Diabolus Ex Machina

I do find it funny how with only 48 hours left in the window we still have no idea who this attacking player is we might be after. You'd have thought there would have been rumblings in our interest leaked from somewhere by now - especially if it was a player of some repute - but we haven't heard a thing. Would beg the question are we really willing to sell if there isn't a player lined up to spend the cash on?

If we were to sell VvD and get in a new AM but it meant Bertrand and Cedric leaving in January and let’s say for arguments sake Gabbi being tapped up before the Jan window and refusing to play for us unless he got a move would you say that getting rid of him was worth it even if we got say £80m for him? That’s what I’m worried about – not about him staying and not playing (Hoedt, Yoshida & Stephens should be enough to have a decent if not spectacular season) or being a disruptive team influence (already disregarded by club captain Steven Davis on 2 occasions) but that the knock-on effects will leave us weaker in the long term. I don’t expect players to not want to leave even if we do keep Van Dijk here but at least they will know that we are prepared to stand our ground if need be. If anything it should be a warning that you would be much better dealing with us directly rather than trying to go behind our backs (applies to both our players and other clubs). We cannot be seen to be rewarding his behaviour by allowing him his move as it will just encourage others to follow his example if they ever want to move on and let’s face it, all players would prefer to be challenging for the title and be playing in the Champions League if they could (the extra money helps too of course) so it will happen again especially if a player has their head turned by another club.

Fair enough, most posts mentioning him around here have been of the 'Not good enough' for us mentality so I just think it's worth pointing out he did more than most last season. Like I said agree that the word 'Superb' is a bit much but so is all the rampant negativity regarding him.

Was our top scorer in the league last season with 7 goals. Of course Gabbi only coming in the second half of the season and Austins injury were a big part of that but the lad does know where the back of the net is at least. Superb may be an overstatement but he's making a contribution and has potential to improve whereas others are clearly underperforming.

We don't need to 'do' anything though if we don't want to - he's our player and if he's sold it should be because we want to not because we are forced to and not selling him is most definitely an option available to us. If we really believe that he has to be sold no matter want then surely there's no reason someone like Liverpool couldn't just now put in a lower bid of say £40m because they know we will accept it just to get him out of the club? Any admission that we can't / won't hold onto him only reduces any bargaining power we may have. You could argue that Tom28's little snippets have already opened up that possibility.

After spending the whole summer pushing the club’s strategy of wanting to keep all of our best players and that VVD was definitively not for sale, to go back on it now would be a total capitulation in my eyes. There’s also the fact that we’ve already heard that the likes of Cedric and Bertrand will want to go if he is sold and of course this would just show that we can be backed into a corner and will succumb to player demands meaning this could happen over and over again in the future. I don’t care how much of a d*ckhead he’s being or even if he refuses to play – giving in now is likely to have negative ramifications for the club for years to come and is bigger than just a single player or transfer. We have CB cover now and I’m hoping we’re not desperate for the money, so make him stay and then if he still refuses to play ball and wants to sit out a season then more fool him. A ridiculous bid that would be inconceivable for anyone to turn down may be enough to change things but I can’t see that happening, what with Liverpool apparently being the only team making a bid and even then Tom28 has said he doesn’t even know if we are willing to deal with them.

Think he might have some trouble getting in ahead of Lemina (record signing) and Romeu (last years player of the year)...

Again, didn't affect Wanyama moving to a top club, didn't affect Morgan moving to a top club and i'm sure after another season here it wouldn't stop Van Dijk moving on. Also hasn't stopped us signing Hoedt and i'm sure he's seen what's happening especially as it's his Dutch compatriot. Offer a player a big pay rise and first team football in the Prem and i'm willing to believe they wouldn't give two sh*ts about what we've done with other players - especially as they have all moved on to bigger clubs eventually anyway. I do agree it's quite possible that something was said to him about being allowed to leave, I also believe whatever back room dealings happened between him and Liverpool completely scuppered it for both of them so he needs to shoulder some of the blame for the current predicament. Honestly we've heard similar stories about the club before so it wouldn't surprise me if the club did change their stance and as his contract holder that is their prerogative. If we fail to get a player in the future and it's specifically mentioned it's because of the way we deal with players then feel free to say 'I told you so' but i've seen nothing to suggest it will be a problem so far and i'd rather go on the evidence we have than on pure speculation. Besides i'll ask again, which other team outside the top 6 has as good a track record recently of supplying players to the top 6 than us and do you really think they'd be any more willing to part with a potentially top, top player if a top 6 team came calling?

