Diabolus Ex Machina

What's this based on,wondering if i've missed something? He's on one of our longest contracts and i've not heard of any interest for him from other clubs so would surprise me. Also believe Stephens is rumoured to have signed a new contract but it just wasn't made public for some reason.

Random fact of the day - that brace for Ward-Prowse is the first time a Saint had scored twice in the same game in the league this season. We're certainly a team of ups and downs under Ralph and we seemed to get that throughout a single game today. I'm waiting until the end of the season to make any firm conclusions about how our season has gone - still 12 points up for grabs and a lot of teams in the middle/middle-bottom range of the league that are much of a muchness this season so positions will fluctuate a lot between now and the end of the season. We're comfortably staying up so job done really but it's not unfair to question if progress is really being made, though to be honest I believe any real progress will be down to recruitment more than any other factor.

I'd argue it's more than that - it's simply taking advantage of the flaws of the high press system. The defensive teams can sit back and look for a quick / direct counter where even with just one or two up top they can be left with only the centre backs to deal with if Romeu / JWP are too high (this also happens a lot with us on our offensive corners). Better teams like Chelsea don't even need to sit back to do this as they have players capable of passing it through the midfield cutting them out that way. The reason we've got points off the likes of Man City is because Ralph has shown them more respect and set us up more defensively so they have to break us down more rather than relying on the centre backs to do all the defensive work at the back. If you've got the likes of Van Dijk at the back it can work. With a Jan Bednarek not so much. Don't get me wrong the press works for us quite well a lot of the time, he just needs to be careful of when we go all out with it and when we need to sit back more (which includes after conceding where the chasing of a equalizer / leading goal often leads to us conceding another).

Which one's that have left since Ralph joined would you suggest have been improved out of interest? As a club we have a good history of it but there's not been as much proof recently. It's telling that out of the first teamers that have left during his tenure it was either because their contract expired (Bertrand) or they were going into their last year and not looking to re-sign and so we had to recoup what we could (Hojbjerg, Vestergaard, Ings). Part of it is the drop in quality in the academy but I don't think the inconsistent performances under Ralph are helping put some of these players in the shop window. We've not really had anyone knocking down our door for a player since VvD left with the exception of Villa coming in for JWP recently but we don't seem to have any interest in selling him, just as no other players have been sold from under Ralph during his time here - unless you include those whose contracts would be run down to let them go on a free, which from a purely financial viewpoint would be ridiculous to allow. He's not had a lot to spend but i'd say he's been given whatever we could afford and have tried to keep our best players for him.

Strong line-up. Actually think we can get something from this if we stay tight at the back and look for opportunities on the break with Broja or set pieces. Only the 3rd start of the season for Stu Armstrong having got a win against Villa and draw with Spurs on his previous starts. Also only the second competitive game KWP and Perraud will be playing together with the first being the draw with Spurs when Salisu got sent off in the first half. Be interesting to see how they do together.

The thing with stats is that they are simply data - a record of what has actually happened though without context. They can be used as an indicator of possible future performance but they are certainly not a crystal ball that will tell you what will happen, there are simply too many variables for that. It's the interpretation of them that seems to be the problem most of the time. For example - you say an extra goal a game would have given us x more points, which while true is speculative based on the fact that the extra goal would be the only thing that changed in the game - as the goals never happened we have no way of definitively knowing if they would have affected the points we would actually get. On the other hand I could point out that out of the 5 times we've scored 2+ goals this season we've only won once (and still conceded twice in that game - total points for those 5 games = 7pts) whereas in the 5 games where we've kept clean sheets we've managed to get 3 wins (11 pts total over the 5 games). These were results that actually happened and show that a better points return has come this season when we've prevented goals rather than scoring multiple goals ourselves and so the data would show that improving our defense would lead to a greater points return. But even that could be deemed too simplistic really - games are rarely super one-sided and a single mistake or bad ref call or injury/illness at the wrong time can turn a result around in a moment and could make a big difference on the stats for a season when dealing with a smallish set of data. If you want a more accurate picture you'd have to take a look at the data over a longer period of time to see if any actual pattern emerges and even then things like managers and playing personnel can change season to season and so a direct comparison will always be difficult. The more stats you have to back up a position the better but that still doesn't make that position definitive, though i'd take the opinion of someone who tries and back it up with some figures and reasoning more seriously every time over someone who just pulled stuff out their backside because it fits the narrative they are trying to push.

