14 games in and ..the stats.

[david in sweden]

No apologies for my " nerd-like " statisical contribution in the past, and I'll NOT make them today. Individual match analyses may vary but now we can see the effect of AP " new look " side.

Many people were a bit unsure in the first few games. Lambert was an instant hit, and Harding too, Pity Murty got injured so early on but it was clear that Saga wasn't going to make it , and Paterson is still a shade too young. Trotman came in (another good deal AP) and so too Hammond and Mellis.... but with 7 games gone..it wasn't so exciting.

 

P7. W0 D5 L2 goals 5-8 points 5 (effectively still -5)

 

Then the masterstroke, Jaidi signed (at last) and we had the strong backline that we need in front of Kelvin. Papa Weigo has his critics, but everyone says he's exciting and unpredicatable. At last we had a good front line with Lallana and Lambert scoring regularly. ..and finally David Connolly provides the icing on the cake and he's super sub. even before he's started a game.since then: the second 7 games look like this .

 

P7 W5 D1 L1 goals 18-8 points 16 (though still only 11 of them count).

 

OK we don't have a watertight defence, but whilst we can score more than the opposition... it's still 3 points a game. If things had been "all square" from the start (instead of -10) our 14 game record of 5-6-3 puts us in 9th place....and be one of 3 teams on 21 points. Only 3 teams have scored more than us, and only 7 teams have a better goals against.

 

IF.. this form continues we will gradually eat away the -10, and start to look really good in the table. COYR !!!!

Edited 25 October, 2009 by david in sweden

[forever a red and white]

also in the last three games we have won 3-1 and in the last two games we have had the same goal scorers in the same order.

 

also first time we have won 4 games on the bounce since 2002

[Saint Without a Halo]

No apologies for my " nerd-like " statisical contribution in the past, and I'll NOT make them today. Individual match analyses may vary but now we can see the effect of AP " new look " side.

Many people were a bit unsure in the first few games. Lambert was an instant hit, and Harding too, Pity Murty got injured so early on but it was clear that Saga wasn't going to make it , and Paterson is still a shade too young. Trotman came in (another good deal AP) and so too Hammond and Mellis.... but with 7 games gone..it wasn't so exciting.

 

P7. W0 D5 L2 goals 5-8 points 5 (effectively still -5)

 

Then the masterstroke, Jaidi signed (at last) and we had the strong backline that we need in front of Kelvin. Papa Weigo has his critics, but everyone says he's exciting and unpredicatable. At last we had a good front line with Lallana and Lambert scoring regularly. ..and finally David Connolly provides the icing on the cake and he's super sub. even before he's started a game.since then: the second 7 games look like this .

 

P7 W5 D1 L1 goals 18-8 points 16 (though still only 11 of them count).

 

OK we don't have a watertight defence, but whilst we can score more than the opposition... it's still 3 points a game. If things had been "all square" from the start (instead of -10) our 14 game record of 5-6-3 puts us in 9th place....and be one of 3 teams on 21 points. Only 3 teams have scored more than us, and only 7 teams have a better goals against.

 

IF.. this form continues we will gradually eat away the -10, and start to look really good in the table. COYR !!!!

 

It is also the case that with two or three exceptions (Leeds Charlton and maybe Norwich) the rest of the divison is "much of a muchness" this means they will take points of each other and bunch up over the season with the distance between the playoffs and relegation zone being less than the normal average.

 

This will mitigate the effect of our minus 10, making it a much less effective penalty!

all we need to do is keep up the good form and the play off's should be there for the taking!

[RonManager]

We are 22nd today. If we move up one place every match, we will be top on Saturday 6th March 2010 (Tranmere), after 35 games.

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

also in the last three games we have won 3-1 and in the last two games we have had the same goal scorers in the same order.

 

also first time we have won 4 games on the bounce since 2002

 

2006 actually...

[Matthew Le God]

We are 22nd today. If we move up one place every match, we will be top on Saturday 6th March 2010 (Tranmere), after 35 games.

 

Leagues don't work like that so a strange statement

[Huntingdon]

This is the 29th season of 3pts for a win

 

The average points won for 1st, 2nd & 6th in League 1 are -

 

Champions - 91.42

Runners Up - 85.75

6th Place - 74.5

 

So, we probably need 64pts from our remaining 32 games to reach the play-offs, and 75 to gain automatic promotion

[SaintDonkey]

This is the 29th season of 3pts for a win

 

The average points won for 1st, 2nd & 6th in League 1 are -

 

Champions - 91.42

Runners Up - 85.75

6th Place - 74.5

 

So, we probably need 64pts from our remaining 32 games to reach the play-offs, and 75 to gain automatic promotion

 

So 2.34 points a game needed for automatic promotion? While it's remains at less than 3 points a game I'm still hoping

 

Although I think if we do win all the rest of our games this seasons a certain gentleman with horns and a forked tail becomes the legal possessor of my soul!

