krissyboy31 Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 it wasn't based on opinion but the previous - I think I looked at about 7 seasons - often teams in play offs had more points but by far the most common threshold that would passed to secure that position was 69 Just looking back, in '05-71 points was required, '06-70, '07-73, '08-70 and '09-75. So as I said 69 was optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 Points Required to get 6th place: 08/09 - 76 07/08 - 76 06/07 - 75 05/06 - 71 04/05 - 71 74 points is the average, going to be a stretch to get there but nice to be looking up at long last! Thanks for that St Chalet . 74 points over just 34 remaining games means a scoring rate of more than 2 points per game on average will be required from now on . If anyone on here really believes that we're going to rampage our way through the fixture list like some unstoppable red and white striped Panzer Division then I'll have some of what they're drinking . .... it would be nice though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 12 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 12 October, 2009 08/09 74 07/08 69 06/07 72 05/06 69 04/05 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 12 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 12 October, 2009 Points Required to get 6th place: 08/09 - 76 07/08 - 76 06/07 - 75 05/06 - 71 04/05 - 71 74 points is the average, going to be a stretch to get there but nice to be looking up at long last! sorry, checked again, those figures are wrong - you maybe looking at points the team in 6th got, rather than points required to get 6th place. Explained in my first post, but it is what you say you have done?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 08/09 74 07/08 69 06/07 72 05/06 69 04/05 70 That's what the 7th place teams achieved. The 6th place teams have to beat them! OK because of the -10 there's a good chance that our goal difference will be better than teams we finish level with but I don't think one can count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 lol - you didn't even post on the thread in question so I wasn't referring to you, I wonder why you thought someone saying posters were rude and arrogant were talking about you? Although you last line is making a decent effort to make the cap fit! And I appreciate your compliment on how I stay positive and support my team despite watching a lot of crap there over the years. Classic post and cheered me up! Always happy to oblige Nick , the memory of your tireless and enthusiastic support of Poortvliet's and Lowe's 'Total Football' experiment last season has always served as a reliable source of amusement on many a dull autumn night too . ...how exactly did that turn out by the way ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 12 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 12 October, 2009 That's what the 7th place teams achieved. The 6th place teams have to beat them! OK because of the -10 there's a good chance that our goal difference will be better than teams we finish level with but I don't think one can count on it. exactly what I based first post on, if we get there - there will be v good chance of having better goal difference. for what its worth I still would predict 8-10th finish - but the first post was a very rough (as it said) demonstration that it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 12 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 12 October, 2009 Always happy to oblige Nick , the memory of your tireless and enthusiastic support of Poortvliet's and Lowe's 'Total Football' experiment last season has always served as a reliable source of amusement on many a dull autumn night too . ...how exactly did that turn out by the way ? pretty sh1t, but kept going hoping it would get better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 (edited) pretty sh1t, but kept going hoping it would get better! .... Edited 13 October, 2009 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE Too immature for words really . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 sorry, checked again, those figures are wrong - you maybe looking at points the team in 6th got, rather than points required to get 6th place. Explained in my first post, but it is what you say you have done?? That is exactly what I have done. I'll go back and read your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 I have read your first post. To finish 6th you need to score at least as many points as the team that would have been 6th. Although I do understand where you are coming from, looking at what achieved 6th as opposed to what beat 7th is a far better guide. Also I put a projection into our current points based on last 6 games and it has us at 67 points. Happy to send the workbook to you if you PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 12 October, 2009 Share Posted 12 October, 2009 Thanks for that St Chalet . 74 points over just 34 remaining games means a scoring rate of more than 2 points per game on average will be required from now on . If anyone on here really believes that we're going to rampage our way through the fixture list like some unstoppable red and white striped Panzer Division then I'll have some of what they're drinking . .... it would be nice though . I believe that a couple more convincing results will see us do just that. Football is not won or lost on grass. It is won or lost on a six inch pitch between the ears. The more we win, the more belief we will have and, most importantly, the more our opponents will fear us. This is not about hope and optimism, it is about capitalising on our resources, strength and infrastructure and imposing ourselves on lesser teams. This is not direspectful - we were one of those minnows and enjoyed felling a few goliaths in our time. But we are no longer that minnow. We must and WILL start to think like a shark and fear no-one. This is the hallmark of winners. The profile of Champions. Fear is the enemy, not the opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinhk Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 Seems that the consensus from the 'realists' is that we will still be in League One next season. The 'devils advocate' in me is wondering then if it is really worth busting a gut to get out of the division this season. Could it be argued that we quietly consolidate