Forget the play offs?

[ALWAYS_SFC]

That's about the size of it. But as for hyping this team to be good enough for the CCC is a stretch, maybe narrowly avoiding the drop then yes.

Considering we are the Chelsea of this division financially, I really feel we should be doing better than what we have just seen against Brighton and Norwich.

 

We have had big defensive issues from the start, exacerbated recently by the form of Connolly, with Pardew trying to get some form of defensive cohesion around playing him. These are Pardews players and he does not have what is required to make it work against the better teams. Pardew wants his cake and to eat it. Put all the best players out there and try and get those not natural to defending to do a job in that regard.

 

I still cannot get my head round Gillet playing every week and well in a league higher, playing in the defensive midfield position.

 

May be he has learnt to control a ball and not let it get 3-4 feet away

everytime.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

is it mathematically possible still? if it is why are people being so negative, if we go on a good run again and other teams start losing, all of a sudden people will be saying 'play offs' 'play offs' again ..

 

If we take 75 points as a reasonable play-off place target that means we need to gather an average of just over 2 points per game during our remaining 29 league fixtures .

 

We are currently averaging 1.3 points per game .

[John B]

8 games is a good form guide. Over the last 8 we have got 15 points. That is promotion form, and if we did that for the rest of the season we might make the playoffs. Certainly go close.

 

 

 

Perhaps that is promotion form but there are a lot of clubs with similar form way up the table from us and it will be virtually impossible to reach them

[Nexstar]

If we take 75 points as a reasonable play-off place target that means we need to gather an average of just over 2 points per game during our remaining 29 league fixtures .

 

We are currently averaging 1.3 points per game .

 

Since our turn in form (after bristol rovers at home) we've averaged 2 points per game, out of 14 matches.

[Window Cleaner]

If we take 75 points as a reasonable play-off place target that means we need to gather an average of just over 2 points per game during our remaining 29 league fixtures .

 

We are currently averaging 1.3 points per game .

 

 

Mathematically the play-offs are out of sight, they always were when we didn't wipe out the 10 point deficit within the first 6 or 7 games.

We need 2.17 points per game to reach 75 points from here on.That's 22 point from every 10 games, meaning we need to win 6 out of 10 and draw all the rest.

If we could win 7/10 and draw 1 we could afford the luxury of a couple of defeats now and again--but it won't happen, not with our defence.

[Cabrone]

Although we still have a slim chance I'm resigning myself to no play offs this year. Our results against the top teams indicates to me that we're not quite good enough to catch them up.

 

Maybe we're not as good as we thought we were.

 

Very disappointing esp. as we have had more money spent on us than anyone else but that's life as a fan of this club I guess.

 

For me mid table at the end of season was always par for the course, play offs would have been a nice bonus.

 

Next season though - play offs at least.

[Glasgow_Saint]

 

Maybe we're not as good as we thought we were.

 

 

Not as good as we should be! We have the players we are just not performing to our potential.

[NickG]

The -10 points is saving AP from answering some tough questions - for now.

 

Thankfully AP does not hide behind excuses (like some on here) thats why we havent heard him crying about a shorter pre-season and the fact that we used to be in admin.

 

He admits that the season so far has been poor.

 

APs school report - MUST do better

 

he has answered the questions about the poor start by resolving the form.

 

The season so far, could roughly be divided into two halves;

 

first 12 games

2 wins

6 draws

4 defeats

 

This needed improving on.

 

10 games since;

7 victories

2 draws

1 defeat

 

This is good form, no-one can claim it is poor.

 

It suggests Pardew has answered the tough questions.

 

It also suggests that Pardew acknowledged we/he must do better and has.

 

I strongly suspect that Cortese is very happy with what he has done so far.

[Glasgow_Saint]

he has answered the questions about the poor start by resolving the form.

 

The season so far, could roughly be divided into two halves;

 

first 12 games

2 wins

6 draws

4 defeats

 

This needed improving on.

