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Stats to make play offs for info


NickG

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They won their first 6 or 7 games which helped.

 

They also lost quite a few games late on in the season when their campaign ran out of steam a little.

 

We have lost three games this season. If we could keep it to that, we are laughing.

 

I would like us to target winning every game from now on. This would help me collect on my bets... ;)

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Last 5 seasons:

2004/05 Champions Luton Town 98 points, 2nd Hull City 86.

2005/06 Champions Southend 82 points, 2nd Colchester Utd. 79.

2006/07 Champions Sc unthorpe 91 points, 2nd Bristol City 85.

2007/08 Champions Swansea City 92 points, 2nd Nottm Forest 82.

2008/09 Champions Leicester City 96 points, 2nd Peterborough 89.

 

90 points should win the championship and 84 should get automatic promotion, although MK Dons failed last season with 87.

Edited by krissyboy31
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Whilst it is still a mathematical possibility, it should remain a goal, but we shouldn't consider the season a failure if we don't make it.

 

As much as we all like to dream, our single biggest objective remains survival.

 

If we continue to progress in the way we have and fail to make the play offs, assuming we keep the majority of the squad together, we will be very well placed for a full scale promotion push next season.

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Whilst it is still a mathematical possibility, it should remain a goal, but we shouldn't consider the season a failure if we don't make it.

 

As much as we all like to dream, our single biggest objective remains survival.

 

If we continue to progress in the way we have and fail to make the play offs, assuming we keep the majority of the squad together, we will be very well placed for a full scale promotion push next season.

 

There are ninety points up for grabs with possibly the strongest squad in the league and certainly the best backed financially.

 

Our Chief Exec told the Chairman of Charlton that he is aiming for the top, why shouldn't we?

 

It is easy to close a gap of 14 points over 30 games - especially when you consider that for every team we beat we deprive them of 3 or 6 points.

 

To target survival with our resources is crmininal.

 

Imagine if Chelsea were fined 10 points this season and started next season on minus ten. Do you imagine that Ancelotti would be targeting fourth bottom??

 

If we are not promoted so be it, but it should not be for want of trying.

 

For one thing, to be promoted next year we will have to beat these teams regularly. And if we can't do it now, why should we be able to do it in 12 months?? What will change??

 

We've had ten games. We've built a decent first 11. We're playing good football (three games in a row if you count an unlucky defeat to Rovers). We should be looking to ASSERT ourselves on teams who can only dream of our recourses, support and infrastructure.

 

It is time to shake off the inferiority complex that dogs this club.

 

Winning demands winners.

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I'll be more convinced when we've strung together a winning sequence of at least 4 league games. Still think we will need some luck (and excellent form) to reach the play-offs this season

 

agree. Next few games will give us v good indication - is this form continuing or even improving?

 

Hopefully it won't take many games to stop any silly talk about just avoiding relegation etc

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There are ninety points up for grabs with possibly the strongest squad in the league and certainly the best backed financially.

 

Our Chief Exec told the Chairman of Charlton that he is aiming for the top, why shouldn't we?

 

It is easy to close a gap of 14 points over 30 games - especially when you consider that for every team we beat we deprive them of 3 or 6 points.

 

To target survival with our resources is crmininal.

 

Imagine if Chelsea were fined 10 points this season and started next season on minus ten. Do you imagine that Ancelotti would be targeting fourth bottom??

 

If we are not promoted so be it, but it should not be for want of trying.

 

For one thing, to be promoted next year we will have to beat these teams regularly. And if we can't do it now, why should we be able to do it in 12 months?? What will change??

 

We've had ten games. We've built a decent first 11. We're playing good football (three games in a row if you count an unlucky defeat to Rovers). We should be looking to ASSERT ourselves on teams who can only dream of our recourses, support and infrastructure.

 

It is time to shake off the inferiority complex that dogs this club.

 

Winning demands winners.

 

v good post

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There are ninety points up for grabs with possibly the strongest squad in the league and certainly the best backed financially.

