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TopGun

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OK

 

So I have to admit defeat on this climatic change stuff> Having been greatly influenced by the nice fluffy liberals on this list and TV experst on the subject.

 

Seemingly I can no longer eat Beef or Pork as the the methane etc produced by their farting is a major contributory factor in damaging the Worlds Carbon Footprint. Sheep and Chickens are no longer to farmed for food as they have the same human rights as humans a right to life, no oppression etc and allowed to die naturally.

So thats Beef , Pork, Lamb and Chicken off the menu.

Ah theres fish I can eat. No they are of the menu as the world Fish stocks are sadly depleted.

 

I just hope that the farmers diversify and are able to grow enough, cucumbers , tomatoes aubergines etc to keep us all fed.

 

And there was I thinking that 2010 was going to be a good year.

 

Right off to Tescos to buy veggie burghars, hopefully they are still in existence. :rolleyes:

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Yet another article. They all seem to say 'we just don't know'.

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jul/18/20040718-115714-6334r/

 

So would you moderate your earlier claim that the 'new orthodoxy' is that the North Atlantic Drift isn't changing and won't change?

 

I've always understood that a change or fizzling out of the NAD was a possibility in some climate models - but that, as you say, 'we don't know'. The idea that there is convincing evidence that everything is and will be fine is what puzzled me.

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So would you moderate your earlier claim that the 'new orthodoxy' is that the North Atlantic Drift isn't changing and won't change?

 

I've always understood that a change or fizzling out of the NAD was a possibility in some climate models - but that, as you say, 'we don't know'. The idea that there is convincing evidence that everything is and will be fine is what puzzled me.

From what I have read before a change is 'very unlikely', whatever that means...

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Just a thought... There is expected to be a world shortage of fresh water and the concern about the change in the Gulf Stream is thought to be due to melting glaciers affecting the North Atlantic, so.... load up all the ice before it hits the sea and transport it to the dry areas! :)

 

I think there are several thousand people ahead of you with that idea. Some of them have been very serious too.

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But they were thinking on small scale. If your'e gonna do it, do it big!

 

Sorry WG, like all the others, you're just too early with your idea. There simply isn't the need yet for the problems of overcoming the mass, draught, poor maneuverability of an iceberg. Plus it just isn't profitable to do it. What is profitable is bottling iceberg water, and selling it at a premium. Sadly, that makes it too expensive for poorer nations.

 

But even Thames Water were thinking about your idea a few years ago.

 

Mind you, icebergs are towed by ships already, but just to get them away from danger zones, like shipping lanes, oil drilling platforms, etc...

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"No one ever said that Lung Cancer can cause smoking" lol....These two vids are must see ...Take note of the painting at the begining of the first vid.....There's a lot of peeps from here in there LOL. Hell, it even has some of us peering through the window ;)

 

 

 

 

St G, Bob Carter is more of a 'sceptic' than even you are, so this is hardly a surprising piece of 'evidence'.

 

http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/bobcarter.html

 

May I suggest you go and try what Whitey Grandad has been challenged to do; find a sceptic who can be demonstrated to be unbiased, and without direct financial links to EXXON.

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Sorry WG, like all the others, you're just too early with your idea. There simply isn't the need yet for the problems of overcoming the mass, draught, poor maneuverability of an iceberg. Plus it just isn't profitable to do it. What is profitable is bottling iceberg water, and selling it at a premium. Sadly, that makes it too expensive for poorer nations.

 

But even Thames Water were thinking about your idea a few years ago.

 

Mind you, icebergs are towed by ships already, but just to get them away from danger zones, like shipping lanes, oil drilling platforms, etc...

I knew that. ;)

This is an interesting proposition: http://osmoticpower.com/ Perhaps we could use the frozen fresh water to generate energy? It would be even more efficient because the temperature difference could also be exploited.

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Back to the global climate, I see Australia is reaching record hot temperatures once again. I do keep on about the Earth Heat Budget because it does help to put pay to those people who glibly say... well it's freezing here, so there's definitely no climate change..! The rise in average global temperature actually results in more extreme weather, that is climate change. But it will be compensated for elsewhere. For example, much of Oz's bushland is in severe danger of going up in smoke.

 

A chap I know recently escaped the cold, and went to Lanzarote. He reported that it was unseasonably warm. Of course, that wouldn't be an example of climate change, would it..? ;)

 

No, of course not.

