NewYorkSaint

Don't forget the huge luck element in football. Even with our squad intact and playing well, it's highly likely that there will be a couple of games where we dominate possession and chances, but still lose. - ball hits woodwork instead of going in - refs give odd decisions - strange in-the-moment combinations lead to something unexpected against the run of play - etc, etc, etc. As with all the other chasing teams, we're highly likely to drop at least some points at home. Expect it, and it won't hurt so much when it happens! But what's clear is we have a real shot at glory. My prediction (guess): win 9, lose 3, draw 4 for 31 more points. 73 may just be enough.

One of the key strategic improvements this year has been management of energy during the match. Last year Poch had the team unleashing at blitzkrieg speed and effort from the kickoff. We terrified teams, won a ton of possession, and often scored early. But halfway through the second half we became really vulnerable. Lallana would have to be subbed, others were knackered, and we lost a ton of points from winning positions. This year our high-press game is more carefully tuned. We pick our moments, often led by Pelle, but it's not crazy-like-a-fox from the get go. As a result we tend to score later... but then hold on to victories. I wrote about this last year. That the high-press strategy, although exciting to watch, was not working out well. The Koemans have fixed this. Brilliantly.

Kudos, OP, for opening this thread. It is indeed incredibly lucky to have Katrina as owner. It's pretty much a perfect situation. She's let huge resources stay in the club... invested in a long-term strategy... kept her ego out of it... and stayed calm. A beautiful way to carry her father's legacy.

My interpretation of that interview is that there's been definite shift. 1) Some people have implied he's not 'all-in' in his commitment to each game. But it's clear from this he's absolutely set on being part of one of the great sports stories of recent years. 2) He's clearly holding open hope of staying at Southampton. If we qualify for CL, yes, there will be a negotiation, but my guess is he would prefer to stay and continue the amazing story. We'd have to boost earnings, but maybe not fully match incoming offers. Of course with our midfield depth, the club may decide it's better to take a £25m+ offer. But I love what Morgan has said here. I think his plan A would be to stay and have a CL run with Saints.

That's not a crazy scenario.

As we all sit there, jaws dropped, at how well this season is going, maybe time to put in a plug for Koeman's elder brother Erwin. The guy with the slightly less glittery career, who seems content to work out of the limelight but who, according to friends of mine in the Netherlands, is if anything an even greater tactician and man manager than Ronald. Whether or not they're right, having two great footballing minds on the case for every match we play is likely to be a big advantage. Think about that for a bit. Every time there's a dilemma or problem or strategy challenge, Ronald doesn't have to crack it alone. He can brainstorm it with the brother he trusts. I have a hunch that that is a huge huge edge for us. All the best ideas emerge out of people sparking off each other a little. That can only happen in an atmosphere of mutual trust and respect. For reasons of money, and probably more importantly the need to avoid dueling egos, most teams don't have an assistant coach with the type of skills and influence of Erwin. It's only the family dynamics of these two that make it possible. Erwin seems content to be the behind the scenes guy. But I bet, every so often, he'd like someone to acknowledge that he's a key piece of the magic that's happening right now at Southampton. If not, there just might be a risk that at some point he gets frustrated and wants to find his own club again. I realize the whole back-room team contribute in different ways, but I don't think we've heard enough, or appreciated enough, the unique role Erwin is playing. So I think we should, from time to time, offer a little Erwin-love. Anyone else agree? And does anyone have any insight on the respective roles the two brothers play?

I thought JWP looked strong today. But a lot will depend on how we use the bench today. Desperately need some kind of scoring threat. At the moment 0-0 would be a great result. Isgrove for Elia? I think Elia has great potential but maybe not 90 mins his first game.

The fact we're holding 4th place and have a real shot at Champions League changes the calculation here a little. I'd argue that even if that's still a long shot, it's way less of a long shot than getting to Wembley in the FA Cup. So I think we have an obligation to prioritise for the league at this point. Therefore I'd support OP's 11. Maybe even bring in Isgrove for Tadic. Still enough there to win. Probably. And if we get unlucky and go out, not the end of the world.

Thanks to that Chelsea result, Saints now back to best defensive record in premiership. 15 goals conceded vs 19 by Chelsea and City. Nice!

Incredible game. Probably should have been 5-2, with the last two goals coming against 10-man Saints. But anyone who saw both this and the game at the Emirates would conclude we're the better team. We didn't deserve to lose there. And here we deserved to win by more than 2 goals. Top 4 absolutely achievable. Maybe even top 3. We're as good or better than Man U based on our game with them. Sure I'd be more than happy with top 6, but it's good to dream. Victor Wanyama, Sadio Mane are world top 20 on their day.