 

Our Chief Exec told the Chairman of Charlton that he is aiming for the top, why shouldn't we?

 

It is easy to close a gap of 14 points over 30 games - especially when you consider that for every team we beat we deprive them of 3 or 6 points.

 

To target survival with our resources is crmininal.

 

Imagine if Chelsea were fined 10 points this season and started next season on minus ten. Do you imagine that Ancelotti would be targeting fourth bottom??

 

If we are not promoted so be it, but it should not be for want of trying.

 

For one thing, to be promoted next year we will have to beat these teams regularly. And if we can't do it now, why should we be able to do it in 12 months?? What will change??

 

We've had ten games. We've built a decent first 11. We're playing good football (three games in a row if you count an unlucky defeat to Rovers). We should be looking to ASSERT ourselves on teams who can only dream of our recourses, support and infrastructure.

 

It is time to shake off the inferiority complex that dogs this club.

 

Winning demands winners.

 

 

Call me an old slag, but I'm back with you again. :D

 

To be fair to me I did say we should be aiming for the play offs (ie Championship winning form) all summer and up until we lost to Rovers when it just looked mathmatically impossible and, I admit it, I wobbled.

 

I now think we are going to go on one of those 22 out of 24 points type runs. It is clicking very, very nicely.

 

But I was talking about play offs all summer while the supposed "realists" were bleating on about scraping survival.

 

We're going to do it. I'm going to Oldham for first away game of the season and cannot wait.

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A few musings from a non-Full member who is quite good with numbers...

 

    Getting between 64 and 69 is going to be tough but is not impossible. My hope is that we can achieve this, but I am not going to make any expectations that we will. My only expectation is that we will finish well clear of relegation.

    As some have pedantically suggested, in actual fact because we will have to gain an extra ten points, the actual points needed could be a tiny bit smaller as it will reduce the amount of points that others can get. However, ten points less for other teams divided between 23 teams is not a lot, so the difference is negligible and worrying about it is definitely very pedantic!

    If you did want to be pedantic and worry about those ten points, you would potentially be wrong to assume that they would come predominantly from teams higher up the table. While teams in the top half would between them have more points that could be taken back to contribute to the extra ten points needed by Saints, on average Saints are likely to claim more points from teams in the lower half of the table, because they are the teams that lose more games. So the contribution could actually be larger from the lower table teams!

    Both NickG and MLG were correct on the other thread! They were just arguing two different things! MLG was right to say that if you go ahead of the team in 7th, you move into 7th position, while NickG was right to say that if Scünthorpe had got two less points than they did they would still have been promoted (although of course if they had lost those two points playing Tranmere, the team in 7th, then that would not have been the case, as this would have implied that instead of beating Tranmere they would have drawn against them and thus Tranmere would themselves have had one extra point!) Ultimately though the argument was again very pedantic!!

 

Hmm, I think we should have a competition to see who is the best pedant in this forum... do you think I'd win?!! (Cue: someone pointing out some error in my argument...!!)

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34 games left - law of averages might say that 1/3 of these games would be wins (i.e. 11), 1/3 draws and the rest losses. So, let's give the team a little advantage and say we win 12, draw 11 and lose 11. That's a total of 52 for the season and so not enough to get to play-offs, but will be a respectable finish given where we started. It's also much more realistic taking into account rubbish ref decisions, injuries etc etc. I think mid-table is about right ready for a mighty push next season and this fits exactly with the clubs 5 year plan. Anything above 52 pts will require huge luck and will be a massive bonus IMO.

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34 games left -

 

102 points available... 70(ish) required to achieve 6th position... we can afford about 5 draws & 4 losses, it's a tough task, but, (& i'm sure most on here agree) we do have a squad/manager/set-up/fanbase/financial backing that most in this league would cut their left testy off for, we have also had enough time to get over the "gelling period"/no preseason excuses, so I think it is a realistic target.

 

I am sure many on here have had to work to targets (I have). A target is designed to stretch you & make you preform at your best & that is what I want for Saints. Sometimes you miss your target, but if you have any interest or ambition in your job, you aim to meet it, all anyone can ask is that you try your best and push yourself.

