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Cheltenham Festival 18th March thread....Oh no !

chrisobee

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Another day, another disaster looms but surely the bookies luck cannot last !

But if Tuesday and Wednesday were trappy I think Thursday is even worse...

 

Jewson Novices Handicap Chase

 

First up is another of the newer races, the Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase, and it’s not really an ‘all in’ type affair. By definition, these are inexperienced horses, and the weight has told in the five times this race has been run to date.

 

No horse has yet lugged more than eleven stone (or 10-12 to be precise) and prevailed. And all of the five winners so far were first or second last time they ran. Moreover, and as with all of the handicaps at the Festival, not surprisingly no winner had more than one prior chase victory to its name.

 

Rivaliste might go close, but does have a decent amount of weight to overcome. If you can overlook that – and many punters will – then Paul Nicholls’ rising star looks set to contend, especially given Ruby’s assistance from up top.

 

Hey Big Spender is another with lots of course form, and he too would have been a fancy were it not for the burden his form obliges him to haul. Colin Tizzard’s beast may well run into a place, but I fancy something less encumbered will outrun him up the hill.

 

One I’m prepared to take a chance on here though is Alan King’s Bormo. Lurking right at the bottom of the weights (if he gets in), and yet to get off the mark over fences (like 2008 winner, Fingeronthepulse), the conditions of the Jewson look spot on. He’ll relish the step up in trip here, and looks to have been laid out for the race. In a recent ‘Stable Tour’ article, King highlighted this one as capable of improvement, and he might run a mighty race at a fat price (40’s available at time of writing).

 

Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

 

It doesn’t get much easier in this handicapped start to the second half of the meeting, as twenty-plus handicap chasers are replaced by twenty-plus handicap hurdlers, in a traditionally ferocious battle for the Pertemps Final.

 

Some of the stats for this race are interesting, and relate to horses who did (or did not) qualify through the Pertemps series of qualifiers, with many this season abandoned due to the cold and soggy weather we’ve ‘enjoyed’.

 

This race has been a graveyard for five year olds since its inception, with just one winning in three and a half decades, so I’d be taking them on (Mr Thriller, Trenchant, Erzen, Silk Affair, Always Bold). And the only horse older than nine to win was the remarkable Willie Wumpkins, who won it three times in a row as a teenager! (Swerve Ballyfitz. Don’t Push It and Chief Yeoman).

 

But the winner is highly likely to be aged six to nine.

Recent form is also a key pointer with 80% of winners in the last decade having won or been second in their most recent two outings.

 

The two I like are Alfie Sherrin and Smoking Aces. The former is hardly imaginative, given that he’s favourite, but the way he picked up and ran away from a high class competitive field at Newbury last time (including my own Night Orbit, who stumbled and unseated poor Hadden Frost when leading) was impressive.

 

Smoking Aces looks like he’ll adore the extra trip here, comes over in great form, and comes from a yard with plenty of Festival handicap success to its name.

 

The main trainer to follow in this race has been Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose record includes two winners and a placed horse from just seven runners in the last ten years. His Ballyfitz and Kayf Aramis are both previous winners in Festival handicaps, but the weights they carry (and age of the former) reflect this and, even with the first named receiving a seven pound claim from his jockey, I’ll reluctantly pass over them.

 

Further down the card, ‘Twist and Shout’ has Made In Japan entered and, whilst stable bookings might imply this is the third string, he’s not without a chance.

 

Ryanair Chase

 

Next up is some respite from massive fields and weigh with the Ryanair Chase.

 

Another recent addition, this race – over an interim trip of 2m5f – has proved quite popular with both trainers and punters alike, with all of the five winners starting at odds of 6/1 or shorter.

 

The trends are starting to firm up, despite the lack of a great deal of history, and we should be siding with a horse that has proven class (all winners were rated upwards of 150); a combination of speed and stamina (four of the five winners had won over the specific trip of 2m5f); and, course form (all five were previous Cheltenham winners, though not necessarily at the Festival).

