NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) most common points we would have needed, over last few years, to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Last year S****horpe would have made it with 74) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! Edited 10 October, 2009 by NickG
OttawaSaint Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Unfortunately by writing this thread, you have jinxed us back to scraping draws at home and losing away, thanks a bunch...
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) Need to do some changes to your workings Nick Last season 6th place got 76 points not 74 Edited 10 October, 2009 by Matthew Le God
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 Last season 6th place got 76 points not 74 yes but you only have to do better than the team in 7th to come 6th!
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 yes but you only have to do better than the team in 7th to come 6th! Umm no That would make you 7th! Saints would have had to get more points than the 6th place team for Saints to come 6th. And S****horpe got 76 points.
John B Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 most common points we would have needed, over last few years, to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Last year 74 would have got us play offs) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! But if you look at our last seven or eight games we dont get to the Play Offs It is going to be close but it is important to beat the clubs in the top ten of the table something we have yet to do.
View From The Top Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Didn't Leeds start with -10 and get to the play offs?
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 Umm no That would make you 7th! Saints would have had to get more points than the 6th place team for Saints to come 6th. And S****horpe got 76 points. no if you are higher than the team in 7th that makes you 6th!
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Didn't Leeds start with -10 and get to the play offs? Even better achievement than that as it was -15. Basically we need top 3 form for the rest of the season.
Thedelldays Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Didn't Leeds start with -10 and get to the play offs? -15 I think. But they went I'm a daft amount of games winning them one after another it can be done
Badger Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Didn't Leeds start with -10 and get to the play offs? -15,but they had cleared that deficit in about 6 games.
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 no if you are higher than the team in 7th that makes you 6th! I wonder how long you will take for this to click with you? If Saints got 75 points last season they would have been below 6th place team S****horpe who had 76 points. Saints would have been 7th with 75 points.
View From The Top Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 -15,but they had cleared that deficit in about 6 games. Wow. I didn't realise that!
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) Two questions Nick You are participating in a 100m race, you overtake the 2nd person what position are you in? By your logic you would say 1st. When in fact you would actually be 2nd. Watch from 2 minutes 20 seconds You are participating in a league you overtake the 7th place team what position are you in? Edited 10 October, 2009 by Matthew Le God
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 I wonder how long you will take for this to click with you? If Saints got 75 points last season they would have been below 6th place team S****horpe who had 76 points. Saints would have been 7th with 75 points. if S****horpe had 74 point last year that would have been enough to make the play off. They didn't need 76 to do it. Clicked?
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 you really are looking hard to make an arguement! Tried to do a totally incontroversial thread with just figures to let each make their own opinion! Amazing
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) you really are looking hard to make an arguement! Tried to do a totally incontroversial thread with just figures to let each make their own opinion! Amazing Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. Edited 10 October, 2009 by Matthew Le God
hypochondriac Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. You are correct. I think nickg is assuming that we are s****horpe from that year when of course we aren't.
the colonel Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. MLG you are correct. NG if you want to go into 6th place you have to do better than the existing 6th place not 7th!!!!
ooohTerryHurlock Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Umm no That would make you 7th! Saints would have had to get more points than the 6th place team for Saints to come 6th. And S****horpe got 76 points. Fantastic!!! That little exchange made it worth while coming on here tonight!! ...I'm glad i'm not the only one that makes myself look a complete tool fromtime to time!!lol
ooohTerryHurlock Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) no if you are higher than the team in 7th that makes you 6th! Give Up!!!!lololol......did you do maths at school!!! Edited 10 October, 2009 by ooohTerryHurlock
Flyer Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 no if you are higher than the team in 7th that makes you 6th! No, it makes you 7th, the team in 7th, becomes 8th and everyone else below drops a place too. To come in 6th, you have to beat the team in 6th. Youre wrong on that one.
Genk Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 You say average 2 points a game, so in theory every 6 games you need 3 wins and 3 draws or 4 wins & 2 losses. Will be hard, but looking at it this way I'm starting to think it is achievable now. I think it's going to come down to what happens in January in terms of Trottman & Mellis and one or two possible additions to the squad for when we are hit by injurys.
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. You are correct. I think nickg is assuming that we are s****horpe from that year when of course we aren't. the difference is I see your point! We were not in the league. If we were there would have been too many teams in it. so...if you look at the lowest team in the play off, they would have got into the play offs with the points I said! By you adding an extra team you would make all the sums wrong!
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. can't believe I am letting you annoy me!
Saint George Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Nicks right ...The rest of you are just incapable of seeing the big picture....74 points with a +14 GD, would have been enough for the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th placed teams to qualify for the play off's last season...