I honestly don't see how this stops us being seen as a good stepping stone club? Our record is second to none currently with players regularly going to the top 6 and also getting international recognition. Even the players that have been told to stay another year weren't negatively affected ending up at Spurs (Wanyama) and Man U (Morgan) respectively. The Van Dijk saga is just an affirmation that if a deal is going to be made then it will be on Saints terms which is the way it needs to be done to protect us in future dealings. Liverpool have screwed themselves over with their antics but other clubs seem to have been able to do business with us amicably in the past and i'm sure they will in the future if it's to the benefit of both sides. The reason we get these players in the first place is because we scout them well and are willing to take a risk with them where other clubs won't. If these players were considered that good they'd go straight to a team like Liverpool or Spurs but they don't so we can give them that platform they need to prove themselves - that hasn't changed or do you think the likes of a Stoke or a West Ham will make it any more likely for them to get to a top team cos i've seen absolutely no evidence of it so far!

So if I’m getting this right peoples major concern is that money will be taken from the club to finance repayments rather than being re-invested into the club? With the numbers mentioned so far do we even currently make enough annual profit to cover these suggested repayments? If not then surely they have only put themselves in a position to lose money which wouldn’t make sense? Likewise they certainly couldn’t risk us dropping out of the Prem by selling off all of our best players as that would also lead to a big shortfall in income. Perhaps they are counting on the continued growth of the Premier League and the T.V deals to increase the price of the club without them actually having to do anything – that gives them a profit when they do sell but doesn’t help with repayments in the interim. Point of fact is that if they are wanting to pay back a loan via the club then the club needs to be making money – and consistently as well – which means it is in their best interest to keep the club running well – bring players through the academy, keep the emphasis on good scouting to bring in new players rather than paying over the odds, trying to increase commercial revenue – basically running the club in the same way the Liebherrs did to make it a successful business venture. It may mean selling some of our best players but that’s nothing new either and is usually done on the basis that we are getting a good return for them. So yes we may not be getting lots of money for new players or pushing for top 6 as was initially suggested but we’re not suddenly going to be stripped of all assets and left to rot either, that is unless you seriously believe they would try and sell £210m+ worth of players and then try selling the club off I suppose. Can’t see it myself. I think it just irks people that the owners want some sort of return on their investment – the amount of snide comments about Kat for being able to make money off the club shows that (despite getting us back to the Prem, into Europe and consistently in Top 8 – and yes I’m also aware a lot of other people helped us get to that position but as owner it was her money on the line) and I think it’s the same with the new owners. Not sure what people expect really, for the owners to run the club at a personal loss? Why bother investing in a club at all then?

So we’ve learnt that the new owner wants his new business to make a profit (well duh) and wants the club to be sustainable (which is how we’ve been running the club anyway – and quite successfully I’d say). They also won’t be supplying any extra funds though with the progress seemingly being made with Hoedt this doesn’t seem to be hampering us in the market. OK it may mean having to sell a couple of players but as has already been discussed elsewhere we already have a full squad of 25 available so trimming the squad down a bit may be a necessity anyway. Whether this applies to future windows also isn’t clear at this point. If it is just about making money for them then it is in their interests to keep the club in good shape as well. This isn’t the same situation as the Liebherrs where they were able to buy the club on the cheap and so were practically guaranteed some sort of return on their investment, they will need to help the club grow in some way in order to get any sizeable return. While it looks like that won’t be in the form of investing additional funds in the playing personnel (again no different to how we were running things anyway) I can foresee them trying to increase things like our commercial revenue and market share in the East to try and grow in that sense (which – again – is what we have been trying to do anyway). Having to deal with the loan is an additional concern but you’d have hoped with both the Gao and Liebherrs business acumen that this would have already been taken into account before the takeover was finalised. Honestly to me it does very much sound like a case of ‘carry on as you are’ which considering how far it’s got us up to now I’m quite happy with. Circumstances can change obviously and some trepidation is certainly understandable and probably justified but I see no reason to panic just yet. Certainly it won’t bother me until I see any actual proof of the club being mishandled in some way.

