Just how realistic are the play-offs?

[derry]

Dave, I've seen you saying that before and that really worries me because I know how well you read these things, but the fact that we're still "in with a shout" probably says a lot about this division, eh?

 

Even allowing for us not playing the way most of us would like to see, and even allowing for the fact that we still have midfield issues to resolve, all we may need to do is hit the same PPG average that we've hit over the past eight games. Yes, that would be fluking it into the playoffs but I'd certainly take that. What happens if we get there is another story altogether.

 

We have made progress. From what I've seen and read, we have much more depth, we have more playing options, we are better placed to utilize width, the latest batch of signings should solidify us at the back, and Murty (who seems to be one of our keys) can't be far away from coming back. These changes should enable us to move things up a level or two.

 

I don't think there's another team in the division with that kind of "improvement package" at their disposal.

 

While I certainly bow to your opinion - because I know you and because you see the games - the optimist in me feels that we're not out of this yet.

 

No we are certainly not out of it but what concerns me with the present squad is the team selection. Pace is essential, we don't have it even worse we play the slowest player on the pitch wide right.

 

I have been told some of the players themselves have questioned Hammonds atributes, yes he wins the ball but he is a poor passer. Schneiderlin is a good passer but we need two players in the middle that can pass, tackle and have the pace to get beyond the strikers.

 

Over the years including the academy we have signed hardly anybody with pace we are now paying the price. If Stock or anybody else isn't quick we shouldn't sign them. I'm happy to give the three new guys time and think they may be the bedrock to build on.

 

We now have a four year plan to get to the Premier, slow players won't get us there and more importantly keep us there. It doesn't seem to me that pace is a priority for Pardew. It is for Wenger, Ferguson etc. I'm not talking Waigo/Walcott pace but quick not slow comfort zone players.

 

We have so many players that are relatively pedestrian that operate in their comfort zones we have to sign more pacy players.

 

Don't get me wrong Bill, we will win more than we will lose but we won't sweep all before us and if we want to be in the Premier for the 2015 season we have to start right now.

[Leicestersaint]

I think that making the play offis is very unlikely now - 4 wins in a row would change that though.

[VectisSaint]

The Play-offs are still a realistic possibility, if we consider 6th place as being the most we can expect. BUT, it is getting harder to see that we can do it, primarily because the top 6 seem to keep winning. Personally I still believe one or two of the teams there will falter, most likely Swindon, possibly Huddersfied, it really only needs one or two though. First and foremost it is imperative that we beat both of these when we play them, and there is no reason why we shouldn't at home. The teams above us all have to play each other still as well, so for instance good chance that Swindon can lose or draw to Leeds, Norwich, Charlton, Huddersfield, MK Dons, etc. For some reason the league fixtures recently seem to have been top half v bottom half and so the top teams seem to keep winning.

 

I think it will be difficult, but we will have a better view in 4 weeks say. we do need to start winning consistently again, but 14 wins between now and end of season should do it. We do urgently need someone else up front, to me that was as high a priority as defenders, to help Lambert. and we need creativity in MF, especially with Hammond out. If we can solve those 2 issues, then I am sure we could still do it.

[Thedelldays]

the way we could be going...we could be one of, if not the most expensive league 1 team ever....

 

anyway...I would say we have a chance if we are within 9 points with 10 games to go..

[Graffito]

Marginally less realistic than at 3pm yesterday before all the doom and gloom descended for having dropped 2 points.

[Legod Third Coming]

I do read some Bull crap on this site.

 

Can anyone name me a team in this division with pace to burn and width galore??

 

I didn't hear people complaining when we stuffed MK Dons and Walsall. So what's changed??

 

Losing two games to top six sides?

 

It's bonkers.

 

Pardew has a 46% win ratio from a standing start.

 

Feck me, what's a manager supposed to do.

 

And when did our fans become Flavio Briattori??

[derry]

I do read some Bull crap on this site.

 

Can anyone name me a team in this division with pace to burn and width galore??

 

I didn't hear people complaining when we stuffed MK Dons and Walsall. So what's changed??

 

Losing two games to top six sides?

 

It's bonkers.

 

Pardew has a 46% win ratio from a standing start.

 

Feck me, what's a manager supposed to do.

