Forget the play offs?

[NickG]

betfair have us 8th favorites for promotion still this season.

[Glasgow_Saint]

betfair have us 8th favorites for promotion still this season.

 

More proof (if it was needed) that we are so far under-achieving.

Edited 22 November, 2009 by Glasgow_Saint

[Glasgow_Saint]

Charlton less our -10 = 10 points ahead

 

Norwich less our -10 = 6 points ahead

 

Their teams are, probably, better us all round. So they start from a better position than we do.

 

 

 

If you really believe that then you're effectively critising APs signings this season. The team we have now is APs team (2 or 3 left now from last season) while Charlton and Norwich are a mismatch of freebies and last seasons under-achievers.

 

What's it to be? Poor AP signings or we are not performing as we should be?

[Thedelldays]

If you really believe that then you're effectively critising APs signings this season. The team we have now is APs team (2 or 3 left now from last season) while Charlton and Norwich are a mismatch of freebies and last seasons under-achievers.

 

What's it to be? Poor AP signings or we are not performing as we should be?

 

dont forget norwich started the season so well and had their manager in place longer than we have....

[CB Saint]

At the risk of being provocative....

 

Now that most people have written off the chance of reaching the play offs, who is glad we fielded a full strength side in the last JPT game?

[EastleighSoulBoy]

If you really believe that then you're effectively critising APs signings this season. The team we have now is APs team (2 or 3 left now from last season) while Charlton and Norwich are a mismatch of freebies and last seasons under-achievers.

 

What's it to be? Poor AP signings or we are not performing as we should be?

 

I refer the honourable gentleman to this which I said earlier

 

.............

 

Pardew has done well with what, at the time, was a limited time frame. I suspect that some of his acquisitions, and some incumbents, are not living up to his expectations. He needs time to move them on and build a stable team that will see us not only through a promotion but onward to stability in the CCC.

 

What are you looking for us to do? Spend millions? Attain promotion with the current squad? If yes, are they good enough to maintain us through a CCC season without relegation?

 

Somewhere, inbetween spending millions and buying a few better players, lies the answer.

[Glasgow_Saint]

I refer the honourable gentleman to this which I said earlier

 

Ooh im surprised! So you feel AP will be disappointed "not living up to his expectations" by some of his signings?

 

Which ones?

 

I would say that the signings so far have been decent.

[CB Fry]

It's worth noting that it took Leeds three years to get into the position they are now.

 

 

Didn't they get into the play offs in their first season from a 15 point deficit?

 

(PS. I know the answer, and it's yes they did.)

[EastleighSoulBoy]

Ooh im surprised! So you feel AP will be disappointed "not living up to his expectations" by some of his signings?

 

Which ones?

 

I would say that the signings so far have been decent.

 

Again, may I refer you to the use of the words highlighted and italicised.

 

I think that the signings seem to have done well so far, I'm a little concerned with Trotman but my concerns are not necessarily Pardew's. Conversely, I really am getting to like Harding and his input while Connolly is a revelation to me. That's why AP is the manager and I'm just an ordinary guy on the street. I used the term I suspect because he (AP) will quickly identify any qualities lacking in individuals and whether they can be remedied by working on them or, ultimately, shipping them out of the club. He may well be happy with them all? However, as any manager would testify, he probably has his eyes on better players elsewhere. Players who may well fit in with his plans more so than others already here. AP is not afraid to admit his errors as we have seen in post match interviews.

 

Don't take this wrong, I think we have a good team. Yes the players could always be better but I'm realistic enough to know that we'll not get the likes of Essien et al to play in this division. My fear is that if we get promoted will this team be able to stabilise in the CCC. I think they would struggle and we would need reinforcing very quickly. Whether that could be achieved in a close season (albeit a better one than last time around) would remain to be seen.

 

..........

 

Just to take a long hard look at the players we have and to discard those not in our long term plans.

 

Pardew has done well with what, at the time, was a limited time frame. I suspect that some of his acquisitions, and some incumbents, are not living up to his expectations. He needs time to move them on and build a stable team that will see us not only through a promotion but onward to stability in the CCC.

 

[John B]

Unlikely but after the 3 1 Victory it still could happen

 

 

 

but we want teams like these to lose or draw as many games as possible

 

Huddersfield

MK Dons

Swindon

Bristol Rovers

Walsall

Millwall

[a1ex2001]

I'm not going to rule it out until it's mathematically impossible, same with relegation!

