Realistic Thread

[hutch]

I think, being realistic, that we'll end up with somewhere between 72 and 75 points (inclusive). Whether that'll be enough, I don't know.

[up and away]

The question is, what does Cortese think is realistic? If I was nigh on out spending all the other clubs combined on players, I would feel that getting into the play off's has to be a minimum requirement. Failure to go up would prove expensive and if we throw more money into this transfer window it's not for consolidation.

 

I am happy to leave this one to Cortese and fully accept what he decides.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

Excellent post SRS!

[John B]

I think, being realistic, that we'll end up with somewhere between 72 and 75 points (inclusive). Whether that'll be enough, I don't know.

 

Well if you did know you would be something very special;)

[St Marco]

To add to this i think if we had been taken over by any of the other groups we would still be battling relegation. Because we probably wouldn't have had the funds to bring in the players we have.

 

We have spent around £2.5m on players this year. We have sold about £3m. £2.5m in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of money. Especially when you compare it to Burley spending £12m and we barely making it into the playoffs.

[RonManager]

Go on...have a guess!

 

Well if the big boys knock each other out and the magic FACup dust has been sprinkled upon us then it's champagne in the bath at Wembley!!

 

That's the thing with cups - realistically it's hard to be realistic!

[Micky]

Hallelujah...! At last, there are realists here. Was beginning to worry - but agree with the OP totally apart from the 'guaranteed' promotion place next season.

 

If it were that easy - everybody would be a football manager. Many have been here and many have found it very difficult to get out.

 

After all of the turmoil, this season has been an absolute blast, good owners, good manager, good players, good facilities and good prospects. Yes, we are set up for success, but nothing in this game is a given.

 

I'm happy to go with the five year plan so long as we are making strides forward.

[LaptopSaint]

The question is, what does Cortese think is realistic? If I was nigh on out spending all the other clubs combined on players, I would feel that getting into the play off's has to be a minimum requirement. Failure to go up would prove expensive and if we throw more money into this transfer window it's not for consolidation.

 

I am happy to leave this one to Cortese and fully accept what he decides.

 

I for one would be both gutted and amazed if Cortese gave Pardew the boot in the summer, even if we end up outside the top ten let alone the top six. If there's one thing we've learnt during the Lowetastrophe it is that continuity is the key.

 

Really looking forward to Ipswich by the way. Gives us a chance to see how we measure up against what is (after their bad start) a typical mid-table CCC team.

[1976_Child]

If Lowe was still in charge we would of got automatic promotion this season. I miss the good old days.

[Tac-tics]

If we get to the JPT we will win it I really think, MK Dons look a bit decent atm so not 100% we'll get there.

 

FA Cup, we'll get a replay and then loose next round.

 

League we will finish 8th.

[saintwarwick]

To add to this i think if we had been taken over by any of the other groups we would still be battling relegation. Because we probably wouldn't have had the funds to bring in the players we have.

 

We have spent around £2.5m on players this year. We have sold about £3m. £2.5m in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of money. Especially when you compare it to Burley spending £12m and we barely making it into the playoffs.

 

Burley also sold £20million of players, I point this out as you mentioned the spend and selling of players under the current regime but only the spend under Burley, just like to keep the record straight. I agree with your first paragraph though :smile:

[Thedelldays]

To add to this i think if we had been taken over by any of the other groups we would still be battling relegation. Because we probably wouldn't have had the funds to bring in the players we have.

 

We have spent around £2.5m on players this year. We have sold about £3m. £2.5m in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of money. Especially when you compare it to Burley spending £12m and we barely making it into the playoffs.

selling players happened before pardew and before the new owners..

 

you have to look at what he can spend...how much have swindon spent from the cox money..or leeds from the delph money or brizzle from the lambert money or..or..or..

 

very rarely in this league does a team get much (if at all) of the money of a big sale...

 

you only have to look at when we signed lambert..he cost as much as the NEXT 3 big league 1 signings at the time..

 

money makes a massive difference in this league...

