What the predictor says.

[Professor]

Even the best team in a league can't win every game - there's too much of a luck element, over goal chances becoming goals or not, however well a team plays. Regardless of how well anyone predicts the results of other teams, maximum points from Saints is not a realistic prospect but as long as 6th place is mathematically possible the excitement will continue. Bristol Rovers, MK, Millwall and Huddersfield need to have poor runs, all four of them, and the odds on that happening to all four can't be too high!

[Legod Third Coming]

Even the best team in a league can't win every game - there's too much of a luck element, over goal chances becoming goals or not, however well a team plays. Regardless of how well anyone predicts the results of other teams, maximum points from Saints is not a realistic prospect but as long as 6th place is mathematically possible the excitement will continue. Bristol Rovers, MK, Millwall and Huddersfield need to have poor runs, all four of them, and the odds on that happening to all four can't be too high!

 

I do keep saying this but we don't need anyone to have a bad run... we just need the teams higher in the league to beat the ones below them. That's the way I've predicted every game, apart from the occasional one where I used a bit of form/nous to predict - ie. Huddersfield v Leeds which had score draw all over it!

 

The things is that we're fortunate with the way the fixtures have unfolded in so far as we have a lot of teams above us to play (at home) which gives a 3 point swing opportunity as well as GD swing opportunity.

 

In addition those teams often have to play one another - games they both can't win, naturally.

 

And that doesn't account for draws or dodgy results (such as Stockport getting something at Huddersfield, etc).

 

Unless we were bloody unlucky, our fate should be in our own hands. Win all our remaining games and I am convinced we will end up in the play-offs.

 

If we win our two games in hand, we are 8 points behind Huddersfield with 12 games to play...

 

The pressure will also take its toll on someone...hopefully not us!!!

[RinNY]

Even the best team in a league can't win every game - there's too much of a luck element, over goal chances becoming goals or not, however well a team plays. Regardless of how well anyone predicts the results of other teams, maximum points from Saints is not a realistic prospect but as long as 6th place is mathematically possible the excitement will continue. Bristol Rovers, MK, Millwall and Huddersfield need to have poor runs, all four of them, and the odds on that happening to all four can't be too high!

 

We don't need Bristol & MK to have bad runs: on current form we will pass them and pull away, because after games in hand they are only a point or two ahead of us.

 

We do need Millwall & Huddersfield to drop points, which they will. Problem is, every time we drop points our chance of catching either or both of those teams goes down; and it's just so unlikely we'll get through the rest of the season without dropping some points here & there ...

[St Landrew]

I do keep saying this but we don't need anyone to have a bad run... we just need the teams higher in the league to beat the ones below them. That's the way I've predicted every game, apart from the occasional one where I used a bit of form/nous to predict - ie. Huddersfield v Leeds which had score draw all over it!

 

The things is that we're fortunate with the way the fixtures have unfolded in so far as we have a lot of teams above us to play (at home) which gives a 3 point swing opportunity as well as GD swing opportunity.

 

In addition those teams often have to play one another - games they both can't win, naturally.

 

And that doesn't account for draws or dodgy results (such as Stockport getting something at Huddersfield, etc).

 

Unless we were bloody unlucky, our fate should be in our own hands. Win all our remaining games and I am convinced we will end up in the play-offs.

 

If we win our two games in hand, we are 8 points behind Huddersfield with 12 games to play...

 

The pressure will also take its toll on someone...hopefully not us!!!

 

I know exactly what you mean, LGTC. In doing the Predictor, when you look at the fixtures, you can see how things have unfolded, and can unfold. In fact, I would recommend anyone to do the Predictor, just to have a look at the upcoming fixtures for every team. You can quite easily see where Saints might make up the ground, providing they keep winning and drawing, and where other teams can, and will, trip themselves up.

 

If we win all our remaining games, we can make the playoffs. But can a Saints team be that consistent..?

[Legod Third Coming]

I know exactly what you mean, LGTC. In doing the Predictor, when you look at the fixtures, you can see how things have unfolded, and can unfold. In fact, I would recommend anyone to do the Predictor, just to have a look at the upcoming fixtures for every team. You can quite easily see where Saints might make up the ground, providing they keep winning and drawing, and where other teams can, and will, trip themselves up.

 

If we win all our remaining games, we can make the playoffs. But can a Saints team be that consistent..?

 

If you were talking about Burley's team or even WGS's, then I would say no chance. But we're not, we're talking about the most expensively assembled squad in League One, with the two best strikers (Holt is a lumbering oaf, frankly I have no idea how he's scored anything!) and two best CBs - both at least one division better than this!

