Saint Paul C

This paper is worth a read - if slightly long and heavy on the technicalities of modelling techniques Records from the GISP2 Greenland ice core are considered in terms of dynamical systems theory and nonlinear prediction. Dynamical systems theory allows us to reconstruct some properties of a phenomenon based only on past behavior without any mechanistic assumptions or deterministic models. A short-term prediction of temperature, including a mean estimate and confidence interval, is made for 800 years into the future. The prediction suggests that the present short-time global warming trend will continue for at least 200 years and be followed by a reverse in the temperature trend. http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Conferences/IAMG//Sessions/N/Papers/kotov.pdf

Hey, I've not made an assertion on the "accuracy etc.. " of the published article only to post on here for consideration. I find all of this debate really interesting. As a left leaning, POM living in Aus, working in the Coal Seam Gas industry and with a strong understanding of Statistics, Analytics, forecasting and the application of these and seeing some of the utter rubbish posted on both sides here is amusing. I'm a firm believer in responsible consumption, the application of technology to reduce our environmental impact and that climate change is a constant we cannot control - no matter how much tax you ask people to pay.

A newly-uncovered and monumental calculating error in official US government climate data shows beyond doubt that climate scientists unjustifiably added on a whopping one degree of phantom warming to the official "raw" temperature record. Skeptics believe the discovery may trigger the biggest of all 'climate con' scandals in Congress and sound the death knell on American climate policy. Independent data analyst, Steven Goddard, released (January 19, 2014) his telling study of the officially adjusted and homogenized US temperature records relied upon by NASA, NOAA, USHCN and scientists around the world to 'prove' our climate has been warming dangerously. Goddard reports "I spent the evening comparing graphs…and hit the NOAA motherlode." His diligent research exposed the real reason why there is a startling disparity between the 'raw' thermometer readings, as reported by measuring stations, and the 'adjusted' temperatures, those that appear in official charts and government reports. In effect, the adjustments to the 'raw' thermometer measurements made by the climate scientists "turns a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend" says the astonished Goddard. Goddard's plain-as-day evidence not only proves the officially-claimed one-degree increase in temperatures is entirely fictitious, it also discredits the reliability of any assertion by such agencies to possess a reliable and robust temperature record.

+1.

This made me chuckle

A pioneering climate scientist with decades at Harvard and MIT, Lindzen sees his discipline as being deeply compromised by political pressure, data fudging, out-and-out guesswork, and wholly unwarranted alarmism. In a shot across the bow of what many insist is indisputable scientific truth, Lindzen characterizes global warming as “small and ... nothing to be alarmed about.” In the climate debate — on which hinges far-reaching questions of public policy what-catastrophe?

Same but different ------ Davis ----- Clyne - Fonte - Yoshi - Fox ----- Cork ------ JWP - Gaston - Davis - Reed --- Ossie -------

assuming we have a couple to come back from "injury" Gazza Clyne - Lovren - Fonte - Shaw --- Cork - Davis --- Lallana - Ramirez - Jrod SRL Also, we have to assume that ***ttenberg will award Everton a dodgy late 2nd half penalty so need to make sure we've got at least a couple before this certainty happens.

Living in Brissie and regularly traveling down to Sydney for work the are a huge number of flights between the 2 cities. Virgin, Qantas, Jetstar and Tiger all fly hourly between the 2 and booking flights is easy via http://www.webjet.com.au/ or http://www.skyscanner.com.au/. The price varies from day to day, and from flight to flight but you can usually get seats around the $100 mark (1-way), sometimes cheaper on Jetstar or Tiger. You wont save any money booking in the UK unless you bundle in with international flights. It's a whole days drive, approx 11hrs non-stop, and the roads on the northern NSW section around Byron - Yamba are none too flash. Nothing like the A34 - more akin to the A35 from Dorchester westwards at best with lots of 50KM/H zones heavily enforced by a zealous police force. Ping me if you want any more advice/help. Cheers, Paul.

