shurlock

This same fella https://unherd.com/2019/01/corbynomics-winning-britain-2/?=refinnar A lot of hindsight on here today.

Pony. Most thought he had blown his chances in 2016 after Gove stabbed him in the back. Had May not called a GE in 2017 and/or not proceeded to run a terrible campaign, blowing a historic lead, she would have had the numbers to get her withdrawal agreement over the line and Johnson would have been history. Alternatively she could have crossed her own redlines -like Johnson shamelessly has done- and put a regulatory and customs border in the Irish numbers, likely securing the support of the ERG. Or she could have worked with Parliament from the outset and secured cross-party support for a deal. In any of these circumstances, the case for Johnson would have been much weaker.

Head's gone. One step at a time pal.

To cut to the chase, trade and balance of payment data are highly distorted by gold movements. London is the world's major financial centre for the gold trade (80% of trade in bullion but also gold exchange traded funds). The UK doesn’t produce, refine or own the underlying gold and therefore it adds virtually nothing to the UK economy yet it shows up in its entirety in the UK’s export figures. Since the majority of gold is shipped to countries such as China, Switzerland and India, it inflates the total amount of exports reported as going to non-EU countries. That trade can be sufficiently large that it often ranks as the UK's top export above aerospace, cars, pharmaceuticals, business services etc. Note the period under question -the twelve months to September 2019- saw gold demand/prices go through the roof due to recession fears, rising protectionism and dovish central banks. Statisticians and economists who work with the data fully understand these limitations - that's why they are heavily caveated. The ONS has toiled for a number of years without much success to come up with ways to publish additional trade statistics stripping out non-monetary gold by geography. You'll also find articles in the informed business press discussing the problem. So there’s your answer pal. Adjust for gold and your point is fool’s gold (never mind that even if you include gold but look at the whole post-referendum period, the share of UK exports going to the EU has still increased relative to non-EU countries -that is, UK exports to the EU have grown more rapidly). As I tell your little chum, John, you need to look behind the figures (experts huh) -not cluelessly parrot them and make yourself look silly. As for Liz Truss, I bet black holes are brighter than her.

Whether its good news or not is beside the point. The figure is economically and statistically misleading. A word of advice: don't parrot things you don't understand, especially a Liz Truss press release

Comfortable victory. They played right into our hands. Can't believe the amount of space we had on the counter. For all his limitations, Long once again showed how valuable he is to the squad and Ralph's system

Well done for confirming your statistical illiteracy Les.

Not really Les. I would have focussed on the prize, not looking back and reeking of insecurity.

Not sure a foaming-at-the-mouth, one-track mind swivel like you is a good barometer of the national mood and why Labour lost, Les. But I'll keep your views in mind pal (like I do a jehovah's witness knocking on my door at dinner time)

Starmer - not sure he’s the long-term answer (ideologically he’s a black box and a bit dour/bloodless to the extent it matters to the electorate) but he would provide needed competence and credibility in the short-term.

Caroline Flint

I wasn't speculating about the UK's relative dependence on exports to the EU or individual member states such as Germany and France. Its in the data pal.

Still having your cake and eat - at times claiming the EU is a homogeneous supranational bloc riding roughshod over national sovereignty; at others no more than loose collection of nation states pursuing and securing their own individual interests. Make your mind up Either way lets be clear: France and Germany are far less dependent on exports (as a % of GDP) to the UK than vice-versa. As for tariff free trade - you really don’t know how modern trade or current trade between the UK and EU works and that tariffs (that are already low with third countries) are far less important than nontariff barriers and regulatory frictions? It’s not the same as your garden gnome business on eBay pal. That said, the EU will happily do a deal limited to the elimination of tariffs (provided the UK agrees to access to fishing water and level playing field requirements) since any deal works to the EU's comparative advantage (in goods) and does absolutely nothing for the UK's comparative advantage (in services or even just-in-time production).

And one man’s freedom fighter is another man’s jihadist terrorist, right Les. It seems that the markets (and every sane person) agree with me: Johnson’s stunt has served only to increase uncertainty. Re your response to Badger, here’s another little metaphor to make understanding simpler for you. Imagine an elephant (EU) and a bulldog (UK) getting into a fight. In that fight, the elephant (EU) loses three pints of blood, the bulldog (UK) loses two pints of blood. Note that the elephant loses more blood than the bulldog. Who is worse afterwards: the elephant or the bulldog pal? In concrete terms, the EU exports more to the UK but it’s economy is also significantly bigger, so could absorb any disruption to trade much more easily. Specifically the UK exports to the EU are around 13% of UK GDP where as EU exports to the UK are only 3-4% of its economy. So yes Badger is entirely correct.

Wouldn't be too preoccupied about daily movements and noise (leave that to the rookies and hobbyists); but it was explained in no uncertain terms that uncertainty and sterling weakness were very likely to return given the transition period ends in December 2020 forcing another cliff-edge. The only thing that has caught me out by surprise is the government's active desire to seek out uncertainty so quickly into its term (rather than as negotiating redlines meet reality) with childish, counterproductive grandstanding.

edit

Which has absolutely nothing to do with a Brexit dividend and everything to do with extra borrowing.

The Turkish government has blown hot and cold (the public less so) despite the fact that it shares cultural and linguistic similarities with the Uighurs and other Turkic ethnic groups in the broader Central and West Asian region.

Missing the point pal. Wanting coalitions in principle is one thing; having an electoral system that punishes smaller parties and makes coalitions difficult in practice is quite another. Nothing in the OP is an argument against coalitions per se. It is just a recognition of the reality that as long as we have FPTP, more formal alliances may be unavoidable. Try and keep up.

What’s a metropolitan remainer bubble? And just because you’re thick doesn’t mean every leaver is Les.

Very cute pal. A bit of advice on form filling. Let’s just say those things would be the least of your worries in the event of a crash out no deal.

Selling out the DUP and the Micks as LD dismissingly calls them is one thing. It requires minimal courage or statesmanship. Taking on the English Nationalists is quite another. While Johnson has the raw numbers to do what he likes in Parliament, the howls of betrayal outside it if he changed course would be deafening. You just need to look at the fanatics and freaks on these threads. As I’ve said before, the populist tail is wagging the dog, not the other way around.

As usual, Nolan, you make little sense. No deal training - you’re having a laugh pal.

https://www.ft.com/content/739a46f6-202b-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b He’s learned absolutely nothing - 2020 should be full of excellent trading opportunities. Certainty my ar$e.