 

10 games since;

7 victories

2 draws

1 defeat

 

This is good form, no-one can claim it is poor.

 

It suggests Pardew has answered the tough questions.

 

It also suggests that Pardew acknowledged we/he must do better and has.

 

I strongly suspect that Cortese is very happy with what he has done so far.

 

Cortese, much like myself will acknowledge the improvement but like myself would have expected to be outside the relegation zone by now.

 

As it stands we will still be in the bottom 4 after 19 games (possibly many more) and Cortese and AP would have expected more.

 

If we can dust ourselves off and go on a similar run as we just had then no problem - if we dont then the season is well and truely over.

[NickG]

I expected, and hoped for a better start -as I suspect everyone involved did.

 

It may be excuses, but to me they are reasonable ones to say that virtually the whole team and coaching staff were not here for the start of the season.

 

That excuse has more strength when you look at the above change.

[Glasgow_Saint]

I expected, and hoped for a better start -as I suspect everyone involved did.

 

It may be excuses, but to me they are reasonable ones to say that virtually the whole team and coaching staff were not here for the start of the season.

 

That excuse has more strength when you look at the above change.

 

Long may the new improved form continue.

 

need another 4 or 5 wins on the bounce to get us moving up the table again.

[NickG]

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=16618

 

I said in this thread that excuses last only so long.

 

I thought that the -10 and poor start made the league table bit unrealistic to look at (I appreciate that it is the only stat that counts at the end of the season).

 

So its the current form is the main thing I look at now - and will continue to do so.

 

I agree we need a decent run now to show where we are going.

 

If we stay in top few of current form league, as we are now, I will be pretty happy.

[Whitey Grandad]

Cortese, much like myself will acknowledge the improvement but like myself would have expected to be outside the relegation zone by now.

 

As it stands we will still be in the bottom 4 after 19 games (possibly many more) and Cortese and AP would have expected more.

 

If we can dust ourselves off and go on a similar run as we just had then no problem - if we dont then the season is well and truely over.

I know we didn't, but if we had beaten Brighton we would have been. We are improving but it seems to be in fits and starts.

[Thedelldays]

I thought we should have been nicely in midtable by jan 1st...hopefully we will be...

[up and away]

I expected, and hoped for a better start -as I suspect everyone involved did.

 

It may be excuses, but to me they are reasonable ones to say that virtually the whole team and coaching staff were not here for the start of the season.

 

That excuse has more strength when you look at the above change.

 

So 20+ games is not enough! How can that possibly come into the equation after this length of time, money spent and volume of players Pardew has been allowed? Lambert picked up a Norwich team comprised of rejects, freebies and coupon trades when he arrived far later than Pardew. Not only later but collected so may bad habits they were getting walloped regularly.

 

Pardew turned to 451 and Wooton in desperation and it worked to a good degree. It's obvious he does not rate Wooton and would prefer to play his more talented players which is understandable. The problem is if you cannot get them to defend as a cohesive unit, you have an inbuilt weakness that teams can exploit. I am pretty sure from Pardews statements he knows what is wrong but has been placing too much hope in trying to get the better players to take on defensive duties which do not come naturally.

 

With a fit Lambert maybe we would have won that match, but as Pardew has been saying, when you consistently leak goals it is not difficult to see results like Brighton happen. You could see from Pardews reactions that things were far from as he wished against Norwich, something that looks to me as playing the best players rather than the best team.

 

I understand what Pardew is trying to do and really hope he can get it to work with some other combination, but in doing so the slim hope of a play off spot went out the window for me yesterday!

[NickG]

think you need to read the last few posts

[Red&White]

5th from bottom is my target and has been since day one. Anything else is a bonus!

 

My view also

[Glasgow_Saint]

My view also

 

Yeah mine too - just staying up this season would be awesome!

[Thedelldays]

ahhhh....now we have to spend millions to "just stay up" in league 1...

