NewYorkSaint

We need to keep some perspective. There's a lot of luck in football. The play could have been 100% identical except Lallana's volley is 4 inches to the right and the handball penalty is called. Then we're all talking about a sometimes ugly but effective 2-1 win. Biggest single plus is that Adam Lallana is clearly back to his 100% best... He was our best player first half of last season, and he's showing it again. I'm shocked he was taken off. I don't think Gaston will play ahead of him again any time soon. What I would love to see happen is for MP to go back to the core of what made the team great last year. It was built around Lallana, Cork, Schneiderlin. Start with that engine and then figure out how to add to it. Anyway, I don't think it's likely there will be many afternoons ahead as frustrating as this one.

If you're looking for evidence this will be a great season, there was plenty to be had here. First and foremost... another big step up for JWP. Killer set piece delivery. And a lot more. Friends, we have ourselves another big star in the making. Second... Adam Lallana is back. He had an awesome game. Maybe Chambers somewhat to blame for the goal, but overall he is gold. Lovren and Wanyama continue to rock and roll. You know something big is happening when Morgan gets outshone. Ossie: some incredible touches and a real sense of how good a player he is... but wow, MP will have to find a way to cool him down. Rickie: mixed day. Quite a few botched passes, and free kicks, but also a couple of great headers, a blistering strike and some pleasing knock downs. I don't buy the anti JayRod comments. Yes, he lost the ball a few times... but his pace, turning, and ambition for the breakthrough play were all there. Overall, this was one of those days where we deserved to win and didn't. That's football. But I watched the game against Sunderland last season at St Mary's ...and there was no comparison. We're a vastly better team now. I'm sticking with top half prediction....

Some exciting moments. Luke showed a couple of fantastic bursts of pace. Lovren awesome. Chambers whipping the ball in beautifully. Wanyama passing sweetly. Getting very excited for the new season.

When you go player by player and compare this year with last, there's every reason to think we will do a lot better. Goalkeeper: last year we were at 6's and 7's half the season. This year... Boruc is proven. L and R backs: Shaw and Clyne can only have gained in experience and strength. Shaw only came in part way thru. And we now have great backup for Clyne in Chambers. Center backs: last year, a v inexperienced and nervy Jos and Jose. This year they're experienced - and still only make backup. Holding midfield: Schneiderlin and Cork. Awesome last year... this year shd only be better. They're both young and gained amazing experience last time round. And they're now aided and abetted by the thrilling prospect of Wanyama. Attacking midfield: Gaston, Adam, Punch, Davis. Slight concern about Adam. He started last season as team's best player and lost his way after the injury. Will be back 100%? Gaston wildcard but shd be better. Lots of options. Strikers: Rickie is key question. He's gained premiership experience. But also another year of age. JayRod came on by leaps and bounds and shd be primed for action. Then there's exciting prospects of Mayuka, Isgrove. And if none of this works: Guly. All in all, the overall quality and depth of the squad is massively better than last time. If Rickie and Adam show up we could be amazing, even without another purchase. Though it will depend on Poch finding the right combo. I could see us trying a super-flexible 451 with the killer midfield of cork, spider, wanyama, Punch and Adam (+ Davis/Gaston/Isgrove as amazing backup). Upfront Rickie or JayRod. I predict 8th place. Can't wait.

When you go player by player and compare this year with last, there's every reason to think we will do a lot better. Goalkeeper: last year we were at 6's and 7's half the season. This year... Boruc is proven. L and R backs: Shaw and Clyne can only have gained in experience and strength. Shaw only came in part way thru. And we now have great backup for Clyne in Chambers. Center backs: last year, a v inexperienced and nervy Jos and Jose. This year they're experienced - and still only make backup. Holding midfield: Schneiderlin and Cork. Awesome last year... this year shd only be better. They're both young and gained amazing experience last time round. And they're now aided and abetted by the thrilling prospect of Wanyama. Attacking midfield: Gaston, Adam, Punch, Davis. Slight concern about Adam. He started last season as team's best player and lost his way after the injury. Will be back 100%? Gaston wildcard but shd be better. Lots of options. Strikers: Rickie is key question. He's gained premiership experience. But also another year of age. JayRod came on by leaps and bounds and shd be primed for action. Then there's exciting prospects of Mayuka, Isgrove. And if none of this works: Guly. All in all, the overall quality and depth of the squad is massively better than last time. If Rickie and Adam show up we could be amazing, even without another purchase. Though it will depend on Poch finding the right combo. I could see us trying a super-flexible 451 with the killer midfield of cork, spider, wanyama, Punch and Adam (+ Davis/Gaston/Isgrove as amazing backup). Upfront Rickie or JayRod. I predict 8th place. Can't wait.

