Legod Third Coming Posted 4 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Wishful thinking has it's place, certainly but it didn't keep us in the Premiership; it didn't win us the FA Cup in 2003; it didn't keep us in the CCC last season. Nor will building houses on sand ensure safety in an earthquake. Those of us who acknowledge realism are equally as fanatically Saints as you but recognise that the world is not tinged pink and that experience is a very hard taskmaster. 50+ years of trudging up to The Dell and SMS has taught me if nothing else that sh*t happens and seemingly sh*t happens more often at this club than at many others. So always take one little step at a time in your hopes and ambitions. We won on Saturday so let us HOPE that we might do so again next Friday. Hope didn't cost us Premiership/Championship status, nor lose us the FA Cup. As I said above, you can eat an aeroplane. We've swallowed a rivet. Next Friday maybe we can manage a piece of undercarriage. Then who knows... It is only 16 points. It's a hill not a mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Hope didn't cost us Premiership/Championship status, nor lose us the FA Cup. As I said above, you can eat an aeroplane. We've swallowed a rivet. Next Friday maybe we can manage a piece of undercarriage. Then who knows... It is only 16 points. It's a hill not a mountain. jesus christ...your examples get more daft every week...:smt036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 I said before a ball was kicked that we'd make the play offs and win them. I see no reason to change that view. Just because a view is unrealistic doesn't mean a person is not entitled to stick with it, but its wrong to say there is no reason to change as there patently is. Evidence since first ball was kicked:- P W D L Pts Team in 6th place (Swindon) 11 4 6 1 18 Saints 11 2 6 3 12 - 10 = 2 Current form Swindon 5 points from last 9 Saints 4 points from last 9 But fortunately, as football fans hope is usually better than reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View From The Top Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Just because a view is unrealistic doesn't mean a person is not entitled to stick with it, but its wrong to say there is no reason to change as there patently is. Evidence since first ball was kicked:- P W D L Pts Team in 6th place (Swindon) 11 4 6 1 18 Saints 11 2 6 3 12 - 10 = 2 Current form Swindon 5 points from last 9 Saints 4 points from last 9 But fortunately, as football fans hope is usually better than reality! An achieveable target at the moment IMHO. Or do you not see constant improvement since the start of the season and don't think that will continue? Thankfully the players haven't written the season off in the 1st week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Wishful thinking has it's place, certainly but it didn't keep us in the Premiership; it didn't win us the FA Cup in 2003; it didn't keep us in the CCC last season. Nor will building houses on sand ensure safety in an earthquake. Those of us who acknowledge realism are equally as fanatically Saints as you but recognise that the world is not tinged pink and that experience is a very hard taskmaster. 50+ years of trudging up to The Dell and SMS has taught me if nothing else that sh*t happens and seemingly sh*t happens more often at this club than at many others. So always take one little step at a time in your hopes and ambitions. We won on Saturday so let us HOPE that we might do so again next Friday. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 as someone else suggested with the Hull example, it is often having a great run at the right time that counts. We need to take one step at a time, but there is every reason to hope that, come feb/march ,we might be in a position where a great run would nick us a place in the playoffs.(keeping our season alive at least) However that is a long way off, for now we need to be patient and stay behind the team. They are at least playing some entertaining stuff and scoring goals, even if there is much yet to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genk Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 I think it will end 1 Leeds 2 Charlton ------------ 3 Norwich 4 Bristol Rovers 5 Millwall 6 Colchester ------------- Don't think we will make it tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Is possible but very unlikely, we would need championship form just to stand a chance - even then we would need results to go our way. Portsmouth are "only 16 points" off top spot in the Prem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 4 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Is possible but very unlikely, we would need championship form just to stand a chance - even then we would need results to go our way. Portsmouth are "only 16 points" off top spot in the Prem. Lol - I won't be backing them to win it, but it is possible... The big difference between us and them is that we are Chelsea at the bottom of the league. And if they were, you probably wouldn't write them off just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 4 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 October, 2009 jesus christ...your examples get more daft every week...:smt036 Tell me DD, you do know who Monsieur Mange Tout is surely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonian Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 ive been watching the points gap between us and 6th place all season, a couple of weeks ago we were 18 points adrift, i actually got £50 at 30-1 (coral) on us getting promoted, its now 16 points and the odds are now 20-1, which reflects the improvement in the side. in my head i dont really think we wil do it, but if we can nibble the points gap down to single figures by xmas, a couple of new signings in january, then we must have a chance, if (a big if) we get to the play offs, we can beat anyone maybe an unlikely dream but its not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 CB, you forgot to mention that we achieved a three point gain on Gillingham that is irriversible. We also have a six point swing available on Leeds. And six point swings available on several top half teams. Of