[The9]

I'm not so sure. I fear Lambert and Lallana, and possibly even Fonte will move on if we don't go up this season as they won't want another season in Div 3 and higher league sides are bound to come in for them, and even though we would probably get decentish fees, we'd be looking at another major re-construction of the squad. I'd rather have the players than the cash.

 

If we start badly in Div 3 next season like we did this season, which we could if there's a few ins and outs within the squad, how long will it be before both the fans and Cortese get impatient?

 

 

I fully accept that we could have lost our club last summer, but we need to somehow go up this season. There is no guarantee at all that we would be in the top 2 next season, it's taken 3 years for a really massive club like Leeds to get back, assuming they finish the job in the next few months.

 

Yeah, but you do like to panic, Patrick. If we start badly next season it will be because we're a poor side, there will be no excuses of no-pre-season or a disrupted summer, etc. That's assuming we're in League One, and there's still an outside chance, just like there has been all along, that we'll be in the CCC.

 

Saying "I'm the only realistic one" and then picking the positions of most likely finish is a bit lazy really. Though there's some over-exuberance in the QF prediction...

[lumpofshipperley]

75 points will take us very near or in the play offs, based on the last few seasons.

To achieve that we need just over 2 points a game: 15-16 wins from 21 games.

It'll have to be a run as good as we have been on before the last 3-4 results.

It should be a fun ride!

[St Marco]

selling players happened before pardew and before the new owners..

 

you have to look at what he can spend...how much have swindon spent from the cox money..or leeds from the delph money or brizzle from the lambert money or..or..or..

 

very rarely in this league does a team get much (if at all) of the money of a big sale...

 

you only have to look at when we signed lambert..he cost as much as the NEXT 3 big league 1 signings at the time..

 

money makes a massive difference in this league...

 

No my point was that if you look at it prior to the takeover and before Pardew came in our club was just a shell. We had an awful squad, and the better players of that squad had gone. With just a few weeks before kick off i doubt very much many people thought we would be getting promoted this year. We got a takeover and a manager with about a week before season started. We added the new players after the season had started.

If you remove Lambert,Connolly and Waigo we really will have struggled for goals. If say the other groups got in would they have got the players in that we have now? I doubt it.

 

The teams who are doing well in this league this year have prepered for it. Charlton last year when Pardew left lost more games under the new guy because they knew they were fooked. They brought people in planning for the following season months before the previous had even finished.

Norwich are very similar except for one thing, the manager. But how many players have they brought in this year? 15 players! 50% of those are undisclosed fees so i have no doubt they rival our spending this year. Especially considering just signing Holt cost them £500k or so alone.

 

And Leeds, well we all know about Leeds. In the past 18 months they have brought in a total of 15 players. They have been in this league now for i think 4 years right? They took time to sort the team out and now they have a very good team. A bunch of lads who all want to go on to do well in their careers, a excellent team spirit.

 

If people think we will have all that in the space of 4 months then as i said before they are smoking too much drugs. None of those teams have instant success, they all put planning into it. Something we could not even start until the season had started.

 

And SaintWarick indeed we sold lots of players under Burley. But in the playoff year we gave Burley something like £8m to buy Rasiak,Pele,BWP,Davis,Skacel,Viafara,Licka,Idiakez etc etc Add to that the players we already had i.e Bale,Baird,Jones,Surman etc meant we had a very expensive squad. The only players to leave that season were Higgenbottom,Fuller and Prutton on loan. Meaning for that season when we spent more then we have ever spent.

 

Some people sound like they are trying to compare that season and the amount of spending with what is happening now when it is not even close. We had a dire squad, the worst in our history and most of them are still here. We have bought some players i.e Lambert and Hammond who were here to sure up the team, not get us promoted. For us to get promoted we still need a couple of proven players like Fonte,Lambert,Hammond,Connolly,Harding etc.. we have elements of a good team with elements of a very bad team. Once those under the very bad team banner have gone we will be a good team who will have the potential to win this league. We are not there yet. Point being money does not = success, the right players do. And we still need a few of them. While at the sametime dumping a lot of our own.

[trousers]

Talking of realism, Didn't Pardew say just before Xmas that he now thought the playoffs were a 'realistic' target this season? If he did indeed say/think that then not to do it this year would now be a disappointment by logical deduction. if he didn't say it then apologies.