The answer to all this is really quite simple in my mind and you don’t need to even move the transfer window for it either – clubs just need to take a stronger stance with players and actually follow it through. I don’t see why a club at the start of the window can’t just put out an official statement to all players / clubs / agents saying that they will only be doing business up until the start of the season and that after that point they will not sell their players under any circumstances. Yes you will get some players trying their luck but once you make an example of a few of them people will soon get the idea and get in line (or realise they need to do their business early and not hold out for a ‘last minute deal’ or let negotiations drag on). Problem is you have to be willing to keep hold of a disgruntled / want away player until at least the next window which may mean keeping them on the side-lines indefinitely but this is the only way clubs are going to get control back over things and is well overdue in my mind. This is why it’s so important for us to stick to our guns regarding Van Dijk – not just for our benefit but as an example to all clubs that you don’t need to cave to player demands. Arsenal seem to be doing the same with Sanchez so a precedent may already be being set. Of course the Prem is such a business nowadays that clubs can’t be seen to be letting an asset remain unused and possibly depreciate in value so they end up selling regardless just ensuring that the situation repeats itself in future.

Can’t see us selling him this window being that we’ve made our position of wanting to keep our best players clear and because of how far into the window we are. If they think we are going to accept a price as low as £15/20m, especially from a team like Chelsea who everyone knows has money (and is now seemingly a little desperate for players) they’ve got another thing coming. I do think this could end up being his last season with us though if he is still in demand come next summer.

Saints fans suggest one of Southampton's most prolific scorers ever may have the capacity to teach others a thing or two about goalscoring. Other Saints fans immediately ridicule them for it even though there is no evidence for either side to say whether or not he would make a good coach or not. Do you really think people were suggesting Lambert as some sort of miracle worker to turn around our poor shooting or that he should immediately come in and start taking training sessions? Fans obviously still have some affinity with him and would like to see him back with the club in some capacity and due to the fact he's still playing (or nearing retirement) a coaching position seems a realistic option (not a likely option - just plausible). To me it's no different to when people mention Gerrard with Liverpool or Henry at Arsenal. Of course he may have no interest in it at all anyway and it isn't going to happen regardless but it doesn't hurt to think about it as a 'what if' does it? Also he may not have been some sort of international superstar but it wouldn't surprise me if we had at least some local youngsters in the academy that would have started here when he was becoming a Saints legend and would look up to him in some way. Anyway, seem to be taking this way too seriously - i'm sure the club would pick a qualified coach every time if they needed one but I see no reason to belittle people just for wanting to see a former Saints legend back with the club in some capacity. Kinda nice to see people can still have that connection with players considering all the renegades and turncoats we have nowadays.

Well for reference here are the top 20 goal scoring midfielders in the prem last season. Redmond is tied 13th on 7. 1. Dele Alli Tottenham Hotspur 18 2. Eden Hazard Chelsea 16 3. Son Heung-Min Tottenham Hotspur 14 4. Philippe Coutinho Liverpool 13 4. Sadio Mané Liverpool 13 6. Michail Antonio West Ham United 9 6. Gylfi Sigurdsson Swansea City 9 8. Willian Chelsea 8 8. Christian Eriksen Tottenham Hotspur 8 8. Adam Lallana Liverpool 8 8. Manuel Lanzini West Ham United 8 8. Mesut Özil Arsenal 8 13. Etienne Capoue Watford 7 13. Nathan Redmond Southampton 7 13. Robert Snodgrass West Ham United 7 13. Junior Stanislas AFC Bournemouth 7 13. Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 7 18. Joe Allen Stoke 6 18. Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 6 18. Leroy Fer Swansea City 6 Anyone thinking we can easily get a midfielder who can score 10+ a season just needs to look at the names above to see how likely that is. Most will be at big clubs already and the ones that aren't such as Gylfi now have an asking price of £50m which I can't see us paying. We found a gem in Mane and he was snatched up by a bigger club in no time and it would be foolish to assume we can easily find another little-known player like him so easily. Yes we do need our midfielders to contribute more goals but i'm hopeful a change in playing style will help with that rather than needing to completely revamp the midfield.