Positives - likely to see some quality additions to the squad in the next couple of transfer windows. Negatives - who'll take on some of the "surplus to requirements" players we now have on the books? To navigate to a possible top 8 spot by the end of this season I think we'll need to 1. Buy a decent back-up for Boruc 2. Replace Yosh/Jos with another Lovren 3. Replace Gaston with a similar player who fits our style better 4. Pick JRod and Ossie as our preferred front 2 and use SRL as a super-sub until his form comes back

I'd like to see us play a more attacking style at home, especially in the more "winnable" games - just tweaking the current line-up by pushing the 2nd DM into a more traditional CM role but reverting to type when needed if under pressure from the opposition by moving Davis into the DM role and JRod to (a)ML -------- Gazza -------- Clyne - Fonte - Lovren - Shaw -------- Big Vic ------- - JWP - Lallana - Davis - ---- SRL ------------ --------- JRod -------

A new study suggests that the ban on ozone depleting chemicals may have also impacted the rise in global temperatures. CFC gases were responsible for a massive hole in the ozone layer but they also had a powerful greenhouse effect. The authors link a ban on their use to a "pause" or slowdown in temperature increases since the mid 1990s. The research is published in the journal Nature Geoscience. The subject of a hiatus or standstill in global temperatures rises since 1998 has been the subject of intense debate among scientists, and it has been used as a key argument by some to show that the impacts of global warming have been exaggerated. "Our analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s," the authors write. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24874060

Keep the momentum going and play a strong team who'll have a couple missing due to red cards on Saturday -------- Boruc -------- Clyne - Fonte - Lovren - Shaw ---- Cork -- Big Vic ----- Lallana - Davis - J-Rod ---- SRL -----

I fully expect Stoke to try and kick lumps out of us in the first 30 mins. Wouldn't be suprised to see Luke or JWP go off injured within the first 20. I'd be more than happy to come away from that 5h!t hole with as few injuries as possible and a 1-0 win. COYS

I fully expect Stoke to try and kick lumps out of us in the first 30 mins. Wouldn't be suprised to see Luke or JWP go off injured within the first 20. I'd be more than happy to come away from that 5h!t hole with as few injuries as possible and a 1-0 win. COYS

According to this http://principia-scientific.org/latest-news/163-new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html NASA says CO2 cools the atmosphere. Que? Also worth a read http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/ipcc-in-denial-just-so-excuses-use-mystery-ocean-heat-to-hide-their-failure/ No settling of science from what I'm seeing.

That offer has pretty specific geo requirements but could probably be got around using Hola!

