Just how realistic are the play-offs?

[St Marco]

Dont put words in my mouth - you asked a question and I answered it.

 

You now pose a new question - is Pardew getting the best out of his player? Ill answer this with a question -

 

Should a team that signs/loans the below -

 

Jon Otsemobor

Daniel Seaborne

Jose Fonte

David Connolly

Michail Antonio

Papa Waigo

Neal Trotman

Dean Hammond

Jacob Mellis

Rickie Lambert

Radhi Jaidi

Graeme Murty

Dan Harding

 

and already has -

 

Kelvin Davis

Bartosz Bialkowski

Chris Perry

Lloyd James

Oliver Lancashire

Wayne Thomas

Paul Wotton

Morgan Schneiderlin

Simon Gillett

Lee Holmes

Adam Lallana

Marek Saganowski

Matthew Paterson

 

Still be in the bottom half of L1?

 

I have not put words in your mouth. You answered with those players and i asked a question saying "so you expect those players to finish 11 points above Leeds?"

Because you said we should be 1st.

 

So by that logic who should we be getting in then to replace Pardew, Fergie? Mourinhio? Maybe we should go for those Madrid players Ronaldo and Kaka?

 

So how would you get the team playing any better then Glasgow? What would you change? You say we have the players to do it although i don't think half of those you listed are good enough to get a team with -10 to the playoffs.

[Glasgow_Saint]

(a) started with - 10 points,

 

I do ♥ the minus 10 excuse!!

 

Give us the 10 back and we are still somehow outisde the playoffs.

 

Is AP under-performing our is it just that Swindon Town, Huddersfield Town, Colchester United, Charlton Athletic & Norwich have fantastic management?

 

Just a reminder -

 

Jon Otsemobor

Daniel Seaborne

Jose Fonte

David Connolly

Michail Antonio

Papa Waigo

Neal Trotman

Dean Hammond

Jacob Mellis

Rickie Lambert

Radhi Jaidi

Graeme Murty

Dan Harding

Kelvin Davis

Bartosz Bialkowski

Chris Perry

Lloyd James

Oliver Lancashire

Wayne Thomas

Paul Wotton

Morgan Schneiderlin

Simon Gillett

Lee Holmes

Adam Lallana

Marek Saganowski

Matthew Paterson

 

Those are some assets for a L1 side.

[S-Clarke]

I do ♥ the minus 10 excuse!!

 

 

 

seriously glasgow, how the hell is it an ''excuse''?

 

we're not near the playoffs because of the -10 deduction. Saying that the -10 is an excuse is a bit misguided, don't you think?

 

I'd love to get promoted this year, so would every saints fan - but don't go saying that the -10 and our non-preseason are excuses as to why we won't be. They are very valid reasons, how AP was expected to hit the ground running with the paper thin structure he had to work with is beyond me.

[NickG]

I think he is doing pretty well so far.

 

A club that was in decline for many years has turned and is looking up.

 

Well done so far AP and ignore the few!

[Legod Third Coming]

I do ♥ the minus 10 excuse!!

 

Give us the 10 back and we are still somehow outisde the playoffs.

 

Is AP under-performing our is it just that Swindon Town, Huddersfield Town, Colchester United, Charlton Athletic & Norwich have fantastic management?

 

Just a reminder -

 

Jon Otsemobor

Daniel Seaborne

Jose Fonte

David Connolly

Michail Antonio

Papa Waigo

Neal Trotman

Dean Hammond

Jacob Mellis

Rickie Lambert

Radhi Jaidi

Graeme Murty

Dan Harding

Kelvin Davis

Bartosz Bialkowski

Chris Perry

Lloyd James

Oliver Lancashire

Wayne Thomas

Paul Wotton

Morgan Schneiderlin

Simon Gillett

Lee Holmes

Adam Lallana

Marek Saganowski

Matthew Paterson

 

Those are some assets for a L1 side.

 

How are Norwich and Charlton doing in the JPT? Didn't someone put them both out? Oh yeah, us.

[St Marco]

How are Norwich and Charlton doing in the JPT? Didn't someone put them both out? Oh yeah, us.