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A chap I know recently escaped the cold, and went to Lanzarote. He reported that it was unseasonably warm. Of course, that wouldn't be an example of climate change, would it..? ;)

 

No, of course not.

 

Of course not. Last year the Canaries were cool and cloudy over the Christmas period. Normal people call it the weather. :rolleyes:

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Back to the global climate, I see Australia is reaching record hot temperatures once again. I do keep on about the Earth Heat Budget because it does help to put pay to those people who glibly say... well it's freezing here, so there's definitely no climate change..! The rise in average global temperature actually results in more extreme weather, that is climate change. But it will be compensated for elsewhere. For example, much of Oz's bushland is in severe danger of going up in smoke.

 

A chap I know recently escaped the cold, and went to Lanzarote. He reported that it was unseasonably warm. Of course, that wouldn't be an example of climate change, would it..? ;)

 

No, of course not.

No, that is weather, not climate. For the same reason that our cold winter is not evidence of global cooling. More in the Mail today. Take it, like the weather, with a pinch of salt.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1242202/Could-30-years-global-COOLING.html

And one from last February:. 'Britain can now expect a winter like this only every 20 years'. That'll be two in a row then.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5682862.ece

 

Interestingly, because of the way that the Met Office uses the statistics they are already saying that this winter is one of the mildest ever, despite the fact that it is only January 11th. They take the 12 highest temperatures and average these to give their figure for the winter. These 12 highest all occurred in November. (IIRC)

 

More about the 'Met Office for Weather and Climate Change':

 

http://objectivistindividualist.blogspot.com/2010/01/britains-met-office-predicted-mild.html

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Interestingly, because of the way that the Met Office uses the statistics they are already saying that this winter is one of the mildest ever, despite the fact that it is only January 11th. They take the 12 highest temperatures and average these to give their figure for the winter. These 12 highest all occurred in November. (IIRC)

/QUOTE]

Not questioning your facts, but where exactly can this information be found ? Or is it that, at the end of last November, on the basis that it had been 'mild' up to then, they made a prediction ? ( Which they are, no doubt, now regretting, and rapidly re-evaluating ).

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Interestingly, because of the way that the Met Office uses the statistics they are already saying that this winter is one of the mildest ever, despite the fact that it is only January 11th. They take the 12 highest temperatures and average these to give their figure for the winter. These 12 highest all occurred in November. (IIRC)

/QUOTE]

Not questioning your facts, but where exactly can this information be found ? Or is it that, at the end of last November, on the basis that it had been 'mild' up to then, they made a prediction ? ( Which they are, no doubt, now regretting, and rapidly re-evaluating ).

I must admit I hesitated before posting this. My first reference is Dominic Lawson in The Times http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article6982310.ece

but that seems to originate from another comment posted in a newpaper by someone purporting to be from the Met office. This article:

http://heresycorner.blogspot.com/2010/01/however-cold-it-gets-this-is-officially.html attributes it a comment in the Mail from 'Tony in Norwich'.

 

I personally find this extremely hard to believe but people will believe what they want to believe. I would take it with a pinch of 'muriated natrium' myself.

 

There are some rethinks on Arctic Ice though:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/28/uk-met-office-backpedals-on-arctic-ice-unlikely-that-the-arctic-will-experience-ice-free-summers-by-2020/

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No, that is weather, not climate. For the same reason that our cold winter is not evidence of global cooling. More in the Mail today. Take it, like the weather, with a pinch of salt.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1242202/Could-30-years-global-COOLING.html

And one from last February:. 'Britain can now expect a winter like this only every 20 years'. That'll be two in a row then.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5682862.ece

 

Interestingly, because of the way that the Met Office uses the statistics they are already saying that this winter is one of the mildest ever, despite the fact that it is only January 11th. They take the 12 highest temperatures and average these to give their figure for the winter. These 12 highest all occurred in November. (IIRC)

 

More about the 'Met Office for Weather and Climate Change':

 

http://objectivistindividualist.blogspot.com/2010/01/britains-met-office-predicted-mild.html

 

You really like to jump don't you. Do you not think I know the difference..? I was illustrating how people glibly talk about freezing temperatures and then say... no climate change here..! I explained that quite fully, yet you managed to take it out of context. Please read the posts carefully.