IPCC In Crisis As Climate Predictions Fail To those of us who have been following the climate debate for decades, the next few years will be electrifying. There is a high probability we will witness the crackup of one of the most influential scientific paradigms of the 20th century, and the implications for policy and global politics could be staggering. The IPCC graph shows that climate models predicted temperatures should have responded by rising somewhere between about 0.2 and 0.9 degrees C. But the actual temperature change was only about 0.1 degrees, and was within the margin of error for around zero. In other words, models significantly over-predicted the warming effect of CO2 emissions for the past 22 years. The IPCC must take everybody for fools. Its own graph shows that observed temperatures are not within the uncertainty range of projections; they have fallen below the bottom of the entire span. Something big is about to happen. Models predict one thing and the data show another. The various attempts in recent years to patch over the difference are disintegrating. Over the next few years, either there is going to be a sudden, rapid warming that shoots temperatures up to where the models say they should be, or the mainstream climate modeling paradigm is going to fall apart. Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, 17 September 2013 That climate models and predictions are out of sync with reality is not that much of a surprise. Many experts in climate and economic modeling have warned for years that the models are flawed and based in large part on self-fulfilling programs. The IPCC meetings at the end of the month are intended to install the science foundation for later meetings next year in Japan and Germany on adaptation and mitigation. The question then becomes: To what are we adapting and mitigating? Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, 17 September 2013 The recent pause in average global surface temperature rises made lifting confidence in the extent of the human contribution to climate change “incomprehensible”, a leading US climate scientist has said. Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology, yesterday published her analysis of a leaked IPCC draft report that has sparked an international furore. “If there are substantial changes in a conclusion in the AR5 (2013 report) relative to a confident conclusion in the AR4 (2007 report) then the confidence level should not increase and should probably drop, since the science clearly is not settled and is in a state of flux,” Professor Curry said. “Further, the projections of 21st century changes remain overconfident.” UN Hid Research Showing That Nature, not Humanity, Controls the Climate OTTAWA, Sept. 17, 2013 "As the science promoted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) falls into disrepute, reporters face a difficult decision," said Tom Harris, executive director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC). "Should they cover IPCC reports, the next of which will be issued on September 27th, as if there were no other reputable points of view? Or should they also seek out climate experts who disagree with the UN's view that we will soon face a human-induced climate crisis? "With today's release of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science (CCR-II - see http://climatechangereconsidered.org/, a 1,200 page report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), it is now much easier for media to adopt the second more balanced approach," continued Harris. "Co-authored and co-edited by Dr. Craig Idso, Professor Robert Carter, and Professor S. Fred Singer who worked with a team of 44 other climate experts, this document cites more than 1,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers to show that the IPCC has ignored or misinterpreted much of the research that challenges the need for carbon dioxide (CO2) controls. In other words, the NIPCC report demonstrates that the science being relied upon by governments to create multi-billion dollar policies is almost certainly wrong." Professor Carter, former head of the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook University, Australia, explained, "NIPCC's CCR-II report uses layman's language to present solid evidence that today's climate changes are well within the bounds of natural variability. Real world observations tell us that the IPCC's speculative computer models do not work, ice is not melting at an enhanced rate, sea-level rise is not accelerating, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is not increasing, and dangerous global warming is not occurring." CCR-II Lead Author for the extreme weather chapter, Dr. Madhav Khandekar, agrees, "When the earth was generally cooling between 1945 and 1977, there were as many extreme weather events as there are now, but climate scientists did not attribute this to human activity. The perceived link between global warming and extreme weather is primarily due to greater media attention on violent weather today than in past decades. Earth's climate is robust and is not being destabilized by human-added CO2." Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology and Geochemistry at the University of Oslo, Norway, Dr. Tom V. Segalstad, added, "CO2 is 'the gas of life'. The more CO2, the more life. More CO2 means we can feed more people on Earth. CO2 is contributing very little to the 'greenhouse effect'. Clouds have much more influence on temperature." Segalstad, a CCR-II Contributing Author, also pointed out, "The ocean has a very large buffer capacity. Hence the pH of the ocean will not be significantly changed from the relatively small contribution of anthropogenic CO2." NIPCC Chapter Lead Author, Dr. Anthony Lupo, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Missouri, describes the new report as "the most comprehensive report yet on all the issues surrounding climate and climate change." Lupo worked on the climate models chapter about which he said, "It represents the problems and benefits of working with computer models as well as highlighting the current techniques, strategies, and shortcomings." "There is a climate problem," Carter admits. "It is the natural climate-related events that exact very real human and environmental costs. Therefore, we must prepare for, and adapt to, all climate hazards when they happen. Spending billions of dollars on CO2 controls in a vain attempt to stop these events from occurring reduces the wealth of societies, and so our capacity to address these and other real world problems." ICSC Energy Issues advisor, New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland, concludes, "Governments should welcome the NIPCC CCR-II report. It provides them with the scientific evidence they need to justify ending the expansion of ineffective alternative energy sources and other expensive and futile strategies to control climate. Then they can focus on supporting our most powerful energy sources—coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and hydro-power—in order to end the scourge of energy poverty that afflicts over one billion people across the world." SOURCE International Climate Science Coalition

--------- Boruc --------- Clyne - Fonte - Lovren - Shaw --------- Big Vic --------- ----- Gaston - Morgan ----- --- Dani - SRL - Lallana ---

Sorry, but I just don't get this comment. As they are free agents, without a contract and a club, who is currently paying the wages of the out-of-work professional footballers? Surely an income of say 10k p/week is better than an income as a free agent of 0k p/week?

Hey, Having traveled from the UK to Aus via Singapore a number of times the best places we've found to stay in Singapore are either the Fairmont or the Swissotel The Stamford. Above a huge shopping mall for the missus, has a great pool for the kids and an excellent Indian Restaurant (Shahi Maharani) for you. Also central for Boat and Collyer Quay and can walk to the Merlion etc... Also the Marina Bay Sands is good and kid friendly but can be expensive - has an awesome pool though. As Phil mentioned, Darling Harbour is a good bet and most of the rooms in the Novotel have 2x double beds. For Melbourne, we've stayed at the Novotel St Kilda which is OK but I'd suggest a serviced appt (look for Quest or Mantra).

That its "Oh, they're tired" and not "over tired" FFS. :-)

Holy Krapola - if he's half as good as he looks in some of those games in the vids above we're in with a decent chance at winning something this season. What a central spine of the team we now have .... Boruc - Lovren - Yoshida - Wanyama - Morgan - Ramirez - Lambert - Osvaldo The future for our club looks very bright indeed. COYR's

Oh he's an ITK alright - as in Immature Trolling K unt