Wes Tender Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos the teams around us will typically be winning not losing). It is too easy to make a sweeping generalisation like this. On our current form, we have either beaten or drawn against most of the teams above us in the table. Equally, they will be playing each other too and taking points off each other. Additionally, there are lower down teams that will also beat the teams above them, just as Brighton did to us. There are teams like us that are creating a head of steam and rising up the table, just as there will almost certainly be other teams who have got off to a flying start, but who will hit the buffers, possibly because of lack of depth in their squads, injuries to key players and suspensions. It is like a marathon and we started in last position, but are moving strongly up the field towards the halfway mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 So if :- E = The amount of points we need M = The amount of points we have C = The rate at which we are gaining points Are we going to get into the play offs or not? You forgot to include Dark Matter, the impact on the timeline from the Large Hadron Collider and MOST importantly the complete absence of any sign of an I or S in your equation (Injuries or suspensions) Namely that Rickie is showing some strain already and looks like he could do with at least a week off, and while we have an excellent striker in Connolly, our style of play is such that any loss of Lambert for a week or two to injury or suspension would leave a major hole in our playing style. Think that is a far easier way to look at things rather than lies damned lies and statistical analysis stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 ... we started in last position ... We were still in the changing rooms. I think we'll find the second half of the season easier than the first. We'll be "up for it" against teams that got a result against us (beat us or drew) to prove a point. And I think we'll find it easier second time round against teams we've already beaten. Home or away? It doesn't matter. Wouldn't want to be in Brighton's shoes on April Fool's Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintbletch Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Your concept is misguided, although I admire your efforts! To see how we have performed so far (the point of this thread) you add 10 points on. It really is as simple as that. The 10 points are a brute fact. At any given stage in the season our total will be 10 points less than the acummulated points won so far by the team. "Pro rata" is a complete and utter nonsense in terms of informative value. Agreed. A pro rata deduction would only matter 'in theory' if it's possible that the league campaign will finish prematurely. And if that were to happen, well I suppose you never know, then it will be the current league position at that time that will be taken. That total will already include all of the 10 points deduction. So computing a pro rata deduction is pointless. (no pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 I sort of see what he means though! To get in the play-offs (6th position) we have to win 10 points more than the 7th place team at the end of the season, therefore need an extra point every 4.6 games. To be on course, at the midway point we need to be 5 points behind the current 6th place team. 2 months ago, I wouldn't have given us any chance of that but on current form, we won't be too far off come 5 pm Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 What a load of bollix this thread is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmel Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Rupert Lowe was not the one that put the club into administration, it was out of his hands. The creditors called in the debt. No they didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then. Sorry this is wrong, if they only apply it at the end (when from where I am sitting its already applied...) tehn teh only true measure of how we are performing is the ACTUAL points we have scored before the -10 is applied - this gives a true reflection of performance as the points deduction is an ARTIFICIAL reducer and is NO indicator of performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jam Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then. Surely if you want to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to not count the deduction at all? After all, the deduction is a penalty not a reflection of performance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Surely if you want to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to not count the deduction at all? After all, the deduction is a penalty not a reflection of performance... Indeed, by that measure we are performing very well at the moment, but we had a poor start. I have seen comments on here to the effect that it is a disgrace that were still in the relegation zone in November, when clearly that was an artificial situation which would not have lasted. By adopting the method I suggested, which is merely another way of interpreting our situation at the moment, one can get an idea of where we would finish the season if all the teams were to continue with the same average form that they have shown so far. If one or two find this concept difficult to understand, then please feel free to ignore it. Alternatively you could wait another three games when we shall be at the halfway point in the season, and, just to get some idea of how we are doing that also takes into account the effect of the points deduction, see what the table looks like with us having -5 applied. Think of it as a mid-term assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Landrew Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then. Whilst that