 

Once again, I'm thinking of not posting on this thread anymore.

Edited by St Landrew
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You really like to jump don't you. Do you not think I know the difference..? I was illustrating how people glibly talk about freezing temperatures and then say... no climate change here..! I explained that quite fully, yet you managed to take it out of context. Please read the posts carefully.

 

Once again, I'm thinking of not posting on this thread anymore.

My apologies for jumping to the wrong conclusion. I've re-read your post and I think it could be taken either way. I just like to highlight all sides of the debate which is not easy in today's 'climate'.

 

All contributions are gratefully received!

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My apologies for jumping to the wrong conclusion. I've re-read your post and I think it could be taken either way. I just like to highlight all sides of the debate which is not easy in today's 'climate'.

 

All contributions are gratefully received!

 

Apology accepted. Calm, calm, calm. :)

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interesting programme on inside out (BBC) here in the south west..

 

they are following a bunch of scientists collecting data on the jet stream in an aeroplane...flying into a coming front..as high as 30k feet down to 50 feet..

 

the gist of it..

 

they admitted the near term predictions have been wrong

the arctic sea ice is coming back some what

and 5 day forecasts need to be improved

 

if the MET office etc are getting near term predictions so wrong, how can we be so sure that the end of the world is coming..?

Edited by Thedelldays
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interesting programme on inside out (BBC) here in the south west..

 

they are following a bunch of scientists collecting data on the jet stream in an aeroplane...flying into a coming front..as high as 30k feet down to 50 feet..

 

the gist of it..

 

they admitted the near term predictions have been wrong

the arctic sea ice is coming back some what

and 5 day forecasts need to be improved

 

if the MET office etc are getting near term predictions so wrong, how can we be so sure that the end of the world is coming..?

 

I'll say. By my reckoning, the 5 day forecast hasn't been accurate for at least 5 or 6 years, and it is getting worse. Peculiarly, the freezing weather has been predicted pretty accurately. But if you look out for sailing weather in the summer months, you often find that the weather comes through at least 24 hours quicker than predicted during the run of a predicted 5 days forecast.

 

I've been saying this for several years amongst sailing friends, but I think they need to update the weather programming models for 5 day forecasts.

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Because one has nothing to do with the other?

 

maybe..but after a couple of clicks these popped up..

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/28/met-office-study-global-warming

 

http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2927

 

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/06/19/met-office-study-forecasts-catastrophic-climate-change-91466-23920665/

DISEASES will flourish, rising sea levels will wipe out wildlife and traditional farming methods will have to change if Met Office climate change predictions published yesterday are fulfilled

 

http://www.computerweekly.com/Articles/2009/10/27/238307/case-study-how-the-met-office-supercomputer-offsets-its-carbon.htm

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While scientists are pretty much agreed that man's emissions are effecting the climate there is little or no agreement as to predicting what will happen and over what timescale, opinions vary wildly.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6965342/Big-freeze-could-signal-global-warming-pause.html

 

See, I TOLD you the Ice Age is coming.

 

These global warming freaks will still be telling us off for flying to Aviemore for some summer Glacier Skiing

remember being told that the ice caps will melt and it will be catastrophic..

 

are they melting away..or not..?

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remember being told that the ice caps will melt and it will be catastrophic..

 

are they melting away..or not..?

 

In a word, YES!!

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5683655.ece

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6865813/Eco-tourists-blamed-for-melting-polar-ice-caps.html

 

And those are from nice centre-right newspapers not that fluffy do-gooding Guardian.

Edited by Thorpe-le-Saint
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remember being told that the ice caps will melt and it will be catastrophic..

 

are they melting away..or not..?

 

Yes, and the real problem is going to be with the presently disappearing glacier systems that feed the five great rivers of Asia.

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It's not getting warmer:smt023 It's gonna get a bit cooler:smt023 it might warm up again:smt023

 

Every global warming graph from the pro-warming camp goes the same way, slight warming up to now, meaning real time and then the graph goes ballistic and shoots through the roof in the next 20 years, rubbish.

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The trouble we all face is that a report that says 'global warming not happening' is seen as dull and has limited coverage, whereas anything that has 'the world is ending' not surprisingly is headline news.

