NewYorkSaint

Akachukwu, Scienza, Fellows, Archer stood out...

The new shirts better than I thought. I like the solid red panel on the back... much stronger identity than last year.

A lot of us are wrestling with an impossible mix of feelings. Fury at Tonda for shaming and ruining us. But also deep respect for his talent... and even, if we took a minute, some gratitude for what he achieved. ( I'm making the assumption that 95%+ of what he achieved did not depend on cheating.). Plus there's the fact that every other manager in past couple years hasn't worked. Until two weeks ago, he did. So... what if the following happened. Tonda came out with a statement that said. "I will be embarrassed about this the rest of my life. The practice is common in Germany. It's just part of scouting. But I was an idiot not to realize the rules and expectations are very different here. I of course have to offer my resignation to the club. And honestly, it kills me to do this. I've fallen in love with Southampton, and have the deepest respect for the players I've got to work with these past six months. I'd give anything to have one more crack at earning promotion, this time done only the right way. But given what I've done, I offer my resignation to the club and my deepest apologies to them, the players and most of all to you, the fanbase." And then suppose the club came back with. "Tonda, there's no question you've caused the club serious damage. And you're right to submit your resignation. We're pondering it, and before we make our final decision, we think we should seek the opinion of the players and of Saints fans. There's a saying out there that no one should ultimately be defined by the worst thing they ever did. It's just possible players and fans would be willing to give you another chance given your clear statement of intent. So, we're going to invite a week long discussion, and then put it to the vote. Two separate votes: players first, and then fans. If both still believe in you, we're going to ask you to withdraw your reservation, accept a 50% pay cut for the coming year, but stay on and be part of the essential rebuild we're undergoing." You may think this as unlikely situation, and it's of course possible an FA ban will intervene in any case. But just suppose. 1) Would you like to see this process happen and 2) if it did, which way would you likely vote? Anyone see any other way out which could make it feel OK to retain Tonda?

I think it's clear that a points deduction did not feel to the panel like enough of a sporting penalty because it didn't address the main issue that we ended up getting promoted. They felt that chucking us out was the only option: but forgot that they're imposing pretty much the highest penalty ever given a sporting team A much fairer option would have been to let the final go ahead but give Hull a 2-goal advantage. This then benefits Hull, rather than a club that was - by any independent view - fairly beaten. It could be accompanied by large fine, football bans, etc. I still think that if by some miracle we ended up reversing into this outcome, we could look forward to a sensational game, and hold our heads just a little higher. Whatever happens, the club could do itself a lot of favours by getting out a statement that shows a compelling combination of contrition and determination to put right.

For those of you who believe the betting markets offer a big clue, it's interesting tracking the betting on Polymarket. https://polymarket.com/event/efl-championship-team-promoted-to-epl Right now they have Southampton as 53% favorites to be promoted, Hull at 32% and Middlesborough at 16%. Which would only make sense if a) there was about a 30% of Saints being disqualified and b) both Saints and @$#boro are strong favorites to beat Hull. I don't like that 30% number....

But Claude is a little more hopeful. . My prediction I’d expect a guilty finding with a financial penalty and possibly a points deduction applied to next season — but no expulsion from the play-off final. Southampton most likely play Hull on May 23 as scheduled. My reasoning: expelling a club from a promotion final on the eve of the match is legally explosive and unprecedented — it would near-certainly trigger an appeal and possibly litigation from whichever side loses, creating exactly the chaos the EFL wants to avoid. Commissions tend to favour proportionality, and the Bielsa precedent (a fine, no sporting sanction) looms large even though the rule has since tightened. The “rogue intern” framing, if the commission accepts it, gives them room to punish the club without voiding the sporting result. The likeliest sanction is a significant fine plus a deferred points deduction. That said, this is genuinely uncertain — there’s no real precedent under the new rule, the evidence appears strong, and a commission that wanted to make an example could go further. Whatever happens, expect an appeal, and expect Middlesbrough to pursue separate legal action regardless of the verdict. The hearing is days away, so a definitive answer should land very soon. Want me to check back for the actual ruling once it’s announced?