Pleased with the performance if not the result but hey we don’t win at home on opening day do we. Tadic and Yoshida with the best chances but really need to test the keeper more. The fact we were creating so many chances, especially as Swansea looked very much set up to just defend for the vast majority of the game is promising since we’d be lucky to get a quarter of that many chances in a similar type of situation last year. Ref had a bit of a shocker – Tadic should have had a pen and Romeu should never have been booked. That tackle on Redmond should have been punished as well but don’t think we should have had the pen for handball – would have gone straight into the lads chest/face if he hadn’t put his hands up so gained no advantage from in. What pleased me the most was the effort all the lads put in. You could see how badly they wanted to win and seemingly have all bought in to the managers tactics. Glad to see an emphasis on attacking football as well. I’d almost suggest the Van Dijk saga isn’t affecting them at all – all the more reason to stand our ground on him as it doesn’t seem to be as disruptive as others think. Good early signs and if we can improve our finishing should lead to good things the rest of the season.

The point about the transfer window not closing until after the start of the season looks to be a very prominent one this year – just look at all the teams having to deal with outstanding player issues before a ball has even been kicked… Saints with Van Dijk Liverpool with Countinho Arsenal with Sanchez Swansea with Sigurdsson Everton with Barkley Spurs with Rose Chelsea with Costa Leicester with Mahrez This is affecting the big teams now more and more and it wouldn’t surprise me if they started putting some pressure on the FA to try and change things up a bit. I’m sure all the managers would prefer if all this was resolved and their squads were finalised before having to start the season.

Depends on a lot of variables really – will the new managers tactics increase our number of chances? Will we continue relying on crosses from the wings or start taking a more direct approach (which probably suits our strikeforce better)? Will Austin and Gabbi remain injury free? Will Gallagher be able to provide some threat like he did for Blackburn on loan? Will JWP continue to improve and chip in with some more goals (I’ve noticed he’s been getting in better positions last year and this pre-season at least)? Can Long possibly be any more wasteful with chances than last season? (can’t see how!). I was of the opinion that our goal return last year was pretty much the worst we could have done with the players we have and so am expecting an improvement just on the law of averages. Like I said though, there are a lot of variables and so nothing is guaranteed. There’s also the issue that even if we score more we may be likely to concede more due to the absence of VVD so more goals may not even lead to greater success. Really don’t think we’ll have any real idea until at least 5 games in where we see how the new managers tactics are working and what form players are in but I’m mildly optimistic.

This is a good point and the way prices are going right now i'd suggest it may even be cheaper to buy now and pay an extra years wages rather than pay a more extortionate fee for a player next year. For the record I think Stephens and Yoshida are perfectly serviceable as a CB pairing but do agree that a VVD replacement would be needed and should be good enough to slot straight into the starting line-up. On a separate note i'm starting to think we could have a pretty strong looking bench this year. If we assume that either VVD stays or is replaced with sufficient quality and that we bring in a good loan keeper if McCarthy is injured it could look something like - *Loan GK*, Yoshida/Stephens, Targett, Davis/JWP, Boufal, Long & Austin with the Likes of Pied, Hojberg, Bednarek, Gardos, McQueen, Sims & Gallagher left out of the matchday squad completely...