 

that is so laughable

[Glasgow_Saint]

ahhhh....now we have to spend millions to "just stay up" in league 1...

 

that is so laughable

 

Come on Delldays be realistic - anyone that expected anything more this season needs to go to hospital and/or Drs' surgery ASAP and ask for medication because they are clearly insane.

 

Wise up man & be realistic.

 

Money doesnt bring happiness.

[David Strover]

I said right from the season start - finishing fifth from bottom is success anything after that is a bonus.

 

All you have to do is remember that Brighton were hammered 3-0 at home yesterday and 7-1 at Huddersfield Town to see how far we have to go. We've got a good three or more frustrating years in this division yet.

[S-Clarke]

I thought we should have been nicely in midtable by jan 1st...hopefully we will be...

 

yeh i think that's a fair estimate tbh.

 

hopefully we can go on a nice little run now, we've got some ''winnable'' games on the horrizon against teams currently in and around us (tranmere and wycombe are the next 2 home games), so we 'should' be out of the bottom in a few weeks.

[Thedelldays]

I said right from the season start - finishing fifth from bottom is success anything after that is a bonus.

 

 

 

this league is crap...we spent as much on lambert as the NEXT 3 big league 1 signings...

 

if just staying up is success then we might as well give up...we have everything that at least 20 other teams in this league dream about day in day out...

 

just staying up is poor and show utter non ambition by fans

do you really think pardew, cortese and markus are aiming for that..?

 

clearly NOT

[S-Clarke]

I said right from the season start - finishing fifth from bottom is success anything after that is a bonus.

 

All you have to do is remember that Brighton were hammered 3-0 at home yesterday and 7-1 at Huddersfield Town to see how far we have to go. We've got a good three or more frustrating years in this division yet.

 

We should be out of this division in 2 seasons, if we're not something is wrong.

 

Teams with a little bit of money at this level eventually get sustained success, we have that, leeds have that...leiecster had that etc...

 

we need to show more ambition that just avoiding relegation too - mid-table (top half) would be ''ok'' for me, i'd love more - but that would be a decent season (between 8-12)

 

if we just survive that means we've still been loosing lots of games, which doesn't bode well for the club at all, as the setup should be doing much better.

[Glasgow_Saint]

I said right from the season start - finishing fifth from bottom is success anything after that is a bonus.

 

 

 

Dave during his day job!

Edited 22 November, 2009 by Glasgow_Saint

[The Kraken]

We should be out of this division in 2 seasons, if we're not something is wrong.

 

Teams with a little bit of money at this level eventually get sustained success, we have that, leeds have that...leiecster had that etc...

 

we need to show more ambition that just avoiding relegation too - mid-table (top half) would be ''ok'' for me, i'd love more - but that would be a decent season (between 8-12)

 

if we just survive that means we've still been loosing lots of games, which doesn't bode well for the club at all, as the setup should be doing much better.

 

Exactly right. I expected mid-table this season, with a late chase for the play-offs considered a real bonus. We may have spent a lot on players in the summer, but look who we lost from the squad: McGoldrick, Dyer, Surman, Wright-Phillips, Euell, John & Rasiak. From a team that really wasn't that good in the first place. Those sales brought in around £3M, and I'd doubt very much if we've spent as much on their replacements.

[Whitey Grandad]

It's a long shot to be thinking about play-offs at this stage but if we can concentrate on sorting out the defensive problems and get a settled team then let's see where we are in February. A lot depends on the signings and loan arrangements in January.

[hectors house]

It's only when I come on here that I realise what an optimist I am. For me being a footbal fan (unless you follow the likes of Man U etc) is often about "blind loyalty" otherwise I wouldn't bother - where's the fun in all this doom and gloom nonsense? Until it's mathematically impossible then I'm still looking at the play-offs.

