Reasons not to be cheerful

[1976_Child]

Things are not good at the moment. Here's why:

 

1. The country is bankrupt. Taxes will go up and public services will suffer because of less spending. It doesn’t matter what fantasy world Gordon Brown inhabits, these are the facts. And there is a very good chance that investors will have no more appetite for our bonds and the country will literally become insolvent, and in a similar fashion to what happened at St Mary’s today public sector workers will not be paid. The only other way ‘out’ of this mess is to get the printing presses rolling and that is the kiss of death for any economy. This really worries me. And it all stems from profligate spending by successive governments (but Brown must take most of the blame) coupled with the absurd fractional reserve banking and a fiat currency.

 

2. At 33 years old, there is no point me looking forward to a state pension. It will not exist in 35 years time. It barely exists for today's pensioners. So to be able to retire on £20,000 (before tax) in today's money my financial advisor tells me I need to have a pension pot of at least £750,000 in 35 years time (again, today's money). That means saving more than £1,000 minimum per month from now on and assuming a rosy average real rate of interest of 5%. Fat ****ing chance.

 

3. In the medium term I need to put away a deposit for a house. Now that 100% mortgages are a thing of the past I will need a minimum of 15% deposit. Even if crappy one-bed flats in Brighton fall in price by a further 50% to an average of "just" £100,000 then I need to find another £15,000. Say I hope to have my own place by the time I am 38 then I will need to save another £250 per month. At a real squeeze this is just about doable, however it would mean absolutely no discretionary spending (on things like the odd pint or watching Saints - football would be impossible to afford). But then there was that assumption of prices falling another 50% so realistically there is **** all chances of this happening too.

 

4. The assumption that GDP will always continue to grow at a steady clip are ludicrous in the extreme. The only way GDP grows is if there is a concurrent growth in the supply of cheap energy – particularly liquid fuels (oil). The consensus amongst serious minds from within the industry says that global oil production has peaked already in 2005. Whether it has already or is about to is irrelevant. We are now consuming 5 barrels of oil for every one we discover. That is unsustainable. Even if the populations and demand from India and China was frozen the world would need an additional Saudi Arabia every 4 years, to be discovered and brought online just to keep up with falling production from other oil fields. This is not going to happen. Unfreeze the population and demand from India and China and even if a new Saudi was discovered every 4 years it would not be enough. New tar sand production (still not economically viable with oil at $70) will never be able to even cover the decline in conventional oil fields let alone produce the new Saudi every four years. Tar sands are highly polluting and require absurd quantities of water and natural gas. The gas heats the water and the steam is run through the tar, releasing the oil (which is not sweet, it contains sulphur which falls into the water). Shale oil is not even viable at the moment and there are serious doubts whether it would ever produce ‘net energy’.

 

In short, the very foundation of the western world’s economic ‘miracle’ of steady GDP growth since the Second World War, cheap oil, is over. Peak oil is not a wacko theory. It is a geological fact. Without cheap oil our very way of life is going to change dramatically. This won’t happen suddenly (although there undoubtedly will be shocks along the way) but what people should take on board is that constant exponential growth in GDP is not possible. This fact tied in with number 1 above should, to the economically literate person, send a shiver down your spine. The very basis of our consumptive debt based economy and monetary system is that we need to produce and consume more tomorrow to pay for today’s interest.

 

5. I honestly can’t see a future where I can meet all my bills, pay my rent, feed and clothe myself and save £1,250 per month AND pay the increased taxation which is surely coming our way in a year. I am still failing to convince the bank to finance my business, even though I have proven cash flow. As such I am unable to grow my business and participate in this crazy GDP ‘growth’ fiasco. Things are really, really, really bad. I am just lucky that I do not have a family to support. If worst comes to worst I will just give up and become a tramp. Or a monk. My business partner has negative equity a wife and two young kids to provide for. He is working 90 hours a week at vastly reduced daily rates and is still not making ends meet. I am sure there a many other members of this forum with similar stories to tell. I do not want to monopolise the sympathy. In fact I do not want sympathy. What I want is leadership from the idiots we send to parliament.