 

That bodes very well for both Poquelin and Tranquil Sea. I was a big Tranquil Sea fan, prior to his last run. And, whilst it might seem perverse to oppose him on the back of that bloodless victory, he does seem to be a horse who runs best fresh, and that might just have taken the edge off him.

 

Poquelin on the other hand comes from twice winning stable of Paul Nicholls, and won convincingly in the Boylesports here over the Ryanair trip back in December.

 

He was also beaten into second by Tranquil Sea over the self same course and distance in the Paddy Power back in November, but made so many jumping errors that day that the runner-up spot demonstrated just what a good horse he is.

 

He will need to fence better than that run and, assuming he does, he’s going to be very hard to beat.

 

World Hurdle

 

 

Big Buck’s should win, simple as that.

 

The two best alternatives seem to be the next two in the betting, Karabak and Tidal Bay, but they’re surely playing for place money only behind the impressive and unbeaten in six hurdle starts, Big Buck’s.

 

Festival Plate

 

If you’ve not found a winner yet today, it might be a long way home, as the Festival Plate is another eminently tricky handicap chase. That said, there are some decent trends, and those allowed followers of Gavin’s Festival Trends guide to bag 33/1 winner Something Wells last season.

 

Let’s see if we can repeat the dose (unlikely, but nothing ventured and all that).

 

This race might be renamed the ‘Prix des Francaises’ soon, with six French bred winners in the last decade, and the other four races seeing a ‘Frenchie’ take the silver medal.

 

I’m going to scratch any horse without the suffix (FR) and proceed from there.

 

Majadou in 1999 was the only winning favourite for nearly thirty years, and this race is certainly one to play a couple of long shots against the field.

 

With those two statements used to thin the field, my smallish stakes will be invested in the Gallic galloping of Chapoturgeon and Nomecheki. The first named is already a Festival winner, having bagged the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase as a fresh-faced and precocious five year old.

 

Now a year older and uglier, he clearly goes well round here despite an unconvincing performance in a Grade 3 handicap last time out. Before that, he was fourth in the Boylesports here and, assuming his sometimes erratic jumping holds up, he ought to go close even with the impediment of eleven and a half stone.

 

Nomecheki is another sketchy jumper (well, if you’re going to gamble, you might as well gamble!) from the Nick Gifford yard, but he’s got plenty of ability too. He ought to appreciate this stiffer test of stamina and as a very lightly raced two time winner, the 33’s looks more than fair.

 

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

 

Concluding a quartet of handicaps, three of them over the bigger stumbling blocks, on the trickiest day’s punting of the week, is the Kim Muir, a handicap chase over most of three and a quarter miles, and for amateur riders(!)

 

If you’re in a hole at this stage, I strongly advise you limit your stakes in this race to the minimum. It’s tough. And there will be easier ‘get out stakes’ on Friday.

 

Only three of the last ten winners were shorter than 12/1, so you might as well side with a rag here. Also side with proven jockeymanship (or whatever the right word is!). Seven of the last ten winners were ridden by above average pilots for the grade and – given the returned SP’s – that is not necessarily reflected in the horses they’re on.

 

Nicky Henderson and Ferdy Murphy are the hot trainers in the race, so look out for Galant Nuit, Poker De Sivola and Fleet Street. But it might be worth speculating with the Jamie Codd-ridden I’moncloudnine. He won this race last year aboard Character Building, and looks to have bagged himself a nice ride again this time.

 

The ‘cloudnine has only been out of the frame once in nine chase starts, and has won five of them. He’s normally a safe jumper and there’s plenty of 20/1 available, which may not look too shabby come five o’clock tomorrow.

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RedArmy

RedArmy

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If Big Bucks doesn't win, this week has been the biggest fix ever. The form with Walsh riding is brilliant, 8 wins and a second. Would've won the Hennessy with Walsh riding too.