 

Even without my "rose tinted glasses" I've been to every home game (apart from Brighton) and I honestly feel we have a much improved side that is more than capable of another 4 or 5 game winning streak. We are in a mini (2 game) slump following our recent peak but I reckon we will win the next 5 ... and the next 5 ... and the next 5. Maybe we will lose to Leeds away (only maybe mind) but otherwise it's point points points.

[Fitzhugh Fella]

It's only when I come on here that I realise what an optimist I am. For me being a footbal fan (unless you follow the likes of Man U etc) is often about "blind loyalty" otherwise I wouldn't bother - where's the fun in all this doom and gloom nonsense? Until it's mathematically impossible then I'm still looking at the play-offs.

 

Even without my "rose tinted glasses" I've been to every home game (apart from Brighton) and I honestly feel we have a much improved side that is more than capable of another 4 or 5 game winning streak. We are in a mini (2 game) slump following our recent peak but I reckon we will win the next 5 ... and the next 5 ... and the next 5. Maybe we will lose to Leeds away (only maybe mind) but otherwise it's point points points.

 

If you had gone to the Brighton game you might have lowered your optimism a tad. It was quite an eye opener. Beaten by a better side - a sobering thought when it was Brighton!

[benjii]

It's only when I come on here that I realise what an optimist I am. For me being a footbal fan (unless you follow the likes of Man U etc) is often about "blind loyalty" otherwise I wouldn't bother - where's the fun in all this doom and gloom nonsense? Until it's mathematically impossible then I'm still looking at the play-offs.

 

Even without my "rose tinted glasses" I've been to every home game (apart from Brighton) and I honestly feel we have a much improved side that is more than capable of another 4 or 5 game winning streak. We are in a mini (2 game) slump following our recent peak but I reckon we will win the next 5 ... and the next 5 ... and the next 5. Maybe we will lose to Leeds away (only maybe mind) but otherwise it's point points points.

 

Exactly, and you are quite right.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

I'd love us to get promoted. Could we rebuild the team during the close season, well enough to not come straight back down? I think not.

 

I think that a steady rebuilding this season with promotion, hopefully, next season is going to be the way forward. This is me being pragmatic, not defeatist.

 

We had a nice little run, with more to come. However it doesn't mean we'll get promoted this season, any more than a few defeats on the bounce mean we'll be relegated.

 

This is going to take some time.

[NickG]

we are not a relegation candidate. We are easily getting enough points to be clear -its just how far clear.

[Thedelldays]

I'd love us to get promoted. Could we rebuild the team during the close season, well enough to not come straight back down? I think not.

 

I think that a steady rebuilding this season with promotion, hopefully, next season is going to be the way forward. This is me being pragmatic, not defeatist.

 

We had a nice little run, with more to come. However it doesn't mean we'll get promoted this season, any more than a few defeats on the bounce mean we'll be relegated.

 

This is going to take some time.

 

why would we go straight back down..?

 

do you have no faith in pardew..?

[Saint_clark]

this league is crap...we spent as much on lambert as the NEXT 3 big league 1 signings...

 

if just staying up is success then we might as well give up...we have everything that at least 20 other teams in this league dream about day in day out...

 

just staying up is poor and show utter non ambition by fans

do you really think pardew, cortese and markus are aiming for that..?

 

clearly NOT

 

We are aiming to finish as high as possible Delldays. I will not be upset if we don't finish in the top half this table.

I think every single one of us, without fail, will be EXPECTING automatic promotion next season though.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Mathematically the play-offs are out of sight, they always were when we didn't wipe out the 10 point deficit within the first 6 or 7 games.

We need 2.17 points p

 

er game to reach 75 points from here on.That's 22 point from every 10 games, meaning we need to win 6 out of 10 and draw all the rest.

If we could win 7/10 and draw 1 we could afford the luxury of a couple of defeats now and again--but it won't happen, not with our defence.