[Guest Dark Sotonic Mills]

So 2.34 points a game needed for automatic promotion? While it's remains at less than 3 points a game I'm still hoping

 

Although I think if we do win all the rest of our games this seasons a certain gentleman with horns and a forked tail becomes the legal possessor of my soul!

 

I thought we agreed there'd be no more posts about Rupert Lowe?

[david in sweden]

We are 22nd today. If we move up one place every match, we will be top on Saturday 6th March 2010 (Tranmere), after 35 games.

 

I think you might have added " an average " of one place per match.

There are some bigger gaps higher up the table which in theory would need two or three wins to overcome, but your idea is right.

COYR !!!!!!!!

Edited 26 October, 2009 by david in sweden

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

This is the 29th season of 3pts for a win

 

The average points won for 1st, 2nd & 6th in League 1 are -

 

Champions - 91.42

Runners Up - 85.75

6th Place - 74.5

 

So, we probably need 64pts from our remaining 32 games to reach the play-offs, and 75 to gain automatic promotion

 

2 points per game is a hard target , I see ony Chelsea , MUFC & Arsenal are currently achieving that in the EPL - no team in the CCC - and just the top 3 in L1 . Differcult as it is you have to say with the squad we have now and the form we're in it's not impossible by any means .

 

For the record our current PPG stat' stands at 1.5

[NickG]

isn't Pardew's side averaging 3 points per game?

[SNSUN]

We haven't played Leeds or Norwich yet either - while I'd rather we played them when we were in poor form at the start of the season (so we could play the so called "lesser" teams when we hit form), I don't see why we can't pick points up against these two.

 

The good feeling around St Mary's at the moment doesn't just come from the wins, but from the knowledge that with a team as good as ours in this league, nobody can envisage where the next defeat comes from. This must be close to what it feels like to be a Man U/Chelsea fan.

[Scudamore]

I'd like apologise on behalf of david in sweden for his " nerd-like " statisical contribution in the past, and also yesterday since he appears to be too stubborn to do so himself...

[yorkiesaint]

I had a quick check of past tables yesterday. As others have said 75 points or so is the target for the playoffs. Contrary to saint without a halo's post above, after 14 games, 22 points would have got you in the playoff places in 3 of the last 4 seasons (24 for the other), and this season is exactly the same. So we can expect the target to be similar to previous seasons on this form.

[krissyboy31]

This is the 29th season of 3pts for a win

 

The average points won for 1st, 2nd & 6th in League 1 are -

 

Champions - 91.42

Runners Up - 85.75

6th Place - 74.5

 

So, we probably need 64pts from our remaining 32 games to reach the play-offs, and 75 to gain automatic promotion

 

As NickG pointed out in a previous thread, you only have to better 7th place and they average about 69 over the same period (although he was counting on our goal difference being better due to making up -10 points deficit). I reckon 72 points will get 6th place and a play-off spot, still a very tough proposition but it is achievable (especially after 4 wins in a row, putting us ahead of the previous calculations).

[VectisSaint]

We are 22nd today. If we move up one place every match, we will be top on Saturday 6th March 2010 (Tranmere), after 35 games.

Great, so the following game we will be bottom of the CCC and we could almost push for a play-off place in the CCC after 46 games

[Ozkeith2]

We're still going to have some ups & downs through the season. It's a long journey.

But:

12 games to get off the bottom

12 games to get clear of relegation

12 games for mid-table security

and the rest to make the play-offs !

 

Coyr!

[TopGun]

8th favourites for promotion here.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/coca-cola-league-1/promotion

[iansums]

It's interesting that we have already played most of the teams in the top half of the table. We are still to play Leeds, Norwich and Hartlepool (who are 10th). So in theory we have a lot of 'easier' games before the mid-point of the season.

I think we have a good chance, if we maintain this form to get to the middle of the table by the end of the year. This will put us in prime positiion for a play-off place.

[hypochondriac]

We have also scored 4 more goals then any other team over the last 6 games.

[saintbletch]

Something for the nerd in us all...

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Southampton.html

 

I particularly like the October rank!

[for_heaven's_Saint]

This is the 29th season of 3pts for a win

 

The average points won for 1st, 2nd & 6th in League 1 are -

 

Champions - 91.42

Runners Up - 85.75

6th Place - 74.5

 

So, we probably need 64pts from our remaining 32 games to reach the play-offs, and 75 to gain automatic promotion

 

So basically, if we take the games 3 at a time, if we win 2 out of 3 of every 3 games, we should reach the play-offs.

 

When you look at it like that it does look pretty achievable. It means even when we have a fixture like Leeds away, if we can win the 2 games either side of it a loss shouldn't affect our progress.

[hypochondriac]

So basically, if we take the games 3 at a time, if we win 2 out of 3 of every 3 games, we should reach the play-offs.

 

When you look at it like that it does look pretty achievable. It means even when we have a fixture like Leeds away, if we can win the 2 games either side of it a loss shouldn't affect our progress.

 

And if we win 3 in a row we can afford 2 losses!