 

And when did our fans become Flavio Briattori??

 

Leeds, Norwich, Huddersfield

[Legod Third Coming]

Leeds, Norwich, Huddersfield

 

Norwich had no more pace than us in the two times they failed to beat us. Nor did Leeds who got lucky. We'll see what happens with Huddersfield in a few weeks.

[SFC Forever]

Mathematically possible but not an easy task. To do so we would need to start beating teams in the top 6 and we are not finding that very easy either.

[Andy_Porter]

 

Can anyone name me a team in this division with pace to burn and width galore??

 

 

We do, we just leave them on the bench.

 

There's nothing wrong at all with moaning because we're playing football which is too negative.

 

We spend a small fortune following Southampton around the country and we should expect a side which is going to go out and attack not a team playing for a draw in league one.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

Why have people become so impatient all of a sudden? I always thought the plan was for promotion 10/11?

[Thedelldays]

Why have people become so impatient all of a sudden? I always thought the plan was for promotion 10/11?

says who..?

not the club..not pardew..not cortese...who said this..?

[Deppo]

You're back! Thank god.

[Thedelldays]

You're back! Thank god.

not too sure how many user names you have racked up...but hey ho

[Legod Third Coming]

We do, we just leave them on the bench.

 

There's nothing wrong at all with moaning because we're playing football which is too negative.

 

We spend a small fortune following Southampton around the country and we should expect a side which is going to go out and attack not a team playing for a draw in league one.

 

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

We should expect a team that WINS.

 

When others complained about 4-5-1, I asked them to look at the score...

 

But no, all the experts want 4-4-fecking-2... because it is 'more attacking', more attacking my arse!

 

I just want us to win. If our defence had done it's job and not played like the Ted Bates Statue on Saturday all this would be immaterial...we would have three points not one.

 

If we attack and lose every game 5-4 you will be the first to complain, trust me!

 

The last month has been tough because we've lost two and drawn one, such are the current standards. On Boxing Day we beat Exeter 3-1 and yesterday they beat Leeds 2-0. That's football.

 

We haven't played like Brazil because we're a bloody League One football team. Some games we will win handsome, others we will win ugly.

 

I don't give a s h i t which, let's just win.

 

Last 8 games, won 5 drawn 1 lost 2. Not the end of the world yet is it??

[Deppo]

Take it to a mod then, delldays, if you think I have too many usernames.

[Whitey Grandad]

I have always thought that we would finish just outside the playoff places but a strong run of wins might just allow us to scrape in. To say that we would be the only club to have spent £3m and not get promoted ignores the -10 penalty, and let's not forget that we sold McGoldrick for £1m and Surman for £1.5m. This team is a work in progress and it will take some time to get consistency. Promotion this season would be a big bonus, but I don't suppose that the new owner or management would have epected it back in August.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

says who..?

not the club..not pardew..not cortese...who said this..?

 

Me, I ****ing said it!

 

Has it slipped peoples' minds that we started on minus 10?! Let's get some ****ing perspective! That was a huge handicap to overcome, given that Pardew had, what, 2 weeks before the start of the season to sort out the previous shower of ****e?

 

To finish in the play-offs this season shouldn't have been 'expected' by anyone and if it was they were truely niave. Of course I would like to see Saints promoted, but I'm a realist, and realise that the league robbed us of 10 points to begin with at the start of the year. I will happily take a top half of the table finish this season.

[Thedelldays]

Me, I ****ing said it!

 

Has it slipped peoples' minds that we started on minus 10?! Let's get some ****ing perspective! That was a huge handicap to overcome, given that Pardew had, what, 2 weeks before the start of the season to sort out the previous shower of ****e?

 

To finish in the play-offs this season shouldn't have been 'expected' by anyone and if it was they were truely niave. Of course I would like to see Saints promoted, but I'm a realist, and realise that the league robbed us of 10 points to begin with at the start of the year. I will happily take a top half of the table finish this season.

it is all well and good you getting upset..but the club think differently, they want a big season..they want the playoffs until it is mathmatically not possible..they want to win the JPT, they want to go as far as possible in the FA cup..

