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Possible Promotion Rivals


John B

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Yup. Only 12 points away (?)

 

I bet if we had a 'normal' season and were 12 points away from the relegation zone at this stage of the season we wouldn't feel 'safe'. A simple reverse of that logic suggests that 12 points is achievable ground to make up.

 

Really.

 

My target for Saints is to finish 12 points from the relegation places and 12 points from the play offs. The absolute last thing we want to do is crash and burn for the 6th place and write off our chances for next season. Patience will be rewarded and a midtable finish will be a great achievement provided we can offload about 15 squad players bring in another 4 or 5 whilst retaining the core of our first team for an assualt on the L1 championship next season which incidentally is the only trophy we should consider winning until we have won it. Not interested in anything else but the league championship and games in anything else should be treated as an opportunity for fringe players to prove their worth to Pardew, starting with effect from the 2nd December 2009.

 

It will be a massive folly if Pardew plays, Lambert, Jaidi, Hammond, Lallana, Hardy or Murty in the Disney cup against Norwich - a cup because in football fantasy world we are all winners really and it's nice to have a cup for the little teams. Dreadful competition that serves no purpose whatsoever. Bad enough we are taking part in it let alone trying to win the thing and at what expense? At the moment our cup policy is guaranteed to scupper any lingering hopes of promotion.

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Walsall have only lost one at home all season.

 

To win is a big ask. A draw is the more likely.

 

If we are to achieve the play off's this is one of the games that we need to win.

 

You start off by saying that a draw would be a good result, then saying we need to win to make the play-offs?

 

 

Where does it say that ? He has a point though, we do need to win these sort of games if we are to make the play offs.

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My target for Saints is to finish 12 points from the relegation places and 12 points from the play offs. The absolute last thing we want to do is crash and burn for the 6th place and write off our chances for next season. Patience will be rewarded and a midtable finish will be a great achievement provided we can offload about 15 squad players bring in another 4 or 5 whilst retaining the core of our first team for an assualt on the L1 championship next season which incidentally is the only trophy we should consider winning until we have won it. Not interested in anything else but the league championship and games in anything else should be treated as an opportunity for fringe players to prove their worth to Pardew, starting with effect from the 2nd December 2009.

 

It will be a massive folly if Pardew plays, Lambert, Jaidi, Hammond, Lallana, Hardy or Murty in the Disney cup against Norwich - a cup because in football fantasy world we are all winners really and it's nice to have a cup for the little teams. Dreadful competition that serves no purpose whatsoever. Bad enough we are taking part in it let alone trying to win the thing and at what expense? At the moment our cup policy is guaranteed to scupper any lingering hopes of promotion.

 

 

I agree with your last paragraph, but why would we crash and burn trying to reach 6th ? With that logic we will crash and burn next season trying to get automatic promotion.

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Leeds, Norwich and Charlton will definately be in the top 6.

Huddersfield are likely to aswell. So that leaves 2 spaces.

MK Dons, Bristol Rovers and Swindon are nothing to worry about. So that leaves Walsall, Colchester and Millwall, hopefully we can cross Walsall off that list by Saturday evening.

So in summary I think we will be competing with Millwall and Colchester as long as we beat Walsall.

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Leeds, Norwich and Charlton will definately be in the top 6.

Huddersfield are likely to aswell. So that leaves 2 spaces.

MK Dons, Bristol Rovers and Swindon are nothing to worry about. So that leaves Walsall, Colchester and Millwall, hopefully we can cross Walsall off that list by Saturday evening.

So in summary I think we will be competing with Millwall and Colchester as long as we beat Walsall.

But that's nearly half the division! :eek:

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In my previous post I some how forgot about Charlton, revised info is:

 

'Just for a bit of fun' if the last 8 game form is applied to the end of the season then the final table is:

 

1 Leeds 112pts

2 Norwich 99pts

3 Charlton 90pts

4 Huddersfield 85pts

5 Walsall 84pts

6 Millwall 80pts

7 Swindon 79pts

8 SAINTS 76pts

9 Colchester 74pts

 

So Saints just miss out according to this, however I can't see Walsall or Swindon carrying on with their recent good form or Bristol Rovers and MK Dons with their poor form so could come back into contention, so as long as Saints can carry on with their recent form we will be in with a chance of the playoffs. Ifs, buts and maybes !!