 

6. There is absolutely NO political leadership on any of these very real, serious issues. Life is about to get very complicated and we live on a small island with many different cultures and still constant inflows of immigrants. Leadership is analogous to climbing a tree and seeing further than the people below and seeing that they are marching blindfolded towards a cliff. Leadership is then standing in front of the people and urging them to change direction. Leadership is not about being elected and leading them off the edge of the cliff. Our politicians, of all parties, are simply not providing leadership. This really frightens me.

 

7. Throughout history there have been times of relative peace and stability and there have been protracted periods of hardship, war and famine. There is no reason to believe that history will not repeat and that we are not now on the cusp of the next period of hardship. And I don’t just mean a slight recession. There are nearly seven billion people on the face of the Earth. When I was born the figure was just over four billion. We are looking down the barrel of the gun.

 

8. And last but not least, my football club is still not safe from extinction.

 

So to summarise life as we know it is utter crap. I am not down hearted. I am philosophical. What I will say is that these are certainly interesting times to be alive.

 

Cheers for reading and I welcome your comments,

 

1976.

Edited 25 June, 2009 by 1976_Child

[Thedelldays]

behave

[$$$]

Cheers for reading and I welcome your comments

Do you post on http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk? You would fit in well there...

[1976_Child]

Do you post on http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk? You would fit in well there...

 

no. I want the housing market to crash! It is interesting though that whenever I do raise my very real concerns people just can not even entertain them. So many people are just too comfortable believing that things always follow a trajetory of ever increasing wealth, health and consumption. Viewed along side 4000 years of human history the last 50 years is just a blink.

 

Just ask yourself. Why does it now take two bread winners to provide for the average income family, when a generation ago it was only one? (average)

[TopGun]

Invest in wind farms 1976. I know you think they're crap but you can still make some dosh. Then you'll be happier.

[1976_Child]

Invest in wind farms 1976. I know you think they're crap but you can still make some dosh. Then you'll be happier.

 

No thanks. And by the way, I don't think wind farms are crap. They do exactly what it says on the tin. the problem I have is that allthough they will be part of the solution they will only ever be a very small part. And of course electricity is not the same as liquid fuel.

 

Seriously, people should be extremely concerned at our energy policy. Putting aside liquid fuels for a moment, the electrical capacity of the country is not exactly unlimited either. These are serious issues which are not being attended to.

[benjii]

If you own a Jacko ticket.

[Weston Super Saint]

No thanks. And by the way, I don't think wind farms are crap. They do exactly what it says on the tin. the problem I have is that allthough they will be part of the solution they will only ever be a very small part. And of course electricity is not the same as liquid fuel.

 

Seriously, people should be extremely concerned at our energy policy. Putting aside liquid fuels for a moment, the electrical capacity of the country is not exactly unlimited either. These are serious issues which are not being attended to.

 

Correct.

 

Many more nuclear power stations are needed urgently.

[$$$]

no. I want the housing market to crash!

 

So do 90% of the people who post on there. A fair few think the world as we know it will shortly end as well...

[TopGun]

Correct.

 

Many more nuclear power stations are needed urgently.

 

I think the govt has addressed this. EDF, Eon, RWE, Iberdrola are all lined up to make nuke energy in the UK... I wonder whether Maggie spotted the irony after she privatised power generation!

Edited 25 June, 2009 by TopGun

[Smirking_Saint]

Things are not good at the moment. Here's why:

 

1. The country is bankrupt. Taxes will go up and public services will suffer because of less spending. It doesn’t matter what fantasy world Gordon Brown inhabits, these are the facts. And there is a very good chance that investors will have no more appetite for our bonds and the country will literally become insolvent, and in a similar fashion to what happened at St Mary’s today public sector workers will not be paid. The only other way ‘out’ of this mess is to get the printing presses rolling and that is the kiss of death for any economy. This really worries me. And it all stems from profligate spending by successive governments (but Brown must take most of the blame) coupled with the absurd fractional reserve banking and a fiat currency.

