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Our Chances?


Mr X

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NOT making the playoffs now would be a let down

 

Hmm, don't know. So far the new regime has over-achieved, especially when you consider the sticky time at the beginning of the season, where AP's new winning approach was slowly being adopted by the players. 28 points [really 38] is not bad at all. Just imagine where Saints would be if Pardew had been able to come in earlier to make his mark. They may well have carried something like the present form from the start..? And that means the top 2 or 3 area.

 

So far, I've given evidence to suggest that not making the playoffs would be a let down. But all this is ahead of the schedule. This is the change around/settling in season, and the next one is the promotion one. In that case, I don't think it'll be a let down if we miss the playoffs. But it is entirely possible that we won't, in any case. If we do make the playoffs, then we'll have to win them. If, having got there, anything less will certainly be a let down.

 

Do you see what I'm getting at..? :rolleyes:

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After just hearing about Cortese's interview on Solent, it sounds like we are going to try and buy our way out of this league come January. That is a whole new ball game and cannot see us not making the play off's. It is very important we keep in the hunt until we get new players in, especially against Colchester. After that, it should be plain sailing. If we fail to gain promotion, I am pretty certain Cortese will look at this as failure.

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i want us to win the JPT, get to the play offs and win them, and win the FA cup ...and pompey to get relegated, and a suprise announcement for southampton to be a world cup host city and add another tier to one of our stands, with nicola cortese proclaiming on the radio 'southampton has a population circa 250 k people' a 32,000 seater stadium isnt enough ....only then will i be happy ;)

 

lmao

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1) Can we make the playoffs?

 

2) Do you think we will?

 

3) Do we need to make the playoffs for you to be happy or is mid table satisfactory progress considering the ten point deduction?

 

Yes

 

Because from April the 5th till the seasons end we have 7 very winnable games, Charlton at home on the 10th and B Rovers away 13th with massive support and momentum to carry us home.It will be great just like when we got promoted back to the old div 1.

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I don't think we're all THAT good. A playoff quality team, but we need to be top two quality to make the playoffs. I don't think we're as good as Leeds or Norwich yet.

 

I'm not afraid of failure, I just wouldn't consider it a failure.

 

I don't think it's too big a chasm to breach, I just think it is unlikely.

 

7 points in 23 games doesn't sound a lot, but we've only made up 3 in our last 23 games.

 

Not really, we were 16 points off the play offs when I started a post to that effect once we started winning after around 11-12 games. Therefore we have made up nine points in roughly 10 games.

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It will be clearer at the end of January after we have played against other promotion rivals.

 

 

However making up ten points if Swindon/Huddersfield win their outstanding games is going to be difficult but not impossible.

 

We have 38 points from 23 games we probably need the at least ten more from the next 23

Edited by John B
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Yes, we can make the play offs

 

50/50, I believe more week on week that we will.

 

As long as we finish on a total that would see us in the play offs without a points deduction, I could say we have had a reasonably successful season. Considering where we were in June, and considering the start to the season and also our 05/06 season in the Championship where we finished 12th, this would be a fine achievement.

 

IMO, promotion must be achieved in 2011 at the latest...

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It is nearly always the case that one team comes from no where tomake the playoffs - if you add the 10 points on we are one of the top six teams in the league after 23 games, but in effect it took 5or 6 games to get going as AP had to reshape the team. We play all the teams again and have leeds,Charlton, Huddersfield at home, along with the likes of Swindon.

 

These are all six pointers and as long as we stay clear of injuries and suspensions we should easily make the play offs, we really should have more points in the bag by now but that was pre the new winning mentality that AP has installed into the lads - we just need tokeep winning or getting a result from the next game in front of us and as long as we are in the top ten with ten games to go we will breeze into the play offs

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If within 5-6 games to go we are within a shout of play offs I'll be happy. By that point there are normally 4 or 5 sides going for a couple of remaining play off spots. That means we need to be about 8th (at least) by April 10th when we play Charlton at home and with 6 games to go.

 

Looking a the league table we are 5 points from 8th and given current form (of the last 3 months) we should make that up or we would have had a bad January/february/ march.

 

So yes anyhing less than being very very close to play offs by the end of the season will be dissapointing.

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It will be clearer at the end of January after we have played against other promotion rivals.

 

 

However making up ten points if Swindon/Huddersfield win their outstanding games is going to be difficult but not impossible.