reads quite well, and undeniably makes some valid points, the simple fact is, is that Saints have accumulated 32 points this season, so far, 10 of which have been removed. We would be in the play-off places right now, but for the 10 point deduction. The truth is Whitey, is that you may have failed to read the title of the thread, and first line of the author's post, which suggests that Saints would currently be in a top 6 berth if the 10 point penalty hadn't been applied. But taking up your point about the league table; we can judge Saints against other teams, but acknowledge the innaccuracies of an incomplete table. It's something we cannot control, as the test has to continue until sometime in May 2010. But there really is no need for formula, or averaging out, or waiting until the season ends. The table becomes more accurate with each passing round of matches. Yes, at this point, the league table does lie, and won't tell the full truth until the end of the season. But we can only go on what we know so far. Try the BBC predictor, as I did. I tried to be rigorous in my judgement, using the form of teams up until now as guides. For Saints, I used their form from a few matches in, as I think it has been acknowledged, we were not up and properly running by week one of the season. I know this can't be relied upon, as form goes up and down, as variables come into play, e.g. injuries, illness, opponents, etc.. but it was worth the tedious exercise. We make the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Indeed, by that measure we are performing very well at the moment, but we had a poor start. I have seen comments on here to the effect that it is a disgrace that were still in the relegation zone in November, when clearly that was an artificial situation which would not have lasted. By adopting the method I suggested, which is merely another way of interpreting our situation at the moment, one can get an idea of where we would finish the season if all the teams were to continue with the same average form that they have shown so far. If one or two find this concept difficult to understand, then please feel free to ignore it. Alternatively you could wait another three games when we shall be at the halfway point in the season, and, just to get some idea of how we are doing that also takes into account the effect of the points deduction, see what the table looks like with us having -5 applied. Think of it as a mid-term assessment. This is its not that its a difficult concept to understand - its quite simple but ultimately flawed, because when we get to 23 games, we wont have a -5 points applied but a -10 as we have had from the START of the season, doing it your way in no way gives and indication of real form or our real position because our current REAL position is 15th and include -10 points. If we carry on in the same level of form as are are at the moment (Points per game average for games 1-10 = 0.9 Very bad, but games 11-20= 2.3 PPG) eg at 2.3 per game for the remaining 26 games we will finish on 81-82 points - the only questions that matter are: 1.) can we maintain a 2.3 points per game average (will eb very tough) 2) will 81 points secure a playoff place - (75 should do it I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 (edited) Indeed, by that measure we are performing very well at the moment, but we had a poor start. I have seen comments on here to the effect that it is a disgrace that were still in the relegation zone in November, when clearly that was an artificial situation which would not have lasted. By adopting the method I suggested, which is merely another way of interpreting our situation at the moment, one can get an idea of where we would finish the season if all the teams were to continue with the same average form that they have shown so far. If one or two find this concept difficult to understand, then please feel free to ignore it. Alternatively you could wait another three games when we shall be at the halfway point in the season, and, just to get some idea of how we are doing that also takes into account the effect of the points deduction, see what the table looks like with us having -5 applied. Think of it as a mid-term assessment. LOL at you continuing to peddle the "it's my jolly clever concept other people just don't understand" line. Most of us have a perfectly good grasp on how we are doing in reality without pretending we've only had 5 points deducted, or 0.21 per game or whatever nonsense you are trying to manufacture. You are overcomplicating a perfectly simple league table with a formula that doesn't need to exist and aids no-one's understanding. Without the minus ten, we'd be sixth. We'd be the sixth best team in the league. On recent form, we're doing even better. We need title winning form here on in to have a chance of making the play-offs. No-one needs to pretend we've only had 5 points deducted at Christmas to understand this. You're over-thinking a problem that simply isn't there. PS - how many leagues do you know where all the teams simply "continue with the same average form they've shown so far". Have you ever even followed a football season before? Edited 7 December, 2009 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Thanks for the balanced analyses, I was merely offering an alternative veiw of our situation which took into account our deduction. Take it or leave it at your pleasure (or not). My thinking is along your lines, St Landrew, in that a playoff position is achievable if we continue with the same good form but to paraphrase Sam Goldwyn, we shall all have passed a lot of water by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Landrew Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 As mentioned before in my previous post, I did the Beeb's Predictor just this last weekend, using form