[ericofarabia]

LOL ... after the return to winning ways, I was wondering if the fred was going to continue Forget the play offs .... we are dead certain for a top 2 place

 

The way people posted way OTT after a defeat, putting us automatic relegation contenders again, a win must put as back in the promotion frame :cool:

 

It's a marathon, not a sprint, plenty more ups and down's this season yet f'sure

[SNSUN]

Don't forget the play-offs while they're still a possibility, but don't set sights on them either. If Pardew tells the team we can make the play-offs, if, or maybe when, it becomes mathmatically impossible, the team is likely to switch off and accept poor form towards the tail end of the season.

 

My idea would be that they should take each game as it comes. Looking into the future too far can only cause problems - the same for the fans, if we think we can make it into the play-offs, we'll be all the more gutted when we don't make it.

 

The way I tend to deal with all things Saints related is to not think that the best could happen - I'm always the happier when we do things right.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

LOL ... after the return to winning ways, I was wondering if the fred was going to continue Forget the play offs .... we are dead certain for a top 2 place

 

The way people posted way OTT after a defeat, putting us automatic relegation contenders again, a win must put as back in the promotion frame :cool:

 

It's a marathon, not a sprint, plenty more ups and down's this season yet f'sure

 

Absolutely spot on! I can't see us being either promoted or relegated.

 

It would be nice to be promoted but I'm still unsure whether we could stabilise without some additions/changes to the team.

[St Landrew]

I'm not going to rule it out until it's mathematically impossible, same with relegation!

 

I think that's the best idea.

[iansums]

Fact is we are 3 points further from the play-offs than we were at the start of the season. If you look at the final play-off place it will be approx. 75 points. For us to reach that total we will need 2.1 pts per game. If you look at our last 12 games where have been on a 'good run' we have got 22 pts (1.8 pts per game). This means we have to improve drastically to make the play-offs.

 

Personally, I think this is too much. The 10 point deduction and the poor start to the season will probably be too big a hurdle.

 

However, let's just enjoy the season and see how high we can get. Don't you just love statistics.

[Under Weststand]

As I've said from the start I think we need to take the steps 1 at a time, first we had to wipe out the 10 point penalty(took longer than I hoped or thought) but then we had no management infrastructure & AP had no pre season. We are now in the process of taking the next step of getting out of the bottom 4. I'd hope that by the turn of the year that we are comfortably lower mid-table, and a few points clear of the relegation zone. A couple of decent signings in Jan & we can push on towards the top 6, I've stated before I think we will come up just short of the play off's (hope we do just make it). But I think the run in will be very important to set down a marker for next season, by making teams fear us next year for a proper promotion Push.

[krissyboy31]

Fact is we are 3 points further from the play-offs than we were at the start of the season. If you look at the final play-off place it will be approx. 75 points. For us to reach that total we will need 2.1 pts per game. If you look at our last 12 games where have been on a 'good run' we have got 22 pts (1.8 pts per game). This means we have to improve drastically to make the play-offs.

 

Personally, I think this is too much. The 10 point deduction and the poor start to the season will probably be too big a hurdle.

 

However, let's just enjoy the season and see how high we can get. Don't you just love statistics.

 

I agree with this and can see us continuing at about 1.8 ppg. Without the 10 point deduction I would have predicted a 4th place finish (even with the start we made) but making up the deficit (IMO) was always going to be too much. I reckon we'll finish around 9th spot, 4 or 5 points short of the play-offs.

[Horley CTFC Saint]

Don't forget the play-offs while they're still a possibility, but don't set sights on them either. If Pardew tells the team we can make the play-offs, if, or maybe when, it becomes mathmatically impossible, the team is likely to switch off and accept poor form towards the tail end of the season.

 

My idea would be that they should take each game as it comes. Looking into the future too far can only cause problems - the same for the fans, if we think we can make it into the play-offs, we'll be all the more gutted when we don't make it.

 

The way I tend to deal with all things Saints related is to not think that the best could happen - I'm always the happier when we do things right.

 

At this stage of the season we should still be targeting automatic promotion - always aim high. If you accept mediocrity thats what you will get

[Tom28]

If you look at the maths:

 

Circa 75 points required for playoff spot based on previous seasons.

 

We are currently on 16 points. Therefore we need another 59.

 

We have 28 games left. 59 points from 28 games is 2.11 ppg.

 

From the last 8 games (when we appeared to finally get it together) we have yielded 17 points - an average of 2.13 ppg.