 

when we were in the prem, our target was (maybe) tophalf, & we were delighted when we achieved it but still happy when we survived. Similarly I want us to aim top 6 this year, whilst it is still achievable at least & will be happy with top half.

 

Mere survival inL1 this year is not an achievement (imho) & I would be very disappointed with Saints if that's all we are aiming for.

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Could we win half of our remaining games? I don't see why not. Throw in the usual mixture of draws & defeats we could reach mid 60's in points.

 

Not enough but, if we win slightly more than half, say 20 games instead of 17 we could get ourselves into the low 70's. That would give us a chance.

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A few musings from a non-Full member who is quite good with numbers...

 

    Getting between 64 and 69 is going to be tough but is not impossible. My hope is that we can achieve this, but I am not going to make any expectations that we will. My only expectation is that we will finish well clear of relegation.

    As some have pedantically suggested, in actual fact because we will have to gain an extra ten points, the actual points needed could be a tiny bit smaller as it will reduce the amount of points that others can get. However, ten points less for other teams divided between 23 teams is not a lot, so the difference is negligible and worrying about it is definitely very pedantic!

    If you did want to be pedantic and worry about those ten points, you would potentially be wrong to assume that they would come predominantly from teams higher up the table. While teams in the top half would between them have more points that could be taken back to contribute to the extra ten points needed by Saints, on average Saints are likely to claim more points from teams in the lower half of the table, because they are the teams that lose more games. So the contribution could actually be larger from the lower table teams!

    Both NickG and MLG were correct on the other thread! They were just arguing two different things! MLG was right to say that if you go ahead of the team in 7th, you move into 7th position, while NickG was right to say that if Scünthorpe had got two less points than they did they would still have been promoted (although of course if they had lost those two points playing Tranmere, the team in 7th, then that would not have been the case, as this would have implied that instead of beating Tranmere they would have drawn against them and thus Tranmere would themselves have had one extra point!) Ultimately though the argument was again very pedantic!!

 

Hmm, I think we should have a competition to see who is the best pedant in this forum... do you think I'd win?!! (Cue: someone pointing out some error in my argument...!!)

 

totally agree, point I made, maybe my first post wasn't clear enough hence me re-writing it in this thread.

There was clearly, from when it was first pointed out, two ways of looking at it.

Can't say it wasn't annoying that because someone else couldn't understand it they became arrogant, rude and ruined a football thread. Shame but suppose should expect most threads on here to turn into petty irrelevant arguements.

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Can't say it wasn't annoying that because someone else couldn't understand it they became arrogant, rude and ruined a football thread. Shame but suppose should expect most threads on here to turn into petty irrelevant arguements.

 

If you are referring to me then I don't see any 'arrogant' or 'rude' contribution that I've made to this thread although others can make up their own minds on that . I do however intensely dislike the record being selectively manipulated to suite an argument . I find that both misleading and worthy of criticism .

 

You been on here long enough to know that you're not always (or ever) going to get unanimous agreement on here when you put forward a contentious point of view - that is in the very nature of debate .

 

You Sir would do well to post a little less like a paid SFC cheer leader and a little more like an objective seeker of the truth sometimes .

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102 points available... 70(ish) required to achieve 6th position... we can afford about 5 draws & 4 losses, it's a tough task, but, (& i'm sure most on here agree) we do have a squad/manager/set-up/fanbase/financial backing that most in this league would cut their left testy off for, we have also had enough time to get over the "gelling period"/no preseason excuses, so I think it is a realistic target.

 

I am sure many on here have had to work to targets (I have). A target is designed to stretch you & make you preform at your best & that is what I want for Saints. Sometimes you miss your target, but if you have any interest or ambition in your job, you aim to meet it, all anyone can ask is that you try your best and push yourself.

 

when we were in the prem, our target was (maybe) tophalf, & we were delighted when we achieved it but still happy when we survived. Similarly I want us to aim top 6 this year, whilst it is still achievable at least & will be happy with top half.