Well according to Transfermarkt we have the 15th most valuable squad at £217.17m which would probably be a better measurement of squad quality rather than what we pay them in wages, so current position of 14th is about right by that measurement. As such he's doing a pretty average job yes? Not particularly higher than what our squad would suggest but certainly not lower either. If we'd been able to beat teams like Newcastle and Norwich though we could have been as high as 9th currently which I think most would see as a marked improvement and were certainly winnable games for us. Perhaps you disagree though so where do you think we should be and should our current position be seen as better, worse or about as expected?

And so the Ralph conundrum continues…we hold on against Brighton and we currently would have been 11th in the table on 18pts which I think most would be happy with. Instead it’s 2 more dropped points from a winning position and leaves us in 14th with potential to drop further before the end of the game week. It is still another point on the board however and with a 6 point gap to the relegation zone we shouldn’t be in panic mode yet. As that middle of the pack starts to stretch out we need to be nearer the top than the bottom though. Don’t hold out much hope against Arsenal but Palace and Brentford could be good chances to pick up more points. Regardless of the individual errors that have cost us at times the stat about points lost from winning positions since Ralph arrived are pretty damning in the fact that it is a problem that has not been improved upon. Then again you can’t lose those points unless you’re in a position to win them – would that be happening under another coach? The whole fiasco with McCarthy and not knowing/being told the extent of his injury is a little worrying as it seems to show a lack of communication between the bench and players. The players seem to all be with Ralph though so maybe a one-off rather than any cracks appearing in the players relationship with him. Will have to wait and see on that I think. In the overall scheme of things this isn’t even the worst start we’ve had under Ralph – in 2019/20 we were only on 15 points after 15 games. We finished the season in 11th on 52 points however so maybe some optimism there (though I don’t think we have anyone capable of matching Ings output that season to help us reach those heights this season). On the other hand, if we matched our performance from last season from this point on we’d only finish on 33 points which would definitely have us as relegation candidates and is extremely concerning with our goalscoring issues and injuries to our 2 first team keepers. Feels like it really could go any way currently, I’m just glad there appears to be at least 3 teams worse than us in the league. One last comparison for fun (as you really can’t make a direct comparison), but in the much-maligned Pellegrino’s season with us he had managed 17 points in his first 15 games. His 16th game – against Arsenal. We got a draw.

Just saying the lure of the Premier League and the extra money that comes with it could be attractive to an up and coming manager or someone more proven that eventually wants a position at a bigger club. You think the likes of Poch, Koeman and Ralph came here thinking we were going to be one of the best teams in the league or that they would have unlimited funds? As for the quality of manger - I didn't say (and haven't ever said) Ralph 'isn't very good' - my post even said I think he's doing OK this season - so either you're trying to put words into other peoples mouths or you're saying you don't think he's very good but every other manager is worse? I think some have overrated his performance since his time with us as a whole and that our current performance this season is about what I would expect from this squad and so the idea of someone else doing as well doesn't seem far fetched to me. You seem to be making the assumption that any possibly available manager would automatically perform worse than Ralph when you have no way of knowing that. Sometimes it just doesn't work for a manager in a particular league or club, sometimes tactics and management styles become outdated (see Mourinho for a good example of this) it's not a simple case of 'he's good' or 'he's bad' but nuanced thinking seems to be beyond the comprehension level of a large number on here. Regardless, it's only a 'what if' scenario right now and I wouldn't expect a change unless the season starts going particularly badly and we look to be in real relegation trouble.

Well 13th is currently only 2 points above us. A win against any of Norwich, Burnley or Newcastle and that's where we'd actually be. Are we being unrealistic to think we should win against those sort of teams? Money spent is also not always a direct correlation with quality. Were we in a better position when we got rid of Hughes for Ralph? The Premier League, the better wages and the chance to put yourself in the shop window for a better move in the future are all things that could attract a manager in the same way we try to attract players with those things. I'm certainly not saying we should get rid of Ralph (think he's doing ok this season though some of those questionable decisions from last season are rearing their head again past couple of games) but it's not some impossibility that we couldn't find someone else and with an average of about a point a game currently it's not the highest of bars to clear to do as well or better either. Too early to say if anything needs to be done anyway, a couple of wins in a row currently and you're knocking on the door for European places, couple of losses and you're hovering just above the relegation zone. I've said it before but the next 5 or so games against the teams around us will show us if we are in real trouble or not.

Little harsh on Puel I think. His win % with us is now better than Ralphs I believe and in his one season had Redmond as his top scorer and his best player in Van Dijk out for half the season. Still managed to get us the memorable cup semi-final against Liverpool, had us go toe-to-toe with United in the final and got us a win against Inter Milan in Europe. I don't think he'd have us performing any better than we currently are but don't think he'd do particularly worse either.