 

We played 4 teams in the top half and four teams in the bottom half of the table in those 8 games.

 

Basically, my point is this: if we continue showing the same form we've shown since Bristol Rovers at home, we will be there or there-abouts come playoff time.

 

I think the depth in the squad will actually generate even more points than the 59 we need (based on my assumption). All teams will get injuries, we've had one key one - Murty - for a while and we've covered. We've now got another key one, and we have a good replacement stepping in. Whilst a lot of you moan about the lack of depth and 'we need extra cover here, here and here', we are actually a lot lot better off than most of the other teams in this division. Take a look at the bench against Hartlepool. You could take those 7 players, give them to any one of 16-18 teams in this league, and they'd all start.

 

We'll be in the playoffs. And when we do get there, Pardew needs to be given a 5 year deal.

[dune]

At some point in this season we will be within 6 points of the play-offs and then it's game on. I reckon we can be there or there about by the end of January.

 

We've got some easy games coming up which need to win and a win away at Leeds would be a massive boost.

[West End Saint]

I have always thought play offs would be a stretch mid table & JPT final would do for me I am really enjoying this season home & away wouldnt mind a crack at this league with no points deduction.

 

I would be a happy camper if we did make the play offs & the way we are playing it is just about possible but what a difference to last season you just think every game we could win this even if we go a goal down happy days I am loving being a Saint.

 

I am really looking forward to Saturday away at Northampton 2nd round of the cup I am back in love with footy & my team.

 

COYS !

[Alanh]

I think that the last 8 league games (since Bristol Rovers at home) and the 18 points that we have earned in them is a benchmark for our season as that was when the team that is playing regularly now came together and started playing coherently. Assuming key players like Lallana, Lambert, Jaidi and James (for his versatility) don't get long term injuries I don't see any reason why we should not see a return of between 15 and 20 points for each block of 8 games that we play until the end of the season. We will lose and draw a few more games when the team doesn't click in a given match, but I think we'll win the majority from here on in.

 

That means picking up between 52 and 70 more points this season. 52 points would leave us on 68 so probably short of a play off place. 70 leaves us on 86 points and challenging for automatic promotion. Realisitically we will probably end up somewhere in the middle and 76 points sounds achievable as a middle ground. That would mean we can probably afford to lose another 5 or six games with the same number of draws.

 

This also illustrates that provided we maintain recent form this season will go down to the wire and we will have plenty to talk about as the season gets to April.

 

The key thing that will help us achieve the play-offs will be taking points off of teams above us. So if we are going to lose it would be better to do so against a team below us. In that regard if losing to Brighton (who I think will finish well below us at the end of the season) is compensated by a win against someone who should finish in the top 6 it should not be viewed as a disaster.

[iansums]

If you look at the maths:

 

Circa 75 points required for playoff spot based on previous seasons.

 

We are currently on 16 points. Therefore we need another 59.

 

We have 28 games left. 59 points from 28 games is 2.11 ppg.

 

From the last 8 games (when we appeared to finally get it together) we have yielded 17 points - an average of 2.13 ppg.

We played 4 teams in the top half and four teams in the bottom half of the table in those 8 games.

 

Basically, my point is this: if we continue showing the same form we've shown since Bristol Rovers at home, we will be there or there-abouts come playoff time.

 

I think the depth in the squad will actually generate even more points than the 59 we need (based on my assumption). All teams will get injuries, we've had one key one - Murty - for a while and we've covered. We've now got another key one, and we have a good replacement stepping in. Whilst a lot of you moan about the lack of depth and 'we need extra cover here, here and here', we are actually a lot lot better off than most of the other teams in this division. Take a look at the bench against Hartlepool. You could take those 7 players, give them to any one of 16-18 teams in this league, and they'd all start.

 

We'll be in the playoffs. And when we do get there, Pardew needs to be given a 5 year deal.

 

My maths were the same until this point. I think December will be an interesting: 4 supposedly easier games and two tough away games against teams in the top three. To keep on target we need a minimum of 4 wins and a draw. It's tough, but no reason why we can't get this.

[slickmick]

At the risk of being provocative....

 

Now that most people have written off the chance of reaching the play offs, who is glad we fielded a full strength side in the last JPT game?

 

 

If you had a choice between getting knocked out of the FA Cup and JPT in return for 6 points, which would you take ?

[EastleighSoulBoy]

If you had a choice between getting knocked out of the FA Cup and JPT in return for 6 points, which would you take ?