 

2. At 33 years old, there is no point me looking forward to a state pension. It will not exist in 35 years time. It barely exists for today's pensioners. So to be able to retire on £20,000 (before tax) in today's money my financial advisor tells me I need to have a pension pot of at least £750,000 in 35 years time (again, today's money). That means saving more than £1,000 minimum per month from now on and assuming a rosy average real rate of interest of 5%. Fat ****ing chance.

 

3. In the medium term I need to put away a deposit for a house. Now that 100% mortgages are a thing of the past I will need a minimum of 15% deposit. Even if crappy one-bed flats in Brighton fall in price by a further 50% to an average of "just" £100,000 then I need to find another £15,000. Say I hope to have my own place by the time I am 38 then I will need to save another £250 per month. At a real squeeze this is just about doable, however it would mean absolutely no discretionary spending (on things like the odd pint or watching Saints - football would be impossible to afford). But then there was that assumption of prices falling another 50% so realistically there is **** all chances of this happening too.

 

4. The assumption that GDP will always continue to grow at a steady clip are ludicrous in the extreme. The only way GDP grows is if there is a concurrent growth in the supply of cheap energy – particularly liquid fuels (oil). The consensus amongst serious minds from within the industry says that global oil production has peaked already in 2005. Whether it has already or is about to is irrelevant. We are now consuming 5 barrels of oil for every one we discover. That is unsustainable. Even if the populations and demand from India and China was frozen the world would need an additional Saudi Arabia every 4 years, to be discovered and brought online just to keep up with falling production from other oil fields. This is not going to happen. Unfreeze the population and demand from India and China and even if a new Saudi was discovered every 4 years it would not be enough. New tar sand production (still not economically viable with oil at $70) will never be able to even cover the decline in conventional oil fields let alone produce the new Saudi every four years. Tar sands are highly polluting and require absurd quantities of water and natural gas. The gas heats the water and the steam is run through the tar, releasing the oil (which is not sweet, it contains sulphur which falls into the water). Shale oil is not even viable at the moment and there are serious doubts whether it would ever produce ‘net energy’.

 

In short, the very foundation of the western world’s economic ‘miracle’ of steady GDP growth since the Second World War, cheap oil, is over. Peak oil is not a wacko theory. It is a geological fact. Without cheap oil our very way of life is going to change dramatically. This won’t happen suddenly (although there undoubtedly will be shocks along the way) but what people should take on board is that constant exponential growth in GDP is not possible. This fact tied in with number 1 above should, to the economically literate person, send a shiver down your spine. The very basis of our consumptive debt based economy and monetary system is that we need to produce and consume more tomorrow to pay for today’s interest.

 

5. I honestly can’t see a future where I can meet all my bills, pay my rent, feed and clothe myself and save £1,250 per month AND pay the increased taxation which is surely coming our way in a year. I am still failing to convince the bank to finance my business, even though I have proven cash flow. As such I am unable to grow my business and participate in this crazy GDP ‘growth’ fiasco. Things are really, really, really bad. I am just lucky that I do not have a family to support. If worst comes to worst I will just give up and become a tramp. Or a monk. My business partner has negative equity a wife and two young kids to provide for. He is working 90 hours a week at vastly reduced daily rates and is still not making ends meet. I am sure there a many other members of this forum with similar stories to tell. I do not want to monopolise the sympathy. In fact I do not want sympathy. What I want is leadership from the idiots we send to parliament.

 

6. There is absolutely NO political leadership on any of these very real, serious issues. Life is about to get very complicated and we live on a small island with many different cultures and still constant inflows of immigrants. Leadership is analogous to climbing a tree and seeing further than the people below and seeing that they are marching blindfolded towards a cliff. Leadership is then standing in front of the people and urging them to change direction. Leadership is not about being elected and leading them off the edge of the cliff. Our politicians, of all parties, are simply not providing leadership. This really frightens me.

 

7. Throughout history there have been times of relative peace and stability and there have been protracted periods of hardship, war and famine. There is no reason to believe that history will not repeat and that we are not now on the cusp of the next period of hardship. And I don’t just mean a slight recession. There are nearly seven billion people on the face of the Earth. When I was born the figure was just over four billion. We are looking down the barrel of the gun.