There's been some where he's only come on as a sub but the last time we won a league game he didn't feature in at all was a 2-1 win against Norwich on 4th December 2019. Games against Palace, Wolves and Fulham in his first season here are the only other times he's not played in the league and we've won.

Probably true, but we've also only managed 2 out of 9 points against the teams in the relegation places with our only wins being against the 2 teams directly above the drop zone and an Aston Villa team you believe is inferior to ours. Last season we only won 2 out of 20 matches against teams that finished in the top half (Liverpool and 10th placed finishers Everton) and haven't beaten any of the teams this season that are sitting in the top half. Either we have to be able to pick up results against the better teams now and then or need to be beating the majority of teams around us. This is why the dropped points against the likes of Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley are frustrating and a little worrisome as these are our best chances of getting points on the board. The next run of games against the likes of Leicester, Brighton, Palace and Brentford should show us where we're actually at and the table is so tight you can jump up or drop dramatically with a couple of good or bad results right now. I'm certainly not seeing Ralph getting us performing better than we should be though - i'd say we're about where i'd expect with this squad. Look over his time here - he took over an under performing team from Hughes and got them performing. He had a good season when he had the second highest scorer in the league (though not enough to get top half), a poor season when he had to deal with injuries and poor squad depth and now has us lingering in the middle of the bottom half with an average squad and no prolific scorer. I wouldn't say he's got us playing badly but it seems it's the players available that are making the biggest difference rather than his contributions - has he ever really had us playing above our level or have the periods of good and bad form purely been down to having/not having our best players available and/or on form? He may have reached 'Champions League' level while in Germany but he hasn't come close to that level in the Prem in my opinion.

Agreed that it is a silly mentality as it is a combination of things that go into any teams successes and failures. Having a better squad will also obviously help with results/performances unless you are a truly dire manager (which I don't believe Ralph to be). A lot of this talk seems to skirt around my main issues with Ralph last season though so let me try putting it this way... During last seasons poor run do you believe that - when you take into account injuries, squad depth, covid and all other factors - Ralph did the best he could with what was available? Do you think the performances, results and points return over those last 20 games from January onwards was the best we could have hoped for under the circumstances? I'm not looking for a discussion about what options were available or what outside factors were at play i'm purely interested on how people think Ralph reacted to and dealt with these issues. Did he do a good job when a bad hand was played to him or did he fumble when his back was up against the wall? My personal opinion is that - again having taken all other elements into account - we still under performed due to the manager in that he was unable to do anything to overturn our bad form and that decisions that were made actively hampered us in some cases. It would appear that many think he did well enough or at least not bad enough for it to be a problem but it's hard to get a judge on this as the discussion is always shifted to the other factors rather than to Ralph himself. In the end though he still did enough over the course of the season to keep us up and both him and the squad look to have improved greatly this season. Perhaps last seasons poor run is something that can be looked at as a one off and left in the past but it has left doubt in my mind as to how he can deal with adversity when it does arrive.

Does work the other way around too though - our good form is down to the better quality of players available and not just the manager. I personally believe Ralph could have done better with what he had last season during our terrible spell from January onwards and that a number of his decisions actively hampered us during our worst spell. To his credit a large number of those he's resolved this season - a greater focus on defense, being more decisive with subs and making them early when required, seemingly deciding on his no.1 keeper for just a few examples. We look to be on the up and Ralph has certainly played his part in it. I'm interested in seeing how we do when a poor run of form inevitably comes (as they do for any team). Ralph's time with us has been very 'streaky' where we have had long periods of good form as well as long runs of poor form so i'd like to see if we can break that habit when things start turning the other way again.

Can't say I particularly agree with their assumption that the N/A games should count as a 0-0 draw. The fact that the team was previously in the Championship suggests that the equivalent team we'd have faced those seasons would have been one of the newly promoted teams where we may have been more likely to pick up all 3 points rather than just one. Working under that assumption that the N/A's could be 3pts each would put us about level on points with previous seasons with the exception of last year. While performances have improved (especially defensively), we are sitting in 14th after a quarter of the season averaging 1.1pts a game which if we continued on that form would have us finishing on 42pts. We finished last season in 15th on 43pts for comparison. Things are looking more promising but there's still a lot of work to be done. 1-0 wins against Leeds and Watford while welcome aren't enough evidence for me to think we've fully turned things around or have made significant progress. Hopefully we can get results against Villa and Norwich and put some distance between us and the bottom teams and continue to push on from there. Like I said promising signs but let's not jump the gun too early.