course we need a 16 point reverse on the teams in the play-offs. We have six point reverses available on some of them. We just need to win 5-6 more games than the remainder of the league between us and those in the top six. Don't understand this "swing" thing you've mentioned a couple of times. Yes Gillingham can never now get three points away from home against us this season, but so what? They can win lots of other games where we have no say in the result at all. Six pointers count between small groups at the top or bottom of a league, or in the closing stages of a season, but you can't apply that theory across every single club over three quarters of a season. Anyway, it is possible to make the play offs, but following the appalling start we've had (which you were raving about as Strachan-esque) it is now very very unlikely. We should have knocked off the ten points by September - that was possible/come on we can do it/we just have to believe/get behind the lads/etc/etc/etc - but we didn't. Anyway, Quite frankly I think you've underplayed things - why aren't we going to win the league outright? There's still 105 points to play for and who says we can't win every single game from here on in? Anyone who says we can't do it is a rubbish negative saints fan. You disgust me with your lame negative "let's scrape the playoffs" whining. We should be winning the league. Get a backbone man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 4 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Don't understand this "swing" thing you've mentioned a couple of times. Yes Gillingham can never now get three points away from home against us this season, but so what? They can win lots of other games where we have no say in the result at all. Six pointers count between small groups at the top or bottom of a league, or in the closing stages of a season, but you can't apply that theory across every single club over three quarters of a season. Anyway, it is possible to make the play offs, but following the appalling start we've had (which you were raving about as Strachan-esque) it is now very very unlikely. We should have knocked off the ten points by September - that was possible/come on we can do it/we just have to believe/get behind the lads/etc/etc/etc - but we didn't. Anyway, Quite frankly I think you've underplayed things - why aren't we going to win the league outright? There's still 105 points to play for and who says we can't win every single game from here on in? Anyone who says we can't do it is a rubbish negative saints fan. You disgust me with your lame negative "let's scrape the playoffs" whining. We should be winning the league. Get a backbone man. Essentially there are several teams on whom we can gain an advantage that, as you rightly point out, only stands in our favour if we both then win other games. I think you are right to an extent. I do hope that the club is aiming to win every game - I suspect this is how some of the other succesful managers have operated... It's a strange idea I first noticed Bob Paisley and then Jose Mourinho try. Funny, but it seems to work. I think even Alex Ferguson has been known to give it a go. While I can comprehend the losing mentality that has crept into our fans, I don't think we need to accept it as irriversible. Yes, we started slowly. But winning the remaining games this season is well within our compass. Surely, since we are the Chelsea of this league?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genk Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 (edited) How many points did 6th place did get last season? EDIT: Found out myself. It was 76 points. So in theory we need another 74 points roughly to be contenders. 25 Wins would get that from 35 remaining games. Is that do-able? I'm unsure Edited 4 October, 2009 by Genk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinR Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 How many points did 6th place did get last season? EDIT: Found out myself. It was 76 points. So in theory we need another 74 points roughly to be contenders. 25 Wins would get that from 35 remaining games. Is that do-able? I'm unsure Unlikely. Having a PMA is one thing- but thats just not realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 Essentially there are several teams on whom we can gain an advantage that, as you rightly point out, only stands in our favour if we both then win other games. I think you are right to an extent. I do hope that the club is aiming to win every game - I suspect this is how some of the other succesful managers have operated... It's a strange idea I first noticed Bob Paisley and then Jose Mourinho try. Funny, but it seems to work. I think even Alex Ferguson has been known to give it a go. While I can comprehend the losing mentality that has crept into our fans, I don't think we need to accept it as irriversible. Yes, we started slowly. But winning the remaining games this season is well within our compass. Surely, since we are the Chelsea of this league?? aside from the question of whether we can get enough points, I really don't want to think of the Saints as the chelsea of L1, or anywhere else for that matter ! Makes me feel bad all over!!!! back to the question, it would just be brilliant to be going into the spring with an outside chance of the playoffs.But its all a long way off yet. The very idea of Saints winning more than half their remaining games takes some getting used to after the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 (edited) I think you are right to an extent. I do hope that the club is aiming to win every game - I suspect this is how some of the other succesful managers have operated... It's a strange idea I first noticed Bob Paisley and then Jose Mourinho try. Funny, but it seems to work. I think even Alex Ferguson has been known to give it a go. While I can comprehend the losing mentality that has crept into our fans, I don't think we need to accept it as irriversible. Yes, we started slowly. But winning the remaining games this season is well within our compass. Surely, since we are the Chelsea of this league?? Yes, we are the Chelsea of this league, and yes we should be delivering championship-winning form (2 points