Redslo

It is interesting how much out of date that article sounds now.

FACT?

Toomer, what makes you so much more optimistic than Jack?

True. But our chance of winning the CL is not actually 0 so if we do this will give someone the chance to claim they are a genius. Hopefully, me in 2034. Or maybe Southampton will win it in 2083 after its original home city of Southampton, England has been flooded out of existence by global warming and the club has resettled in the new coastal port of Southampton, Pennsylvania.

But betting patterns often change quickly in response to people with second hand inside information (or even first hand information) placing bets.

I predict 2034.

If there is to be a post-FFP with unlimited spending, there will be lots of competitors spending lots of money. I am not convinced that would increase our chances of winning the CL. With a little bit of luck, this could have been that unique season. I am not sure what you mean by us ending up in the Europa play off. If we had finished third we would have been in the group phase. If we finished fourth we would have been in the CL playoff. If we had lost we would have been in the Europa Group phase. But with regular European competition, we can (given the size of the PL TV contract) attract the next level of players and some of them maybe well develop to be very good before we sell them. What would we accomplish next year if, for example, Mane had a Suarez style break out year (without the biting). Exactly. That is the whole point of being a fan of a club that isn't Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Barcelona, Real Madrid, or one of a few others. I assume that this is pretty much management's plan. Clubs other than the currently established top four occasionally qualify for the CL. And the established top four does change. CL qualification is unlikely for us in any given year, but if current management stays with the club for 10 or 20 years, qualification in one of those years is more likely than not. Man City can compete, they just haven't yet. If FFP is loosened up, they will win the CL eventually. Maybe I should start that thread. EDIT: Done. http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?54385-When-will-Southampton-win-the-Champions-League&p=2196504#post2196504 It would be an interesting experiment to see what a club like Southampton could do with Mourinho as its manager. You can't see it. It is transparent. Try feeling for it carefully so you don't break it and cut yourself. Welcome back. You missed a lot more incisive commentary. Also, read my blog. http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/ http://redsloscf.blogspot.co.uk/ No, but expanding the stadium if we can sell the seats is a good idea. I am happy to spend Ms. Liebherr's money on that. Under the current version of FFP, none of them--especially Chelsea--has all the money they need. Do you really think Mourinho would not have preferred to have a few more top notch players so he could rotate his squad more? As an American sports fan it does bother me a bit that the system is rigged so that some clubs are unlikely to ever compete at the highest level. In the US any well run club can hope to win a championship in the next two or three years--most do not of course. This is the price that football pays for relegation and multiple competitions. Being an American, when I was twelve I was crazy, not mental.

I just published "Is America the Right Jurisdiction for the FIFA Corruption Charges?" http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/ http://redsloscf.blogspot.co.uk/

Yes, it really turns things around to know that a player who might be good might sign for us. With that kind of news already coming out we are guaranteed a better summer than last year. Especially given the bad news I discovered today. I went to the official Premier League web site and discovered that we had dropped all the way from 7th to 14th in the current table.

No. But I want Southampton to have a chance to qualify for the Champions League in a good year. If English clubs do poorly in Europe that will never happen.

Couldn't he record them and write them up later?

Well that is foolish because England would quickly lose a champions league spot and if they kept losing eventually England would only qualify one or two clubs for the champions league. Sorry, but if you want Southampton to have any shot at the champions league or regular European competition, English clubs need to do well in Europe--certainly better than they did last year. I just blogged about this. http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/2015/06/englands-coefficient-problems.html

Remember, that is 200K a week with no transfer fee.

1) Sorry. 2) Sorry. Feel free not to respond to this. 3) Thank you.

fixed

I have just posted "England’s Coefficient Problems." http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/ http://redsloscf.blogspot.co.uk/ Also, if possible, could the person who posts under the account name "The9" please email me at rgk3@charter.net. Thank you and good night.

It is not quite that simple. As I interpret the rules, someone who plays in the qualifying rounds can be registered for the group phase for a different club. Also, someone transferred in January can register for their new club if they are moving up from the Europa League to the Champions League or down from the Champions League to the Europa League (so long as their prior club did not also move down). If I am right, Clyne or Schneiderlin (or anyone else) can play for us in our qualifying rounds and still play for someone else in the group and knockout phases. In theory that means we could keep and play them with the intent to transfer them if we get knocked out in August. Here are the rules: 18.07 As a rule, a player may not play in a UEFA club competition (i.e. UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League, but not UEFA Super Cup) for more than one club in the course of the same season. Exceptionally, however, a player who has been fielded in the first, second, third qualifying round or the play-offs of the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League is entitled to play in the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League for another club as from the group stage. Moreover, as from the start of the round of 16, a player can be registered in accordance with paragraphs 18.18 to 18.21 below. A substitute player who has not been fielded is entitled to play for another club competing in the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League in the course of the same season, provided that he is registered with the UEFA administration in accordance with the present regulations.   Subsequent registration 18.18 For all matches from the start of the round of 16, a club may register a maximum of three new eligible players for the remaining matches in the current competition. Such registration must be completed by 1 February 2013 (24.00 CET) at the latest. This deadline cannot be extended. 18.19 One player from the above quota of three who has been fielded in a UEFA club competition group stage match for another club in the current season may exceptionally be registered, provided that the player has not been fielded: a) in the same competition for another club; or b) for another club that is currently in the same competition. 18.20 One or more players from the above quota of three who have been fielded only in the first, second or third qualifying round or play-offs of the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League for another club are entitled to be registered. 18.21 If the registration of such new players causes the number of players on List A to exceed 25, the club must remove the necessary number of currently registered players to reduce the squad to 25 players again. The quota of the “locally trained players” must be respected when registering new players. Newly registered players must wear set numbers which have not yet been assigned.