Since neither side of the argument is willing to do the leg work to support their claims as usual - against the 'traditional' top 6 (City, Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal)... Puel - 0W 4D 8L Pellegrino - 0W 3D 6L Hughes - 0W 1D 6L Hassenhuttl - 6W 9D 19L Ralphs record is clearly the best of our most recent managers against the top 6 (not exactly a high bar mind) but worth noting his last win against a top 6 team was 31 games ago against Liverpool, one before that was 22 more games back against City. That's 2 wins against the 'top 6' in his last 53 league games. He's been in charge now for 108 games so that period covers half his time managing us. Following the general pattern with Ralph, he started well and has dropped off over time. While i'm dropping stats i'd point out that last season we only won 2 out of 20 (10%) games against teams that finished in the top 10 (Liverpool and a win against 10th placed finishers Everton) and that our points total was heavily dependent on beating bottom half teams where we won 10 out of 18 (56%). So far this season we are 1 of 6 (17%) against top half teams (Leeds having finished ninth last year) and 0 for 3 (0%) against lower half/promoted teams. Even if we win all of our next 3 games against Watford, Villa and Norwich that will only push that win % up to 50% against lower half teams - below what we got last year on what I think most would agree was not a good season for us. This is what is most concerning to me and shows how important it is to get all 3 points against these sort of teams which is what has made the results against the likes of Newcastle, Wolves and Burnley so disappointing. Either we have to start turning some of these plucky or unlucky draws against the better teams into wins or we have to make sure we are getting all 3 points against the lesser teams more often than not.

Probably more the fact that over the last 38 league games we've only managed 8 wins, 34 points, only beaten one top half team (Liverpool) and seen one of the worst runs of form in the clubs entire history. The bad start is a continuation of an appalling run of form from last year which extenuating circumstances or not still falls under Ralphs responsibility. You'd like to think he'd be given the next few games to try and get something as it has admittedly been a tough start fixture wise but it's a results business and he's not been getting them for a long time now. I don't know if Howe would be the answer but then i'm not convinced Ralph isn't the main problem at the moment either and that almost anyone else could give us an uptick in form.

In the last 38 league games our only wins have come against Newcastle, Brighton, Sheffield United (x2), Liverpool, Burnley, Crystal Palace & Fulham. Liverpool was obviously a good result but the rest shows you the level we have been at for the equivalent of a full season now. I actually think our start has been decent but that we needed more from the Newcastle and Wolves games. The games coming up though are the games we have to be picking up wins in because it seems highly doubtful we can pick them up elsewhere.

For me he was previously very solid if generally unspectacular and would have the occasional outstanding game where he would throw himself in front of everything. Certainly worthy of a starting place in the team. Last year really was diabolical for him though and if anything got worse as the season went on. Thinking he needed a break really and am hoping he gets back to his previous form this season.

Presumably because it's none of your business and putting it out there on the internet could lead to unwelcome attention from all sorts of weirdos. I could easily see someone spamming the players social media about Duckhunters posts or vise versa if they knew there was a connection. I think Duckhunter is a bit of a d*ck but trying to pressure him into revealing family info is well out of line in my opinion. I swear the straight up harassment people give each other here gets worse and worse by the day and it's seemingly just allowed.

Not including penalties, Che scored 9 goals for us last season, Ings scored 10. If Armstrong can match Che with 9 i'd say we're in a good position.

I know not everyone is a stats guy and they don't tell the whole story but statistically in the Prem, Obafemi is practically identical to Nketiah and about the same age. Worth considering when they'd want £15-20m for him and a lot of people on here would be willing to let Obafemi go for a pittance. I'd certainly keep him but agree that game time is what he really needs to kick on whether that be with us or on loan.

Seems to me he always planned to play 2 different line-ups for these 2 friendlies. The team for Everton will probably be a mix of the two along with potentially Vestergaard and JWP back in the mix. Personally I would have preferred he played his strongest side in this last friendly but hey i'm not the manager. No clue why the bench has been left so short for both games though - you'd think he'd want more options to replace people if they get a knock.

I don't disbelieve you but when what we've heard so far amounts to... - Villa made a 'derisory' offer presumably far off of our valuation of the player (have since reportedly come in with a second offer of unknown value) - The package they have offered JWP also doesn't sound like it's impressed him - Adam Blackmore, a source close to the club has said he won't be sold to Villa except for an extortionate price ("would have to buy the club") - Player is on a long term contract with no need for us to sell at a low price I fail to see how him going is the more likely option at this point. It really comes down to that 'at the right price' bit - maybe they come in with a ridiculously high offer that we'd be stupid to refuse using the Grealish money but I expect our valuation of Ward-Prowse will be higher than they are willing to pay especially as they are already getting up there in spending having bought in Buendia, Bailey and now Ings.