per game) pretty soon. Not sure Chelsea fans, if they had won one game in ten would be lauding that form as you did on this forum in the last week or so. And Chelsea wouldn't be taking the performance of a relegation plagued struggling club (SFC early 2000s) as their benchmark as you did. So its easy to rabble rouse about how we need to be positive, but when you are lauding one win in ten as some magnificent triumph we shouldn't dare complain about it doesn't quite ring true. You want to win every single game and get all Churchillian about it, but shrug shoulders "never mind" at one win in ten. Not sure that's quite the mindset of Alex Ferguson et al you claim to be exclusively channelling on here. Make your mind up. Edited 4 October, 2009 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westofshannonsaint Posted 4 October, 2009 Share Posted 4 October, 2009 just a thought, what (if any) teams in this division are in the sh*t financially, and looking good for administration/points deduction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arizona Posted 5 October, 2009 Share Posted 5 October, 2009 Don't want to burst this bubble of optimism, but we started the season, "only 10 points off the playoffs". Now we're further away with fewer games to catch up. Infact in around 1/4 of the season we've only made a 1 point dent into the 10 points we were from safety. I think we'll stay up, but the playoffs just aren't gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 5 October, 2009 Share Posted 5 October, 2009 I think the play-offs are a long shot, but I'm bemused about people saying "we'd have to show championship form" to get into the play-offs. I've been pretty forgiving about our mediocre start (well, our dire start...which has now become okay-ish). I do think the absence of pre-season and - more pertinently - building a largely new team takes time to come good. It looks like it's starting to. But from hereon, I want to be clear about one thing: I expect championship-winning form. Okay, if Leeds and Charlton average 2.2 points and we're averaging 2.19, I can live with that. But I can find no reason why Saints should not be averaging at least 2 points a game for the rest of the season. This is the third division FFS, not the Champions League. If we don't quite make it this season, our target should be win the division with comfort next season - with around 100 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 5 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 5 October, 2009 I think the play-offs are a long shot, but I'm bemused about people saying "we'd have to show championship form" to get into the play-offs. I've been pretty forgiving about our mediocre start (well, our dire start...which has now become okay-ish). I do think the absence of pre-season and - more pertinently - building a largely new team takes time to come good. It looks like it's starting to. But from hereon, I want to be clear about one thing: I expect championship-winning form. Okay, if Leeds and Charlton average 2.2 points and we're averaging 2.19, I can live with that. But I can find no reason why Saints should not be averaging at least 2 points a game for the rest of the season. This is the third division FFS, not the Champions League. If we don't quite make it this season, our target should be win the division with comfort next season - with around 100 points. Thank you, that is precisely my position. There is no dilemma between forgiving a slow start but expecting the wins to start flowing. I don't want to sound like Swiss Tony but a good league season can be like making love - a nice slow start with a couple of early hints at what's to come, then a build to a tumultus climax of excitement. I realise this does not sit comfortably with half our quick **** down an alleyway fanbase... I see no reason why we should not aim to win every game from here on. We have the team now, we have the resources. Ten games is sufficient to gel, whatever that means. Will we? Who knows. Can we? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonbenali Posted 10 October, 2009 Share Posted 10 October, 2009 Only 13 points off now! I do seriously worry though about what would happen if Lallana and Lambert get injured. However, it does look like the money's there to bring in loan cover should we need it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 10 October, 2009 Share Posted 10 October, 2009 Only 13 points off now! I do seriously worry though about what would happen if Lallana and Lambert get injured. However, it does look like the money's there to bring in loan cover should we need it... 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northampton Saint Posted 10 October, 2009 Share Posted 10 October, 2009 16 last week, 14 today. It is not out of the question - but we just need to not get too excited about all this as it is still going to be a long, slow progress. We are going to lose some games but hopefully the confidence that has been gained from the past 3 games is going to be invaluable in our push forward and upwards. I feel more positive about the team and our long term chances than I have done for years - so fingers crossed and who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonbenali Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 14 13 at time of writing, stato... So we've lost ground already? Pardew out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadoldgit Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 Essentially there are several teams on whom we can gain an advantage that, as you rightly point out, only stands in our favour if we both then win other games. I think you are right to an extent. I do hope that the club is aiming to win every game - I suspect this is how some of the other succesful managers have operated... It's a strange idea I first noticed Bob Paisley and then Jose Mourinho try. Funny, but it seems to work. I think even Alex Ferguson has been known to give it a go. While I can comprehend the losing mentality that has crept into our fans, I don't think we need to accept it as irriversible. Yes, we started slowly. But winning the remaining games this season is well within our compass. Surely, since we are the Chelsea of this