 

Mere survival inL1 this year is not an achievement (imho) & I would be very disappointed with Saints if that's all we are aiming for.

 

 

Just to be clear, I did not say that I thought it was impossible because clearly mathematically it is possible. The PROBABILITY though is that it will not happen and that is a more realistic view IMO. However, I like every other Saints fan would be over the moon IF a play-off place is achieved.

 

Any competitive sport is about winning and I am sure AP sets out a game plan every match that he thinks will win the game for us. Clearly, aiming to win is the prime objective on matchday. Sometimes though it doesn't work and the -10 gave us a massive deficit to overcome this season with little margin for error, which is why Markus and Nicola set a 5 year recovery plan. Much of our margin for error was used up in early season draws/losses because of a missed pre-season.

 

It's coming together and we can be optimistic, but this needs to be channelled to the long-term rather than short. One thing is for sure, I will not be calling for AP to be sacked IF we don't make the play-offs, but there's a good chance some on here will because they want everything now. Good management and patience will get us back to the Prem - of that I can say that I am certain.

Edited by Saint Fan CaM
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All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

 

So would mid-table be an achievement, play-offs and automatic promotion as well. Don't forget we have won 15 points already this season, something 13 other sides haven't done yet.

 

As Cortese has stated he's looking to top the table, I hope you haven't found it too cringeworthy or is that just reserved for the fans?

 

 

To put the points into some context, here is possible point totals from the remaining games (34) to add to the 5 points already gained:

 

Pts...Win...Draw...Lose

50.....16....2........16

60.....19....3........12

70.....22....4.........8

80.....25....5.........4

90.....28....6.........0

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So would mid-table be an achievement, play-offs and automatic promotion as well. Don't forget we have won 15 points already this season, something 13 other sides haven't done yet.

 

As Cortese has stated he's looking to top the table, I hope you haven't found it too cringeworthy or is that just reserved for the fans?

 

 

To put the points into some context, here is possible point totals from the remaining games (34) to add to the 5 points already gained:

 

Pts...Win...Draw...Lose

50.....16....2........16

60.....19....3........12

70.....22....4.........8

80.....25....5.........4

90.....28....6.........0

 

Sounds simple, however I would expect something like this (which is still decent form). Win 16, draw 9, lose 9. 57 points + 5 = 62 points (around 12th position).

Edited by krissyboy31
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Sounds simple, however I would expect something like this (which is still decent form). Win 16, draw 9, lose 9. 57 points + 5 = 63 points (around 12th position).

 

I really can't see us losing another 9 games this season. I'd be surprised if we lose 9 in total.

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It will be interesting to see what happens in January if we have maneouvered ourselves into a position where the objective onlooker would consider us serious promotion candidates (whether through the play-offs or otherwise). If so one would think we would be able to attract some really good additions to supplement the squad, possibly even from our League One rivals.

 

If we can sign the likes of Jaidi, Lambert and Connoly when bottom of the league, who's to say we won't snap up Beckford/Jackson etc. when we look like promotion candidates?

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34 games left - law of averages might say that 1/3 of these games would be wins (i.e. 11), 1/3 draws and the rest losses. So, let's give the team a little advantage and say we win 12, draw 11 and lose 11. That's a total of 52 for the season and so not enough to get to play-offs, but will be a respectable finish given where we started. It's also much more realistic taking into account rubbish ref decisions, injuries etc etc. I think mid-table is about right ready for a mighty push next season and this fits exactly with the clubs 5 year plan. Anything above 52 pts will require huge luck and will be a massive bonus IMO.

 

 

Twelve wins and eleven draws in 34 games is 47 points, 1.3 points per game, the kind of form that would get us about 17th/18th - lower mid table form.

 

For the backroom staff and the team we'd expensively assembled, that would be pretty disgraceful form - we shouldn't be aiming to be "average" from now on.

 

Not sure we should be benchmarking ourselves against what Exeter and Yeovil are looking to achieve.