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Yup. Only 12 points away (?)

 

I bet if we had a 'normal' season and were 12 points away from the relegation zone at this stage of the season we wouldn't feel 'safe'. A simple reverse of that logic suggests that 12 points is achievable ground to make up.

 

Really.

 

Very valid point , hard to see it happening, but you never know..........

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I agree with your last paragraph, but why would we crash and burn trying to reach 6th ? With that logic we will crash and burn next season trying to get automatic promotion.

 

Too much to soon Mick, IMO and whilst we have the basis of a great team there are still areas of weaknesses and that puts strain / pressure to perform on those already doing very well. Great teams are not built overnight and require solid foundations and the fact that we nearly didn't exist less than 6 months ago we are asking to much of some of our key players and manager to deliver it all in one go. IMO many fans have loss sight of this season's beginnings and to coin it a 'slow start' is the best example of an understatement you are likely to find.

 

Pardew has said the squad needs to be cut in size and we could easily lose ten players and buy in a few to cover areas of exposure. We are unlikely to do that this season and if (big if) we crept into 6th and failed in our promotion quest the air of doom and gloom would hang over the club, not unlike Burley's failed play off attempt and we all know what happened the following season. Crash and burn compared to level of expectation.

 

I would rather we build patiently and with mid table expectations otherwise its bit like equipping yourself for walk up Ben Nevis in a pair of flip-flops. There is an outside chance you will do it but at what price the state of your feet?

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I agree with you..

 

as stated, I reckon if we are within 9 points from the top 6 with 10 games to go (we are 12 points with 20-odd games to go) then there is no reason with this team that we cant get there come the end of the season

 

27 league games left, after Exeter we will be half way through the season.

 

We should be aiming for play offs this season, anything below 8th and i'll be really disapointed. We've shown already this season we're better than most in this league and hope Pardew strengthens again in January.

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27 league games left, after Exeter we will be half way through the season.

 

We should be aiming for play offs this season, anything below 8th and i'll be really disapointed. We've shown already this season we're better than most in this league and hope Pardew strengthens again in January.

 

It's not Pardew's decision and we can only hope he makes a good case to Mr Cortese to bring in cover in key areas. As I keep saying nothing will happen except maybe loans in if the current squad cannot be cut back signifcantly and Pardew if anything realy needs to make an effort to ship out the dead wood on a permanent basis.

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It's not Pardew's decision and we can only hope he makes a good case to Mr Cortese to bring in cover in key areas. As I keep saying nothing will happen except maybe loans in if the current squad cannot be cut back signifcantly and Pardew if anything realy needs to make an effort to ship out the dead wood on a permanent basis.

 

 

If we are 8 points from playoffs by the end of this month, then maybe Mr Cortese will be more willing to let Pardew get in who he wants.

 

I still believe this squad will be dismantled next year if we miss out on promotion and it will be hard to find better replacements for some of them.

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It's just a shame we don't play any of the teams immediately above us from now until Christmas (except Leeds). It'd be easier to get to mid-table if we were beating (and therefore catching up/overtaking) one of the teams above us each time we won. Nevertheless, if we win every game up to Christmas, with perhaps the exception of Leeds, where a draw would be good, then beating Exeter on the 26th might just nudge us into the top half, which then would put us in excellent shape.

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These are the teams we are competing with:

 

Colchester, Huddersfield, Bristol Rovers, Walsall, Millwall, MK Dons, & Swindon

 

Every time one of them fails to win our chances of making the play offs increases. Head-to-heads with these teams should be considered as 6-pointers.

 

Out of the seven teams listed, I think Huddersfield are too strong not to finish 4th or 5th, while I can't see Walsall sustaining their form (they have an appauling Dec/Jan fixture list, which will probably see them drop out of contention). MK Dons are on awful form at the moment, if this is their purple patch then they have a strong shout, but if things don't improve soon I think they will miss out.

 

If we're still in the chase in March, I imagine it will be Colchester, Rovers, Millwall and Swindon we will be hoping slip up.