[explorer saint]

Sorry not jusdt results we are not playing well enough to reach the play offs I'm astounded people ignore that

[Whitey Grandad]

it is all well and good you getting upset..but the club think differently, they want a big season..they want the playoffs until it is mathmatically not possible..they want to win the JPT, they want to go as far as possible in the FA cup..

And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that attitude. I would expect it every season from now on.

[It's There]

It is a slim chance to get into play off spot, but AP is right to declare it and aim for it. I do think our odds are about right at 7 to 1 because this year there are actually, relatively speaking, some "big" teams in this league . Next season should actually be easier...but I don't want to wait that long!

[Saint Fan CaM]

I said it at the beginning and I'll say again now because nothing has changed. It was a massive ask to get into the play-offs with the handicaps facing the team - we've had a good stab, but I still think it will ultimately be too much. Level playing field in terms of points and a good summer of development will see us dominate the top of the table next season I feel.

[ghq]

The problem is that people take the present to be the norm all the time.

 

Billionaire takes over - We're going to spend big and win the League

Poor start to the season - We are stuck in another relegation fight

Great run of early winter form - The playoffs look highly likely

We sign more player in January - Anyone who thinks we wont make a playoff spot is a negative budgie.

We draw in a tough away match to playoff opposition - Playoff chances gone, even the odd murmur of relegation.

 

We just have to accept that our form will fluctuate. The playoffs are unlikely and always have been. I said that before we went to Leeds, I'm saying it now and I will still be saying it if we win the next 5 games. They are a target, but shouldn't be the yardstick for success this season.

 

I agree with your point of view.

It is still mathematically possible to reach the play offs and although I'm not overly confident of Saints achieving this, I do believe that if they do, then it becomes a whole different situation. Here's hoping.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Sorry not just results we are not playing well enough to reach the play offs I'm astounded people ignore that

 

People on here keep telling me they don't care how we play and/or that it doesn't matter anyway - I on the other hand favour your point of view .

[NickG]

next four results (not performances!) will tell a lot!

[Fitzhugh Fella]

Bill, if you watched this team regularly despite a decent return you would be pulling your hair out.

 

We are a long way from being a decent never mind a good footballing side. I do think that under this manager pragmatism and caution are the basis, not irresistable fast attacking football, with pace a must.

 

We might fluke it into the playoffs but even this side needs rebuilding to be a force. From now on no player that lacks pace should be signed. We are slow all across the midfield and up front, Waigo is very quick and Antonio is reasonably quick but plays head down and seems purely an impact sub unless we can turn him into a centre forward.

 

Lambert and Lallana lack pace but have some very good qualities but all the others need replacing. The central midfield flatters to deceive with two players who between them hardly equal one. None of our midfielders break through the strikers and the two players with pace sit on the bench.

 

There is so much wrong that needs putting right.

 

Spot on post, very accurate assessment. I will be very surprised if we even get close to the play-offs. We just aren't playing well enough.

[Wycombe Saint]

I must admit that after saturdays result it is going to be very hard, however i am trying to look at the positives.

 

A good end to the season, a trip to Wembley (maybe,) a World Cup to look forward to in the Summer (along with checking here every 5 minutes for transfer news,) and then a good strong start to the season with a united, optimistic fan base! I can dream!

[doddisalegend]

Of course even if we reach the play offs we still might not get promoted. A lot of people seem to be working on the playoffs = promotion theroy. So how will people cope if we make (somehow) the playoffs and fall at the last hurdle?

 

What will be more important. Winning the playoffs playing awful football or getting knocked out playing amazing, pacey and flowing total football?

 

If we make the playoffs and don't win them will people call for Pardews head? will it be success or failure considering where we were at the seasons start?

 

If we don't get promoted this year how many people will do themselves in? Personally I don't think league one is as bad as I thought would be at least I can afford to see my team play down here. Another season in year one won't be the worst thing ever IMO.

[St_Tel49]

says who..?

not the club..not pardew..not cortese...who said this..?

 

It was declared at the start of the season that we have a 5 year plan to get to the Premiership. I read that as 2 years to get out of League 1 and 2-3 to get out of the Championship. If we were to achieve promotion this year it puts us ahead of the plan. We should certainly try but in my OP I tried to show that the hard numbers are against us. Others have been saying that if we go on a winning run then we might still do it. True, but that is ignoring my core point that we have to win 4 MORE games than the top six sides. THAT is the part I am questioning.