 

Leaving my money in my wallet tomorrow, my whole week now rides on Denman.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Mister McGoldrick......couldnt help myself

 

Oh dear, could you have not found a more difficult race in which the winner :smt102

To make it worse Mister McGoldrick is drifting like a barge in the market, I hope you got at least 40/1 ?

 

Edit 51/1 on Betfair!

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saint_stevo

saint_stevo

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I am on the following.....

 

13:30 Daves Dream @10's £1 e/w

13:30 Working Title @25's £1 e/w

13:30 Nicanor @14's £2 win

14:05 Voy Por Ustedes @14's £2 win

14:05 Ballyfitz @33's £1 e/w

14:40 Lie Forrit @50's £1 e/w

15:20 Mister McGoldrick @40's 75p e/w :)

16:40 Imoncloudnine @16s £1.50 e/w

 

Before you ask, no idea why i have 3 horses in the first race. Idiot.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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I am on the following.....

 

13:30 Daves Dream @10's £1 e/w- 12/1 readily available

13:30 Working Title @25's £1 e/w - 40/1 available at Extrabet, 56/1 on Betfair !

13:30 Nicanor @14's £2 win- That's about right

14:05 Voy Por Ustedes @14's £2 win - actually running in the 2.40 so might have a chance if it sneaks off at 2.05 ;) 16's freely available

14:05 Ballyfitz @33's £1 e/w- 51/1 on BF, also drifting

14:40 Lie Forrit @50's £1 e/w - Another one you are hoping will get a 40 minute head start :smt102 !

15:20 Mister McGoldrick @40's 75p e/w :)- Already discussed !

16:40 Imoncloudnine @16s £1.50 e/w About right

 

Before you ask, no idea why i have 3 horses in the first race. Idiot.

 

Thank heavens you tried to find "value" !

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sfcjmcsfc16

sfcjmcsfc16

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Guys

 

can someone clear some things up

 

I usually do the footie

 

HORSE RACING:

 

 

whats the best bet to do, to have a good chance of profit

 

I have the following

 

luky 15-whats this?

 

yankee??

 

 

Im new to the horses so can someone give me a breif summeary of whats best to do!

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Guys

 

can someone clear some things up

 

I usually do the footie

 

HORSE RACING:

 

 

whats the best bet to do, to have a good chance of profit

 

I have the following

 

luky 15-whats this?

 

yankee??

 

 

Im new to the horses so can someone give me a breif summeary of whats best to do!

 

A brief summary is nigh on impossible but a few thoughts :

 

1) Do you have online accounts with all the main bookies ? If not you'll find plenty of free bet offers, there are various sites and various ways of using the free bets depending on whether you want a guaranteed profit or task a "riskier" approach. Personally I aim to have at least 2 free bets at any time so can use them together for a guaranteed profit, unfortunately I have at least one account with every bookie!

2) In terms of backing horse a lucky 15 is 4 selections and comprises 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and 1 fourfold. I see this as a high risk bet but potentially high returns. It is very much like having an acca, the more selections the more chance at least one will let you down though in this case 3 should return a nice profit, 2 at least break even though of course it depends on the prices.

3) The internet is a gold mine of info and free tips, ATR, Racing Post etc;

4) Most important, NEVER follow the tips on here ;)

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sfcjmcsfc16

sfcjmcsfc16

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Posted

im with paddypower!

 

At the moment, ive been doing accumlator with 4 horses at each way, at £1 down.

 

ive come close with 3 winning and 1 coming in place, (3rd), but the return was awfull!, seeing as 4 to win was £100 ,

 

 

How do they sort this odds on that out!!

 

 

Also ive been doing a treble with 3 horses each way with a 1pound on.

 

 

Am i wasting my money, or could you give me some tips on what sort of bets to do? and tips for tomorrow

 

much appreicated to a sfc fan!