 

Now I am not an expert but I do know that we have three winters that have got progressively colder (my own experience not scientific) I keep livestock and a cold spell makes a big difference so I notice. We have also not had a 'scorching' summer since 2006 and before then 2003. I will say that we did go through a period of unusually mild winters before the last three.

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Having just returned from a visit to Iceland where global warming is really affecting them, though at minus 17 on some days it was cold enough for me. The saddest thing, which has really played on my mind is that Polar Bears are now finding their way to Iceland on ice caps and as the animals cannot be trapped or captured safely they are therefore killed. I have a real issue with this and how the polar bears in particular are being affected by global warming, it really breaks my heart.

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Having just returned from a visit to Iceland where global warming is really affecting them, though at minus 17 on some days it was cold enough for me. The saddest thing, which has really played on my mind is that Polar Bears are now finding their way to Iceland on ice caps and as the animals cannot be trapped or captured safely they are therefore killed. I have a real issue with this and how the polar bears in particular are being affected by global warming, it really breaks my heart.

I read somewhere that the polar population had increased not decreased as had first thought.

As for climate change lots is happening, whether it is all man made I doubt. To trust forecasters is hard as the weather people cant get 2 days in a row

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At least some people in the city council seem to have some common sense... but why only 200, should be many, many more...

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/4849101.Giants_of_the_sea/

 

Because it's a major shipping area and there isn't room.

 

Fear not, however, it's part of a wider plan to deliver 32GW by 2020.

 

As to the Council; they had no say in it one way or the other so they may as well try to exploit any economic benefits it might bring.

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Because it's a major shipping area and there isn't room.

 

Fear not, however, it's part of a wider plan to deliver 32GW by 2020.

 

As to the Council; they had no say in it one way or the other so they may as well try to exploit any economic benefits it might bring.

 

Each of the newly announced offshore wind turbine zones will still have to go through the planning process - in this case, with the newly formed Infrastructure Planning Commission. The IPC will consult with Southampton Council and other local councils as well as with marine organisations, environmental groups, shipping and fishing lobbies etc so the NIMBYS will still get their opportunity to try and shout down a perfectly good offshore energy scheme that will reduce the need for onshore wind farms and other more conventional power plants.

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Each of the newly announced offshore wind turbine zones will still have to go through the planning process - in this case, with the newly formed Infrastructure Planning Commission. The IPC will consult with Southampton Council and other local councils as well as with marine organisations, environmental groups, shipping and fishing lobbies etc so the NIMBYS will still get their opportunity to try and shout down a perfectly good offshore energy scheme that will reduce the need for onshore wind farms and other more conventional power plants.

We shall still need the other power plants to cover the days that the wind doesn't blow much, like the last couple of weeks.

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We shall still need the other power plants to cover the days that the wind doesn't blow much, like the last couple of weeks.

 

Agreed. It doesn't cost that much in relative terms to keep conventional plants ticking over so they can ratchet up the power when wind output drops. As an oil-fired plant Fawley has been ticking over for most of the time for years and only goes full blast at rare peak power periods such as the last couple of weeks.

 

People seem to use the required existence of a spinning reserve composed of conventional power generation as some kind of warped logic to deride the value of wind generation. In fact, it's easy: use wind as first option when available and have conventional back ups that kick in when required. That way we get energy security and reduce carbon emissions.

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We shall still need the other power plants to cover the days that the wind doesn't blow much, like the last couple of weeks.

 

It's a slight misnomer to think that when there's a bit of a calm inland, that the wind is not blowing sufficiently elsewhere, or at sea, to turn a turbine blade. Believe me, it's a bloody rare thing to have insufficent wind off-shore, and GB is very well suited for off-shore wind farms.

 

Yes, we'll need conventional power backup too. Oh, maybe not.

 

http://www.steorn.com/

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denmark has a huge amount of wind turbines...im sure what I will quote will be countered..but hey ho..

 

Denmark (population 5.3 million) has over 6,000 turbines that produced electricity equal to 19% of what the country used in 2002. Yet no conventional power plant has been shut down. Because of the intermittency and variability of the wind, conventional power plants must be kept running at full capacity to meet the actual demand for electricity. Most cannot simply be turned on and off as the wind dies and rises, and the quick ramping up and down of those that can be would actually increase their output of pollution and carbon dioxide (the primary "greenhouse" gas). So when the wind is blowing just right for the turbines, the power they generate is usually a surplus and sold to other countries at an extremely discounted price, or the turbines are simply shut off.
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denmark has a huge amount of wind turbines...im sure what I will quote will be countered..but hey ho..

