NewYorkSaint

For those of you who believe the betting markets offer a big clue, it's interesting tracking the betting on Polymarket. https://polymarket.com/event/efl-championship-team-promoted-to-epl Right now they have Southampton as 53% favorites to be promoted, Hull at 32% and Middlesborough at 16%. Which would only make sense if a) there was about a 30% of Saints being disqualified and b) both Saints and @$#boro are strong favorites to beat Hull. I don't like that 30% number....

But Claude is a little more hopeful. . My prediction I’d expect a guilty finding with a financial penalty and possibly a points deduction applied to next season — but no expulsion from the play-off final. Southampton most likely play Hull on May 23 as scheduled. My reasoning: expelling a club from a promotion final on the eve of the match is legally explosive and unprecedented — it would near-certainly trigger an appeal and possibly litigation from whichever side loses, creating exactly the chaos the EFL wants to avoid. Commissions tend to favour proportionality, and the Bielsa precedent (a fine, no sporting sanction) looms large even though the rule has since tightened. The “rogue intern” framing, if the commission accepts it, gives them room to punish the club without voiding the sporting result. The likeliest sanction is a significant fine plus a deferred points deduction. That said, this is genuinely uncertain — there’s no real precedent under the new rule, the evidence appears strong, and a commission that wanted to make an example could go further. Whatever happens, expect an appeal, and expect Middlesbrough to pursue separate legal action regardless of the verdict. The hearing is days away, so a definitive answer should land very soon. Want me to check back for the actual ruling once it’s announced?