 

Love it, could we pick the games from which we could get the 6 points?

 

leeds A and Norwich A for instance?

 

Oh! I thought not.

 

Damn :smt093

[slickmick]

Love it, could we pick the games from which we could get the 6 points?

 

leeds A and Norwich A for instance?

 

Oh! I thought not.

 

Damn :smt093

 

 

Lol, forget Leeds, their not even on our radar. Colchester, Huddersfield, MK Dons and anyone else sniffing around 6th spot.

[master]

Don't forget we could lose players in the January window that could affect our push up the table

[Andy Durman]

My maths were the same until this point. I think December will be an interesting: 4 supposedly easier games and two tough away games against teams in the top three. To keep on target we need a minimum of 4 wins and a draw. It's tough, but no reason why we can't get this.

 

4 wins from 6 = 12 from 18. We will need 4 wins and a draw from every 6 games to achieve the play off's.

 

Not impossible, but a tall order.

[slickmick]

Don't forget we could lose players in the January window that could affect our push up the table

 

I think we are in a stronger position for hanging on to our players than many others in this league.

[Andy Durman]

4 wins from 6 = 12 from 18. We will need 4 wins and a draw from every 6 games to achieve the play off's.

 

Not impossible, but a tall order.

 

If we achieved the play-off's would this be the most wins in the history of Southampton?

[Alanh]

My maths were the same until this point. I think December will be an interesting: 4 supposedly easier games and two tough away games against teams in the top three. To keep on target we need a minimum of 4 wins and a draw. It's tough, but no reason why we can't get this.

 

I'd agree, although to do a real comparison you need to take the first two matches of January as well. If the target is 18 points, like the last 8 matches then we could lose the two tough away matches if we win the other 6. It would be good to get points against those teams in the top 6 though as it takes points off them. the two points Norwich dropped against us could be as valuable to us in our chase for a top 6 spot as the one we earned.

 

Based on recent form the only matches that I have some concern about us getting anything from are Leeds home and away, Norwich away and MK Dons Away.

[Glasgow_Saint]

Don't forget we could lose players in the January window that could affect our push up the table

 

Thanks. How are you?

[up and away]

At the risk of being provocative....

 

Now that most people have written off the chance of reaching the play offs, who is glad we fielded a full strength side in the last JPT game?

 

This is one thing I cannot see the logic in, even if we won the thing I would still have preferred 3 points against Brighton. We did only play Connolly and Schiederlin for a half, but that seemed too much for them on their subsequent showing. The one person that did seem to suffer was Hammond, our one and only engine in midfield. Connolly, Lallana and Lambert are great players, but we can still win if one or even two of them have an off day. If Hammond has an off day or becomes tired, everything starts to fall apart and the likes of Connolly, Lallana and Lambert no longer have a platform to strut their stuff.

 

It would not surprise me if we went up to Leeds and came back with something, equally it would not surprise me to see a midfield selection not turn up in one of the lesser games and cost us. The points we dropped against Brighton and Norwich could be very expensive come the final tally. I still don't rate Norwich as being a great side, they looked very good against us in a very exciting game. If Pardew could have his time again with that one I believe we would have 2 extra points from that game.

 

If an extra season in League 1 does not cost us players such as Lallana then maybe no real harm is done. But at the present I am not sure the priorities anre correctly lined up?

[Rod Le Shearer]

Fact is we are 3 points further from the play-offs than we were at the start of the season. If you look at the final play-off place it will be approx. 75 points. For us to reach that total we will need 2.1 pts per game. If you look at our last 12 games where have been on a 'good run' we have got 22 pts (1.8 pts per game). This means we have to improve drastically to make the play-offs.

 

Personally, I think this is too much. The 10 point deduction and the poor start to the season will probably be too big a hurdle.

 

However, let's just enjoy the season and see how high we can get. Don't you just love statistics.

 

 

I don`t think we`ll need 75 points this season to get to the play-offs. and I don`t think getting 2.1 pints on average is impossible either !

look at it this way: for every 4 games we play,we must win three,but can lose 1. that would give us an average of 2.25 points per game. this means there are room for a couple of draws in between..!

 

not impossible by any means...infact,thats no more than what I expect from the set of players we`ve got..COYR !

[Sold To The Man @ The Bar]

Don't forget we could lose players in the January window that could affect our push up the table

 

Don't forget we could buy players in the January window that could help our push up the table