That was seriously thrilling stuff. Seriously! Mane so spectacular. Our defensive shield is incredible. Need Forster to keep having a good game. Great opportunity for Reed to show what he's got once again. Fingers crossed for a Tadic/Pelle combo goal. They could both use the confidence boost.

Had a solid game. One fine goal-line clearance.

You're kidding, right...? Right??? The question is whether we can hold top 4. We're easily good enough for top 6. Mane coming through is huge. Wanyama strong cameo. Alderweireld rocks! And Tadic still to return. Chelsea game could be incredible.

So great to see Mane shining so bright. Confidence makes so much difference to a player like that. I suspect the constant snark he's had from some hasn't helped. His speed of touch and reaction is a joy to behold. Pelle, Forster, Toby, Yoshida and Clyne strong too. Didn't see much of Morgan. Davis seems to be struggling with the pitch. Or something. I think we'll pick it up further in second half. Would love to see Reed on for Davis. Hold Victor for Chelsea!

Mane!!!!!!!!! What a fantastic goal. This will be huge for him and us.

Mane's had good start!

The boys are playing well. Reed's had a terrific half. Has harried brilliantly... won the ball several times.. and put in a killer long ball early on. 3-5-2 looking good so far. Fonte having a cracking game. we're back to some confident fast passing. I'm liking it. I would so love to see pelle and long pick up a goal each second half.

I'm the sunniest of sunny optimists. I got nothing after this. Heartbroken.

Football !!! Owwwwwwwww!!!

Let the meltdown begin. After 2 pages of screaming, we can have a real discussion.

Hesketh the story so far. What an exciting prospect he is. I was worried he'd get crunched and sure enough. Feel bad for the lad. But exciting to know we have him up a-coming. Mane looked dangerous for us at times and some great play from Pelle. Great save Forster. Toby having a bit of a 'mare.

Excited by this team. Hesketh's cameo Monday was exciting. He seemed to have amazing touch + incredible speed. He's TINY. I hope he doesn't get sledge-hammered. Long as substituted option is great. I'm going for 0-2 saints. Mane to score and prove the haters wrong!

But that's the whole point. If your interest is in ranking every team in the premier league by overall ability and effectiveness (ie. the ranking they would have if they each got to play 100 games against each other) then the league table at any one point in time absolutely does lie. Think of the league table after 3 games for example. It might have Aston Villa in second place. Does that mean that at that moment in time Aston Villa are the second best team in the country? I think not. Everyone knows there is a ton of luck in football. But when it goes against you, people look for a non-iuck explanation and end up needlessly critical and bitter! It's a game. And we play it very well.

I'm amazed by the reaction to the Man U loss. I get the disappointment. But the game also revealed beyond a shadow of a doubt that we are actually a better team than Man U currently. Replay that game four more times and we would have won 3 and drawn 1. So that's a reason to be excited, isn't it? I watched the Arsenal game with Arsenal fans and they agreed it was an even game until we lost Toby. Bad luck usually evens out. Truth is, we had a couple of lucky wins earlier in the season. We were never the second best team in the league. But we have enough evidence now to know that we're a lot better than the 8th best team. We're genuinely, definitively better than last year, and, bar a truly dreadful run of injuries, the final table should show that. I'd say we would end higher than Man U, except they have a bunch of great players due to return. Every game has a huge roll-of-the-dice element to it. That's football. There's a chance we draw or lose at Burnley, but it's really unlikely. Davis had a brilliant game Monday, as did Wanyama. Tadic often looked back to his best. I was excited at the cameo played by Hesketh. He's going to be fabulous. Isgrove and Reed are there too at some point. We have more depth than people think. Even Mane is a couple of great finishes away from being a rediscovered hero here. If his dribble through had found an opening Monday it would have been a goal of the season. When confidence matters so much to a player, we should ease up on the zingers against him. He'll get there. Keep the faith, boys and girls.

Apart from the missed chance, he was strong on Weds. I lost count of the number of times he won - and controlled - possession from long balls from Forster or others. That right there is a hugely powerful weapon. Sometimes he goes for the killer flick a little too often, but when they come off ... like the ball to Davis that set up his chance on Weds ... they are beautiful to see. Everyone should relax and just cheer him on. He'll be scoring again v soon.