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I can see us falling into 6th place if we can keep up the form of the last 6 weeks and we beat the promotion chasers in the head to head matches, because all the other sides will take points off each other.

 

Ideally, for Saints to make the play-offs, what we want are utterly dominant Leeds, Charlton, Norwich, Huddersfield, Colchester (and most importantly Saints) sides beating all the teams not in the top 5. This will allow us to get into the playoffs with a lower total than is usual, because of the top teams taking all the points, with us in excellent form and with the -10 less important than it should be. Then it's just a matter of beating 2 teams who've been in great form all season to go up... :o

 

For now I'll settle for Leeds and Norwich stuffing everyone who isn't us and the rest beating each other.

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We should be winning them all.

 

Can't see any reason to fear Millwall after the first game of the season, we've come a long way since then.

 

Sorry, but they looked very good in that game. Lots of movement off the ball, pacy players, massive CBs....the formula for success in League One. It will be a very tough game, and I certainly won't be EXPECTING a win.

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If we are 8 points from playoffs by the end of this month, then maybe Mr Cortese will be more willing to let Pardew get in who he wants.

 

I still believe this squad will be dismantled next year if we miss out on promotion and it will be hard to find better replacements for some of them.

 

I think this is largely true whether we'er promoted or not.

 

Whilst we no doubt want to build over time, it might be considered likely that Jaidi, Perry (age), Trottman (back to Preston), Murty (age/injury), Lallana (sold), Connolly (injury), Papa (doesn't stay for some reason) can't be relied upon to be stalwarts next season. I might have done some of the older guys a disservice there and hopefully they will be raring fit and keen to play on but whatever happens this season it seems likely that we still need to conduct major surgery again either next summer or in January if the market allows.

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If we are 8 points from playoffs by the end of this month, then maybe Mr Cortese will be more willing to let Pardew get in who he wants.

 

I still believe this squad will be dismantled next year if we miss out on promotion and it will be hard to find better replacements for some of them.

 

I don't share that belief Mick and feel that this squad are together with the aim to get promoted next season. Both Pardew and Mr Cortese have been quite clear with that plan and I can only assume the players have been brought together on that basis. If we don't make it in May 2011 then I would agree with you except that I don't believe it would be any harder that for any other club in getting in suitable replacements.

 

Unless the squad is trimmed significantly I am certain we will not buy any players and deviate from the current plan whether we are 8 points off or 1 point off. What we don't want to do is get promoted and have such a massive coast basis in the CCC that we can't afford to strenghten and then get relegated back to L1.

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It's just a shame we don't play any of the teams immediately above us from now until Christmas (except Leeds). It'd be easier to get to mid-table if we were beating (and therefore catching up/overtaking) one of the teams above us each time we won. Nevertheless, if we win every game up to Christmas, with perhaps the exception of Leeds, where a draw would be good, then beating Exeter on the 26th might just nudge us into the top half, which then would put us in excellent shape.

 

That would mean playing most teams twice before Christmas or we could have played the lower teams when we were at our most weak and in theory could actually be routed in the relegation zone.

 

Was Norwich or Brighton or Orient a missed opportunity? Your post makes no sense.

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It's just a shame we don't play any of the teams immediately above us from now until Christmas (except Leeds). It'd be easier to get to mid-table if we were beating (and therefore catching up/overtaking) one of the teams above us each time we won. Nevertheless, if we win every game up to Christmas, with perhaps the exception of Leeds, where a draw would be good, then beating Exeter on the 26th might just nudge us into the top half, which then would put us in excellent shape.

 

How are Leeds immediately above us?

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Seeing as there's a wodging great gap between 10th and 11th in the table at the moment I'm fairly confident that we won't be breaking into the top 10 until probably March, but that we're going to spend a large chunk of the time from now until the end of February somewhere near 11th place.

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Is it a lack of ambition or a desire to avoid disappointment that makes some downplay our chances of promotion? This seasons initial targets would have been to recover from -10 points, establish a competitive team and rebuild the club infrastructure. I'd say the club are well ahead of schedule. Our performances and results have improved continuously. Carry that on and we'll be in the play-offs. I can't see anything unrealistic with revising the seasons targets to include promotion a year ahead of schedule.

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