 

We have 38 points from 23 games we probably need the at least the

 

same same from the next 23

 

Another 38 points would leave us way short of the play-offs,cos we'd only have a total of 66. We need about 45/48 points and maybe even 50.The 6th placed

club must be looking at 75/76 just now seeing that they have already half of that,be it Swindon or Huddersfield,don't forget that if Swindon win 1 of their 2 games they'd be above MK who would become 6th with Huddersfield or BR breathing down their necks in 7th and 8th but still on 37 or 38 points.

MK Dons might start to splutter but with 2 other clubs ready to take their place it will be hard for us.We have 23 games left, we need to win 14 or 15 of them and get a couple of draws.

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I don't think we're all THAT good. A playoff quality team, but we need to be top two quality to make the playoffs. I don't think we're as good as Leeds or Norwich yet.

 

I'm not afraid of failure, I just wouldn't consider it a failure.

 

I don't think it's too big a chasm to breach, I just think it is unlikely.

 

7 points in 23 games doesn't sound a lot, but we've only made up 3 in our last 23 games.

 

Completely agree. I'm sure we did a poll earlier in the season about where people would be happy with us ending up etc. Peoples views have definately changed it seems. Also I know we are only 7 points of the playoffs at the moment but other teams have games in hand etc. I still think we can push for the playoffs and hopefully can get there, but I do not think this season should be classed as a failure if we dont make it. Our form recently has been exceptional and it is very hard to maintan that. If we dont make the playoffs i'll look at our poor start as costing us, not the games from now until the end of the season, unless we dont make any progress.

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Play-offs are easily in target, 7 points with 20 games left when you have a billionaire in charge should be no problem. A couple of quality signings in January and we should romp it in the second half of the season.

 

The problem is the play-offs are a lottery, if we reach them it's a 1 in 4 chance so the odds are still against us going up IMO.

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Play-offs are easily in target, 7 points with 20 games left when you have a billionaire in charge should be no problem. A couple of quality signings in January and we should romp it in the second half of the season.

 

The problem is the play-offs are a lottery, if we reach them it's a 1 in 4 chance so the odds are still against us going up IMO.

agree with that....getting into the playoffs should not be a huge problem now...unless we are worried at the might of swindon..

 

once there..who knows..

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The fact that we have still to play:

 

Norwich, Charlton, Leeds, Huddersfield, Colchester, Swindon and MK Dons means that you can adjust the difference between the gap by 3 points in each case.

 

If we lose that game, well that's down to us, but the opportunity is there to reduce the difference by 3 points to each of the above mentioned. Regardless of other results that is a great opportunity to gain ground.

 

Then, each of those teams must play one another too - so they cannot always win when we can.

 

Our only objective is to win every game and see where we end up.

 

My money is on 3rd. (although my real money is on winning the league and being promoted...!)

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The next five are tough games - Colchester (A), Huddersfield (H), Millwall (A), Swindon (H) & Brentford (A).

 

Would be nice to go unbeaten through that little run, and pick up at least a few wins, the first two are probably the most important two for us to win.

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Play-offs are easily in target, 7 points with 20 games left when you have a billionaire in charge should be no problem. A couple of quality signings in January and we should romp it in the second half of the season.

 

The problem is the play-offs are a lottery, if we reach them it's a 1 in 4 chance so the odds are still against us going up IMO.

 

The gap to the play-offs could still be a maximum of 10 points looking at the games in hand of Huddersfield and Swindon. However, I still think that can be overcome over 23 games, especially with all those teams still to be played.

 

I believe our chances of winning the play-offs would be better than 1 in 4, should we actually make them. Bearing in mind the possible new arrivals shortly, in addition to a first team that should be better than play-off rivals. Although I accept the element of luck that comes into play. But the semi is over two legs.

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The fact that we have still to play:

 

Norwich, Charlton, Leeds, Huddersfield, Colchester, Swindon and MK Dons means that you can adjust the difference between the gap by 3 points in each case.

 

If we lose that game, well that's down to us, but the opportunity is there to reduce the difference by 3 points to each of the above mentioned. Regardless of other results that is a great opportunity to gain ground.

 

Then, each of those teams must play one another too - so they cannot always win when we can.

 

Our only objective is to win every game and see where we end up.

 

My money is on 3rd. (although my real money is on winning the league and being promoted...!)

 

 

The trouble with this arguement is that our games against Leeds,Charlton and Norwich won't change anything for them.They already have enough points to coast into at least the play-offs failing automatic promotion (which will be the case for at least one of them) We need to take points off them but they will still not sink to a position outside the top 6.Our games against MK Dons,Huddersfield,Bristol Rovers and Colchester (not to mention Swindon)

are more important as far as taking points off them is concerned.3 at home and 2 away, trouble is they can come to SMS for a point and be happy with it.If that sort of side park the bus then we might struggle.