[yorkiesaint]

As NickG pointed out in a previous thread, you only have to better 7th place and they average about 69 over the same period (although he was counting on our goal difference being better due to making up -10 points deficit). I reckon 72 points will get 6th place and a play-off spot, still a very tough proposition but it is achievable (especially after 4 wins in a row, putting us ahead of the previous calculations).

 

I can see the thinking but I surely NickG is mistaken. To have been in sixth place you have to have beaten the team that would otherwise be in sixth place, otherwise you would be seventh. That's where beating the team in seventh would get you. In the last 4 seasons we would have needed around 76 points to get sixth.

[yorkiesaint]

And if we win 3 in a row we can afford 2 losses!

 

No, If we win 4 in a row we can afford 2 losses. and that doesn't count the 4 we just won!

[mikec]

I can see the thinking but I surely NickG is mistaken. To have been in sixth place you have to have beaten the team that would otherwise be in sixth place, otherwise you would be seventh. That's where beating the team in seventh would get you. In the last 4 seasons we would have needed around 76 points to get sixth.

 

I think the point is you need to look at how many points the team in 6th would need to get so that they would STILL be 6th. If the team in 7th got 70 points and the team in 6th got 75 points, then you could say that 71 points would have been sufficent for the 6th place team to get a play-off spot. The fact that they actually got more than that is irrelevant.

 

It comes down to whether you are looking at it by inserting Saints into an already completed league table of 24 teams (your approach), or whether you consider it as a league that already includes Saints as a potential 6th place finisher (NickG's approach). Not sure if this makes any sense but I know what I mean

[krissyboy31]

I think the point is you need to look at how many points the team in 6th would need to get so that they would STILL be 6th. If the team in 7th got 70 points and the team in 6th got 75 points, then you could say that 71 points would have been sufficent for the 6th place team to get a play-off spot. The fact that they actually got more than that is irrelevant.

 

It comes down to whether you are looking at it by inserting Saints into an already completed league table of 24 teams (your approach), or whether you consider it as a league that already includes Saints as a potential 6th place finisher (NickG's approach). Not sure if this makes any sense but I know what I mean

 

Correct! Er I think? :confused:

[Genk]

I see that on Sky Bet we are 7/1 to win promotion now. What were the odds before we played Yeovil or Gillingham does anybody know?

[martel]

also in the last three games we have won 3-1 and in the last two games we have had the same goal scorers in the same order.

 

also first time we have won 4 games on the bounce since 2002

 

I did not know that, 2002 since we won four on the bounce, perhaps we are now looking up.

[Huntingdon]

I see that on Sky Bet we are 7/1 to win promotion now. What were the odds before we played Yeovil or Gillingham does anybody know?

 

We were 28/1 after losing to Bristol Rovers

[West End Saint]

There are bound to be some hic-ups along the way cant expect to win every game but we have got a football team that is going to win more than lose AP & his team have made real progress so impressed with his signings we are defo going in the right direction & whilst I wont rule out making the play offs this season I feel confident of promotion next but how good is it to be watching a completely debt free well run decent football team really enjoying my football at the moment keep up the good work Saints

[red&white56]

We were 28/1 after losing to Bristol Rovers

 

Afterthe Britol Rovers they were probably the right odds.

[VectisSaint]

I did not know that, 2002 since we won four on the bounce, perhaps we are now looking up.

Except it was actually 2006 when Snodin was in charge (sorry, I mean when Burley was manager).

[Gorgiesaint]

Something for the nerd in us all...

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Southampton.html

 

I particularly like the October rank!

 

That is a statto's paradise!!!

 

Anyway, if we needed to be on 75 points to be in the playoffs that means we need to garner 85 points - which is 1.85 points per game.

 

After 14 games that means we should be on 26 points to be on track for the playoffs - we've gathered 21.

 

So we're not that far away from where we needed to be despite our slow start. If we can maintain our current form then there are real possibilities.

[Block 5]

If we beat Orient on Saturday it is a given that AP will receive the manager of the month award.

It may already be in the bag.....

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

If we beat Orient on Saturday it is a given that AP will receive the manager of the month award.

It may already be in the bag.....

 

......the kiss of death for any winning run .

[kpturner]

If we beat Orient on Saturday it is a given that AP will receive the manager of the month award.

It may already be in the bag.....

Thanks for that. I am going, and now I already know we are going to lose

[Block 5]

Doh!

Sorry guys...... Blame me if we lose.

[M271]

Another interesting website for stato nerds. Pity the league position and points section doesn't take account of the -10 start, but it does show where we would of been in the league without the deduction over the season.

 

http://www.livescores.co.uk/index.jsp?comp=3

[westofshannonsaint]

32 games left/64 more points required for promotion = 2 points per game required

 

20 wins, 4 draws & 8 losses.

[Jack]

Except it was actually 2006 when Snodin was in charge (sorry, I mean when Burley was manager).

 

I remember it well. The run ended vs Southend away. We lost 2-1. I lost my £800 accumulator due to that result.