without revealing which team I supported I invited latest ChatGPT model to thoroughly research spygate and make its predictions. Quite an impressive response. The “Spygate” controversy between Southampton F.C. and Middlesbrough F.C. has escalated from “slightly embarrassing football scandal” to “potential constitutional crisis for the EFL.” Here’s the clearest reconstruction of what seems to have happened — and then my prediction. What actually happened In the buildup to the Championship playoff semifinal, Middlesbrough alleged that a Southampton staff member secretly observed and recorded a closed training session at Rockliffe Park. Reports identify the individual as a Southampton analyst/intern named William Salt. Multiple outlets report Middlesbrough have CCTV, photos, witness testimony, and location/payment evidence placing him near the training ground. The EFL then formally charged Southampton with misconduct under rules introduced after the famous Marcelo Bielsa/Leeds “Spygate” scandal in 2019. Those rules specifically prohibit observing an opponent’s training session within 72 hours of a match. This is not just tabloid smoke. The EFL has: formally charged Southampton, accelerated disciplinary proceedings, acknowledged that expulsion from the playoffs is theoretically possible, and scheduled a hearing before the playoff final. Meanwhile: Southampton beat Middlesbrough 2-1 on aggregate after extra time. Middlesbrough are demanding Southampton be expelled and replaced in the final. Hull City are stuck in limbo wondering who they’ll play at Wembley. The EFL looks like it swallowed a hornet’s nest. Why this is much more serious than Bielsa’s Leeds case The key issue is precedent. Back in 2019, Leeds United F.C. were fined £200k after Marcelo Bielsa openly admitted sending a staffer to observe Derby County F.C. training. But crucially: the EFL rules at the time were vaguer, Leeds were not accused of covert filming on private property, and the league had not yet created explicit anti-spying language. This case lands after the rules were tightened specifically to stop this exact behavior. That matters enormously. If the EFL now hands Southampton only a fine, the league basically announces: “Yes, the rule exists, but no, we won’t actually protect sporting integrity when promotion money is at stake.” And the money is gigantic. Promotion to the Premier League is routinely valued at over £200m in future revenue. Middlesbrough’s argument is that a fine would be meaningless compared with the reward. That logic is pretty compelling. The evidence problem for Southampton Southampton’s public posture has been revealing. They have not aggressively denied the spying occurred. Instead, they’ve: asked for more time, launched an “internal review,” emphasized cooperation, and seemingly floated the idea that this may have been a rogue employee acting independently. That is not the behavior of a club confident the allegation is fabricated. If they had hard exculpatory evidence (“wrong person,” “public land,” “not recording,” etc.), you would likely already hear it loudly. Instead, the fight appears to be over: who authorized it, how systematic it was, and what sanction is proportionate. There are also reports that other Championship clubs suspect similar spying incidents. Some of that may be hysteria. But if corroborated, Southampton’s position gets dramatically worse. The EFL’s real dilemma The EFL now has three terrible options. Option 1: Fine Southampton only This is the easiest operationally. Problem: Middlesbrough likely sues. The EFL looks spineless. The anti-spying rule becomes effectively decorative. I think this outcome is politically difficult now because the EFL itself escalated the matter by charging the club quickly and publicly emphasizing possible sporting sanctions. Option 2: Points deduction There are reports a six-point deduction is under consideration. But this creates a bizarre procedural problem: The playoff semifinal is already over. A points deduction doesn’t cleanly map onto knockout football. It feels legally messy and competitively incoherent. Option 3: Expel Southampton / award tie to Middlesbrough This is the nuclear option. And despite sounding sensationalist, it is now very clearly on the table. The cleanest mechanism would be: Southampton forfeit the first leg, Middlesbrough receive a default win, aggregate flips, Middlesbrough go to Wembley. That would preserve the idea that sporting advantage obtained improperly invalidates results. But this creates its own chaos: Southampton would almost certainly appeal. Fans who bought travel and tickets get wrecked. Hull City’s preparation is distorted. The EFL risks weeks of litigation. So the league is balancing: sporting integrity vs institutional stability. Classic football governance problem: Everybody wants principles until the ticketing department gets involved. My prediction I think Southampton will be found guilty. I’d put that above 80%. The combination of: the EFL charge, Southampton’s cautious language, the specificity of reported evidence, and the urgency of proceedings strongly suggests there is substantial proof something improper occurred. The harder question is sanction. My actual prediction: I do not think Southampton will ultimately be expelled from the playoff final. I think the EFL and disciplinary commission will land on: a severe financial penalty, future sporting sanctions, suspensions for individuals, possibly a points deduction next season, and strong language condemning the conduct. Why? Because expelling Southampton now would create: immediate legal warfare, operational chaos, television/scheduling disaster, potential injunctions before Wembley, and huge reputational risk for the EFL itself. Institutions almost always choose “contained embarrassment” over “systemic detonation.” That said, I think Middlesbrough have a morally stronger argument than many people realize. If the commission genuinely believes Southampton gained a competitive advantage from prohibited spying, then logically the sporting result should be tainted. Otherwise the rule is basically theater. So my split forecast would be: Outcome Probability Southampton guilty + heavy non-expulsion sanctions 55% Southampton expelled from playoffs 30% Southampton cleared or lightly punished 15% The fascinating thing is that this may become a watershed case in English football governance. The Bielsa incident was treated as quirky genius theater. This one feels different because: the rules are now explicit, the financial stakes are massive, and modern sports governance is much more willing to impose integrity-based sanctions. Football has entered the era where “everyone does it” is no longer an adequate defense.

I'm puzzled why so many here are assuming this is only about the Boro incident. If that were all it was, there would be nothing like this drama. The £100m question is whether we've been doing something similar ever since Eckert took over. If they have a witness who can credibly say that we have, we're in much deeper trouble. And to me it's highly unlikely this was a one-off. So yeah, it's super-annoying how aggressive Boro have been... but the harder-but-truer point is that we've brought this on our own heads. The thought of three more days of uncertainty is horrible.

Some thoughts. It's likely this wasn't just one incident. Could be 10 or more. If we really gained advantage in each case we would not have reached playoffs. In which case the real loser is Wrexham not Boro. But it's impossible to know if we gained advantage. The Boro games gave no evidence of this. And it creates innumerable new problems to delay or cancel the final. To cancel the feeling of unfairness, why not give saints a deficit of one or poss 2 goals going in. Plus a fine. If I was offered this now I'd take it. It would actually add to the excitement of the final. We'd suddenly have a bunch of neutrals rooting for us. And it would feel like the result of the game either way would offer closure. Anything to this? Haven't seen it suggested anywhere.

What is everyone making of the fact that ticket info for the final was deleted from Saints' website. Is there any explanation other than that the investigation has told Saints to hold off, implying a) that a ban may be on the table and b) that they intend a quick hearing prior to the final?

