NewYorkSaint

/How crazy/disgraceful is it that the FA still have made no announcement?! Like... seriously. If you ever wanted to convey the impression you're a bunch of lazy bureaucrats relishing the display of power for power's sake, then mission accomplished.

I'm so looking forward to the game with the stress dialed down. Let's say... 2 unanswered goals in the first half. No reply. In the 70th minute we get a third. Clean sheet. That kind of game.

Look, on any other day, only one of the two first half mistakes gets punished, and THB scores that sitter. It's way too early to have an overall negative narrative about the team. Let's say we just needed to set ourselves a slightly harder challenge for the season.

Heartbreaker.

Some thoughts.... 1) It's too early to panic. We made two mistakes and were punished ruthlessly twice. Neither the mistakes nor that level of ruthless punishment are likely to repeat. 2) Football needs to do something to prevent the intentional physical targeting of a player. When it's clear that two players are willing to commit yellow card offenses against the same player... why isn't that the equivalent to a single player getting two yellow cards. Hearing Joe Tessem say "yeah, that's football" made me a little sick. We can't have the playbook to beat Saints being 'hack down their best player'. 3) Everything hangs on the next goal. I've thought Dobbin and Larin look like a strong combo in the buildup play. There's a goal coming. We may need to use the bench wisely. A draw is going to feel like a win. I'm going 3-3. But this second half will show what character we have....

and that time a truly beautiful ping ping ping BOOM. huzzah! now bring on the season.

ping ping ping BOOM!

second half looking a little better. a little bit of ping ping ping... just no ping ping ping boom.

Logged in to see if anyone here had a written a positive comment about anything. And.... not so much.

Akachukwu, Scienza, Fellows, Archer stood out...

The new shirts better than I thought. I like the solid red panel on the back... much stronger identity than last year.

A lot of us are wrestling with an impossible mix of feelings. Fury at Tonda for shaming and ruining us. But also deep respect for his talent... and even, if we took a minute, some gratitude for what he achieved. ( I'm making the assumption that 95%+ of what he achieved did not depend on cheating.). Plus there's the fact that every other manager in past couple years hasn't worked. Until two weeks ago, he did. So... what if the following happened. Tonda came out with a statement that said. "I will be embarrassed about this the rest of my life. The practice is common in Germany. It's just part of scouting. But I was an idiot not to realize the rules and expectations are very different here. I of course have to offer my resignation to the club. And honestly, it kills me to do this. I've fallen in love with Southampton, and have the deepest respect for the players I've got to work with these past six months. I'd give anything to have one more crack at earning promotion, this time done only the right way. But given what I've done, I offer my resignation to the club and my deepest apologies to them, the players and most of all to you, the fanbase." And then suppose the club came back with. "Tonda, there's no question you've caused the club serious damage. And you're right to submit your resignation. We're pondering it, and before we make our final decision, we think we should seek the opinion of the players and of Saints fans. There's a saying out there that no one should ultimately be defined by the worst thing they ever did. It's just possible players and fans would be willing to give you another chance given your clear statement of intent. So, we're going to invite a week long discussion, and then put it to the vote. Two separate votes: players first, and then fans. If both still believe in you, we're going to ask you to withdraw your reservation, accept a 50% pay cut for the coming year, but stay on and be part of the essential rebuild we're undergoing." You may think this as unlikely situation, and it's of course possible an FA ban will intervene in any case. But just suppose. 1) Would you like to see this process happen and 2) if it did, which way would you likely vote? Anyone see any other way out which could make it feel OK to retain Tonda?

I think it's clear that a points deduction did not feel to the panel like enough of a sporting penalty because it didn't address the main issue that we ended up getting promoted. They felt that chucking us out was the only option: but forgot that they're imposing pretty much the highest penalty ever given a sporting team A much fairer option would have been to let the final go ahead but give Hull a 2-goal advantage. This then benefits Hull, rather than a club that was - by any independent view - fairly beaten. It could be accompanied by large fine, football bans, etc. I still think that if by some miracle we ended up reversing into this outcome, we could look forward to a sensational game, and hold our heads just a little higher. Whatever happens, the club could do itself a lot of favours by getting out a statement that shows a compelling combination of contrition and determination to put right.

For those of you who believe the betting markets offer a big clue, it's interesting tracking the betting on Polymarket. https://polymarket.com/event/efl-championship-team-promoted-to-epl Right now they have Southampton as 53% favorites to be promoted, Hull at 32% and Middlesborough at 16%. Which would only make sense if a) there was about a 30% of Saints being disqualified and b) both Saints and @$#boro are strong favorites to beat Hull. I don't like that 30% number....

But Claude is a little more hopeful. . My prediction I’d expect a guilty finding with a financial penalty and possibly a points deduction applied to next season — but no expulsion from the play-off final. Southampton most likely play Hull on May 23 as scheduled. My reasoning: expelling a club from a promotion final on the eve of the match is legally explosive and unprecedented — it would near-certainly trigger an appeal and possibly litigation from whichever side loses, creating exactly the chaos the EFL wants to avoid. Commissions tend to favour proportionality, and the Bielsa precedent (a fine, no sporting sanction) looms large even though the rule has since tightened. The “rogue intern” framing, if the commission accepts it, gives them room to punish the club without voiding the sporting result. The likeliest sanction is a significant fine plus a deferred points deduction. That said, this is genuinely uncertain — there’s no real precedent under the new rule, the evidence appears strong, and a commission that wanted to make an example could go further. Whatever happens, expect an appeal, and expect Middlesbrough to pursue separate legal action regardless of the verdict. The hearing is days away, so a definitive answer should land very soon. Want me to check back for the actual ruling once it’s announced?