and keep our powder dry for next season. Then we could go out full speed from the off and push hard all season. For example, I don't know the stats here but is it common for a striker to have three good seasons in a row? Why doesn't Ricky have a breather this season and give us +25 next when it will really count. Crazy nonsense or pragmatists delight? Tin hat on (we need a smily for that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 For those who want a rough idea of what maybe required thought this might help. It is not intended to be exact, as each season will clearly be different. I have looked at the final league table over last few years - looked at the team in 6th, and looked at what would have been the lowest points they could have had to secure that 6th place. The most common points to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Although last year S****horpe would have needed 74) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. (I have only used last 6 games as it is easy current form table on internet) Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! Its a big ask IMHO. We can always strive and hope for more but survival in League 1 was the plan this year and is all that needs to be delivered along with a new side to win the league next year. This is one 2 year long pre-season for the CCC - playoffs are ust a bonus. AP knows that - which is why he wants to win the JPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 I believe that a couple more convincing results will see us do just that. Football is not won or lost on grass. It is won or lost on a six inch pitch between the ears. The more we win, the more belief we will have and, most importantly, the more our opponents will fear us. This is not about hope and optimism, it is about capitalising on our resources, strength and infrastructure and imposing ourselves on lesser teams. This is not direspectful - we were one of those minnows and enjoyed felling a few goliaths in our time. But we are no longer that minnow. We must and WILL start to think like a shark and fear no-one. This is the hallmark of winners. The profile of Champions. Fear is the enemy, not the opposition. Good stuff LTC and very true , but it's also true that the opposition are not just hapless victims of our ambitions - they have their own dreams and plans , indeed they may well take issue with us regarding them as mere 'Lesser teams' in the first place . As you have pointed out the bigger better resourced team doesn't always win in football (far from it) this is why in practical terms maintaining a rather better than 2 points per game average over a long period is so difficult to achieve in practice . It can be done but only by ruthlessly efficient and consistent sides at the very height of their powers , can we honestly say we fit that description yet ? Fear is indeed the enemy - but what happens when two well matched teams that have both managed to conqueror that final enemy meet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 Hmm, I think we should have a competition to see who is the best pedant in this forum... do you think I'd win?!! (Cue: someone pointing out some error in my argument...!!) That's fighting talk. Besides, on this board, it's "best pendant". And now, apropos of nothing other than that it is annoying me, I may as well mention to CB Fry that it looks like he was right about us not getting any more points deductions beyond the original 10... though I'm putting it down to Cortese and Liebherr's legal and financial nous, and arguing that the likes of Pinnacle would have incurred further penalty, if pushed into a corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glkdcdes Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 If we average 8th place [currently 6th] in the current form league,through the rest of the season we will end up with 60/61 points, which last season would have had us in 13th place. i reckon this should be about par.I dont think we will do worse,[but maybe that is natural optimism]. to be relegated we need to be around 11 points under par. To get play offs we will need to be around 15 points over par. Neither option, ie relegation or play offs are impossible but i would put my money on ending up between 15th and 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 Good stuff LTC and very true , but it's also true that the opposition are not just hapless victims of our ambitions - they have their own dreams and plans , indeed they may well take issue with us regarding them as mere 'Lesser teams' in the first place . As you have pointed out the bigger better resourced team doesn't always win in football (far from it) this is why in practical terms maintaining a rather better than 2 points per game average over a long period is so difficult to achieve in practice . It can be done but only by ruthlessly efficient and consistent sides at the very height of their powers , can we honestly say we fit that description yet ? Fear is indeed the enemy - but what happens when two well matched teams that have both managed to conqueror that final enemy meet ? We are not the real deal yet but we are bloody close in my view. And we have the pockets to fill the gaps! As to what happens when two well matched teams meet, the wafer thin margins come into play - and yes that includes the referee and luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 We are not the real deal yet but we are bloody close in my view. And we have the pockets to fill the gaps! As to what happens when two well matched teams meet, the wafer thin margins come into play - and yes that includes the referee and luck!! Ha ! - I'll jump on the coatails of the red and white Panzer division when we start are unstoppable advance and claim I predicted it all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 I was listening to something on Radio 5 live this afternoon where somebody suggested that sports fans are open to wishful thinking. Which I think maybe common on this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonManager Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 (edited) In terms of us achieving Base Camp 1 ie. out of the relegation zone, last night's Tranmere defeat was good and tonight a draw or Gillingham win will help. As I type I am listening on Saints Player - it is 0-0, with Brighton on top, although Simeon Jackson sounds dangerous. 