I agree w this take. Those of us talking ourselves into believing this is just a small issue are in danger of a shock moment when the facts come out. It's pretty obvious this was sanctioned by someone on Tonda's team, perhaps even initiated by him. Which implies it was used in other games. I think there needs at some point to be a giant apology + pledge to sanction those who did this. (If it's Tonda, I personally wouldn't want him to be fired... but I would want him to eat a giant slice of humble pie. "My passion for this club, and my background in a different footballing culture led me astray. I screwed up. It won't happen again." For everyone's logistics, the enquiry should give a short deadline... say Friday... and give a ruling by the weekend. I agree that banning us from the playoffs is prob a disproportionate penalty. I would gladly settle for a 10-pt deduction next time we're in the championship.v But I would be so much happier to have this behind us by the time Wembley comes.

I feel like there's a lot hanging on not just winning, but HOW we win. If it's a lucky 2-1, or goes to penalties, will make it much more tempting for the league to knock us out. If we run over them 4-1, it's v different. I know it prob shouldnt' make a difference, but I suspect it will. So.... CMON SAINTS. Manning, Matsuki and Azaz pls make our night!

IF, and it's a huge if, we end up getting promoted with another epic day out at Wembley, we'll actually be glad this game ended this way. That playoff final is a bigger experience than anything the top two will get. According to the bookies we have just under a 40% chance. Four big games await, friends.

If the legs are there, and there's no crazy bad luck running in the universe today, that team will crush them.

It's so weird to have the heartbreak of a loss down to two impossibly unlikely goals... and yet feel so much pride in this team. We truly showed the world this: we deserve to be in the Premier League....