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 the difference is I see your point! We were not in the league. If we were there would have been too many teams in it. so...if you look at the lowest team in the play off, they would have got into the play offs with the points I said! By you adding an extra team you would make all the sums wrong! The point in doing analysis like this is to see how roughly the top 6 sides do in this league each year so you have to look at the points tally for the 6th best team for an idea of the points required. Your argument is flawed as you are putting Saints in the position of one of the six sides which invalidates the whole point in seeing how many points teams get in League One and I'm not the only one in this thread to point it out to you.
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Nicks right ...The rest of you are just incapable of seeing the big picture....74 points with a +14 GD, would have been enough for the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th placed teams to qualify for the play off's last season... Maths detention for you 74 points(GD +14) would make you below 6th place S****horpe.
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 IF S****horpe had 2 less point i.e. 74 (GD+14) they would have still made the play offs! You are the one being thick as I totally get your point but you seem unable to see that the above is 100% true!
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 Nicks right ...The rest of you are just incapable of seeing the big picture....74 points with a +14 GD, would have been enough for the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th placed teams to qualify for the play off's last season... thank f for that! somone with some sense!
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) I totally get your point You don't see my point because you still believe this statement I quote below is correct. Watch the youtube video I posted earlier from 2 minutes 20 seconds. yes but you only have to do better than the team in 7th to come 6th! Two questions Nick You are participating in a 100m race, you overtake the 2nd person what position are you in? By your logic you would say 1st. When in fact you would actually be 2nd. Watch from 2 minutes 20 seconds You are participating in a league you overtake the 7th place team what position are you in? Edited 10 October, 2009 by Matthew Le God
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 leave you to enjoy your debate here. Please leave other one, for the spirit it was intended. http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=17181
Rod Le Shearer Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 thank f for that! somone with some sense! but your arguement has got two sides,even from your point of view.. if I get you right,what you are saying is: "if Saints were in that league,instead of (insert team),then 74 points would have got us to the playoffs". but by saying so,you assume Saints would "replace" one of the top six teams in that table. If saints "replaced" the club at bottom,74 points wouldn`t be enough,S****horpe would still have had 76. if Saints "replaced" any of the top six sides,however, 74 would be sufficient.
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 but your arguement has got two sides,even from your point of view.. if I get you right,what you are saying is: "if Saints were in that league,instead of (insert team),then 74 points would have got us to the playoffs". but by saying so,you assume Saints would "replace" one of the top six teams in that table. If saints "replaced" the club at bottom,74 points wouldn`t be enough,S****horpe would still have had 76. if Saints "replaced" any of the top six sides,however, 74 would be sufficient. Exactly my point. Defeats the point of analysing how top League One teams do if you take one of them out of the analysis. Of course this argument is pointless and silly though, but I don't give in when I know 100% I'm correct
Stepgar Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Yes, it is a pointless arguement but I'm trying to teach you something that you are failing to grasp. Sorry, its the teacher in me If you overtake the 7th place team then there are still 6 teams above you and the 6th place team has 76 points. So if Saints were in the league last year they would have to get more than the 6th place team to come in the top six. A bit pandantic?
Rod Le Shearer Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Exactly my point. Defeats the point of analysing how top League One teams do if you take one of them out of the analysis. Of course this argument is pointless and silly though, but I don't give in when I know 100% I'm correct I know what you mean,mate ! for the record, I agree with NickG`s idea with this thread. We both can,and possibly should, be able to reach the playoffs this year. I`d give it a 55-45 % chance not enough to make a wager,but enough to make this season very,very exciting !
hamster Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 Nick have you taken into account that to make the play-offs we have to take an extra 10 points from the opposition? There comes a point when those points that worked against us at the start, work against the opposition. I am struggling to explain it, but any mathematicians on here will know what I am trying to say.
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 A bit pandantic? Very pedantic and pointless But Nick G is either stubborn, innumerate or a combination of the two.
Rod Le Shearer Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 (edited) Nick have you taken into account that to make the play-offs we have to take an extra 10 points from the opposition? There comes a point when those points that worked against us at the start, work against the opposition. I am struggling to explain it, but any mathematicians on here will know what I am trying to say. a very good point,which makes it even more important for us to beat the teams floating around 5-10`th position. If I`m going to try and explain what you are saying,I`d go with this: Lets say we end up on 75 points. That means we would have actually picked 85 points from the opposition. this means that from the total of points dealt out that season,the other teams in the league would have ten point less between them. since the top teams naturally are the ones with the highest percentage of points,this would affect them the most ! does this sound about right ?? hmmm.. Edited 10 October, 2009 by Rod Le Shearer
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