Sorry I misunderstood the original question. Comparing the two chart, however, we can see how much more significant premier league money is.

http://www.totalsportek.com/football/premier-league-prize-money-table-2015/ Looking at this chart more closely it appears they have made some minor arithmetic errors in the facility fees. Manchester United, for example, appears to be off by 750K. It is probably close enough for our purposes however.

But definitely not 17th.

Could someone redo this with Koeman's head on all of the bodies? Also, this might be of interest: http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11662/9872455/dutch-coaches-in-england-ronald-koeman-could-be-just-the-start

Good pivot.

Probably not. I posted this on another thread but it is relevant here: Remember that looking at profits is misleading. Income from player sales is included in profits, but the costs of buying players are amortized over the lifetime of the player's contract (everything is in pounds even though I am American): Thus, if we sell 100 Million worth of players (assume no remaining unamortized cost for those players), buy 100 million in players, and sign them to four year contracts that yields a player trading profit of 75 million minus this year's amortization for players already with the club. Yet, there is no inherent positive cash flow to show for that 75 million. Depending on the salaries of the outgoing and the incoming players their might be a cash flow negative from the transactions. In the year ending June 2013 Southampton had 13.2 million in player amortization plus an additional 2.1 million in impairment costs (which I assume is a hodgepodge of lost value for players not deemed good enough.) Total salary costs were 47.1 million. In the year ending June 2014 Southampton had 20.7 million in player amortization plus an additional 6.3 million in impairment costs (which I assume is mostly the cost of Osvaldo head butting Fonte.) Total salary costs were 63 million. Very likely all of these numbers (except maybe impairment costs) will be up again for the season that just passed and the season yet to come. The remaining book value of our players as of June 30 2014 was 41.1 million. The value of players bought after June 30 must be added to that. Likely there will be additional impairment costs as well--in fact, if Ramirez and Osvaldo are sufficiently impaired they might be sold at a paper profit since the bulk of their cost will already be off the books. Of course, the paper profit does not change the reality of the real loss their purchase entailed. My point: we do not necessarily have lots of money to spend unless we sell some players for big money. That will change next season with the big new television contracts but all of our competitors will have more money too. For what it is worth FM 2015 does not indicate the presence of a sell on clause for Schneiderlin. They do try to keep track of such things. (Lallana's clause, for example, was in the data base for years.) FFP and the salary cap are not issues for us. The issue is our owner's desire to stop putting in money and the cash flow limitations that result from that. Of course, spending wisely and getting Osvaldo and Ramirez off the books will help with cash flow.

Remember that looking at profits is misleading. Income from player sales is included in profits, but the costs of buying players are amortized over the lifetime of the player's contract (everything is in pounds even though I am American): Thus, if we sell 100 Million worth of players (assume no remaining unamortized cost for those players), buy 100 million in players, and sign them to four year contracts that yields a player trading profit of 75 million minus this year's amortization for players already with the club. Yet, there is no inherent positive cash flow to show for that 75 million. Depending on the salaries of the outgoing and the incoming players their might be a cash flow negative from the transactions. In the year ending June 2013 Southampton had 13.2 million in player amortization plus an additional 2.1 million in impairment costs (which I assume is a hodgepodge of lost value for players not deemed good enough.) Total salary costs were 47.1 million. In the year ending June 2014 Southampton had 20.7 million in player amortization plus ad additional 6.3 million in impairment costs (which I assume is mostly the cost of Osvaldo head butting Fonte.) Total salary costs were 63 million. Very likely all of these numbers (except maybe impairment costs) will be up again for the season that just passed and the season yet to come. The remaining book value of our players as of June 30 2014 was 41.1 million. The value of players bought after June 30 must be added to that. Likely there will be additional impairment costs as well--in fact, if Ramirez and Osvaldo are sufficiently impaired they might be sold at a paper profit since the bulk of their cost will already be off the books. Of course, the paper profit does not change the reality of the real loss their purchase entailed. My point: we do not necessarily have lots of money to spend unless we sell some players for big money. That will change next season with the big new television contracts but all of our competitors will have more money too.

We are unlikely to face West Ham until the round of 16 because they will have the same coefficient as we do.