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Sounds simple, however I would expect something like this (which is still decent form). Win 16, draw 9, lose 9. 57 points + 5 = 63 points (around 12th position).

 

I wish for play-offs but expect to be mid-table but I'm only a fan. I like the attitude of NC and how he's serious with driving this club to be setting goals to win things, despite how tough they maybe.

 

Now the way the team has turn things around over the 12 games is great and I can see if the attitude of the footballing side matches NCs' then midtable will be dissappointing but the minimum level achieved.

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Why are the only 2 options 'play offs' or 'scrape survival'? I think a realistic target would be a respectable top half finish. Play offs would be a fantastic achievement and anything below 12th would IMO be failure.

 

I think that's about right.

 

The key is to maintain the objective view of Saints as a well-run, well-supported, financially powerful club that is bound to get promoted from this league at some point soon.

 

If we do that we will continue to be able to sign the likes of Connoly, Jaidi, Lambert, Waigo and we will get promoted at some point soon!

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yes i believe Sunderland did it under Roy Keane.

 

And to the rest of your post, using our current season average is unbalanced as the team as changed greatly in that period. Id say wait for the next 6 games to unfold then recalculate. January will be interesting too

 

They had an incredible run with Keane after being rooted to the bottom as we are. We need a similar epic run. Unlikely but utterly possible given the way the team is beginning to gel and the possibility of further investment in the first team throughout the season if our good form continues.

 

On paper we have one of the best squads in the division and our look on paper is beginning to show signs of transferring to the pitch.

 

We have to win each game thgat you would expect us to win - against teams from about 8th down and pick up points against the top 8, which we showed signs of doing even before the current team selection bedded down.

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I'm sure we've had this debate before. You get 1 point for a draw and 3 for a win. As far as I am aware 2 points are never awarded. Why do people keep making this mistake?

 

 

:smt100 This is utterly brilliant! I honestly have no idea whether your serious (i.e. a complete moron) or taking the urine (i.e. a bit of a prat). I'm sure that either way once you've woken up you'll claim the former.:smt100:smt100

:confused: :rock:

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:smt100 This is utterly brilliant! I honestly have no idea whether your serious (i.e. a complete moron) or taking the urine (i.e. a bit of a prat). I'm sure that either way once you've woken up you'll claim the former.:smt100:smt100

:confused: :rock:

 

Obviously I meant the latter - this is contagious!:rolleyes:

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Not sure we should be benchmarking ourselves against what Exeter and Yeovil are looking to achieve.

 

 

Do you honestly believe that Exeter and Yeovil are looking to achieve anything but the highest position possible???!?!! That really is being completely disrepectful of those clubs and frankly the wrong mindset entirely...i.e. "we're such a big club we have the right to win everything". I would bet my house on their respective Managers telling their teams to go out and win every match without exception and regardless of tactics.

 

With this in mind I cannot for minute understand why you think your above comment has anything whatsoever to do with the opening post, which suggests that by averages we're odds on for a play-off place.

 

Once again let's be clear - it MAY happen, we might all WANT it to happen. But given the start to the season it's very unlikely to happen, even though our form currently may suggest otherwise. For that reason, I completely disagree that a mid-table to lower placing would be 'disgraceful' as you put it THIS SEASON. Next season - completely different kettle of chips.

Edited by Saint Fan CaM
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Do you honestly believe that Exeter and Yeovil are looking to achieve anything but the highest position possible???!?!! That really is being completely disrepectful of those clubs and frankly the wrong mindset entirely...i.e. "we're such a big club we have the right to win everything". I would bet my house on their respective Managers telling their teams to go out and win every match without exception and regardless of tactics.

 

With this in mind I cannot for minute understand why you think your above comment has anything whatsoever to do with the opening post, which suggests that by averages we're odds on for a play-off place.

 

Once again let's be clear - it MAY happen, we might all WANT it to happen. But given the start to the season it's very unlikely to happen, even though our form currently may suggest otherwise. For that reason, I completely disagree that a mid-table to lower placing would be 'disgraceful' as you put it THIS SEASON. Next season - completely different kettle of chips.