I asked my friend Claude, and looks like she agrees with the majority opinion here... Nonetheless I predict that if they pull off promotion, and/or an FA cup win, the tide of opinion will change quite rapidly... No one should be judged solely by their worst mistakes -- unless they never learn from them. Over to Claude... Sport Republic: A Performance Assessment Background: Sport Republic is a British sports investment firm founded by Rasmus Ankersen and Henrik Kraft, financed by lead investor Dragan Šolak. Wikipedia Ankersen was previously instrumental at Brentford, serving as Co-Director of Football from 2015–2021 and overseeing their promotion to the Premier League for the first time in 74 years. Southampton Football Club The pitch was compelling: apply Brentford's data-driven, value-finding model across a multi-club portfolio. The Portfolio — Club by Club Southampton (acquired January 2022, 80% stake): This is the flagship and where the verdict is harshest. Their first full season of ownership ended in relegation from the Premier League in May 2023. Wikipedia They bounced back through the Championship playoffs in 2024, but were effectively relegated from the Premier League for the second time under Sport Republic on 6 April 2025 with seven games remaining, becoming the earliest team to suffer relegation in Premier League history. Wikipedia Now back in the Championship for 2025–26, they currently sit 6th, in the playoff places, with 17 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses from 39 games. FootyStats But even that has been turbulent — Will Still was appointed as manager before the season, then sacked after sixteen games with a 25% win ratio, after which Tonda Eckert, the U21 coach, was appointed as head coach. Wikipedia The managerial churn has been extraordinary. Since Sport Republic took over, Southampton have gone through Hasenhüttl, Nathan Jones, Rubén Sellés, Russell Martin, Ivan Jurić, Will Still, and now Eckert — seven managers in roughly three and a half years. According to fan analysis, Southampton's Premier League record under Sport Republic stands at: Played 77, Won 12, Drawn 14, Lost 51. Medium That is a catastrophic win rate of roughly 16%. Total spending has exceeded £241 million in recent seasons Medium, making the return on investment truly dire. Göztepe (acquired August 2022, 70% stake): This is actually the bright spot. The club were promoted to the Süper Lig at the end of the 2023–24 season and finished eighth in 2024–25. Wikipedia This season they're doing even better — Göztepe currently sits in fifth place with 46 points from 27 matches, having conceded only 20 goals, matching Galatasaray as the least scored-against teams in the league. Fakta For a newly promoted club, that's a genuinely impressive trajectory. Valenciennes (acquired July 2023): A disaster. The club were relegated to the Championnat National (French third tier) at the end of the 2023–24 season Wikipedia, just one season after Sport Republic took control. Key Criticisms Managerial decision-making is the most damning indictment. The problem hasn't been that they've been making changes; the problem is the way in which these changes have been made. Football365 The Nathan Jones appointment was widely panned from day one — bringing in a direct, aggressive coach to manage a squad built for possession football. They repeated the same error with Ivan Jurić, who also plays fundamentally different football from what the squad was assembled for. Medium The gap between philosophy and execution is stark. They talk about data, analytics, and the "Brentford model," but data is usually only as good as the people using it, and in a modern football club that requires all parts of the operation to be functioning as they should. Football365 Brentford succeeded because the entire operation was aligned. At Southampton, there have been constant internal tensions and high staff turnover. Fan relationship has broken down almost completely. According to fan pundits, the relationship between the owners and the fans is "totally broken," with supporters having "no faith" in the ownership to make the right decisions. FootballLeagueWorld What They've Done Right To be fair, a few things deserve acknowledgment. Financially, Southampton have been reset rather than dismantled — no dividends were extracted, the wage bill was responsibly cut after relegation, and infrastructure investment has continued at St Mary's. Saints Marching They've invested over £200 million into the club. GRV Media The money has been there — it has just been poorly deployed. And as noted, Göztepe's rise from the Turkish second tier to a top-five Süper Lig position is a legitimate success story. Grading Relative to Other Ambitious Multi-Club Owners I'd place Sport Republic in the D+ to C- range — toward the bottom of the "ambitious but underperforming" tier. Here's how I'd frame the spectrum: The gold standard (A/A+): City Football Group (Manchester City), who built a global empire with sustained on-pitch dominance. Red Bull's network (Salzburg/Leipzig) is another model of coherent, aligned execution. Solid performers (B/B+): Brighton's Tony Bloom, who mirrors what Ankersen says he wants to do — data-driven recruitment, clear identity, patience — but actually executes it. Atalanta's ownership model in Serie A is similar. Mixed bags (C+/B-): 777 Partners (before their collapse), Pozzo family (Watford/Udinese/Granada) — flashes of success mixed with instability and relegations. INEOS at Nice/Manchester United are still early in their story. Where Sport Republic sits (D+/C-): They have ambition, investment capital, and a credible theoretical framework. But the execution has been poor to dismal at the flagship club. Two Premier League relegations in three years, with record-early relegation the second time, is almost unprecedented for an ownership group that was actively spending. The Göztepe success prevents them from being a complete failure, and the financial stewardship has been responsible rather than extractive. But the core promise — applying Brentford-style intelligence to a bigger platform — has simply not materialized at Southampton. Below them (D/F): Truly destructive owners like the Oystons at Blackpool, Hicks & Gillett at Liverpool, or recent examples like Reading's Dai Yongge where clubs face existential financial threats. The fundamental problem is that Sport Republic tried to replicate the Brentford model without recognizing that Brentford's success depended on patience, alignment, and cultural buy-in across the entire organization — not just clever data. At Southampton, they've lurched from one approach to another, undermining their own signings with incompatible managerial appointments, and have burned through goodwill at an alarming rate. The question now is whether the current Championship campaign — and the promising FA Cup run — represents a genuine turning point or merely another cycle of brief optimism before the next collapse.

No doubt they've deserved a lot of the hostility expressed by the fanbase these past couple years. They took some big risks - for example gambling on untested young managers who offered analytically smart strategies, and pushing a multi-club strategy that would have been cool if it had worked, but... it didn't. Not to mention a kind of panicked recklessness in some of the player purchases, resulting in a bloated, unmanageable squad. And yet, I wonder if history will judge them a little differently. It's not like they've learned nothing from their mistakes. The appointment of Johannes Spors looks inspired at this point. The squad has trimmed and supplemented with genuinely spectacular talent (Scienza, Azaz, Peretz), and that strategy of backing untested, but super-smart young managers? Well, that too is looking pretty different now. They never pulled the purse strings tight shut. They've always retained their belief in Southampton's potential... and if things transpire the way they might in the rest of this season, that faith could finally get rewarded with a longer return to the big leagues. So far all the plaudits for the current amazingness are going to Eckert and the players... But SR undoubtedly contributed. Anyone willing to join me in giving them a tentative thumbs up?

Can I say it now?

Also, can I just say, I love Larin. Would love to see him part of the club for a long time....