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The gap to the play-offs could still be a maximum of 10 points looking at the games in hand of Huddersfield and Swindon. However, I still think that can be overcome over 23 games, especially with all those teams still to be played.

 

I believe our chances of winning the play-offs would be better than 1 in 4, should we actually make them. Bearing in mind the possible new arrivals shortly, in addition to a first team that should be better than play-off rivals. Although I accept the element of luck that comes into play. But the semi is over two legs.

 

If we get to the play-offs we will win them, but getting there is not so certain.

The gap is still way too big,if we win tomorrow I might revise my opinion but not until then.I still think our central defence is too weak against big,fast strikers with a bit of skill.We need to score early tomorrow to make them come at us and leave us room to play in midfield.

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If we get to the play-offs we will win them, but getting there is not so certain.

The gap is still way too big,if we win tomorrow I might revise my opinion but not until then.I still think our central defence is too weak against big,fast strikers with a bit of skill.We need to score early tomorrow to make them come at us and leave us room to play in midfield.

how good do you think this league is

 

 

we will make the playoffs...swindon, brizzle rovers simply do not have the spending power, manager and players we have

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I believe our chances of winning the play-offs would be better than 1 in 4, should we actually make them. Bearing in mind the possible new arrivals shortly, in addition to a first team that should be better than play-off rivals. Although I accept the element of luck that comes into play. But the semi is over two legs.

 

I would say that Norwich would be favourites to win the play-offs, even if we didn't have the 10 point deduction they would be 7 clear of us, even Colchester would be above us.

 

Anyway it's not always the best team that wins the play-offs, they are a lottery, one dodgy penalty or daft own goal can mean season over.

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I think it'll be a lot easier to assess our chances after the next 4 games:

 

Colchester A

Huddersfield H

Millwall A

Swindon H

 

I fully expect us to win our home games there, and a couple of draws away, possibly a win at Milwall. I think 8 points out of those games would be a very good return going into an 'easier' run in, considering we've got the added distractions of FA cup and JPT ties.

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The trouble with this arguement is that our games against Leeds,Charlton and Norwich won't change anything for them.They already have enough points to coast into at least the play-offs failing automatic promotion (which will be the case for at least one of them) We need to take points off them but they will still not sink to a position outside the top 6.Our games against MK Dons,Huddersfield,Bristol Rovers and Colchester (not to mention Swindon)

are more important as far as taking points off them is concerned.3 at home and 2 away, trouble is they can come to SMS for a point and be happy with it.If that sort of side park the bus then we might struggle.

 

Only Swindon and Huddersfield are at home - and frankly I can't see either parking the bus as it's not how they play, Huddersfield especially.

 

MK Dons, Colchester and Bristol Rovers are all away where I would be surprised if they adopted defensive tactics.

 

To me, it doesn't matter who we play or how they set out, we should have enough fire power to beat them.

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At the start of the season I wouldnt have said this, but as things stand, if we dont make the play offs, we'll have under achieved IMO. We all said, 'one game at a time. Claw back the -10. Move out of the bottom 4. See where we are at Christmas.' Well here we are. 12th at the halfway point in the season despite a poor start. We're better than most of the teams ahead of us. More consistent than them, and picking up more points than them. 7 points is nothing over 23 games.

 

Plus...the transfer window is about to open. We are a massively attractive club for players in and around this league, and money wont be in short supply. Pards said he struggled to sign some big players in the summer because of the uncertainty surrounding the season ahead, but now I'll wager those players will be calling him and begging for another opportunity.

 

Can one of the pessimists please tell me...What is stopping us??????

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At the start of the season I wouldnt have said this, but as things stand, if we dont make the play offs, we'll have under achieved IMO. We all said, 'one game at a time. Claw back the -10. Move out of the bottom 4. See where we are at Christmas.' Well here we are. 12th at the halfway point in the season despite a poor start. We're better than most of the teams ahead of us. More consistent than them, and picking up more points than them. 7 points is nothing over 23 games.

 

Plus...the transfer window is about to open. We are a massively attractive club for players in and around this league, and money wont be in short supply. Pards said he struggled to sign some big players in the summer because of the uncertainty surrounding the season ahead, but now I'll wager those players will be calling him and begging for another opportunity.

 

Can one of the pessimists please tell me...What is stopping us??????

 

In theory I totally agree with you but in reality things can and usually go wrong especially if the pressure on getting to the play offs mount.

Edited by John B
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Can one of the pessimists please tell me...What is stopping us??????

nothing

 

right now, Leeds are better than us and Norwich and Charlton also pretty good..