 

I agree , it's not that 2 points per game is in any way impossible (or even very unusual for a in-form team) but over two points per game for 29 games is a massive 'ask' in all honesty - a bridge too far now I'd have thought .

 

With only one game left to play in November the table shows we will certainly start the month of December still mired in the relegation zone . If you'd have told me that back in August on the first day of the season I would have been mightily cheesed-off in all honesty .

 

Is there any Saints fan on here who is in truth not even slightly disappointed with the way the season has worked out ? ..... cue the usual long list of excuses .

[brmbrm]

Mathematically the play-offs are out of sight, they always were when we didn't wipe out the 10 point deficit within the first 6 or 7 games.

We need 2.17 points per game to reach 75 points from here on.That's 22 point from every 10 games, meaning we need to win 6 out of 10 and draw all the rest.

If we could win 7/10 and draw 1 we could afford the luxury of a couple of defeats now and again--but it won't happen, not with our defence.

 

Your maths is pretty bad then! Difficult maybe, but not mathematically out of sight.

[John B]

I agree , it's not that 2 points per game is in any way impossible (or even very unusual for a in-form team) but over two points per game for 29 games is a massive 'ask' in all honesty - a bridge too far now I'd have thought .

 

With only one game left to play in November the table shows we will certainly start the month of December still mired in the relegation zone . If you'd have told me that back in August on the first day of the season I would have been mightily cheesed-off in all honesty .

 

Is there any Saints fan on here who is in truth not even slightly disappointed with the way the season has worked out ? ..... cue the usual long list of excuses .

 

 

I was disappointed that we started so badly but we have done OK since.

 

I wiil however be disappointed if we dont beat a few of the top teams this season so far I think we may have only beaten one top ten team in the league this season - MK Dons

[brmbrm]

5th from bottom is my target and has been since day one. Anything else is a bonus!

 

Very definitely NOT my target. Mid-table is fione, but I want the last 15 games or so to be played with the skill, style and results of a league winnign team, because that's where we want to start in August 2010. So get the team settled and the4 momentum going this season.

[John B]

Your maths is pretty bad then! Difficult maybe, but not mathematically out of sight.

 

Probably not mathematically but Statistically our chance of Promotion is extremely small.

[Saint Fan CaM]

Despite the maths and all our wishes, I do not think the play-offs are realistic for one reason alone. There are six plus other teams that are better equiped to make the push this season who did not have -10pts hanging around their necks. For every game we win, they win one and so the law of averages says we will not overtake 6 teams this season. Next season should be a completely different prospect though.

[Glasgow_Saint]

Despite the maths and all our wishes, I do not think the play-offs are realistic for one reason alone. There are six plus other teams that are better equiped to make the push this season who did not have -10pts hanging around their necks. For every game we win, they win one and so the law of averages says we will not overtake 6 teams this season. Next season should be a completely different prospect though.

 

Who are the 6+ better equipped sides?

 

& why are they better equipped?

[hectors house]

If you had gone to the Brighton game you might have lowered your optimism a tad. It was quite an eye opener. Beaten by a better side - a sobering thought when it was Brighton!

 

Fair point and like I said I was not there but I did give my ticket to a Liverpool supporting mate and when I saw the result I expected him to enjoy telling me how useless we were. However what he did say was that we looked like a good side other than our defence which was awful. That seemed to also be the common feeling yesterday and it seems that Trotman has lost his mojo at the moment. Let's hope it's a blip but if not we do have Perry or Thomas in reserve.

 

What I would say is that Brighton was one bad performance amongst a recent glut of good performances and at the moment I'm going to focus on the good.

[Saint Fan CaM]

Who are the 6+ better equipped sides?

 

& why are they better equipped?

 

 

I could probably reel off 6 teams that will finish top 6, but that was not really my point as such, as I tried to explain. Basically IMO there will be at least 6 teams who will match or better our efforts and therefore always be ahead of us - this season. The last two games have shown that we do not have the 'extra something' that will allow us to comfortably overhaul the -10pts.