May I just say that is one of the most even-handed and sensible things I have ever seen posted on here. Bravo! Couple of little points though - yes other teams do have just as many loony fans as we do the problem with relying on an internet forum for opinions is it allows anyone to comment and normally it's those who shout loudest that get heard most and being that - in the majority - they're one's mostly looking just for attention the more reasonable and level-headed posts can often be missed (or people are put off posting altogether). I assure you this is not restricted to just Saints though (or fans - you just need to hear some of the rubbish that comes out of pundits mouths). In other words just take everything written on here with a big grain of salt Secondly, while I agree that people shouldn't expect any transfers in without outgoings (especially because of squad size limitations) I can still see why people would be frustrated with our transfer dealings as with the increased monies available in the Prem the hope is that we could improve on what we currently have and push on from our current position (generally what people are talking about when they mention the club's 'ambition'). For example in the case of Long - while it's true when you say we are not likely to find someone as good in his price range - especially as third choice striker - there is nothing to say we couldn't sell him and get another starting quality striker in if we wished and just move everyone else down a slot into 2nd and 3rd choice etc... I can see why we wouldn't due to the additional cost of a new striker/ lost revenue from selling Long cheap and the discontent it would cause with the other strikers but i'm saying it is an option that would be open to the club if the increased revenue streams in the Prem allow for it. Still that's mainly me playing devil's advocate as i'm relatively happy with how we are running things and understand that the business side is important to keeping the club sustainable (and remembering our recent history and struggles I am glad they are doing so) but I can see why others might think differently. Anyway top post!

Considering the clubs plan for this year was seemingly to sign players to long contracts and maintain some stability I don't think the idea of bringing in lots of new players was ever really something to be expected. We also have a pretty decently sized squad too i'd say. If VVD is going he needs replacing which it sounds like we are doing and we also have got Bednarek already. McCarthy is seemingly injured again and with Taylor and Gazzaniga the backups I think the idea of a superior goalie on loan is not necessarily a bad one (though it does beg the question why we bothered with Taylor in the first place if so). Lemina is a brand new signing though it wouldn't surprise me if the other one to go was Clasie given his lack of game time pre-season so that follows the 1 in - 1 out scenario. The attacking player on loan is an interesting one - we have decent options going forwards with Redmond, Tadic, Boufal, Long, Austin, Gabbi etc...so there isn't a particular need for a player in that position. Possibly we think we see a good possible deal but price/wages are a possible issue so want to 'try before we buy'. To me sounds like the kind of situation that could occur with Barkley who some have said we've been interested in? So 2 loans - one for what is basically emergency goalie cover and another for a position we are already well stocked in and there is a potentially high risk (and where we also want an option to buy anyway). Seems to me more of a case of why spend when it's not necessary?

I'd assume that would be grounds to fine him his wages indefinitely no? (is refusal to play breach of contract?). If you take the stance that he only cost us £13m and that that's what we are actually losing by not playing him i'd say that's not too bad (no worse than the whole Osvaldo mess for example). Make it clear that he's not going anywhere and that we are quite happy to have Yoshida / Stephens / Bednarek / Gardos as CB options and have no need to replace him and i'm sure he'd soon get the idea that he's all out of options and that he can either waste at minimum another 6 months of his ever so short career or he can get back to playing and proving he's worth other clubs paying what we want for him so he can get his 'big' move in January or next summer.

Recently we have seemed to want to keep details of transfers very close to our chest whether that be incoming or outgoing. With a player that has been receiving attention from elsewhere (notably Stoke) it is perhaps best to not show our intentions in public until something is confirmed lest the club look bad if it were to fall through. Deceived? Yes you could see it that way but i'd prefer to think we are just playing it safe and not confirming anything until it is actually done. It's not like the fans knowing the details would make it any more or less likely to go through is it? There's also the issue of 'tapping up' which considering our stance with Liverpool we would obviously want to keep well away from (which is not to say we have tapped the player up at all just that it's not a good idea to go telling everyone about your business - something other teams would be wise to take note of).

I'd assume 'agent talk' to get an idea of wage demands etc.. is generally accepted. Meeting directly with the player to tell him how you are going to integrate him into the team and possibly tell him how he can try and force a move not so much.

Confirmation that Gazzaniga is definitely on his way by his omission? maybe not a surprise seeing Stephens at 5 being it's likely he'll be starting at CB for at least the start of the season. With 6 and 9 available any chance of a CDM and AM coming in?