[HK_Phoey]

Not sure I know how to post a link but here goes

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html

 

Football365.com have us finishing seventh based on current form until the end of the season.

 

Interestingly enough they have Norwich, and Charlton going up automatically with Leeds, Colchester and Swindon and MK Dons in the play offs. They predict we will be some 7 points of sixth place.

[HK_Phoey]

Not sure I know how to post a link but here goes

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html

 

Football365.com have us finishing seventh based on current form until the end of the season.

 

Interestingly enough they have Norwich, and Charlton going up automatically with Leeds, Colchester and Swindon and MK Dons in the play offs. They predict we will be some 7 points of sixth place.

 

Sorry got that wrong Huddersfield in sixth not MK Dons

[Glasgow_Saint]

next four results (not performances!) will tell a lot!

 

Last four results told alot too!

[hutch]

True, if we had to play Leeds, Colchester and Millwall away again another 5 times this season, I would be less confident about getting to the play-offs too.

[John B]

Sorry got that wrong Huddersfield in sixth not MK Dons

 

Thank you very interesting

[VectisSaint]

Of course even if we reach the play offs we still might not get promoted. A lot of people seem to be working on the playoffs = promotion theroy. So how will people cope if we make (somehow) the playoffs and fall at the last hurdle?

Fair point. The play-offs though were the only realistic possibility from the start. The fact is that IF we make the play-offs now it will be because we have been on a terrific run of form, probably having just won 14 or more of our last 21 games. When you come into the play-offs situation on the back of that sort of form, there is evidence that the momentum continues for a further 3 games - this is the unfairness of the play-offs, frequently a team finishing 6th gets promoted over a team that has done better over a full season. In our case it would actually be a little more deserved because of where we started. Personally if we get beaten in the final at Wembley I will put it down as a successful season, especially if it is our second trip there of the season.

[NickG]

Not sure I know how to post a link but here goes

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html

 

Football365.com have us finishing seventh based on current form until the end of the season.

 

Interestingly enough they have Norwich, and Charlton going up automatically with Leeds, Colchester and Swindon and MK Dons in the play offs. They predict we will be some 7 points of sixth place.

 

good link -will be interested to see that in about 4 -5 games.

[Saint Without a Halo]

I guess that the point I am trying to make is that we have become dependent on the others failing. It could happen, but I resigned to the fact that, on the balance of probabilities, it won't..

 

No there are to many others ahead for them all to fail! it is mainly down to us and our ability to string a top spot type of promotion run together winning another 14 to 16 games and we may just sneak into 6th! if we do that we have a chance as with the exception of Leeds Norwich and Charlton I cant see anyone else capable of doing it particularly as they all have threadbare squads in terms of suspensions and injuries!

 

So possible but so far unlikely 8 wins in the next 10 and it could become more likely!

[martyg1950]

At the beginning of the season the play-offs were never a possibility for this year. It is only because of the speed of the changes that Pardew and the new management were able to bring to the situation that over the holiday season, people began to imagine it might be. It takes time to mature a side and meld them together into a consistent winning unit.

 

When I think back to where we started this season, our club hours from liquidation, a rag bag of the squad, which left unchecked were odds on for relegation, a brand-new manager with barely 2 weeks to try and turn things around, and a welcome gift from the football league of the 10 point deduction. Frankly, I have to pinch myself continually to believe that things have changed as much and as dramatically as they have. The glass is definitely half full!

 

Yes, we recklessly lost two points at Millwall on Saturday, yes, we lacked pace in key positions, yes, we lacked maturity and key skills at certain times, and definitely yes, we rode our luck and, if life was in any way fair, probably should have lost that game 3-1.

 

In our current position in the play-offs are still a possibility, Pardew says we have to win two out of every three games now in order to achieve that. If we do make it, that would be a massive achievement from where we started. Even if we do make the play-offs though, everyone here knows what a massive lottery the play-off finals really are.

 

With regards to keeping our good players should we fail, well that's the malaise of the modern game is it not? On my cynical days, I see it as our mercenaries versus their mercenaries, the days are long gone of local town lads versus local town lads-with the odd notable exception. Pardew talks a lot about signing players who will be with us for the journey. So I presume that he's comfortable that most of the guys he's signing are committed for the long haul.