without revealing which team I supported I invited latest ChatGPT model to thoroughly research spygate and make its predictions. Quite an impressive response. The “Spygate” controversy between Southampton F.C. and Middlesbrough F.C. has escalated from “slightly embarrassing football scandal” to “potential constitutional crisis for the EFL.” Here’s the clearest reconstruction of what seems to have happened — and then my prediction. What actually happened In the buildup to the Championship playoff semifinal, Middlesbrough alleged that a Southampton staff member secretly observed and recorded a closed training session at Rockliffe Park. Reports identify the individual as a Southampton analyst/intern named William Salt. Multiple outlets report Middlesbrough have CCTV, photos, witness testimony, and location/payment evidence placing him near the training ground. The EFL then formally charged Southampton with misconduct under rules introduced after the famous Marcelo Bielsa/Leeds “Spygate” scandal in 2019. Those rules specifically prohibit observing an opponent’s training session within 72 hours of a match. This is not just tabloid smoke. The EFL has: formally charged Southampton, accelerated disciplinary proceedings, acknowledged that expulsion from the playoffs is theoretically possible, and scheduled a hearing before the playoff final. Meanwhile: Southampton beat Middlesbrough 2-1 on aggregate after extra time. Middlesbrough are demanding Southampton be expelled and replaced in the final. Hull City are stuck in limbo wondering who they’ll play at Wembley. The EFL looks like it swallowed a hornet’s nest. Why this is much more serious than Bielsa’s Leeds case The key issue is precedent. Back in 2019, Leeds United F.C. were fined £200k after Marcelo Bielsa openly admitted sending a staffer to observe Derby County F.C. training. But crucially: the EFL rules at the time were vaguer, Leeds were not accused of covert filming on private property, and the league had not yet created explicit anti-spying language. This case lands after the rules were tightened specifically to stop this exact behavior. That matters enormously. If the EFL now hands Southampton only a fine, the league basically announces: “Yes, the rule exists, but no, we won’t actually protect sporting integrity when promotion money is at stake.” And the money is gigantic. Promotion to the Premier League is routinely valued at over £200m in future revenue. Middlesbrough’s argument is that a fine would be meaningless compared with the reward. That logic is pretty compelling. The evidence problem for Southampton Southampton’s public posture has been revealing. They have not aggressively denied the spying occurred. Instead, they’ve: asked for more time, launched an “internal review,” emphasized cooperation, and seemingly floated the idea that this may have been a rogue employee acting independently. That is not the behavior of a club confident the allegation is fabricated. If they had hard exculpatory evidence (“wrong person,” “public land,” “not recording,” etc.), you would likely already hear it loudly. Instead, the fight appears to be over: who authorized it, how systematic it was, and what sanction is proportionate. There are also reports that other Championship clubs suspect similar spying incidents. Some of that may be hysteria. But if corroborated, Southampton’s position gets dramatically worse. The EFL’s real dilemma The EFL now has three terrible options. Option 1: Fine Southampton only This is the easiest operationally. Problem: Middlesbrough likely sues. The EFL looks spineless. The anti-spying rule becomes effectively decorative. I think this outcome is politically difficult now because the EFL itself escalated the matter by charging the club quickly and publicly emphasizing possible sporting sanctions. Option 2: Points deduction There are reports a six-point deduction is under consideration. But this creates a bizarre procedural problem: The playoff semifinal is already over. A points deduction doesn’t cleanly map onto knockout football. It feels legally messy and competitively incoherent. Option 3: Expel Southampton / award tie to Middlesbrough This is the nuclear option. And despite sounding sensationalist, it is now very clearly on the table. The cleanest mechanism would be: Southampton forfeit the first leg, Middlesbrough receive a default win, aggregate flips, Middlesbrough go to Wembley. That would preserve the idea that sporting advantage obtained improperly invalidates results. But this creates its own chaos: Southampton would almost certainly appeal. Fans who bought travel and tickets get wrecked. Hull City’s preparation is distorted. The EFL risks weeks of litigation. So the league is balancing: sporting integrity vs institutional stability. Classic football governance problem: Everybody wants principles until the ticketing department gets involved. My prediction I think Southampton will be found guilty. I’d put that above 80%. The combination of: the EFL charge, Southampton’s cautious language, the specificity of reported evidence, and the urgency of proceedings strongly suggests there is substantial proof something improper occurred. The harder question is sanction. My actual prediction: I do not think Southampton will ultimately be expelled from the playoff final. I think the EFL and disciplinary commission will land on: a severe financial penalty, future sporting sanctions, suspensions for individuals, possibly a points deduction next season, and strong language condemning the conduct. Why? Because expelling Southampton now would create: immediate legal warfare, operational chaos, television/scheduling disaster, potential injunctions before Wembley, and huge reputational risk for the EFL itself. Institutions almost always choose “contained embarrassment” over “systemic detonation.” That said, I think Middlesbrough have a morally stronger argument than many people realize. If the commission genuinely believes Southampton gained a competitive advantage from prohibited spying, then logically the sporting result should be tainted. Otherwise the rule is basically theater. So my split forecast would be: Outcome Probability Southampton guilty + heavy non-expulsion sanctions 55% Southampton expelled from playoffs 30% Southampton cleared or lightly punished 15% The fascinating thing is that this may become a watershed case in English football governance. The Bielsa incident was treated as quirky genius theater. This one feels different because: the rules are now explicit, the financial stakes are massive, and modern sports governance is much more willing to impose integrity-based sanctions. Football has entered the era where “everyone does it” is no longer an adequate defense.