 

Also i think there are only 3 other league one teams still in the fa cup.

 

But feck it that is not good enough, we should be winning it as we spent a couple of million on players. If we don't qualify for europe next season we should sack the board!

[Whitey Grandad]

You really can't expect wholesale changes in the team to play cohesively for at least 6 games, maybe 10 or more. We are working towards next season and if a playoff place comes along then we'll gratefully accept it.

[scotty]

Are the play-offs still achievable?

 

Emphatically ‘Yes!’ … but it will be tight!

 

In the first round of games we gained 10 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats (38 points gained but equal to a net 28 points with the -10 deduction).

 

If we were to exactly repeat our results (of course we won’t) we would then have 66 points (76 gained minus the 10 point deduction); not enough for the play-offs by some distance. If we take the play-off target as 78 points we need to repeat every point we gained in the first round PLUS a further 12 ‘bonus’ points in the second round – we have now played two reverse fixturse, Colchester, where we needed 1 point (or more) to stay on track; we lost that one; Millwall we needed one point to stay on track or 3 points to move forward, we got one point. Over those two games therefore a net -1 and we now need 13 ‘bonus points’ to reach the magic 78 (the original 12 plus the minus 1 for Colchester).

 

First round of games

Win Exeter City_Home_Win

Win Gillingham_Home_Win

Win Hartlepool United_Away_Win

Win Milton Keynes Dons_Home_Win

Win Oldham Athletic_Away_Win

Win Southend United_Away_Win

Win Tranmere Rovers_Home_Win

Win Walsall_Away_Win

Win Wycombe Wanderers_Home_Win

Win Yeovil Town_Home_Win

Draw Brentford_Home_Draw

Draw Carlisle United_Away_Draw

Draw Charlton Athletic_Away_Draw

Draw Colchester United_Home_Draw

Draw Leyton Orient_Away_Draw

Draw Millwall_Home_Draw

Draw Norwich City_Home_Draw

Draw Stockport County_Away_Draw

Lose Brighton & Hove Albion_Home_Lose

Lose Bristol Rovers_Home_Lose

Lose Huddersfield Town_Away_Lose

Lose Leeds United_Away_Lose

Lose Swindon Town_Away_Lose

 

Second round of games

-1 Colchester United_Away_Draw - actual result was a loss equals minus 1 point

1 Millwall_Away_Draw – actual result draw, no gain or loss

 

GAMES WE NEED TO WIN:

3 Exeter City_Away_

3 Gillingham_Away_

3 Hartlepool United_Home_

3 Milton Keynes Dons_Away_

3 Oldham Athletic_Home_

3 Southend United_Home_

3 Tranmere Rovers_Away_

3 Walsall_Home_

3 Wycombe Wanderers_Away_

3 Yeovil Town_Away_

 

GAMES WE CAN PICK UP 2 EXTRA POIONTS:

1 Brentford_Away_

1 Carlisle United_Home_

1 Charlton Athletic_Home_

1 Leyton Orient_Home_

1 Norwich City_Away_

1 Stockport County_Home_

 

GAMES WE CAN PICK UP 3 (or 1) EXTRA POINTS:

0 Brighton & Hove Albion_Away_

0 Bristol Rovers_Away_

0 Huddersfield Town_Home_

0 Leeds United_Home_

0 Swindon Town_Home_

 

The target is to reach 78 points:

 

We will ideally need to double all of our 10 previous wins, this looks very do-able (with potentially the biggest banana skins at MK away, and perhaps v Walsall or H’pool at home)

 

We have the potential to pick up two bonus points if we can turn any of our 8 draws into wins (Millwall was a big target, as will be B’ford away; Stockport home looks a banker and Carlisle or Orient at home also look winnable)

 

We have the potential to pick up three (or one) bonus points if we can reverse any of our five losses (Brighton and Bristol away and Hudds and Swindon at home are the massive games and all potentially do-able)

 

To re-iterate; we need all of the first round points PLUS an extra 13 bonus points from the remaining 21 games. What happens in the other games is of no real concern to us at this stage, if we get OUR 78 points WE will be in the play-offs (hopefully!).