There can be problems with power plants that were not designed for rapid changes in output and to operate at maximum efficiency they need to run at maximum output most of the time. That's why pumped storage plants like Port Dinorwic are important to see us through the peaks, like half-time in a world cup final. There was a small power station in South London which was originally used flat out but in its later years was only used for the two main daily power surges. They had a lot of problems with cracked turbine casings because there were two mechanical thermal cycles a day instead of one every two years.

 

Keeping Fawley warmed up uses an enormous amount of energy just to have it sitting there as standby.

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There can be problems with power plants that were not designed for rapid changes in output and to operate at maximum efficiency they need to run at maximum output most of the time. That's why pumped storage plants like Port Dinorwic are important to see us through the peaks, like half-time in a world cup final. There was a small power station in South London which was originally used flat out but in its later years was only used for the two main daily power surges. They had a lot of problems with cracked turbine casings because there were two mechanical thermal cycles a day instead of one every two years.

 

Keeping Fawley warmed up uses an enormous amount of energy just to have it sitting there as standby.

 

Which is one reason why it and other oil-fired plants are being closed. Gas is a far better option to switch off and on as it can go from cold to full output within minutes. An excellent partner for wind energy.

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It's a slight misnomer to think that when there's a bit of a calm inland, that the wind is not blowing sufficiently elsewhere, or at sea, to turn a turbine blade. Believe me, it's a bloody rare thing to have insufficent wind off-shore, and GB is very well suited for off-shore wind farms.

 

That's why they are proposing big turbines a long way offshore, but there are still considerable periods of no wind at all and these coincide with spells like the present with high pressure and low temperatures. I much prefer tidal power, myself. The capital costs are high but there is a much higher return than wind turbines.

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Which is one reason why it and other oil-fired plants are being closed. Gas is a far better option to switch off and on as it can go from cold to full output within minutes. An excellent partner for wind energy.

It's not efficient because there is a lot of energy needed just to heat up the turbines and the all the otheer gear. It's a bit like starting and stopping your car all the time. I see that Marchwood is now up and running: http://www.marchwoodpower.com/

 

There are even bigger efficiencies to be made from local generation of power http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributed_generation

 

I have seen studies of the total energy cycles for electric cars and when you take into account all the losses in transmission and storage there is not a lot of saving over burning the fuel in the place where it's needed, which is under the bonnet.

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That's why they are proposing big turbines a long way offshore, but there are still considerable periods of no wind at all and these coincide with spells like the present with high pressure and low temperatures. I much prefer tidal power, myself. The capital costs are high but there is a much higher return than wind turbines.

 

Proposing..? They're already doing it, with many more to follow.

 

As a person who does a fair bit of sailing, I sometimes wish the wind would abate. Too often it finds a reason to get even stronger.

 

I quite like tidal power too, but the environmental implications are an issue. And why on Earth we don't make as much use of rivers as we could is beyond me. There's free power going to waste with every raindrop. And it's about as low-tech as you can get, before it stops being tech at all.

 

After the early promise of Salter's Ducks, back in the 80's, wave power is catching on again. There is a British company, called Polamis, that has a contract with EON to produce power from waves using their sea-snake design. They did have a contract with the Portugese and started commercially producing wave powered electricity in September 2009. But it broke down after a few weeks. It produced the same amount of electricity as one wind turbine.

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It's not efficient because there is a lot of energy needed just to heat up the turbines and the all the otheer gear. It's a bit like starting and stopping your car all the time. I see that Marchwood is now up and running: http://www.marchwoodpower.com/

 

There are even bigger efficiencies to be made from local generation of power http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributed_generation

 

I have seen studies of the total energy cycles for electric cars and when you take into account all the losses in transmission and storage there is not a lot of saving over burning the fuel in the place where it's needed, which is under the bonnet.

 

Actually I very nearly made that point about gas in terms of big power stations myself but it still represents the best partner to wind.

 

I have been involved with the new Marchwood power station. Now that it is finally up and running (bloody substandard pipes) it will be a valuable plant, located where it is. In fact there is an argument to site at least one more 1GW+ plant on the south coast, particularly since Dungeness is unlikely to have a new nuke.

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