league?? The Chelsea of this league? Since when did they start with -10 points? They can afford the best players in the world. We have bought the (possibly) best striker in the 3rd divison but apart from that have been looking for bargains and loans. We are potentially a big fish in a small pond, but the 3rd division's Chelsea, I would dsipute that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 The Chelsea of this league? Since when did they start with -10 points? They can afford the best players in the world. We have bought the (possibly) best striker in the 3rd divison but apart from that have been looking for bargains and loans. We are potentially a big fish in a small pond, but the 3rd division's Chelsea, I would dsipute that at the moment. Hopefully we aren't the Chelsea of this League. I think we may need to do some business in the transfer window in January, whereas Chelski cannot, and I also like the fact that we still have some young players around unlike Chelski who have an aging team. I would prefer to compare us with Man City rather than old money like Chelski LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 The Chelsea of this league? Since when did they start with -10 points? They can afford the best players in the world. We have bought the (possibly) best striker in the 3rd divison but apart from that have been looking for bargains and loans. We are potentially a big fish in a small pond, but the 3rd division's Chelsea, I would dsipute that at the moment. We have spent about 5 times more than any other League One team this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 11 October, 2009 Author Share Posted 11 October, 2009 The Chelsea of this league? Since when did they start with -10 points? They can afford the best players in the world. We have bought the (possibly) best striker in the 3rd divison but apart from that have been looking for bargains and loans. We are potentially a big fish in a small pond, but the 3rd division's Chelsea, I would dsipute that at the moment. It is beyond question that we are the richest team in the league? Ergo we are the Chelsea of this league just as QPR are the Chelsea of the Championship. Whether our board choose to spend the money is up to them. But we have it in buckets! And I wouldn't say we have been looking for bargains and loans. Lenny Lawrence says we tripled Lambert's salary, it will have cost us to retain Lallana, Papa will not be on this air wages nor Jaidi... If we were in the hunt come January, I expect you will see more moves for more expensive players to increase our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonist Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 We have spent about 5 times more than any other League One team this summer. How about net spending? We come out cash positive after the McGoldrick and Surman sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 The Chelsea of this league? Since when did they start with -10 points? They can afford the best players in the world. We have bought the (possibly) best striker in the 3rd divison but apart from that have been looking for bargains and loans. We are potentially a big fish in a small pond, but the 3rd division's Chelsea, I would dsipute that at the moment. Are you really that daft. We have Spent the most have the biggest squad trippled lamberts wages in one go the cost if lambert was pretty much the same as the next 3 top signings in league 1 put together brought in 2 ex league 1 managers as coaches pay pardew bought in a player from serie A brought in jaidi, Harding from the ccc bought a rival captain kept hold of kelvin do I really need to go on about he we have been flexing our financial muscle in league 1 terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 (edited) How about net spending? We come out cash positive after the McGoldrick and Surman sales. The money from those deals were used to pay for debts before the takeover happened, not this summers spending and all the things thedelldays lists in the post above. Takeover happened on 8th July McGoldrick left 29th June and Surman 1st July Edited 11 October, 2009 by Matthew Le God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonist Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 The money from those deals were used to pay for debts before the takeover happened, not this summers spending and all the things thedelldays lists in the post above. Takeover happened on 8th July McGoldrick left 29th June and Surman 1st July The money from those transfers were used to pay wages, which didn't have to be paid out of season ticket sales because the sales hadn't been made. Therefore season ticket money which would have otherwise already been spent will have boosted our transfer kitty, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabrone Posted 11 October, 2009 Share Posted 11 October, 2009 At the moment 6th place is taken by Norwich on 19 points after 12 games, that's a point scoring record of 1.583 per game. Assuming that this rate is maintained then their final total would be 73 points. To overcome that we would have to amass another 68 points from 34 games or exactly 2 points per game. In other words we'd have to do something along the lines of winning all our home games and drawing all our away games. Not impossible I suppose but looking at our form so far I personally think we've left it too late now to get into the playoffs. However if we were to put a very strong run together - maybe 6-8 wins on the trot - then it may start to look possible. My money is on mid table which TBH I'd consider an adequate conclusion to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northampton Saint Posted 17 October, 2009 Share Posted 17 October, 2009 And now it is 11 - with Norwich to play Leeds in their game in hand COYR Keep believing - we are really starting to perform now with another terrific result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedArmy Posted 17 October, 2009 Share Posted 17 October, 2009 We'd be 1 point off the playoffs without the deduction, we'd probably have started better without the pressure of being on -10 aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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