guides, and allowing for the odd minor hiccup from every team. Unfortunately, the HDD, on which I stored the image, was a trifle dodgy, so I haven't been able to post it up before. I've managed to retrieve it now though. Please bear in mind, that one or two matches, from the calender, having been called off, have yet to be re-arranged, and are not available in the BBC Predictor as yet. Therefore, this table is incomplete, but I've kept it, as the remaining matches do not alter the situation significantly enough to change the prediction; that is, that Saints could lose those two remaining matches and still be where they are in the table; and no other team can make inroads on them. Make of the table what you will, as it was merely an academic exercise, on my part. It is no more or less valid than anyone elses prediction. Interestingly, how did Charlton overhaul Leeds..? I don't know, but perhaps it illustrates how, in-error, the current table is. Or perhaps this is just a load of bollix. Which seems a bit more likely. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonManager Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Play Norwich in the play-offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericofarabia Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 What a load of bollix this thread is lol Are you casting doubt on Einstein's E = mc2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Are you casting doubt on Einstein's E = mc2 Ah! Funny you should say that. It is only the first term in the expansion of a binomial expression and hence an approximation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St_Tel49 Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 LOL at you continuing to peddle the "it's my jolly clever concept other people just don't understand" line. Most of us have a perfectly good grasp on how we are doing in reality without pretending we've only had 5 points deducted, or 0.21 per game or whatever nonsense you are trying to manufacture. You are overcomplicating a perfectly simple league table with a formula that doesn't need to exist and aids no-one's understanding. Without the minus ten, we'd be sixth. We'd be the sixth best team in the league. On recent form, we're doing even better. We need title winning form here on in to have a chance of making the play-offs. No-one needs to pretend we've only had 5 points deducted at Christmas to understand this. You're over-thinking a problem that simply isn't there. PS - how many leagues do you know where all the teams simply "continue with the same average form they've shown so far". Have you ever even followed a football season before? I propose Whitey as new Head of the UEA Climate Unit ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 As mentioned before in my previous post, I did the Beeb's Predictor just this last weekend, using form guides, and allowing for the odd minor hiccup from every team. Unfortunately, the HDD, on which I stored the image, was a trifle dodgy, so I haven't been able to post it up before. I've managed to retrieve it now though. Please bear in mind, that one or two matches, from the calender, having been called off, have yet to be re-arranged, and are not available in the BBC Predictor as yet. Therefore, this table is incomplete, but I've kept it, as the remaining matches do not alter the situation significantly enough to change the prediction; that is, that Saints could lose those two remaining matches and still be where they are in the table; and no other team can make inroads on them. Make of the table what you will, as it was merely an academic exercise, on my part. It is no more or less valid than anyone elses prediction. Interestingly, how did Charlton overhaul Leeds..? I don't know, but perhaps it illustrates how, in-error, the current table is. Or perhaps this is just a load of bollix. Which seems a bit more likely. : I'd settle for that. Every season it seems that the team that starts off racing ahead at the top of the table has a sticky spell and gets overhauled, and this year it could be Leeds. Whatever the outcome if we do get to the playoffs we would probably find ourselves facing the likes of Norwich, Charlton, Leeds or Huddersfield and certainly no foregone conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 I propose Whitey as new Head of the UEA Climate Unit ;-) Ooh, don't get me started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick1579 Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 good old saints fans. even when things are going really well, we'll find things to squabble about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Whatever the outcome if we do get to the playoffs we would probably find ourselves facing the likes of Norwich, Charlton, Leeds or Huddersfield and certainly no foregone conclusions. Hopefully we would arrive at the play-offs having reached a position within striking position of them by the time of the January transfer window. We will then have invested in a few extra players to strengthen the squad and add depth to protect against injuries and suspensions. Arriving at the play-offs in that state, it will not be a foregone conclusion that we will prevail and be the best of the four teams with us, but certainly the impetus and confidence we will have accumulated will be telling factors in our favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 It's certainly better looking up than down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsaint Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 What's wrong with trying to assess if we are currently on track to have a serious crack at the playoffs. Whitely's formula, which recognises that we are effectively docked a point every five matches is perfectly sensible. Two other measures - purely for fun and speculation, which is the point