 

For me, it is down to one thing - fitness/injuries.

 

If the current 'first eleven' stays fit and plays together it's possible....

[saintsdan]

There seems to be an assumption that Charlton are out of our reach but they've hardly been in great form (won 2 of last 8 ) and looking at their run in on the predictor I certainly wouldn't fancy it:-

 

Stockport (A)

Millwall (A)

Gillingham (H)

Huddersfield (A)

MK Dons (A)

Carlisle (H)

Saints (A)

Colchester (H)

Norwich (H)

Exeter (A)

Leeds (H)

Oldham (A)

[RinNY]

There seems to be an assumption that Charlton are out of our reach but they've hardly been in great form (won 2 of last 8 ) and looking at their run in on the predictor I certainly wouldn't fancy it:-

 

Stockport (A)

Millwall (A)

Gillingham (H)

Huddersfield (A)

MK Dons (A)

Carlisle (H)

Saints (A)

Colchester (H)

Norwich (H)

Exeter (A)

Leeds (H)

Oldham (A)

 

 

I could see them going 5W, 2D, 5L with that, for 17 pts. That would be doing quite badly, yet would put them on 80 pts, which we are unlikely to match. If they really implode, and we win consistently, we could catch them ... but I wouldn't count on it!

[Leicestersaint]

We can do this - if only we can all believe!

[SFC Forever]

I t doesn't matter what we believe. The team still believes and that is the crux

[Iowsaintsfan]

There seems to be an assumption that Charlton are out of our reach but they've hardly been in great form (won 2 of last 8 ) and looking at their run in on the predictor I certainly wouldn't fancy it:-

 

Stockport (A)

Millwall (A)

Gillingham (H)

Huddersfield (A)

MK Dons (A)

Carlisle (H)

Saints (A)

Colchester (H)

Norwich (H)

Exeter (A)

Leeds (H)

Oldham (A)

 

Also Gillingham in there too there is not much love lost between those two! Gills will be up for that big time!

[Docker Walker6]

Just done the old predictor, and the Brighton v Saints fixture, has been missed out,

just as well we did not need it, we squeezed into 6th place on 79 points above Millwall

on GD!!!!

[NickG]

I have been doing the old BBC Predictor.

 

I have been as accurate to form as I absolutely can be - ie. taking current league position and recent (last eight game form into account).

 

I can't list all the results here but this is what happens.

 

If we win each of our games (but draw away at Norwich) on the 13th March, having beaten Leeds, we are twelve points off the plays offs...

 

So it's game up.

 

Or is it... because just ten days later, because of the way the fixtures work, if we win our games (again assuming all other teams play to form) we are just six points off the play-offs.

 

With eight games to go.

 

And our run in is pretty straightforward you know.... have a look.

 

Now, I know this is all hocum BUT I am in blinding form on my predictions at the moment. I am 'in form' on the horses and my football bets - I backed Saints to win the JPT at 13/2 and have now cleared a tidy sum on the day by backing Carlisle at 13/8... Punters will know this feeling well. It's an orchid feeling (rare and beautiful...)

 

And I have been as genuine to form as I think it is possible to be - not fluke results, Norwich winning most of their games, Leeds and Charlton likewise, teams above beating teams below them in the league, unless away where score draws might out if the teams are closely matched.

 

My point is this. The table looks bad for the next month until 13th March, but just ten days later we're in the hunt.

 

So just don't give up the faith until then...

 

Seriously, try it.

 

(NB. we do have to win all games bar Norwich, but even a draw with Leeds and we are still only 8 off with 8 to go).

 

are we on schedule?

[St Landrew]

are we on schedule?

 

Nope, we're a few points behind where we should be. Blame Tranmere and Wycombe. Well actually, blame our team's ability to underestimate less capable teams, but you know what I mean.

[St Landrew]

are we on schedule?

 

Nope, we're a few points behind where we should be. Blame Tranmere and Wycombe. Well actually, blame our team's ability to underestimate less capable teams, but you know what I mean.

 

Remember Brighton at SMS..?

[maysie]

Just done the predictor:

 

I had us as losing away to Bristol Rovers, drawing away to Gillingham and winning all other games:

 

Here is the top 10:

Norwich 104 (+58 )

Leeds 91 (+39)

Millwall 89 (+33)

Swindon 81 (+12)

Charlton 79 (+20)

SAINTS 78 (+52)

-----------

Colchester 78 (+20)

Huddersfield 74 (+18 )

MK Dons 68 (-1)

Brist Rovs 65 (-4)

 

 

So there we go... :-)

[RedAndWhite91]

I done it a few days ago and we were 1 point off the play off spots.