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saint_stevo

saint_stevo

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ditch the accys. Take the last 2 days, for example, about 6 of us have bet on pretty much every race at cheltenham and between us have about 5 winners.........if you have small money to play with, as most of us do, try a 'to win' bet on horses 7-1 and less and each ways higher than that, get some returns and have a play with that. As for tips for tomoro, check the internet, check this thread up til the off tomorrow. Oh and have a look at imoncloudnine in the 4.40

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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im with paddypower!

 

At the moment, ive been doing accumlator with 4 horses at each way, at £1 down.

 

ive come close with 3 winning and 1 coming in place, (3rd), but the return was awfull!, seeing as 4 to win was £100 ,

 

 

How do they sort this odds on that out!!

 

 

Also ive been doing a treble with 3 horses each way with a 1pound on.

 

 

Am i wasting my money, or could you give me some tips on what sort of bets to do? and tips for tomorrow

 

much appreicated to a sfc fan!

 

Personally I go for win/ew singles and doubles max. As above if you have spare

cash in your bank account open accounts with Hills, Ladbrokes et al, link here not only to all free bets available but how to win a guaranteed profit :) You really need a Betfair account.they are on the list. Free £25 bet at present I think once you place your first bet of that amount, if you play it right it is easy money!

http://bet72.com/big-free-bet-list/

 

Darren who runs the site is a Reading fan but don't let that put you off !

I'm sure there will be plenty of Cheltenham tips on here tomorrow but these big meetings are usually a nightmare for punters, tomorrow is another stinker but there may be good bets elsewhere so don't let the lure of the big meetings put you off backing tips at other smaller meetings. I get free tips from several services, one in particular is going through a very bad spell but are pretty good on the whole so I think their results will improve. I'll post them somewhere tomorrow but I always say in the end only YOU can decide which horses to back.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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so you think- just stick at single bets per race to win such as a £1 bet on a horse to win only on a race yes?

 

Last post-be back tomorrow

 

 

please write back though!

 

 

And sticking £1 on your tip ta!

 

That's £1 lost !! No, it does get the thumbs up in my 1st ( preview) post so might be a good bet ew, 20/1 seems to have gone so get on at 16/1.

Edited by chrisobee
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saint_stevo

saint_stevo

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keep it simple mate. Dont be put off by seemingly low odds. I would rather my 5-1 horse wins me a tenner than a 30-1 treble loses me 2quid. Doubles are about as complex as i get. Other than a stupid bet i did this week. Used to do lucky 15s but wasnt really worth it with my stakes. Oh and take my tips at your peril. Poker de sivola tho chrisobee old bean

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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im with paddypower!

 

At the moment, ive been doing accumlator with 4 horses at each way, at £1 down.

 

ive come close with 3 winning and 1 coming in place, (3rd), but the return was awfull!, seeing as 4 to win was £100 ,

 

 

How do they sort this odds on that out!!

 

 

 

Well with an Acca you need all selections to win or place so you would have lost the win part of the bet. I can only assume the odds were not so good otherwise you'd have made a decent ew profit. Even 4 placed horses at 2/1 each returns a decent profit.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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keep it simple mate. Dont be put off by seemingly low odds. I would rather my 5-1 horse wins me a tenner than a 30-1 treble loses me 2quid. Doubles are about as complex as i get. Other than a stupid bet i did this week. Used to do lucky 15s but wasnt really worth it with my stakes. Oh and take my tips at your peril. Poker de sivola tho chrisobee old bean

 

You had a good day Stevo, as above even 4 placed horses at average 2/1 ( 1/5 the odds) returns a decent profit. I agree, 99/100 horses are a big price as they have little chance of winning. Although Cheltenham has of course seen too many big priced winners, also 100's of big priced losers too. ie, I think you need more luck than judgement at the big meetings !

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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With absolutely no confidence of finding even one winner my picks for today with possibly a few later selections to follow!

 

1.30 China Rock @ 10/1, Hey Big spender @ 10/1 ( swerved Dave's Dream as Stevo is on that one though it's not without a chance !)