I'm puzzled why so many here are assuming this is only about the Boro incident. If that were all it was, there would be nothing like this drama. The £100m question is whether we've been doing something similar ever since Eckert took over. If they have a witness who can credibly say that we have, we're in much deeper trouble. And to me it's highly unlikely this was a one-off. So yeah, it's super-annoying how aggressive Boro have been... but the harder-but-truer point is that we've brought this on our own heads. The thought of three more days of uncertainty is horrible.

Some thoughts. It's likely this wasn't just one incident. Could be 10 or more. If we really gained advantage in each case we would not have reached playoffs. In which case the real loser is Wrexham not Boro. But it's impossible to know if we gained advantage. The Boro games gave no evidence of this. And it creates innumerable new problems to delay or cancel the final. To cancel the feeling of unfairness, why not give saints a deficit of one or poss 2 goals going in. Plus a fine. If I was offered this now I'd take it. It would actually add to the excitement of the final. We'd suddenly have a bunch of neutrals rooting for us. And it would feel like the result of the game either way would offer closure. Anything to this? Haven't seen it suggested anywhere.

What is everyone making of the fact that ticket info for the final was deleted from Saints' website. Is there any explanation other than that the investigation has told Saints to hold off, implying a) that a ban may be on the table and b) that they intend a quick hearing prior to the final?

I agree w this take. Those of us talking ourselves into believing this is just a small issue are in danger of a shock moment when the facts come out. It's pretty obvious this was sanctioned by someone on Tonda's team, perhaps even initiated by him. Which implies it was used in other games. I think there needs at some point to be a giant apology + pledge to sanction those who did this. (If it's Tonda, I personally wouldn't want him to be fired... but I would want him to eat a giant slice of humble pie. "My passion for this club, and my background in a different footballing culture led me astray. I screwed up. It won't happen again." For everyone's logistics, the enquiry should give a short deadline... say Friday... and give a ruling by the weekend. I agree that banning us from the playoffs is prob a disproportionate penalty. I would gladly settle for a 10-pt deduction next time we're in the championship.v But I would be so much happier to have this behind us by the time Wembley comes.

I feel like there's a lot hanging on not just winning, but HOW we win. If it's a lucky 2-1, or goes to penalties, will make it much more tempting for the league to knock us out. If we run over them 4-1, it's v different. I know it prob shouldnt' make a difference, but I suspect it will. So.... CMON SAINTS. Manning, Matsuki and Azaz pls make our night!

IF, and it's a huge if, we end up getting promoted with another epic day out at Wembley, we'll actually be glad this game ended this way. That playoff final is a bigger experience than anything the top two will get. According to the bookies we have just under a 40% chance. Four big games await, friends.

If the legs are there, and there's no crazy bad luck running in the universe today, that team will crush them.

It's so weird to have the heartbreak of a loss down to two impossibly unlikely goals... and yet feel so much pride in this team. We truly showed the world this: we deserve to be in the Premier League....