shurlock

Starting to hit now.

Whitty's now self-isolating after suffering symptoms.

Not entirely true - the hedge fund industry looks nothing like it did 10-20 years ago. Inflows from institutional investors such as public pension funds have grown substantially over this time (albeit with a tiny recent dip). Public pension funds make up about a fifth of hedge fund assets globally. As you say these investors have quite different preferences and attitudes to risk and return; as such, many hedge funds have changed or launched strategies to meet this demand. Rather than offering heady but volatile returns, the emphasis is much more on stable but modest returns but critically returns that are uncorrelated with common risk assets. Needless to say some do this well; some do it poorly.

The study has been misrepresented by the media -and the Oxford academics have dubiously done little to correct matters. Guess they’re happy with the publicity. The study is a sensitivity analysis, exploring what would happen under different assumptions about the % of the public that is at risk of hospitalisation. Basically if you assume that the virus is pretty mild (that 1/1000 people are at a risk of hospitalisation from it), then is likely that a larger number of people will have been infected given the observed number of deaths in the UK. Of course, as a hypothetical ‘what if’ exercise, it makes no claims about the actual severity of the virus and by extension the % of the public that has been infected. Alas that’s not the impression the press has given. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity

Wholeheartedly agree with you on that one Les.

Spot on

Ordered a book from Amazon on Saturday - arrived this lunchtime.

Classic Westie

Wow Which clown said if this was a weapon, it would be a pretty feeble one

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8 https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus?t=1584912712939

Crawley is to pandemics as Maidstone is to terrorism?

edit

Properly taking the pîss. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/exposed-the-doctor-who-got-2-5m-in-a-week-from-coronavirus-tests-78hd6wqfv

Yep pretty obvious it was a cumulative count.

I see well-known epidemiologist and trade economist Tim Martin has been helping to deliver a consistent message.

Very interesting - thanks for the insight.

The last episode was a bit hit and miss (guess it’s the calm before the storm of the final episode) but the run of three episodes in the middle -the driving lesson, Len’s internet romance and Kurtan’s half-brother funeral- rivalled anything from the first two series.

Surprised he’s not banging on about pregnant trans men too.

I don’t know the full context for the quote. But assuming the interpretation is correct, my point remains exactly the same: your original post implied those predictions were far more of a base case they actually are. Many experts don’t share them, including the CMO of all people and the Imperial College study that has heavily influenced policy both here and in the US.

In other words, nursing homes are just an another form of quarantine and social distancing. I guess that’s more by accident than design? I also wouldn’t be surprised if the higher levels of social isolation and loneliness found in nursing homes didn’t pose their own health risks.

Just seen this - thanks. Needless to say (and thankfully), it is only one prediction and not shared by many others, including apparently the CMO himself and certainly not researchers at Imperial College who have probably produced the most detailed and exhaustive estimates to date on the transmission of the virus.

I saw you and the surname and immediately assumed you were talking about Guy. I wonder why that it is Terrible freak accident.

China reporting no new cases of local transmission. I'd say that's optimistic at best.

Yes very bingeworthy. Saw it over the Xmas holidays, conjured up images of mongboarders tracking new signings on Flightradar24. The protagonist was truly chilling, especially how he was first introduced (his doctored profile popping up all over the web). Still it left plenty of threads hanging - did the group actually contribute to his capture -I got the sense it’s role was overegged by the filmmakers and was the woman followed to her workplace or was it a red herring? Thought the final episode was simultaneously manipulative and a bit of an anticlimax. But that might just reflect on how gripping the first two episodes were.

I liked it - a cross between the watchmen film and inglourious basterds.