 

8. And last but not least, my football club is still not safe from extinction.

 

So to summarise life as we know it is utter crap. I am not down hearted. I am philosophical. What I will say is that these are certainly interesting times to be alive.

 

Cheers for reading and I welcome your comments,

 

1976.

 

Sorry 1976 for this.........

 

 

Can someone post a summary, i really can't be bothered

[LGTL]

Christ, you really are the most miserable bastard ever. I take it you're single?

[Smirking_Saint]

Correct.

 

Many more nuclear power stations are needed urgently.

 

Desperately.

 

Oh.... and wind farms are ****, they are pretty unefficient compared to the MW production capacities.

 

They only work through a particularly small wind speed time.

 

Nuclear power is the way forward, very efficient, small construction blueprint, very little waste TBH.

[Smirking_Saint]

I think the govt has addressed this. EDF, Eon, RWE, Iberdrola are all lined up to make nuke energy in the UK... I wonder whether Maggie spotted the irony after she privatised power generation!

 

It's not the Govt. perogative any more, they can only impose stipulations and attempt to reduce the red tape needed to begin construction of Nuclear power plants. (they will still take 20 years to become active)

 

Problem is most of our power stations such as Didcot etc are at the end of their lives and need to begin to be de-commisioned and some are already moth-balled.

 

We also buy a large % of our electricity from france (who produce much more than they need) where as britain produces (at peak) less than needed. France's energy is also cheaper due to nuclear energy.

 

As for privatisation not alot can be done for electricity prices as they are kept under regulation by Ofgem. However the distribution networks are much better and TBF the southern energy (SSE Plc) distribution network is actually THE best performing in the UK, by a mile, which is why (i hope) most of you are normally happy at home typing out on your CPU undisturbed by power outages (as apposed to the likes of EDF etc)

 

Sorry

[Thedelldays]

Desperately.

 

Oh.... and wind farms are ****, they are pretty unefficient compared to the MW production capacities.

 

They only work through a particularly small wind speed time.

 

Nuclear power is the way forward, very efficient, small construction blueprint, very little waste TBH.

 

What do you do with windfarms when it is not that windy ?

[Smirking_Saint]

What do you do with windfarms when it is not that windy ?

 

Nothing, they just sit iddle,

 

but also when it is too windy they are innefficient.

 

I think they operate at top efficiency between 19 - 27 mph or something like that.

 

They are a relative waste of space.

 

Most of the new style 'green' energies are.

[Thedelldays]

Nothing, they just sit iddle,

 

but also when it is too windy they are innefficient.

 

I think they operate at top efficiency between 19 - 27 mph or something like that.

 

They are a relative waste of space.

 

Most of the new style 'green' energies are.

 

As long as the hippies and the liberals are happy'

 

Also Denmark have the most wind turbines per sq mile. Guess by how much the Danish gov have turned down their conventional power stations - none lol

[Smirking_Saint]

As long as the hippies and the liberals are happy'

 

Also Denmark have the most wind turbines per sq mile. Guess by how much the Danish gov have turned down their conventional power stations - none lol

 

But conventional are pretty efficient TBH.

 

Nuclear are also very efficient.

 

Solar, wind etc just are not.

 

The hydro one in wales is pretty good, but only works for a couple of hours.

 

For me nuclear is the way forward mate, but will take years to get there.

[St Landrew]

As long as the hippies and the liberals are happy'

 

Also Denmark have the most wind turbines per sq mile. Guess by how much the Danish gov have turned down their conventional power stations - none lol

 

How many more conventional power stations are they building..?

[tpbury]

1976 - you're obviously teriffically intelligent but also something of a bore. I suggest taking laudanum. Just accept it, enjoy the Weimar vibe and look forward to global nuclear catastrophe.

[View From The Top]

'Kin 'ell.

 

What a sad loser rant that is.

 

For the record, my life is great. :-)

[Thedelldays]

How many more conventional power stations are they building..?

dont know

 

but how much greener have they got..?

 

if you add up the carbon footprint to build the wind farm then the answer is NONE

[Saint Keith]

Man your life must really be f**ked if you actually had the time to write all that.

 

In answer to your worries just get your ass down the pub!