[hutch]

Are Saints & Brighton still only playing 45 games each on there?

[John B]

Nope, we're a few points behind where we should be. Blame Tranmere and Wycombe. Well actually, blame our team's ability to underestimate less capable teams, but you know what I mean.

 

Remember Brighton at SMS..?

 

No I dont think so it was the start of the season where we lost out big time.

 

Surely if we had another four points from the first few games things would be a lot better a few dropped points in the last few games is normal where teams in the relegation area are fighting hard.

[Legod Third Coming]

are we on schedule?

 

We are not, and one or two other results have also moved against us, but I still believe on 23rd March things will look a lot rosier. We are essentially four points further off the play-offs today than I predicted (16 plays 12).

 

This is the result of us losing at Tranmere. (why not 3 points then, you say - because I did not accurately predict some of the other results further up).

 

However, on balance I would say that three/four point swing can be recovered but the worry is Millwall and Swindon and if both beat the teams higher than them in the league (Leeds, Charlton who are both stuttering) then that doesn't help our cause at all!!!

 

It will go to the wire, but we must now win every game AND hope other results go for us. Before we simply had to win our games and let form deal with the rest...

[St Landrew]

No I dont think so it was the start of the season where we lost out big time.

 

Surely if we had another four points from the first few games things would be a lot better a few dropped points in the last few games is normal where teams in the relegation area are fighting hard.

 

Oh for christ's sake, I KNOW THAT.

 

Of course it was the bad start. We are talking about the results since LGTC did the BBC Predictor. Saints have slipped a few points from where we expected them to be. That is all.

[Boris Karloff]

I'm not sure we'll do it, but it is possible. Milan have made up something like 7 points over Inter in the last six matches, so it can happen to even the best.

 

Also, nobody knows what will happen to these teams at the top once a bit of pressure creeps in over the final weeks. It's all very well winning games in December but it's very different when it matters in April.

[John B]

Oh for christ's sake, I KNOW THAT.

 

Of course it was the bad start. We are talking about the results since LGTC did the BBC Predictor. Saints have slipped a few points from where we expected them to be. That is all.

 

The point I was trying to make is that our current results would be quite acceptable if we had done better at the start of the season.

 

I think we now are expecting too much if we expect to win all our games against lowly sides who are fighting against relegation.

[david in sweden]

I can see very few will believe you, LTC but I go along with the theory, too.

 

In line with that; 2 of the top six will "lose " form and drop back while we gain points.

 

I've noticed that in the run in for the last few seasons, that a couple of top six teams drop away and thats our chance to move up. YES, we have to win almost everything and it may well go up to the last game, but if we have the impetus to do that we will be the in-form team for the play-offs.

[St Landrew]

The point I was trying to make is that our current results would be quite acceptable if we had done better at the start of the season.

 

I think we now are expecting too much if we expect to win all our games against lowly sides who are fighting against relegation.

 

Nevertheless, that is what Saints have to do, if they are to make the playoffs. We can't have any more inconsistency. This team is now the best, or thereabouts, in League One, but they have to play like it practically all the time because, although they are considerably better than teams in the bottom half, those teams will undoubtedly raise their game.

 

This lesson must be learned now, because it will be required for next season as well, whether or not Saints are promoted.

[Amesbury Saint]

did you all have us to beat Swindon tonight?

[John B]

Nevertheless, that is what Saints have to do, if they are to make the playoffs. We can't have any more inconsistency. This team is now the best, or thereabouts, in League One, but they have to play like it practically all the time because, although they are considerably better than teams in the bottom half, those teams will undoubtedly raise their game.

 

This lesson must be learned now, because it will be required for next season as well, whether or not Saints are promoted.

 

Prior to last nights game in the ten games in 2010 we got nineteen points which if it continued over a season would give us 87 points which would be good.

 

I would expect in the next nine games to get at least the same number of points but I do think that the team is currently underperforming like it was at the start of the season

[St Landrew]

Prior to last nights game in the ten games in 2010 we got nineteen points which if it continued over a season would give us 87 points which would be good.

 

I would expect in the next nine games to get at least the same number of points but I do think that the team is currently underperforming like it was at the start of the season

 

Read the odd review where AP talks about it still being mathematically possible to reach the playoffs. Which of course, it is, but now it's a remote chance, requiring absolute consistency of the kind Saints are just not doing.

[John B]

Read the odd review where AP talks about it still being mathematically possible to reach the playoffs. Which of course, it is, but now it's a remote chance, requiring absolute consistency of the kind Saints are just not doing.

 

Oh yes but I never really expected us to get to the playoffs