 

I reckon Huddersfield will be in the playoffs..but colchester and swindon..along with brentford, brizzle and millwall..?

 

are they better than us..?

 

no

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I think most fair minded observers will agree that while our recent results are still good in the main we haven't actually being playing very well recently - should that trend continue sooner or later it'll catch up with us and we'll drop points when you wouldn't think we should .

 

That 7 point gap to the play-off places is tantalisingly close , just over the horizon as it were but it'll be the work of weeks (probably months) before we close that gap completely . If and when we do make the play-off places then the real pressure will be on the team for the first time this season - and we'll all see just how good we really are .

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I think most fair minded observers will agree that while our recent results are still good in the main we haven't actually being playing very well recently - should that trend continue sooner or later it'll catch up with us and we'll drop points when you wouldn't think we should .

 

That 7 point gap to the play-off places is tantalisingly close , just over the horizon as it were but it'll be the work of weeks (probably months) before we close that gap completely . If and when we do make the play-off places then the real pressure will be on the team for the first time this season - and we'll all see just how good we really are .

 

The other side of that coin is that sooner or later we will start playing well...Still think somebody is going to get a proper spanking before the end of the season from us...

 

As for the playoffs, as rightly pointed out, it probably isn't 7 pts but 10pts to make up (the likelihood of Swindow losing BOTH their games in hand is pretty low to be honest). Howerver, having still said that we do still have to play everybody directly above us. From now till end of January is going to tell us alot about what our aspirations for the season will be - somebody mentioned 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws) over our next 4 games but if we look from the Colchester to Stockport game then a minimum of 4 wins and 2 draws is achievable (with 5 wins and 1 draw not impossible).

 

Yes to making the play-off

Yes to thinking we will get there

No to it not being a disaster if we don't. I'm still enjoying the ride.

 

COYR

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The other side of that coin is that sooner or later we will start playing well...Still think somebody is going to get a proper spanking before the end of the season from us...

 

As for the playoffs, as rightly pointed out, it probably isn't 7 pts but 10pts to make up (the likelihood of Swindow losing BOTH their games in hand is pretty low to be honest). Howerver, having still said that we do still have to play everybody directly above us. From now till end of January is going to tell us alot about what our aspirations for the season will be - somebody mentioned 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws) over our next 4 games but if we look from the Colchester to Stockport game then a minimum of 4 wins and 2 draws is achievable (with 5 wins and 1 draw not impossible).

 

Yes to making the play-off

Yes to thinking we will get there

No to it not being a disaster if we don't. I'm still enjoying the ride.

 

COYR

 

I agree. If we're playing poorly and winning every week, God help our competition when we click!!!

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1) Can we make the playoffs?

 

2) Do you think we will?

 

3) Do we need to make the playoffs for you to be happy or is mid table satisfactory progress considering the ten point deduction?

 

1) Certainly

 

2) Yes

 

3) Probably, I think the team has come on at an extraordinary rate of progress and we are on a par with Charlton and Norwich and I can only see us getting better. I'm predicting us vs Norwich in the play-off final.

 

If we don't finish in or marginally outsidethe playoffs I'll be disappointed

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they got a better start that's all.

Our first 6 games were catastrophic, since then we're as good as anyone.

 

Our first six games were a foundation - that's the difference.

 

We were lucky not to become detached.

 

But in hindsight, the results were not a disaster when you look at where the teams we played are currently in the league. Had Pinnacle not cost us the entire pre-season we could be in the playoffs now and then some!

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Our first six games were a foundation - that's the difference.

 

We were lucky not to become detached.

 

But in hindsight, the results were not a disaster when you look at where the teams we played are currently in the league. Had Pinnacle not cost us the entire pre-season we could be in the playoffs now and then some!

 

I'm sure we all expected more than 4 points from the first 6 games though.

Including the players and the management team.

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I'm sure we all expected more than 4 points from the first 6 games though.

Including the players and the management team.

 

Possibly. Depends what Pardew thought he was going to inherit and the reality of what he did inherit.

 

Like Lancashire playing at centre back and no left back to speak of...

 

Can you imagine life without Jaidi, Trottman or Harding back there now... scary thought!

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I don't think it's fair to simply look at the season with just the minus ten in mind. In my opinion we must also consider our lack of pre-season when looking at the progress we make and trying to calculate where we will end up.

 

Take off the first ten games, games in which we were still finding our feet, and in 13 games we have earned 29 points. That is an average of over 2.2 points per game. If we were to keep up this ratio we will gain about another 51 points; easily enough to see us comfortably inside the playoffs if not the top 2.