2.05 Ainama @ 8/1, Smoking Aces ew @ 10/1

2.40 Schindler's Hunt e/w @ 12/1. Deep Purple ew @ 25/1

3.20 I would opt for Big Bucks but with so many favourites getting turned over prefer to look for ew option(s) so Karabak ew @9/1

4.00 I'm So Lucky ew @ 12/1 Jayo ew @ 16/1

4.40 Ballabriggs @ 7/1, Boychuk e/w. @ 20/1

 

At least I'm on before Bungle unless we are posting at the same time, I fully expect a few of mine to be jinxed !

 

Elsewhere:

 

Southwell

3.05 Novay Essjay NAP @ 2/1

Wolverhampton

7.45 My Mate Mal @2/1

Edited by chrisobee
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bungle

bungle

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Posted (edited)

Today's terrible, terrible selections:

 

1.30 Copper Bleu - 14/1

2.05 Don't push it e/w - 28/1

2.40 Poquelin - 10/3

3.20 Big Bucks on Big Buck's

4.00 Victoria's Groom e/w - 33/1

4.40 Galant Nuit - 9/1

Edited by bungle
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notnowcato

notnowcato

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I hate reading aftertimers but I did have little on Big Zeb, still took a battering though.

 

1.30 Rivaliste (win) - very well in, Nicholls has set this race up.

2.05 Alfie Sherrin (win) - looked really green lto at Newbury but still won with plenty in hand. Kayf Aramis (e/w).

2.40 Poquelin - everything in it's favour today.

3.20 Karabak (win) and Sentry Duty (win)

4.00 Watch My Back (win) and Sunnyhillboy (win)

 

Still looking at the last

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Won't load for me at all, on any computer!

 

Frustrating as they have a deal where you bet £20 and then they will give you £60 free bet.

 

 

I know but I have an account already, I assume it is for new accounts !? I'm actually logged in now and it is fine so it is strange you cannot get on.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Can you cancel bets on Ladbrokes online?

 

 

How do you mean ? When/where did you place the bets? Can you ever cancel a bet ?? I doubt you can once placed, that is the general rule.

 

Ladbrokes rule 7:

 

. GENERAL

 

7.1 No bet can be cancelled once confirmed by us. All bets stand once confirmed whether the customer is on-line or off-line.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Ok, so far we have :

 

1.30

Dave's Dreams Saint Stevo

Nicanor stevo

Working Title stevo

China Rock chrisobee

Hey Big Spender chrisobee

Copper Bleu Bungle/ Stevo's mate !

Rivaliste Cato

 

So 7/20 runners

 

2.05

Ballyfitz stevo

Ainama chrisobee

Smoking Aces chrisobee/Stevo's mate

Don't Push it Bungle

Alfie Sherrin Cato

 

Only 5/24, no chance !

 

2.40

Voy Por Ustedes stevo

Schindlers Hunt chrisobee

Deep Purple chrisobee

Poquelin Bungle/ Cato/ Lebane

Barbers Shop Stevo's mate/chrisobee

 

5/13 Could find the winner

 

3.20

Lie Forrit Stevo

Karabak chrisobee/Cato

Big Bucks Bungle/ Stevo's mate

Sentry Duty Cato /chrisobee

Time for Rupert KK /Lebane

 

5/14 Maybe !?

 

4.00

Mister McGoldrick Stevo

I'm So Lucky chrisobee

Jayo chrisobee

Victoria's Groom Bungle

Private Be Stevo's mate

Watch My Back Cato

Sunnyhillboy Cato

Watch My Back chrisobee

 

7/26- odds against methinks !

 

 

4.40

Imoncloudnine Stevo

Ballabriggs chrisobee

Boychuk chrisobee

Galant Nuit Bungle

Isn't That Lucky Stevo's mate

 

5/24 Slim to no chance !

 

Plus 3 others I mentioned, no one has backed any of them !!

 

 

2.05 Prince Erik @ around 12/1

2.40 Planet Of Sound @ 14/1

4.00 Song Of Songs @ 10/1

Edited by chrisobee
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