 

I know, that as a saints fan of 46 years standing, I actually have confidence in the future of our club now that hasn't been there for the longest time.

Edited 18 January, 2010 by martyg1950
Typo and layout

[del boy]

It depends - not bad if you're really there but not so good if you're just watching on telly

[Andyb1]

says who..?

not the club..not pardew..not cortese...who said this..?

 

EVERYONE said this. They have since said that promotion is a "TARGET" of course its a target.

[Glasgow_Saint]

says who..?

not the club..not pardew..not cortese...who said this..?

 

Nobody has said this - the club is ambitious.

 

Some of our fans are not.

[scotty]

personally could live with another season in league 1 if its building for the future, concerns are though;

 

1) keeping hold of players like Schneiderlin, Lallana, Lambert if we are still in league 1

 

2) not being able to stuff skates in CCC next season!

 

This has been raised by others but I'm not so sure, at least about the new boys. They must have been aware of the -10 situation when they signed and realised that promotion this season was pretty unlikely, and as for the Lallanas and Morgans, well, theres a recession on.........I would have thought that we're in a better position to be paying them a decent wage than a hell of a lot of other clubs above us, look at the financial ruin being wreaked all over the shop and some of the fire sales going on. We seem to be pretty stable financially, plus theyre playing in a decent stadium drawing good crowds, and for a club that has its sights very clearly set upwards.

[S-Clarke]

Nobody has said this - the club is ambitious.

 

Some of our fans are not.

 

There's being ambitious, and then there's being realsitc.

 

i'd like to think the majority of our fans are being realstic and looking at the situation with prespectiive, based on the start we had and our current distance from the playoffs. (which i think has given us a little too much to do)

[Glasgow_Saint]

There's being ambitious, and then there's being realsitc.

 

i'd like to think the majority of our fans are being realstic and looking at the situation with prespectiive, based on the start we had and our current distance from the playoffs. (which i think has given us a little too much to do)

 

We will be the only team to spend £3 million and fail to get promoted.

 

AP's first achievement?

[NickG]

Why have people become so impatient all of a sudden? I always thought the plan was for promotion 10/11?

 

Not sure Pardew has said that, he only said target was to over come -10, then out of relegation zone, and think latest was to be within 9 points of play offs by the end of January.

[NickG]

they have spoken about 5 year plan to prem - so how that 5 years is spent is open to interpretation

[Charlie Wayman]

We have some very tough games ahead and so far have not been able to eat anybody in the top 8 home or away so my personal opinion is that it will be impossible to make the play-offs. Our new team will need time to settle which of course is a luxury we do not have anymore.

 

It is also becoming more evident that Alan Pardew does not know which is his best eleven players in their best positions so the chances of getting back to a settled side and a 8 or 9 game run without chopping and changing things around. we'll need to win half a dozen at least on the trot just to close the gap to the play-offs and that doesn't look very likely any time soon.

 

Another more worrying concern is the initial signs that AP is losing touch with reality and becoming delusional as reflected by his post-match reaction to the Millwall game where we were totally outplayed all afternoon, yet he tries to insist that we were "unlucky to drop two points". That sounds to me like preparing his excuses ahead of today's review meeting with Mr Cortese. Let's be real, it can't be easy admitting to spending £3-4 million on players and still be in the parlous state we were before, no better, no worse.

 

"So Mr Pardew, exactly when will I be seeing a return on my investment?"

[NickG]

think the unlucky to drop was referring to fact that there were seconds to go, and we were winning

[doddisalegend]

Our new team will need time to settle which of course is a luxury we do not have anymore.

 

Depends on weather you feel we have to go up this season or not. I never thought promotion was realistic this year. Results have gone better than I (and I suspect a few others thought) which gave a glimmer of hope that we might sneak it. I think the reality was that this season was/is just a big pre-season for next year that being the case we've got plenty of time to put a good team together. We've had such a bad few years many people want things to turn around really quickly (back in the EPL in two years ?). The truth is Leeds have taken what three(?) years to get where they are. why do people think we should be any different? I'm sure we will get back to the promised land of £40 tickets and being pumled by the Arse/Manure/Chelesa in five years time, but I'm really in no hurry.