Excited by Wanyama. Won possession 3 or 4 times, then instant, accurate distribution.

Striped socks enough!

Double Punch!

Personally, want Wigan to win. We still have a chance at overhauling Swansea. Their final two fixtures are Man U away and Fulham at home. If they go LLD, we can take 'em. We're not going to be relegated. We're 6x more likely to finish 10th than 18th... --> http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy!

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...we are 7 x more likely to finish in top 10 then we are to being relegated. Even if we lose both games, there is only 10% chance we get relegated. Yes, it might conceivably happen. But overall chance is calculated here at 1.3% = 70 to 1. (Those 40 to 1 bookie odds are a rip-off!). It's natural to be nervous, but personally, I'll go with the numbers. We'll be fine. And a single point turns it into a 99% certainty.

MP so far has totally won the strategic battle.

According to this brilliant website: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...chances of relegation for Saints are 0.1%. 1000 to 1 would have been a fairer price. But if it stopped you worrying, I'm sure £10 well spent. The same site says we still have 1 in 11 chance of finishing top half of table. More interesting and uplifting bet for me!

Wow... West Brom really have our number. Pretty much our worst two results of the season. Sickening. Hopefully we learn from this.

ouch

Gaston looking good so far... Clyne and Davis having great games. Ain't over yet. I'd like to see Mayuka get 20 mins for Lambert.

Great link, The9, thanks for that. Same site gives us just 20% chance of top 10 finish currently, though a win this w/e will boost that significantly... We'll probably need 47 points - a min of 2 wins and 2 draws to get there.

Edit: West Brom too... but Ladbrokes have them at 9:1, longer shot than us, even though currently ahead. My times have changed.

Interestingly, you can still back Southampton at 7-1. Us and Swansea only teams with a realistic chance other than Man-U. Look for 'divisional handicap' under this link. http://is.gd/oOUUnQ And even if we come in third, that's staying that relative to expectation, Saints did 3rd best of any team. Not bad, friends, not bad.

Spectacular football. When is the world going to realise that there isn't a single top team that hasn't been given a hard time by Saints this season? Now... can we sustain the pressure? It'll be heart-breaking to lose this one.

There have been two competing descriptions of the past two months: 1) Saints flatter to deceive... all flash, no substance. 2) Saints playing glorious, fast-touch attacking football, and desperately unlucky not have more to show for it. On basis of today, it's that second story that's the correct one. We were AWESOME. Lallana and Rodriguez are going to strike terror into the heart of many a defense before the season is done...

The quality and pace of our passing game in that half was just sensational. Commentators claiming Liverpool not playing well. Like Man U. And Man City. This is not a coincidence. Our pressing game is blitzkrieg supreme. And how about Ramirez? He's coming good. Lallana back too. Just love it. Score shd be 3-0. Pleease don't blow this second half, saints. want 2 more goals!

Interesting that Hooiveld and Yoshida still favored over Fonte (and Forren). Great to see both Clyne and Shaw playing again. It's a strong team. But if no goals for us by 60th minute, we need Punch on! Fingers crossed this could be the day Ramirez truly shines.

We all underestimate the role of luck in football. If just one of the 15+ shots on goal goes in, we're 1-0 winners, and you can bet that the entire narrative of this thread would be completely different. It would then have been a spectacular away win against a strong side who we'd made look average. And yet everything about the game would have been exactly the same... EXCEPT for one microsecond adjustment or one slight rebound or, or, or... And every game is like that. The 'better' team, even the better team on the day, only wins maybe 60-70% of the time. That's because football games are often settled by a single goal. ...and in the circumstances that lead to any goal, there is ALWAYS an element of luck. Personally, I look at the overall quality of Saints play, the amount we dominate possession, and have done the past 10 games, and the long-term track-record of people like Ricky Lambert, and I feel pretty confident we'll make it. Yes, frustrating so many chances were missed... but brutal conditions, and taking the season overall, we are great goal scorers. There's no question we were the better overall team today. I don't think Norwich are going down. We're better than Norwich, even playing them away. We'll be OK. (Probably.)

We are so much the better side. Schneiderlin, Gaston, Lallana, Fonte, Lambert, Boruc... and SHAW... all had strong halves. Maya??!!! With Clyne on and fit, I think we'll win this.