NickG Posted 27 September, 2009 Author Posted 27 September, 2009 Why on Earth would we ignore the first 3 games - won't they count ? You can twist and turn the numbers anywhich way but loose and it changes nothing - I repeat the only stat that counts is that we are scoring one point per game (on average) and that Sir will relegate us if we don't change it round . I see no point in burying our heads in the sand and comforting ourselves with delusions such as 'We're too good to go down' or the increasingly tiresome 'A few more weeks to gel' . That type of attitude could well be called Living in Denial , not only does it serve no good purpose but it's actually counterproductive as it allows everyone to avoid confronting the true scale of the teams underperformance . Alan Pardew , his coaching staff and above all his players first have to accept that their work (so far) has not been good enough , all else is an illusion . By the way - 9 League games played out of 46 , I make that very nearly a 5th of the season already gone . How about that for an interesting stat . point people are making is that we have improved - the last 6 games are an improvement on the first 6 - simple. I think the few weeks to gel has gone - IMHO 2 games ago was fair. Averaging 2 points a game - enough for play offs since then!
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 27 September, 2009 Posted 27 September, 2009 All right then as an academic exercise we'll ignore the inconvenient start of the season and just consider the last 6 league games . Played - 6 Won - 1 Drawn - 5 Lost - 0 Points = 8 (1.3 points per game ave) Even these (slewed) stats give us a predicted finish of 50 points - that will probably leave us something like one place above or one place inside the relegation zone . I'd say that was too close for comfort , wouldn't you ?
John B Posted 27 September, 2009 Posted 27 September, 2009 (edited) All right then as an academic exercise we'll ignore the inconvenient start of the season and just consider the last 6 league games . Played - 6 Won - 1 Drawn - 5 Lost - 0 Points = 8 (1.3 points per game ave) Even these (slewed) stats give us a predicted finish of 50 points - that will probably leave us something like one place above or one place inside the relegation zone . I'd say that was too close for comfort , wouldn't you ? Just use the last two games it is easy 4 points 2 per game 37 to go 74 -1 =73 Play off spot easy In fact use whatever figures you want to justify your stance. I dont think Pardew has the team playing well at the moment which will probably change soon but we wont get relegated and we wont get promoted either this season Which is what most people thought in July but hoped that things would have been better Edited 27 September, 2009 by John B
NickG Posted 3 October, 2009 Author Posted 3 October, 2009 (edited) I didn't expect a good performance or any points from Charlton so was pleasantly surprised. I was expecting the season to start for us, and some real progress from next week. The coaching staff are now in place, it is very much Pardew's team, two new signings just in, Holmes/Mills fit. I am not looking at the league table until after Christmas for two reasons; 1) the -10, those points don't need to be caught up in few weeks but over the season 2) our disrupted start to the season. I am going to follow this; http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html if we get up quickly, and remain, in play off positions in current form we will be doing ok. that'll do to start! 13th on current form, lets hope we can keep moving up that table - then come Christmas I'll look at the real one! got upto 13th last week, now up to 10th. http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html weekly update, 13th to 10 th and now 8th! Clearly heading in the right direction (would be 15th, 6 points of play offs in league but for deduction) the only team to beat us (and only just) recently is top of current form Edited 3 October, 2009 by NickG
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 I didn't expect a good performance or any points from Charlton so was pleasantly surprised. I was expecting the season to start for us, and some real progress from next week. The coaching staff are now in place, it is very much Pardew's team, two new signings just in, Holmes/Mills fit. I am not looking at the league table until after Christmas for two reasons; 1) the -10, those points don't need to be caught up in few weeks but over the season 2) our disrupted start to the season. I am going to follow this; http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html if we get up quickly, and remain, in play off positions in current form we will be doing ok. that'll do to start! 13th on current form, lets hope we can keep moving up that table - then come Christmas I'll look at the real one! got upto 13th last week, now up to 10th. http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html weekly update, 13th to 10 th and now 8th! Clearly heading in the right direction (would be 15th, 6 points of play offs in league but for deduction) the only team to beat us (and only just) recently is top of current form my weekly update; after todays games we have reached 6th! My target for hitting play off position in the form table, and to stay there -and the league table will look after itself!
Glasgow_Saint Posted 10 October, 2009 Posted 10 October, 2009 my weekly update; after todays games we have reached 6th! My target for hitting play off position in the form table, and to stay there -and the league table will look after itself! are we now capable of making the playoffs? you seem to have changed your mind?
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 never changed my mind, from preseason to now most likely 8-12th play offs very possible need a good run to get confidence going never expected fast start not sure what you mean?