 

Not impossible but the above shows the size of the task in front of us.

 

I agree our recent form hasn’t been good but on the plus side you have to factor in that our last 4 games have included two of the top 4 away, and also away to Millwall who have one of the best home records in the division. We have loads of games left against middle and bottom sides and we are clearly capable of going on a run if AP starts picking the right sides!

 

AP missed several tricks on Saturday even allowing for the ‘peculiar’ starting line up; he should have pushed LJ inside when Hammond came off and played Waigo, he should have made his 2nd half subs on 60 minutes, he should have taken Otsemobor off (who had completely lost focus/concentration after 60 mins, it was absolutely no surprise when they scored down his side) and moved LJ to RB and played a proper RW. Why not drop Holmes out for the last 20 mins (who had played very well but was obviously tiring) and push AL out to the left?

 

Hopefully we have learnt the lessons from now on … no more defensive line-ups!

 

We are full of goals when we play 4-5-1 (4-3-3) and generally pretty limited when we play 4-4-2! We have to use our pace (no other side in this league would start with both Antonio and Papa on the bench, either at home or away), play Lallana either wide left or in a 4-4-‘1’-1, no way is he a 4-4-‘2’ striker. Can we see less (a lot less) of LJ in midfield? If that’s all Otsemobor’s got to offer I really hope he had a bad day, he offered no more than LJ does at RB and if that’s the case then LJ can safely go back to RB for the remainder of the season.

 

Despite all that I’d give the Millwall result 2 cheers, we didn’t lose and turn our form into LWLL; most of us would have taken a draw before the game and our performance (nor selection) didn’t warrant the full 3 points. In the big picture it was obviously the chance to gain 2 extra points but there are plenty more opportunities for that! The ‘maths’ is difficult but certainly not impossible and I hope we can find form quickly enough to stay in touch and not tail off and leave 10 dead games at the end of the season…..

 

I’m definitely still half-full on the play-off front, there’s certainly no harm in trying for it from where we are, and nothing lost if we don’t make it. Watch the mood swing back from ‘impossible’ to ‘certainties’ when we beat Brentford and Stockport (that would be four ‘bonus points’ and would leave us looking at just 9 more ‘extras’ from the last 19 games). Tight, tight, tight, but surely this team has enough about it to beat Brentford and Stockport for starters?

 

is this the longest post ever on swf:confused: respect!!!

[NickG]

Form over October / November / December / January

 

(period chosen as after team got settled, signings came in, Pardew had backroom staff - and deliberately as when form improved)

 

Played 16

Won 10

Drawn 3

Lost 3

points 33

 

21 games left. This form, repeated, would give us just over 43 points and a total of 72 points

 

looking back over last 10 years that total would put us on previous years either in play offs or very close.

 

We will continue this form? Who knows, could easily drop, particularly if Lambert/Lallana get injured or lose the form they had in this period.

 

Can we match it or improve on it? Again who knows with Fonte, new RB and maybe even bigger signings in the window an improvement is certainly feasible.

 

The facts show we are likely to be within reach of play offs.

 

Would be interested in any fairly reasoned argument to show it is totally unrealistic to consider it!

 

I think most share the same general views;

 

form will fairly close to above -

 

it could easily drop off a bit and if it does we will fall short.

 

it is probably going to be (imho) around the same - maybe even bit better with new signings.

 

if this is the case we will be close to play offs - but its too early to say what the exact target would be.

 

Most posters seem to say it is realistic to aim for play offs, and to say we have a chance. The variation is how likely we will get.

 

I think Glasgow is deliberately trolling.

[SFC Forever]

say that again

[NickG]

I think most share the same general views;

 

form will fairly close to above -

 

it could easily drop off a bit and if it does we will fall short.

 

it is probably going to be (imho) around the same - maybe even bit better with new signings.

 

if this is the case we will be close to play offs - but its too early to say what the exact target would be.

 

Most posters seem to say it is realistic to aim for play offs, and to say we have a chance. The variation is how likely we will get.

 

I think Glasgow is deliberately trolling.

