if not Green Belt Elite.

 

 

Hope your festival has been better than mine, better start saving for next year!

[chrisobee]

 

 

Hope your festival has been better than mine, better start saving for next year!

 

I think you know on the whole it hasn't !!

[bungle]

Today's woeful selections:

 

1.30 Westlin' Winds - 10/1

2.05 Tito Bustillo - 9/1

2.40 Tell Massini - 5/1

3.20 See earlier post (I predict Kauto will win)

4.00 Bob Hall e/w 33/1

4.40 Balthazar King e/w 20/1

5.15 Tataniano - 9/1

Edited 19 March, 2010 by bungle

[saint_stevo]

the lul before the storm?

[bungle]

the lul before the storm?

 

Maybe everyone has lost all their money?

[saint_stevo]

Maybe everyone has lost all their money?

 

Beg, steal or borrow!

 

Obee 1win Kan Obee is online though i see......wonder what hairy goats he is on 2day

[Badger]

Plenty of helicopters currently overhead taking some of the punters in.

 

If that helps.

[Percysaint]

Bad week so far leaves me with the following

 

1.30 Westlin' Winds - 10/1 also got him at 22/1 and 20/1

3.20 Kauto to win, lumped a bit on him at 6/4 when Denman fell, also Tricky Trickster £2 e/w at 14/1

5.15 Safari Journey - This could be a grab something from the week bet or extra bonus

[Hatch]

3.20 KAuto Star

 

10,000,000 ZWD on the nose

[chrisobee]

For those I jinx apologies, don't know what you have backed yet, for me :

 

Chelt 13:30 Carlito Brigante, Advisor

Chelt 14:05 Noble Prince E/W, Tito Bustillo E/W - Though Tawaagg could be a fly in the ointment though generally on the drift

Chelt 14:40 Tell Massini, Shinrock Paddy E/W

Chelt 15:20 Avoiding the obvious ( Kauto Stat SHOULD win), Tricky Trickster E/W Imperial Commander EW

Chelt 16:00 Roulez Cool, Turthen EW

Chelt 16:40 Balthazar King EW , Fairyland EW

Chelt 17:15 Free World E/W, Safari Journey EW

 

Elsewhere:

 

Fake 14:20 Montiyra

Ling 14:30 Cupids Glory

Ling 15:45 Aphrodisia Each Way

 

Then tonight ew treble and 3 ew doubles:

 

Wolv 19:50 Gold Rock

Wolv 20:20 Angels Quest

Wolv 21:20 Dazzling Begum

[chrisobee]

Today's woeful selections:

 

1.30 Westlin' Winds - 10/1

2.05 Tito Bustillo - 9/1 oops, sorry !

2.40 Tell Massini - 5/1 Sorry !

3.20 See earlier post (I predict Kauto will win)

4.00 Bob Hall e/w 33/1

4.40 Balthazar King e/w 20/1 Sorry !

5.15 Tataniano - 9/1

 

Well you still have 3/4 chances !

[chrisobee]

Beg, steal or borrow!

 

Obee 1win Kan Obee is online though i see......wonder what hairy goats he is on 2day

 

Wonder no more !

[chrisobee]

Maybe everyone has lost all their money?

 

Too many life threatening decisions to make !!

 

Though I have lost my betting bank, or most of it. Ballabriggs kept me in it !

[chrisobee]

1.30 Saldantino

2.05 Noble Prince

2.40 Tell Massini + Avrika Ligeonnaire E/W

3.20 Kauto Star

4.00 Trust Fund + Le Duc E/W

4.40 Radium

5.15 Sunnyhill Boy, if he runs if not Green Belt Elite.

 

 

Hope your festival has been better than mine, better start saving for next year!

 

Today is the day, let us be positively positive, we do support Saints after all and this is NOT the main forum !!

[saint_stevo]

Fingers crossed people.

 

My mate just put £75 on the nose on Kauto. Hmmmm

[stevegrant]

Fingers crossed people.

 

My mate just put £75 on the nose on Kauto. Hmmmm

I've put a tenner on Denman...

[chrisobee]

Im on-

 

Rock Noir in the 14:05 @ 12's £1 e/w

Chartroux in the 14:40 @ 25's £1 e/w

Imperial Commander in the gold cup (used my free bet) @8's £10 e/w

Bob Hall in the 16:00 @ 33's £1 e/w (just cos CoB mocked it...again)

Cest Ca in the 16:40 @ 8's £2 on the nose

Nikola in the 17:15 @ 40's 75p e/w

 

Probably do some more tomorrow.....