NickG Posted 10 October, 2009 Author Posted 10 October, 2009 and never ever saw us being in relegation battle as some have
NickG Posted 12 October, 2009 Author Posted 12 October, 2009 For those who want a rough idea of what maybe required thought this might help. It is not intended to be exact, as each season will clearly be different. I have looked at the final league table over last few years - looked at the team in 6th, and looked at what would have been the lowest points they could have had to secure that 6th place. The most common points to reach the play offs, is a total of 69. (Although last year S****horpe would have needed 74) Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game. No room for bad runs at all. Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. (I have only used last 6 games as it is easy current form table on internet) Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs. I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games! combining the two - 1.8 points per game needed current form 1.8 points per game
NickG Posted 17 October, 2009 Author Posted 17 October, 2009 I didn't expect a good performance or any points from Charlton so was pleasantly surprised. I was expecting the season to start for us, and some real progress from next week. The coaching staff are now in place, it is very much Pardew's team, two new signings just in, Holmes/Mills fit. I am not looking at the league table until after Christmas for two reasons; 1) the -10, those points don't need to be caught up in few weeks but over the season 2) our disrupted start to the season. I am going to follow this; http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html if we get up quickly, and remain, in play off positions in current form we will be doing ok. that'll do to start! 13th on current form, lets hope we can keep moving up that table - then come Christmas I'll look at the real one! got upto 13th last week, now up to 10th. http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html weekly update, 13th to 10 th and now 8th! Clearly heading in the right direction (would be 15th, 6 points of play offs in league but for deduction) the only team to beat us (and only just) recently is top of current form now............2nd!!! http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html the season really did start!
Lazlo78 Posted 17 October, 2009 Posted 17 October, 2009 Wonderful thread. The team is really building momentum now
smithy Posted 18 October, 2009 Posted 18 October, 2009 now............2nd!!! http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html the season really did start! Goals for looks excellent!
NickG Posted 18 October, 2009 Author Posted 18 October, 2009 no, disappointed we didn't make 18 goals in 6 games!
S-Clarke Posted 19 October, 2009 Posted 19 October, 2009 Good result for us tonight (Leeds 2 - 1 Norwich), keeps the playoff places well within reach
RonManager Posted 19 October, 2009 Posted 19 October, 2009 Good result for us tonight (Leeds 2 - 1 Norwich), keeps the playoff places well within reach Nice to see the agony of last second goals doesn't only happen to us.
NickG Posted 24 October, 2009 Author Posted 24 October, 2009 http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html weekly update on the table - 3rd.
NickG Posted 1 November, 2009 Author Posted 1 November, 2009 weekly update still third best team over last 6 games behind Millwall and Norwich. 13 points from 6 2.2 points per game for last 6 (actually longer) to hit 69 points and there abouts for play offs need 57 from remaining 31 games, 1.8 points per game.
John B Posted 1 November, 2009 Posted 1 November, 2009 I have looked at our last ten games Leyton Orient 2-2 MK Dons 3-1 Oldham 3-1 Southend 3-1 Gillingham 4-1 Bristol Rovers 2-3 Carlisle 1-1 Yeovil 2-0 Charlton 1-1 Colchester 0-0 Points 19 avg 1.9 Points against Top Ten Teams 8 avg 1.6 Points against Non Top Ten Teams 11 avg 2.2 So it is still more than possible to reach the play offs but perhaps we need to do better against the top teams
NickG Posted 1 November, 2009 Author Posted 1 November, 2009 definately more than possible / achieveable. Will be hard and won't be surprised if form drops. Simply put, ever since we have had this team - with signings etc - form has been good enough to get us into playoff battle.
S-Clarke Posted 1 November, 2009 Posted 1 November, 2009 definately more than possible / achieveable. Will be hard and won't be surprised if form drops. Simply put, ever since we have had this team - with signings etc - form has been good enough to get us into playoff battle. Agreed, the only defeat has been the rovers game and that was a freak result IMO...as shown by both teams form in the following 6 games.
John B Posted 1 November, 2009 Posted 1 November, 2009 Agreed, the only defeat has been the rovers game and that was a freak result IMO...as shown by both teams form in the following 6 games. I dont disagree with you that a playoff place is possible but we have to beat the top teams. By the way Bristol Rovers have lost five games as you say but four were against top ten teams including MK dons Norwich and leads.
S-Clarke Posted 1 November, 2009 Posted 1 November, 2009 I dont disagree with you that a playoff place is possible but we have to beat the top teams. By the way Bristol Rovers have lost five games as you say but four were against top ten teams including MK dons Norwich and leads. True - i'm looking forward to the next few games, Charlton and Norwich at home...will be a good test to see where we are IMO.
John B Posted 1 November, 2009 Posted 1 November, 2009 True - i'm looking forward to the next few games, Charlton and Norwich at home...will be a good test to see where we are IMO. Yes it is very important that we win the League games like we did with MK dons as they are really six pointers
NickG Posted 15 November, 2009 Author Posted 15 November, 2009 after this defeat, we are.... 3rd in current form. http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html
NickG Posted 21 November, 2009 Author Posted 21 November, 2009 http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html now 5th in current form. This shows we are playing as well as play off contenders - but can we keep it going/improve enough to overcome deficit?
John B Posted 21 November, 2009 Posted 21 November, 2009 now 5th in current form. This shows we are playing as well as play off contenders - but can we keep it going/improve enough to overcome deficit? I doubt it
Lazlo78 Posted 1 December, 2009 Posted 1 December, 2009 Now 7th: http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html
amsterdam Posted 1 December, 2009 Posted 1 December, 2009 Now 7th: http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/league-one/tables/currentform.html Walsall are 4th though? Might be a challenge (haven't checked who they've played)
sad saints fan Posted 12 December, 2009 Posted 12 December, 2009 Interesting to read through all of this thread and which posters disappear as things started to improve
NickG Posted 12 December, 2009 Author Posted 12 December, 2009 top 4 now. us Charlton, Leeds and Norwich.
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