 

say that again

 

ok.

[scotty]

say that again, again

[Glasgow_Saint]

Also i think there are only 3 other league one teams still in the fa cup.

 

But feck it that is not good enough, we should be winning it as we spent a couple of million on players. If we don't qualify for europe next season we should sack the board!

 

Now you're just being a silly billy! :smt047

[JustMike]

playoffs are realistic whilst it is still mathematically possible to get there else not, simples ;-)

[John B]

playoffs are realistic whilst it is still mathematically possible to get there else not, simples ;-)

 

Surely that means it is mathematically possible to get to the the playoff as oppossed to there is a realistic possibility of getting to the playoffs.

[Wes Tender]

playoffs are realistic whilst it is still mathematically possible to get there else not, simples ;-)

 

Not really that simple. There could be a position whereby there was a 1% chance of managing the play-offs mathematically, but then one wouldn't say that there was a realistic chance of getting there, or that the people who claimed that we could do it were realists. Under those circumstances, you would more accurately describe them as fantasists.

 

Realistic would be if we had a pattern of results that added some weight to the possibility of success, a reasonable chance of managing it, not some outside chance involving a huge slice of good fortune.

 

There is a reasonably realistic chance at the moment IMO, but if the percentages begin to slip away from us because of matches lost or too many draws, then although it might still remain a possibility until mathematically impossible, it would then become improbable, therefore no longer realistic.

[Lets B Avenue]

is this the longest post ever on swf:confused: respect!!!

 

Not in Frank's Cousin's league.

[Saint Fan CaM]

One other thing Glasgow is missing out on and something I mentioned some weeks ago. As soon as you approach the top 10 clubs in ANY division, you will start to find progress more difficult. Why? Because those clubs are there for a reason. This season finds the top 10 clubs pretty much all in good form and it will be quite a hard task to break into the pack. We certainly need to win games against teams above us to stand a chance of play-offs IMO.

[Saint Without a Halo]

One other thing Glasgow is missing out on and something I mentioned some weeks ago. As soon as you approach the top 10 clubs in ANY division, you will start to find progress more difficult. Why? Because those clubs are there for a reason. This season finds the top 10 clubs pretty much all in good form and it will be quite a hard task to break into the pack. We certainly need to win games against teams above us to stand a chance of play-offs IMO.

 

And to beat them if we gat to the play off's too!

[brightspark]

Realistically we won't be getting to the Play Offs this year. A successful season would be finishing in a position where, if we could add 10 points, would be enough for a play off position.

 

I'd say it's also important we finish the season strongly to boost our hopes of a positive year next season. Positive vibes during a pre season for once would do us the world of good. And when 10/11 comes around, its no fecking about, the pressure is on. Promotion is expected next season - how about we finally win a match on the opening day of the season?

[JackFrost]

I can't believe how many people there are claiming that if we don't reach the play-offs its a disaster.

 

Survival was always the number one priority and it's only our very impressive and encouraging form from sort of mid October onwards that's got people talking about the play-offs. If we reached the play-offs it would be a massive bonus, an absolutely incredible achievement.

 

I'd be happy with any top half finish this season, so long as next season (assuming we don't go up) we mount a strong and realistic promotion push, based on the form that we have achieved this season.

[Chez]

expectations rise and fall thoughtout the season. Before a ball was kicked I think I'd hoped for a play off place with a bit of luck, after 5 or 6 games it was to avoid relegation, nothing more. Having bought Lambert and Connelly and seen us win 1-3 in a few away games, the play offs were quite simply a must. After recent performances its back to hoping for a change of form and an outside chance of the play offs, nothing more.

 

As for it being a disaster, well, for starters it would be dissapointing, especially considering the money we have spent and the tremendous form we showed a month or two ago. What would concern me was the strng possibility of losing Lallana and Schneiderlin, which would hurt us in both the short and long term.

 

I'd also be a little concerned that we would have overspent in this window on Seaborne when we could have picked up a better player that was out of contract in the summer. Maybe that is not a huge issue.