 

+1

 

im too busy working my ass off busting the recession to be able to sit and write all that

 

although i do agree with most of it. apart form the wanting house prices to fall further that is

[Smirking_Saint]

dont know

 

but how much greener have they got..?

 

if you add up the carbon footprint to build the wind farm then the answer is NONE

 

Of course there is a footprint. Planning, production of the windfarm, putting it up, transporting materials, everything has a footprint.

 

It just does not 'CREATE' any waste. And so they say it is carbon nuetral, but don't be fooled, if you build something it will have a carbon footprint.

 

 

 

Edit - I believe i have read your post wrong, and so believe i have just said what you meant.

Edited 26 June, 2009 by Smirking_Saint

[Rattlehead]

What a load of drivel. I mean obviously I couldn't be bothered to read it, but you can just tell it is utter drivel. What a saddo.

[Draino76]

And don't forget, unless you're in prison, you really do have control of you own destiny, to some extent.

[1976_Child]

What a load of drivel. I mean obviously I couldn't be bothered to read it, but you can just tell it is utter drivel. What a saddo.

 

thanks, how nice.

[TheCholulaKid]

You really are a miserablist, aren't you? Cheer up FFS. The sun's out. Why don't you splash £15 on seeing Sussex beat Aus at Hove tomorrow? Surely that would cheer you up. Just don't sit near me.

 

TheDellDays - more utterly moronic comments about something that you have no knowledge or understanding of. You need to back your evidence up with facts or just don't bother posting and save us from reading your misinformed, prejudiced drivel.

[Thedelldays]

You really are a miserablist, aren't you? Cheer up FFS. The sun's out. Why don't you splash £15 on seeing Sussex beat Aus at Hove tomorrow? Surely that would cheer you up. Just don't sit near me.

 

TheDellDays - more utterly moronic comments about something that you have no knowledge or understanding of. You need to back your evidence up with facts or just don't bother posting and save us from reading your misinformed, prejudiced drivel.

show me i am wrong then

[KK the 2nd]

Sorry 1976 for this.........

 

 

Can someone post a summary, i really can't be bothered

Basically, we're all f**ked now and will be even more f**ked in the future.

[TheCholulaKid]

show me i am wrong then

 

**** me. It's not up to me to show that you're wrong - I'm not the one making the bold statements. It's down to you to back your statements up with evidence.

 

If you can't then we'll just have to assume that what you wrote is, in fact, wrong. Got any evidence?

[Big John]

Basically, we're all f**ked now and will be even more f**ked in the future.

 

 

Worse things happen!

 

I heard on Radio 4 that someone got murdered tonight!

 

I would rather get f*ck*d than murdered. FACT (as the kids say).

[TopGun]

dont know

 

but how much greener have they got..?

 

if you add up the carbon footprint to build the wind farm then the answer is NONE

 

Wrong. Very often Denmark overproduces energy from wind and then sells the excess to Germany and Sweden. When their wind farms do not produce enough, they import conventional energy from Germany and Sweden. In reality Denmark, Germany and Sweden have all just become that bit more green.

 

They have no need to build conventional power stations the way they are doing it works just fine. It's an example of a good grid. Wind and other energy could be utilised much better if we had a few long distance DC grid connections in the UK. This is being planned at the moment.

[saintjinksie]

thanks, how nice.

 

I agree with most of what you have said. You missed one reason in the decline of our economy, and thats import and export. In times of hardship countires try to be more self sufficient, but thats not really an option here. We import too much of our food and energy and dont export enough products to cover that cost. There isnt much in Britain we produce that other countries cant produce cheaper or faster. Even the steel industry is going down the pan aswell.

[Smirking_Saint]

Wrong. Very often Denmark overproduces energy from wind and then sells the excess to Germany and Sweden. When their wind farms do not produce enough, they import conventional energy from Germany and Sweden. In reality Denmark, Germany and Sweden have all just become that bit more green.

 

They have no need to build conventional power stations the way they are doing it works just fine. It's an example of a good grid. Wind and other energy could be utilised much better if we had a few long distance DC grid connections in the UK. This is being planned at the moment.

 

I believe we are planning 2, one to holland and one to ireland.