 

That's not to say we're a bad side or that we're doomed - we have just had too many issues to overcome this season to have a realistic shout. Next season will see a level playing field and a much more stable side hopefully.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

why would we go straight back down..?

 

do you have no faith in pardew..?

 

Faith in Pardew? Of course I have, what a daft, but not totally unexpected, question.

 

Whether this current team could stay up? No, it would need more bods, and some a lot better than we have already. I don't think that we could build, and gel, a championship team during a close season. Which is why I think we should improve the team over this and next season. If we do go up this season I severely doubt we would have the correct depth of squad or quality to stay up.

[Thedelldays]

Faith in Pardew? Of course I have, what a daft, but not totally unexpected, question.

 

Whether this current team could stay up? No, it would need more bods, and some a lot better than we have already. I don't think that we could build, and gel, a championship team during a close season. Which is why I think we should improve the team over this and next season. If we do go up this season I severely doubt we would have the correct depth of squad or quality to stay up.

how come many teams come up on a pittance and stay up on a pittance..?

[JRM]

Faith in Pardew? Of course I have, what a daft, but not totally unexpected, question.

 

Whether this current team could stay up? No, it would need more bods, and some a lot better than we have already. I don't think that we could build, and gel, a championship team during a close season. Which is why I think we should improve the team over this and next season. If we do go up this season I severely doubt we would have the correct depth of squad or quality to stay up.

 

I think we are a good side, but not as good as some people were saying a couple of weeks back and we wont make the play offs this season. I've seen every league game this season apart from Southend, and after seeing a lot of improvement building up to MK Dons at home we've dropped back a bit. Probably finish about 12th.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

how come many teams come up on a pittance and stay up on a pittance..?

 

How many teams come down with a team decimated by low morale, lack of fibre and having had a few leave to better themselves. We had a manager take over with little or no notice of what was needed.

 

I'm not asking for us to spend millions and millions. Just to take a long hard look at the players we have and to discard those not in our long term plans.

 

Pardew has done well with what, at the time, was a limited time frame. I suspect that some of his acquisitions, and some incumbents, are not living up to his expectations. He needs time to move them on and build a stable team that will see us not only through a promotion but onward to stability in the CCC.

 

What are you looking for us to do? Spend millions? Attain promotion with the current squad? If yes, are they good enough to maintain us through a CCC season without relegation?

 

Somewhere, inbetween spending millions and buying a few better players, lies the answer.

[Thedelldays]

How many teams come down with a team decimated by low morale, lack of fibre and having had a few leave to better themselves. We had a manager take over with little or no notice of what was needed.

 

.

most teams like saints who get relegated from the prem then the CCC would come under that...

[Glasgow_Saint]

How many teams come down with a team decimated by low morale, lack of fibre and having had a few leave to better themselves.

 

This season = 2

 

Charlton 2nd (20 points ahead of us)

 

Norwich 5th (16 points ahead of us)

 

HTH

[EastleighSoulBoy]

This season = 2

 

Charlton 2nd (20 points ahead of us)

 

Norwich 5th (16 points ahead of us)

 

HTH

Charlton less our -10 = 10 points ahead

 

Norwich less our -10 = 6 points ahead

 

This ten point deduction will always, for us, be a hard penalty to overhaul. Those who thought we'd do it by the end of September/October/etc can now see the difficulty in doing that.

 

So, with respectfully, a theoretical 10 point and 6 point lead what makes the difference? Quality of players, in my opinion, and a better close season than we experienced. If Charlton or Norwich get promoted will they just rebuild during the close season? Will they leave the team as it is?

 

Their teams are, probably, better us all round. So they start from a better position than we do.

 

I'd suspect that they, and others, will each buy (or attempt to buy) a couple in January and maybe a couple more in June/July/August. Not that they will spend millions, any more than we will!