[NickG]

Surely that means it is mathematically possible to get to the the playoff as oppossed to there is a realistic possibility of getting to the playoffs.

 

means same thing, think about it

[sotonjoe]

I have it on good authority (although I can't reveal my exact source) that the playoffs DO, in fact, exist. Therefore, i'd say they were about 99% realistic (you never can be sure with second hand info).

[Wes Tender]

Disagree. See my post above and tell me which part of it you take issue with. Would you therefore say that we had a realistic chance of winning the Champions League within three years? It is not mathematically impossible, but only an extreme fanstasist would claim that it was a realistic possibility.

[John B]

means same thing, think about it

 

No it does not see Wes Tender's very good post although Mathematics should possibly be changed to Arithmetic

 

Arithmetic and Statistics are very different sciences

Edited 19 January, 2010 by John B

[NickG]

Surely that means it is mathematically possible to get to the the playoff as oppossed to there is a realistic possibility of getting to the playoffs.

 

if it is mathematically possible to do it, then there is a possibility - however likely. Therefore it is realistic to say there is a possibility. Therefore if it is mathematically possible then there is always a realistic possibility. QED.

[NickG]

however

 

mathematically possible is not the same as saying it is realistic that there is a good possibility!

[John B]

however

 

mathematically possible is not the same as saying it is realistic that there is a good possibility!

 

Yes lots of thing are arithmetically possible but often not very statically possible.

 

 

 

You could live to be 125 but that is not very realistic or statistically probable

 

Any news of further transfers?

[NickG]

but it is realistically possible!

[John B]

but it is realistically possible!

 

Possible but as much chance as Pat from Poole eating his garage in the next year or so

[NickG]

it is unrealistic to say there is a big chance that I will live to 125.

 

it is totally correct to say there is a realistic possibility that I will.

 

God we need a signing!

[John B]

it is unrealistic to say there is a big chance that I will live to 125.

 

it is totally correct to say there is a realistic possibility that I will.

 

God we need a signing!

 

I was reading your post on another thread at about 6.25 Is something going to be announced about transfers

[NickG]

some update today apparently

[Glasgow_Saint]

some update today apparently

 

says who?

[NickG]

nickg

[Glasgow_Saint]

nickg

 

Oh shame - almost got my hopes up!

[NickG]

apparently some sort of update from Pardew on transfers today - not sure if commenting on ones done, possibles or an announcement.

 

We can hope

[John B]

Swindon Win Huddersfield Draw

 

So we are fourteen points from the play off as Huddersfield have a better goal difference

 

Could have been worse if Huddersfield had beaten Bristol Rovers

[St_Tel49]

but it is realistically possible!

 

Anything is possible. What is probable?

[modern matron]

Anything is possible. What is probable?

 

Try the BBC forecast thing - unless you make us virtually win every match - impossible to get in playoffs. I reckon playoff would have happened if we'd not lost 10 points....still next season top 2.

 

COYR

[Matthew Le God]

apparently some sort of update from Pardew on transfers today - not sure if commenting on ones done, possibles or an announcement.

 

We can hope

 

Happened at 5pm

 

Video has been on Saints Player all that time.

[Matthew Le God]

Try the BBC forecast thing - unless you make us virtually win every match - impossible to get in playoffs.

 

Don't be stupid.

 

14 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 21 games would see Saints on 76 points.

 

76 points has been enough for the last 10 years to get into the playoffs.

[Dig Dig]

Don't be stupid.

 

14 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 21 games would see Saints on 76 points.

 

76 points has been enough for the last 10 years to get into the playoffs.

 

just can't see this happening. we don't have a settled squad at the mo and recent form doesn't sugget that we will only lose twice plus making sure we don't draw too many. hopefully I am proved wrong

[Fitzhugh Fella]

Swindon Win Huddersfield Draw

 

So we are fourteen points from the play off as Huddersfield have a better goal difference

 

Could have been worse if Huddersfield had beaten Bristol Rovers

 

I think tonight's results probably finish off any realistic hopes. To think that even with the 10 points added back in we would still be 4 points away, says it all.

 

Concentrate on the Cups time, I think and also start planning for next season.