1-0 Brighton 2-0 FT Edited 13 October, 2009 by RonManager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Target 1 is to get out of the bottom 4. Even with good results that is probably 6 games away (catching up with 20th at one point per game). After we achieve that we will fly through the bottom half, as they are all so bunched up. (Hopefully). Probably 4-6 games to get from 20th to top half. THEN we can start looking upwards at the playoffs, and even if that serves only to keep the season going, that will be great. Even for these modest ambitions we need to stay largely injury free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedAndWhite91 Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 I was listening to something on Radio 5 live this afternoon where somebody suggested that sports fans are open to wishful thinking. Which I think maybe common on this thread I read something which suggested that sports fans are open to high rates of negativity. Which I think may be common with you. Reaching the playoffs, despite ambitious, is still highly realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Reaching the playoffs, despite ambitious, is still highly realistic. How realistic - sure thing/50-50/1 in 4 chance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Target 1 is to get out of the bottom 4. Even with good results that is probably 6 games away (catching up with 20th at one point per game). After we achieve that we will fly through the bottom half, as they are all so bunched up. (Hopefully). Probably 4-6 games to get from 20th to top half. THEN we can start looking upwards at the playoffs, and even if that serves only to keep the season going, that will be great. Even for these modest ambitions we need to stay largely injury free. Target one has been achieved - to go into positive points Target two - to not be bottom Target three - out of the relegation zone By then, with more games played the teams may not be so bunched so let's see after we get out of the relegation zone. I agree it could be around the six game mark to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aardvark Posted 15 October, 2009 Share Posted 15 October, 2009 A few musings from a non-Full member who is quite good with numbers... Getting between 64 and 69 is going to be tough but is not impossible. My hope is that we can achieve this, but I am not going to make any expectations that we will. My only expectation is that we will finish well clear of relegation. As some have pedantically suggested, in actual fact because we will have to gain an extra ten points, the actual points needed could be a tiny bit smaller as it will reduce the amount of points that others can get. However, ten points less for other teams divided between 23 teams is not a lot, so the difference is negligible and worrying about it is definitely very pedantic! If you did want to be pedantic and worry about those ten points, you would potentially be wrong to assume that they would come predominantly from teams higher up the table. While teams in the top half would between them have more points that could be taken back to contribute to the extra ten points needed by Saints, on average Saints are likely to claim more points from teams in the lower half of the table, because they are the teams that lose more games. So the contribution could actually be larger from the lower table teams! Both NickG and MLG were correct on the other thread! They were just arguing two different things! MLG was right to say that if you go ahead of the team in 7th, you move into 7th position, while NickG was right to say that if Scünthorpe had got two less points than they did they would still have been promoted (although of course if they had lost those two points playing Tranmere, the team in 7th, then that would not have been the case, as this would have implied that instead of beating Tranmere they would have drawn against them and thus Tranmere would themselves have had one extra point!) Ultimately though the argument was again very pedantic!! Hmm, I think we should have a competition to see who is the best pedant in this forum... do you think I'd win?!! (Cue: someone pointing out some error in my argument...!!) It depends on what you mean by "best" pedant. Do you mean the most pedantic pedant? (which begs the question of whether or not there are degrees of pedantry - a bit like "uniqueness", soemthing either is or isn't. Alternatively you may mean some other quality of pedant such as loudness, forcefulness of argument, popularity etc..........zzzzzzzzzz........:smt009 Really, you need to be more specific!! :smt075 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 15 October, 2009 Share Posted 15 October, 2009 Target 1 beat Oldham. Target 2 beat the team we play after Oldham. Target 3, beat the team we play after that... Let's not complicate this, ladies. We've had enough bull over the years to last a lifetime. Football is a fecking simple game. Keep it that way!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 17 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 17 October, 2009 For those who want a rough idea of what maybe required thought this might help. It is not intended to be exact, as each season will clearly be different. I have looked at the final league table over last few years - looked at the team in 6th, and looked at what would have been the lowest points they could have had to secure that 6th place. The most common points to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Although last year S****horpe would have needed 74) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. (I have only used last 6 games as it is easy current form table on internet) Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! current form now 2.2 points per game over last 6. using guides in above, for play offs now roughly 61 points from 33 games -gives 1.8 points per game needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 17 October, 2009 Share Posted 17 October, 2009 Using the form over the last 6 games gives us a projection of 79.5 points to finish the season on. At the start of the season,to hit the playoffs (based on the realistic 74 points) the run-rate as of game 13 would be 13.74 points. That puts us 5.74 points below the rate as it stands. In case you were wondering we would have to win the next five games to get ahead of the start of season required