Obviously there are going to be slip ups and dips in performance, and we are not likely to get quite that many more points, but I feel something would have to go majorly wrong for us not to be in the top 6 by the end of the season.

Edited by for_heaven's_Saint
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Possibly. Depends what Pardew thought he was going to inherit and the reality of what he did inherit.

 

Like Lancashire playing at centre back and no left back to speak of...

 

Can you imagine life without Jaidi, Trottman or Harding back there now... scary thought!

 

No doubt he thought he'd get far more out of Saga than he actually did.

I mean the blokes got a good pedigree,he just wasn't up for 3rd Division football.

These are Pardew's word after the defeat at Swindon

 

"We looked nervous once we conceded the goal but we got better as the half went on and started to dominate.

 

"The second half I felt we kind of bossed the second half a little bit and we had some good chances and once you get the goal you think you can go on and win the game, that's how I see it but we just couldn't get the goal."

 

 

And yet we had Lambert,Rasiak and Saganowski at our disposition.

Come now, tell me you wouldn't expect Saga,Rasiak and Lambert to be able to score 1 goal against Swindon.We were poor at the start of the season and it may cost us a play-off place. 4 points from Millwall,Stockport,Swindon,Huddersfield,Brentford and Carlisle (was it?)

is p*ss poor and no matter what happened pre-season we should have done better with the players at our disposition.It's been corrected but it took too long.

 

NB Harding has played all League games hasn't he, he was certainly on the pitch against Swindon,

Edited by Window Cleaner
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No doubt he thought he'd get far more out of Saga than he actually did.

I mean the blokes got a good pedigree,he just wasn't up for 3rd Division football.

These are Pardew's word after the defeat at Swindon

 

"We looked nervous once we conceded the goal but we got better as the half went on and started to dominate.

 

"The second half I felt we kind of bossed the second half a little bit and we had some good chances and once you get the goal you think you can go on and win the game, that's how I see it but we just couldn't get the goal."

 

 

And yet we had Lambert,Rasiak and Saganowski at our disposition.

Come now, tell me you wouldn't expect Saga,Rasiak and Lambert to be able to score 1 goal against Swindon.We were poor at the start of the season and it may cost us a play-off place. 4 points from Millwall,Stockport,Swindon,Huddersfield,Brentford and Carlisle (was it?)

is p*ss poor and no matter what happened pre-season we should have done better with the players at our disposition.It's been corrected but it took too long.

 

How many goals did Rooney and Giggs score against Fulham last week??

 

Football is not a science.

 

Sometimes you can throw all the best ingredients together and make Pot Noodle. Sometimes you think you've got bugger all in the fridge but can make a glorious pasta salad.

 

There's no doubt we all wanted more points in those first six games but you have to accept the manager was using them as the pre-season he didn't have, seeing who could play and where. I don't doubt he was also expecting better from some of the players he had.

 

If you don't like it blame Rupert Lowe and Barry the Briefcase...

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How many goals did Rooney and Giggs score against Fulham last week??

 

Football is not a science.

 

Sometimes you can throw all the best ingredients together and make Pot Noodle. Sometimes you think you've got bugger all in the fridge but can make a glorious pasta salad.

 

There's no doubt we all wanted more points in those first six games but you have to accept the manager was using them as the pre-season he didn't have, seeing who could play and where. I don't doubt he was also expecting better from some of the players he had.

 

If you don't like it blame Rupert Lowe and Barry the Briefcase...

 

 

 

Fulham are a good side though, probably better than Man U pound for pound.

(By that I mean Man U have better players but perhaps don't get a much out of them as Hodgson does from his cheapies)

Rooney is overated and Giggs is old, way too old.

Man U are nothing without Ronaldo, well not so much anyway.

Wait till Morgan starts playing for Fulham, see how good he really is--oh what a giveaway;);)

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Fulham are a good side though, probably better than Man U pound for pound.

(By that I mean Man U have better players but perhaps don't get a much out of them as Hodgson does from his cheapies)

Rooney is overated and Giggs is old, way too old.

Man U are nothing without Ronaldo, well not so much anyway.

Wait till Morgan starts playing for Fulham, see how good he really is--oh what a giveaway;);)

 

Agreed on all the above but hope you are wrong about Morgan!!!!!!

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i want us to win the JPT, get to the play offs and win them, and win the FA cup ...and pompey to get relegated, and a suprise announcement for southampton to be a world cup host city and add another tier to one of our stands, with nicola cortese proclaiming on the radio 'southampton has a population circa 250 k people' a 32,000 seater stadium isnt enough ....only then will i be happy ;)

 

I like your style. Slightly hard to please..? ;)

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