 

 

Do you honestly believe Exeter or Yeovil have anything like the resources we have to hand?

 

Your "law of averages" - win a third, draw a third, lose a third - is ridiculous in that we have the most expensively assembled squad, and easily the most expensive back room staff in the entire division.

 

We should be pushing for something like 1.6 to 2 points per game for the rest of the season - ie play-off form to get us upper mid table.

 

And its not about disrespecting other clubs - we are just bigger than them.

 

And I'd bet my house that when the boot was on the other foot - when we were the skint team in the CCC or in the Prem - you were bleating about "how-can-we-possibly-compete-we're-skint" etc etc.

 

Well you can't have it both ways - if it's a disadvantage to be poor, it's an advantage to be rich. And we are rich in many ways.

 

And we need to do better than win a third, draw a third.

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I'm happy that more and more fans seem to be ditching the 'striving for mediocracy' mentality.

 

I don't think many people had that mentality, they just realised that when you are turning a team round from "utter tripe" to "pretty useful" there will probably be a period of "ho-hum" in the middle.

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I think Nick' OP, of what is needed for a play-off spot is a tad optimistic. I think, looking back through the years, that we will need around 73-75 points and therefore over 2 points a game (championship form) from now on. The most I can see us getting is late 60's (maybe 68.) which would leave us around mid-table. That is not being negative or defeatist, just realistic. Next season however, anything lest than top 2 would be a failure IMO.

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Agree that about 75 points is needed to get into 6th place, so just 70 to go ....

 

Which means something like Win 21, Draw 7, Lose 6.

That won't be easy, but after watching Friday night's performance, by no means impossible.

Southend looked a decent-enough side, but we were comfortably in control from first to last.

There's no doubt in my mind that this Saints side in this form is good enough to get to the play-offs. Keeping everyone fit and in form is the issue.

 

And although a md-table, or even top-8 finish would be a reasonable result given where we started, the reality of that outcome is being stuck in Div 1 for another season - would Lallana, Spiderman etc be prepared to put up with that? Much easier to hang on to them if we're back in the Championship.

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I'm happy that more and more fans seem to be ditching the 'striving for mediocracy' mentality.

 

 

Delldays - striving for mediocracy is a trait our previous Board were guilty of and to maintain that midset this season would see us relegated once again. If we strive for excellence (as we should), this will STILL not guarantee a top 6 place THIS SEASON unfortunately, largely because of all the adverse factors that the club has had to endure over the summer (i.e. since going bust).

 

We MIGHT get to the play-offs...we might not, but IMO this will not represent failure given the utter depths the club fell to in all respects.

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I think Nick' OP, of what is needed for a play-off spot is a tad optimistic. I think, looking back through the years, that we will need around 73-75 points and therefore over 2 points a game (championship form) from now on. The most I can see us getting is late 60's (maybe 68.) which would leave us around mid-table. That is not being negative or defeatist, just realistic. Next season however, anything lest than top 2 would be a failure IMO.

 

it wasn't based on opinion but the previous - I think I looked at about 7 seasons - often teams in play offs had more points but by far the most common threshold that would passed to secure that position was 69

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If you are referring to me then I don't see any 'arrogant' or 'rude' contribution that I've made to this thread although others can make up their own minds on that . I do however intensely dislike the record being selectively manipulated to suite an argument . I find that both misleading and worthy of criticism .

 

You been on here long enough to know that you're not always (or ever) going to get unanimous agreement on here when you put forward a contentious point of view - that is in the very nature of debate .

 

You Sir would do well to post a little less like a paid SFC cheer leader and a little more like an objective seeker of the truth sometimes .

 

lol - you didn't even post on the thread in question so I wasn't referring to you, I wonder why you thought someone saying posters were rude and arrogant were talking about you?;)

 

Although you last line is making a decent effort to make the cap fit!

 

And I appreciate your compliment on how I stay positive and support my team despite watching a lot of crap there over the years.

 

Classic post and cheered me up!

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