rate. Based on 74 points needed, less the eight we have, leaves 66 needed, divide that by the 33 remaining games and its a simple 2 points a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 17 October, 2009 Share Posted 17 October, 2009 Using the form over the last 6 games gives us a projection of 79.5 points to finish the season on. At the start of the season,to hit the playoffs (based on the realistic 74 points) the run-rate as of game 13 would be 13.74 points. That puts us 5.74 points below the rate as it stands. In case you were wondering we would have to win the next five games to get ahead of the start of season required rate. Based on 74 points needed, less the eight we have, leaves 66 needed, divide that by the 33 remaining games and its a simple 2 points a game. indeed . If we keep picking up 2 a game, (a big ask over a season its nailed on promotion form) we will get up among the playoff places. If we can at least get within touching distance by the spring, should make for some great games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 24 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 24 October, 2009 For those who want a rough idea of what maybe required thought this might help. It is not intended to be exact, as each season will clearly be different. I have looked at the final league table over last few years - looked at the team in 6th, and looked at what would have been the lowest points they could have had to secure that 6th place. The most common points to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Although last year S****horpe would have needed 74) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. (I have only used last 6 games as it is easy current form table on internet) Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html current form still running at 2.2 points per game over last 6 games (probably longer actually). to hit 69 points we now need 58 points from 32 games. 1.8 points per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 24 November, 2009 Author Share Posted 24 November, 2009 to hit 69 points now need; 53 points from 28 - had few to drink so may have this very wrong! 1.9 per game?? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bognor Posted 24 November, 2009 Share Posted 24 November, 2009 to hit 69 points now need; 53 points from 28 - had few to drink so may have this very wrong! 1.9 per game?? ;) Call me a pedant, but I make it 1.892857 ;);) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brmbrm Posted 24 November, 2009 Share Posted 24 November, 2009 Call me a pedant, but I make it 1.892857 ;);) Pedant (well someone had to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bognor Posted 24 November, 2009 Share Posted 24 November, 2009 Pedant (well someone had to) To be fair, I've been called worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 24 November, 2009 Share Posted 24 November, 2009 to hit 69 points now need; 53 points from 28 - had few to drink so may have this very wrong! 1.9 per game?? ;) And we're currently running at 1.44 per game so far, which is an indication of the size of the job and how our poor start has really hamstrung us. Nailed on top-two form for the rest of the season. It's possible but it is not easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 24 November, 2009 Author Share Posted 24 November, 2009 not with this team - we are running a lot higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 24 November, 2009 Share Posted 24 November, 2009 (edited) not with this team - we are running a lot higher So what? We're running at three points per game if you just count the last game we played, or 1.44 if you count the last three. Unless you know better than me, the points for all clubs are counted for the entire season starting in August, not from when our manager says "the team is ready now" sometime in early October. I think we can make the playoffs , but the fact is we are running at 1.44 for the season so far (including our recent run) so to get to 1.9 is a big ask. Our awful start is a massive burden, and is the reason we are still further away from the play offs now than we were before a single ball was kicked in the summer. So in terms of making the play offs we still haven't made any incremental progress. Until we get the gap down to nine points between us and sixth, then we are really on our way. Three wins out of three coming up might do it. Edited 24 November, 2009 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 24 November, 2009 Author Share Posted 24 November, 2009 So what? We're running at three points per game if you just count the last game we played, or 1.44 if you count the last three. Unless you know better than me, the points for all clubs are counted for the entire season starting in August, not from when our manager says "the team is ready now" sometime in early October. I think we can make the playoffs , but the fact is we are running at 1.44 for the season so far (including our recent run) so to get to 1.9 is a big ask. Our awful start is a massive burden, and is the reason we are still further away from the play offs now than we were before a single ball was kicked in the summer. So in terms of making the play offs we still haven't made any incremental progress. Until we get the gap down to nine points between us and sixth, then we are really on our way. Three wins out of three coming up might do it. this team was not together at/before the start of the season and so,as you well know, the ability of the team (without Jaidi, Trottman, Hammond, Lambert, connolly, Papa, Antonio) and without the management of Wilkins and Downs - to gain points is not the same as one with those. The last 8 league games - good mix of home and away, types and quality of opponents, and over the whole of October and November has achieved...17 points. 2.125 points per game. I don't think for a moment this will continue - but it is a more logical stat than yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAFE_SAINT Posted 25 November, 2009 Share Posted 25 November, 2009 2 points a game is a big ask- as that usally puts you in the top 2. 46x2=92 points. Its league winning form. Big ask. But before todaywe were 15points adrift of 6th now 12. Just have to keep going and hope- I think we'll finish 9h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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