shurlock

It’s a bit more complicated - you have doctors and scientists who can tell you exactly how the virus acts; then you have behavioral economists/psychologists who are predicting how humans -with all their imperfections and irrationalities- are likely to respond. Needless to say, modeling the latter is very imprecise and based on all kinds of assumptions - so in this case, that we lack the discipline, motivation and constancy to put up with long-term restrictions on our behaviour, so rather than shooting our wad now, it’s better to wait till the virus starts to hit, so we can maintain commitment when it truly matters. There is evidence to support this view -and I will do as I’m told; but it’s reasonable to acknowledge it’s context-dependent and the uncertainty around estimates and so different countries with their respective experts will legitimately reach different policy conclusions, especially as they are having to juggle multiple, conflicting goals.

Its a bit more complicated - it was the summer of 2017 when the wheels really came off. While Les had a growing number of critics then after some lackluster signings, shenanigans behind the scenes and his sheer hubris, he still had plenty of fans - or at least those who were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for his previous record. If Goa had come in and made wholesale changes, doubtless he would have copped a lot of flak.

Britain has had enough of experts.

He’s not mentioned the children yet, has he?

Yes I said “a bit” which, if you used your brain and thought about it, is an even weaker condition to satisfy. Thanks for pointing that pal That is, it’s far easier for me to make the case that the two budgets would be “a bit” similar than showing parts would be similar (though I happily stand by that statement too). Look forward to your refutation how the significant commitment to public spending, investment and borrowing in yesterday’s budget wouldn’t be “a bit” like a McDonnell budget.

I said parts would be like a McDonnell budget (its literally in the first sentence I wrote)- which is clearly correct unless you don't think a McDonnell budget would seriously ramp up public spending/investment and borrowing. #magicmoneytree

It didn’t feature because from the outset I was making a point about Sunak’s lavish approach to spending and borrowing, though you initially tried to imply otherwise which you now admit was nonsensical. Thanks for proving my point, Les So Sunak has discovered the magic money tree - as my friend Portes says, how McDonnellesque. In your next act of desperation, no doubt, you’ll be telling me that McDonnell’s plans were only ever about nationalisation and never included any hefty spending commitments (public services, infrastructure, R&D, housing etc), so nothing like Sunak’s. Honest gov.

Stop getting tied up in knots and your knickers in a twist Les. You can logically have a forest of magic money trees without any commitment to nationalisation of industry. If I meant to say nationalisation, I would have said it. I did not. And obviously I didn't because it didn't feature in yesterday's budget, though lots of spending and borrowing certainly did Jonathan Portes sums it up well. Yesterday’s budget was a combo of the “Brown/Darling approach to a global economic crisis, combined with the Corbyn/McDonnell approach to medium-term spending and borrowing (but more borrowing)”.

Keep up, Les. I didn’t say it looked exactly like it. And I referred to the borrowing/spending side of the equation - I didn’t refer to ownership/nationalisation (the two are conceptually distinct). It appears that LD is a bit more principled than you.

It’s disturbing how few people the US has tested (~8500). Compare that with the UK (-27,500) despite the US having a population nearly 5x larger than the UK. Without proper testing, it’s impossible to track the movement of the virus, identify and isolate clusters and make risk-based assessments about prioritisation and resourcing.

You mean it would have looked a bit like Sunak’s pal? Looks like it’s not just Labour that has discovered the magic money tree.

Do you know how hard it is to fail a fit and proper person test?

Glasgow’s self-isolating in his basement with bog roll and a party bag of wotsits.

There goes our 12th man.

I’ll give to you: at least, you’re intellectually consistent. Not something that can be said about many Conservative supporters lapping up the budget.

According to HMT’s own distributional analysis, in terms of changes in tax and welfare benefits, the budget is actually regressive, so it’s tilted to richer households. But I’m sure you knew that already.

Good lad.

Nadine Dorries tests positive.

Basically he’s not heard anything about Jack Ma/Southampton -and he would be very surprised if he was interested in the club. At any rate, most Chinese investments related to football -whether domestically or overseas- are irrational and short-termist (of which Goa is living proof).

It’s good to know Cabbage Face is still alive.

Yep. My money’s on Dalian Wanda. He won’t want to be beaten to the punch a second time.

Love how he still thinks he’s the smartest man in the room. https://mobile.twitter.com/owillis/status/1234607697540063234

Agree. Going to take a while for the penny to drop and Goa to realise that nobody will pay his asking price. What the news does suggest is that Goa is unlikely to do anything but the bare minimum in the transfer market (i.e. no fullbacks in winter windows) and will drastically limit his exposure to the club while waiting for that elusive buyer.

Stock markets are going to take a proper pounding in the morning (as if the last few weeks haven’t been hairy enough). Hold tight.

Welcome back. How was Chocoholics Anonymous?