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Posted

9 points from safety with some pretty crap teams directly above us...

 

would like to think (hope more like) we are clear of the relegation zone by xmas...

 

not too unrealistic IMO...plenty of games between now and then...

Posted

Obvious next move - probably a realistic timeframe to achieve it. But some seem to think we should of got into +tive points games ago - so I guess there will be a whole lot of whinging going on if we dont make it out of the drop zone within the next month.

Posted
We'll go on a run now... that I guarantee.

 

Anyway... looks like Barnes will be gone before we meet Tranmere :-(

 

I'll hold u to that guarantee ;) :D

Posted
We'll go on a run now... that I guarantee.

 

Anyway... looks like Barnes will be gone before we meet Tranmere :-(

 

Shocking start for John. Pressure could be on Roy Keane at Ipswich as well - see they lost a 2 goal lead last game and got beat in the last minute today. Rooted to the bottom of the CCC - my how times change eh.

Posted

Next milestone for me is to get off the bottom of the table, then out of the relegation zone. I would look to be off the bottom within another five games maximum. Neither Wycombe or Tranmere are looking good!

Posted
Next milestone for me is to get off the bottom of the table, then out of the relegation zone. I would look to be off the bottom within another five games maximum. Neither Wycombe or Tranmere are looking good!

 

Yeah, agree. That's what I planned to post. :-)

1. Get to 23rd place (ie off the bottom) (Oct)

2. Get to 21st place (out of relegation places) (Nov)

3. Get to midtable (by xmas) (Dec)

4. Attract some good loanees in Jan sales! (Jan)

5. Push on to playoff places by the end of the season. (Jan to May)

Posted

Just worked out that if we don't get out of the drop zone by new years we actually have been in the drop zone for a whole year.....That sort of puts it into perspective how long this club has been struggling. We have played 4 of the top 6 and only played 4 teams below 14th. So we have a slightly easier run in now so fingers crossed should pick up points a bit quicker then we have thus far. It would be great to get out of there before the end of the year and go into 2010 strongley.

Posted
Shocking start for John. Pressure could be on Roy Keane at Ipswich as well - see they lost a 2 goal lead last game and got beat in the last minute today. Rooted to the bottom of the CCC - my how times change eh.

 

Lol, did you see the Roy Keane interview on the Football League Show ? When asked about his Ipswich future he said nothing but if looks could kill ! Scary stuff.

Posted
Yeah, agree. That's what I planned to post. :-)

1. Get to 23rd place (ie off the bottom) (Oct)

2. Get to 21st place (out of relegation places) (Nov)

3. Get to midtable (by xmas) (Dec)

4. Attract some good loanees in Jan sales! (Jan)

5. Push on to playoff places by the end of the season. (Jan to May)

 

Pedant alert.

 

I think 4 teams get relegated, so we need to keep our eyes fixed on 20th place.

 

I think point 3 is a bit optimistic, though. If we're 12th by Xmas, we are cruising to the play-offs.

 

Put another way, the more games we've played, the less the ten point burden affects our league position. At present, we've effectively been docked 0.9 points per game. But by the end of the seaon, it will average out at just over 0.2 points per game.

 

This means our rise up the table is more likely to be exponential than steady. If we're tenth with 8-10 games to go (e.g. in March), we're probably a fair bet to make the play-offs.

Posted
Pedant alert.

 

I think 4 teams get relegated, so we need to keep our eyes fixed on 20th place.

 

I think point 3 is a bit optimistic, though. If we're 12th by Xmas, we are cruising to the play-offs.

 

Put another way, the more games we've played, the less the ten point burden affects our league position. At present, we've effectively been docked 0.9 points per game. But by the end of the seaon, it will average out at just over 0.2 points per game.

 

This means our rise up the table is more likely to be exponential than steady. If we're tenth with 8-10 games to go (e.g. in March), we're probably a fair bet to make the play-offs.

 

Thats just what I want continuous growth upwards along an exponential curve where y=(x squared) ! We can now see the bootom of the exponential drop behind us and we are on the upwards slope at last! I knew all that calculus at school would come in handy one day!

Posted

agree we shouldn't get carried away but it looked another good step in the right direction.

 

We need a run of 3 wins to show we can build confidence.

 

We did easily win the game tho.

Posted
Yeah, agree. That's what I planned to post. :-)

1. Get to 23rd place (ie off the bottom) (Oct)

2. Get to 21st place (out of relegation places) (Nov)

3. Get to midtable (by xmas) (Dec)

4. Attract some good loanees in Jan sales! (Jan)

5. Push on to playoff places by the end of the season. (Jan to May)

 

 

This is slightly ambitious.