 

All I do know is that next season is going to be one big pressure trip for our players if the expectations of this thread are anything to go by! Since when has anything been a fate acomplis aboard the good ship southampton?

[NickG]

Talking of realism, Didn't Pardew say just before Xmas that he now thought the playoffs were a 'realistic' target this season? If he did indeed say/think that then not to do it this year would now be a disappointment by logical deduction. if he didn't say it then apologies.

 

All I do know is that next season is going to be one big pressure trip for our players if the expectations of this thread are anything to go by! Since when has anything been a fate acomplis aboard the good ship southampton?

 

think he said if we are within 9 points by end of Jan they would be

[Cabrone]

I think that we will get close to the play offs but whether we get top 6 is anyones.

 

A big unknown is injuries. With half the season gone its going to be interesting to see how injuries start to affect those teams above us with smaller squads.

 

One thing is for sure - if we do manage to get our noses into that magic top 6 then it will be a hell of an exciting 2nd half of the season.

 

As for the cups, (although I couldn't care less) Wembley has to be a good bet in the paint pot.

[NickG]

I think that we will get close to the play offs but whether we get top 6 is anyones.

 

A big unknown is injuries. With half the season gone its going to be interesting to see how injuries start to affect those teams above us with smaller squads.

 

One thing is for sure - if we do manage to get our noses into that magic top 6 then it will be a hell of an exciting 2nd half of the season.

 

As for the cups, (although I couldn't care less) Wembley has to be a good bet in the paint pot.

 

I didn't think I cared, until the penalty shoot out!

[saintkiptanui]

I think that we will get close to the play offs but whether we get top 6 is anyones.

 

A big unknown is injuries. With half the season gone its going to be interesting to see how injuries start to affect those teams above us with smaller squads.

 

One thing is for sure - if we do manage to get our noses into that magic top 6 then it will be a hell of an exciting 2nd half of the season.

 

As for the cups, (although I couldn't care less) Wembley has to be a good bet in the paint pot.

 

How could you not care less about getting to Wembley??? Weirdo.

[westofshannonsaint]

Facts to help having realistic view;

 

Form over October / November / December / January

 

(period chosen as after team got settled, signings came in, Pardew had backroom staff - and deliberately as when form improved)

 

Played 16

Won 10

Drawn 3

Lost 3

points 33

 

21 games left. This form, repeated, would give us just over 43 points and a total of 72 points

 

 

when you look at the results, the lack of a pre-season really effected us, and if we continue on form we might be in with a shout. It's what I hoped for at the start of the season. if we are within 3 points off 6th spot on the last day of the season I will consider it a success, and it is possible.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I have forwarded a copy of this thread to the editor of the Oxford English Dictionary as evidence that the usage of the word 'Realistic' has changed so that it has now become synonymous with the word 'Mediocre' . Doubtless the appropiate amendment will be issued in the next edition .

 

realistic [ˌrɪəˈlɪstɪk]

adj

1. showing awareness and acceptance of reality

2. practical or pragmatic rather than ideal or moral

3. (of a book, film, etc.) depicting or emphasizing what is real and actual rather than abstract or ideal

4. (Philosophy) of or relating to philosophical realism

5. The ready acceptance of the poor or second rate in the Southampton area

 

Happy to help .

[saintwarwick]

when you look at the results, the lack of a pre-season really effected us, and if we continue on form we might be in with a shout. It's what I hoped for at the start of the season. if we are within 3 points off 6th spot on the last day of the season I will consider it a success, and it is possible.

 

Absolutely, the fact it took us 8 games to record our first win speaks volumes, we were already 10 points behind everybody else before kick off, in fact the first 10 games had us as W1, D6, L3, we were still on a minus after 10 games and our lack of pre season reflects this. Since then we have averaged 2 points per game, put that into the remainder games and that has us finishing on 71 points. If we get to the play offs that will remain a bonus for me, getting to wembley seems a better bet at the moment and I'll take that at the moment.

Edited 19 January, 2010 by saintwarwick