after all. The greatest gap to sixth was 17 points after the Colchester game on 5th September so in three months we have made back 8 points - this bodes very well. The greatest gap to first was 26 points after the Norwich game on Sepetmber 29th - it is now 24. But the gap had opened up to 24 points as early as the Colchester game on the 5th September so in the three months since then we have kept pace with Leeds and made back 4 points on Charlton. Which is another way of saying, we had a crap August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsaint Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Sorry Norwich game on 21st NOVEMBER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 7 December, 2009 Author Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Ah! Funny you should say that. It is only the first term in the expansion of a binomial expression and hence an approximation.... Can we please stick to the important things such as how to calculate the present value of a points penalty (deduct it from total)? Much more important than the structure of space time. This thread has actually raised an interesting question out of the pro rata school of thought, which is this: If the League season is actually truncated (ie a team ceases to exist -possible if, for example, they have unserviceable short-term liabilities, a succession of owners without funds to invest, a convoluted ownership structure and debts to the treasury - ), would the penalty be reduced on a pro rata basis to reflect the fewer number of matches? I suspect not but in principle, it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lets B Avenue Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Are you casting doubt on Einstein's E = mc2 I prefer Big Audio Dynamite's version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 (ie a team ceases to exist -possible if, for example, they have unserviceable short-term liabilities, a succession of owners without funds to invest, a convoluted ownership structure and debts to the treasury - ), That's much too hypothetical. We should restrain ourselves within the bounds of the possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Can we please stick to the important things such as how to calculate the present value of a points penalty (deduct it from total)? Much more important than the structure of space time. This thread has actually raised an interesting question out of the pro rata school of thought, which is this: If the League season is actually truncated (ie a team ceases to exist -possible if, for example, they have unserviceable short-term liabilities, a succession of owners without funds to invest, a convoluted ownership structure and debts to the treasury - ), would the penalty be reduced on a pro rata basis to reflect the fewer number of matches? I suspect not but in principle, it should be. I think If a team ceases to exist then all the other teams have their points and goals gained against them removed, meaning the adjusted league table reflects a world where said club never existed in the first place. So everyone would have fewer number of matches, so it would even itself out anyway. And it wasn't a pro rata penalty, it was a flat ten point deduction. So it's a "no" from me I think we should ban the phrase pro rata from this forum forthwith. It is getting slightly annoying now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Landrew Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 What's wrong with trying to assess if we are currently on track to have a serious crack at the playoffs. Whitely's formula, which recognises that we are effectively docked a point every five matches is perfectly sensible. Absolutely nothing wrong. However, the author of the thread was alluding to the simple fact that Saints would indeed be in the top 6 if they had not been docked 10 points. Nothing more, nor less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanthemanfairoak Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 I prefer Big Audio Dynamite's version.what a great band they were:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the saint in winchester Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Hey! We are only 9 points from the play-offs.. Why is nobody excited about that? Because we're only 2 points off relegation zone. When it's the other way around - 9 points from relegation place, 2 points from playoff place, then I'll get excited. Emotion management :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokie Posted 7 December, 2009 Share Posted 7 December, 2009 Debating to enter in on this, but the first post has to happen sooner or later... Another way of looking at it the way Whitey does, you project to the end of the season, based on points per game. Of course, Saints are deducted 10 by the end of the season. (You may all decide for yourselves when exactly that occurs, but we all must agree that its there at the end, right?) Based on that, Saints are 11th. Team GP GD Pts PPG Est Final pts Leeds United 19 27 46 2.42 111 Charlton 20 18 42 2.10 97 Norwich 20 18 38 1.90 87 Colchester 20 15 36 1.80 83 Swindon 18 2 31 1.72 79 Huddersfield 20 19 32 1.60 74 Bristol Rovers 20 -3 31 1.55 71 Walsall 20 4 30 1.50 69 MK Dons 20 -2 30 1.50 69 Millwall 20 6 29 1.45 67 Southampton 20 10 22 1.60 64 Hartlepool 20 1 26 1.30 60 Carlisle 20 -3 24 1.20 55 Yeovil 20 -4 23 1.15 53 Southend 20 -4 23 1.15 53 Gillingham 20 -5 22 1.10 51 Exeter 20 -6 22 1.10 51 Brentford 20 -6 22 1.10 51 Leyton Orient 20 -11 22 1.10 51 Oldham 20 -10 21 1.05 48 Brighton 20 -14 20 1.00 46 Wycombe 20 -13 17 0.85 39 Tranmere 20 -21 17 0.85 39 Stockport 19 -18 14 0.74 34 Worth noting the Saints gained 0.9 ppg in the first 10, but 2.3 ppg the last 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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