 

Well aside from Imperial Commander I have managed to swerve those. For what is worth Mick Fitzgerald tipped up Bob Hall today so that might be a good 'un at the price- where did I mock it ?

[chrisobee]

I've put a tenner on Denman...

 

More money than sense as I always knew

[chrisobee]

Fingers crossed people.

 

My mate just put £75 on the nose on Kauto. Hmmmm

 

Hardly worth it at around 4/5 !

[stevegrant]

More money than sense as I always knew

We shall see

[notnowcato]

1.30 Carlo Brigante win

2.05 Tell Massini win - best bet of day (in other words you may wish to lay it)

2.40 Dee Ee Williams to place

3.20 Imperial Commander win

4.00 Roulez Cool win - strong bet (see 2.05)

 

Will look at the last 2 later.

 

Best of luck.

[chrisobee]

We shall see

 

Indeed, he who laughs last and all that !

[chrisobee]

1.30 Carlo Brigante win

2.05 Tell Massini win - best bet of day (in other words you may wish to lay it)

2.40 Dee Ee Williams to place

3.20 Imperial Commander win

4.00 Roulez Cool win - strong bet (see 2.05)

 

Will look at the last 2 later.

 

Best of luck.

 

 

Oi, I'm on all those except Dee Ee Williams, I'm doomed Tell Massini does look a very solid bet just to put the complete mockers on it !

[notnowcato]

Oi, I'm on all those except Dee Ee Williams, I'm doomed Tell Massini does look a very solid bet just to put the complete mockers on it !

 

Haha, surely the luck has to turn!!

[bungle]

Everyone seems to be on Tell Massini. It can't possibly win!

 

Kauto Star will win.

[Dog]

1.30pm Troubletimestwo e/w

2.05pm Inventor e/w

2.40pm Shinrock Paddy e/w

3.20pm Kauto Star win & Mr Pointment e/w

4.00pm Roulez Cool win (local horse)

[chrisobee]

Haha, surely the luck has to turn!!

 

If it helps Tell Massini is running at 2.40, would help if it could start at 2.05 then it might well be a banker Bungle, could fall several times and win !

Dee Ee Williams DOES start at 2.05 but might well still be running at 2.40

[sfcjmcsfc16]

What does everyone think to my lucky 15

 

trust fund

denamn

shinrock paddy

carlito brigante

 

 

first ever lucky 15

 

what would the return be if 1 come 1st?

[chrisobee]

Ok, this I believe so far is our collective "wisdom " !

 

1.30

CARLITO BRIGANTE chrisobee Cato

WESTLIN WINDS Bungle Percy saint

Advisor chrisobee

Saldantino Redarmy

Troubletimestwo Dog

 

2.05

Tito Bustillo Bungle chrisobee

Noble Prince Red Army chrisobee

Dee Dee Williams Cato

Rock Noir Stevo

Inventor Dog

 

2.40

Tell Massini Red Army chrisobee Bungle Cato

ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE Red Army

Shinrock Paddy chrisobee Dog

Chartroux Stevo

 

3.20

Imperial Commander Stevo chrisobee Cato

DENMAN Bungle, Steve Grant

Tricky Trickster chrisobee

Kauto Star Bungle Red army Percy Saint Hatch Dog

Mr Pointment Dog

 

4.00

ROULEZ COOL chrisobee cato Dog

Turthen chrisobee

Bob Hall Stevo , Bungle

Trust fund Redarmy

Le Duc Redarmy

 

 

 

4.40

CEST CA Stevo

Fairyland chrisobee

Balthazar King - Bungle chrisobee

Radium Redarmy

 

5.15

Free World chrisobee

SAFARI JOURNEY chrisobee Percysaint

Tataniao Bungle

Nikola Stevo

Green belt Elite Redarmy

[chrisobee]

What does everyone think to my lucky 15

 

trust fund

denamn

shinrock paddy

carlito brigante

 

 

first ever lucky 15

 

what would the return be if 1 come 1st?

 

 

Depends on your stake for a start not to mention the prices you took !

[bungle]

If it helps Tell Massini is running at 2.40, would help if it could start at 2.05 then it might well be a banker Bungle, could fall several times and win !

Dee Ee Williams DOES start at 2.05 but might well still be running at 2.40

 

Can't remount in UK racing any more, so even if it went off at 2.05 and fell it would still be all over!