 

Currently fifth from bottom are on 11 points, a point per game.

 

Assuming the fifth from bottom team continues to accrue a measly point per game....

 

We need Championship Winning form (2 points per game) over the next ten games to overtake fifth from bottom.

 

After we play our 21st game of the season (home v Tranmere, 12th December) and have maintained two points per game, then we will overtake fifth from bottom at that point. (Saints 22 points, fifth bottom 21 points).

 

So with Championship winning form we'll be out of the drop zone with one game to spare before Christmas. Not quite getting to mid table by Christmas.

 

It's a long slog.

Posted
It'll come... earlier than Xmas.

 

 

YES, I commented on that on another thread.

 

If we continue, we'll be clear of the pit by the end of November.

Just look at the form (or lack of it) of those teams above us in the drop zone.

Posted
Yeah, agree. That's what I planned to post. :-)

1. Get to 23rd place (ie off the bottom) (Oct)

2. Get to 21st place (out of relegation places) (Nov)

3. Get to midtable (by xmas) (Dec)

4. Attract some good loanees in Jan sales! (Jan)

5. Push on to playoff places by the end of the season. (Jan to May)

 

 

 

good planning Winchester, but you forgot to add....

 

6. winning the play-offs in May.!

 

COYR !!!

Posted
This is slightly ambitious.

 

Currently fifth from bottom are on 11 points, a point per game.

 

Assuming the fifth from bottom team continues to accrue a measly point per game....

 

We need Championship Winning form (2 points per game) over the next ten games to overtake fifth from bottom.

 

After we play our 21st game of the season (home v Tranmere, 12th December) and have maintained two points per game, then we will overtake fifth from bottom at that point. (Saints 22 points, fifth bottom 21 points).

 

So with Championship winning form we'll be out of the drop zone with one game to spare before Christmas. Not quite getting to mid table by Christmas.

 

It's a long slog.

 

Yes, agree with that. We will also have a few setbacks on the way (we are Saints after all) but out of the bottom 4 by Christmas is achievable, I think anything else is being too optimistic.

Posted (edited)
Yeah, agree. That's what I planned to post. :-)

1. Get to 23rd place (ie off the bottom) (Oct)

2. Get to 21st place (out of relegation places) (Nov)

3. Get to midtable (by xmas) (Dec)

4. Attract some good loanees in Jan sales! (Jan)

5. Push on to playoff places by the end of the season. (Jan to May)

 

 

Simples!

Edited by Sold To The Man @ The Bar
Posted
good planning Winchester, but you forgot to add....

 

6. winning the play-offs in May.!

 

COYR !!!

 

I didn't want to appear TOO ambitious, but yes ...

6, win playoffs in May

7. selected as wildcard entry for automatic promotion direct to the Premier League (Aug!)

 

woohoo! And Cortese had a 5 year plan - wuss! In my world we made it inside 9 months!!

LOL

Posted

I have to agree with those who say the next step is to get off the bottom, not out of the zone.

 

Small steps, one at a time.

 

Based on recent form from the current team & squad (which we haven't had for the whole season), I'm very confident that we'll be off the bottom by the end of this month, and out of the zone by the end of the year.

 

I, for one, will be very happy with that. Onwards and upwards.

Posted

Yep, next step is to get off the bottom, but after that we should be looking to pick up one place at a time with a view to getting out of the relegation places around mid December. I would have said earlier but there are only three league games in November. The good thing is we only have to play Norwich of the top performing teams between now and then so we have a run of winnable matches.

 

If we can get some momentum behind us we should be able to go on a roll now that we seem to have sorted out scoring from open play. Just got to hope that Lambert, Hammond and Lallana stay fit and we don't pick up and suspensions.

Posted
...an exponential curve where y=(x squared) ! ...

 

As a pedant, that's not exponential :-P

 

Step 1: +Points around the start of October is acheived

Step 2: 23rd around the start of November

Step 3: 20th around Christmas

Step 4: Safe by mid-April

 

This would be a good season for me :-)

Posted

Out of bottom four by Cmas must be the target and if that rate is maintained we would be mid table by March, and then, I can't work the next bit out but it could become more difficult confused

Posted
As a pedant, that's not exponential :-P

 

Step 1: +Points around the start of October is acheived

Step 2: 23rd around the start of November

Step 3: 20th around Christmas

Step 4: Safe by mid-April

 

This would be a good season for me :-)

 

That sounds like a sensible aim. It seems most are agreed that out of the relegation zone by the end of the year will be a good showing. Dont forget 50 points is normally around the safety mark so we still have a long way to go before I stop worrying.

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