CHAPEL END CHARLIE

I seldom post much on the main board any more - mostly because I can't actually afford to come to games all that often these days and hence feel less qualified to express an opinion. But I think this forum has long been divided between those who see its role as essentially a 'cheer-leading' opportunity (anyone remember NickG) and those who prefer to adopt a more 'warts and all' approach. There is clearly also something in the nature of Internet communication that encourages a degree of aggression that few would feel free to express in any other social situation - yes I too have been known to yield to this temptation. Surely it is best to be honest in life and when things are going wrong fans are perfectly entitled to express their true feelings. The alternative is too tedious to contemplate is it not?

If we are really going to sit in hasty judgement on the Governor of the Bank of England then it is only fair I think that we take a look a what he actually said and then compare that to the record. Statement from Governor of the Bank of England on behalf of the BoE's 'Monetary Policy Committee' issued in May 2016 shortly before the referendum: "A vote to leave the EU could materially alter the outlook for output and inflation ... which could lead to a materially lower path for growth and notably higher path for inflation" - Mark Carney. • Inflation. Since the referendum the official UK inflation rate (the CPI) has risen from a low of 0.6% in the second quarter to a high of 1.4% in Q4. Furthermore, the Bank now forecasts that inflation will rise to 2.7% this year. • Growth. The ONS calculates that - against expectations - GDP growth remanded steady in the second half of 2016 following the referendum. It is a matter of record that for 2017 the independent OBR (Office of Budget Responsibly) has reduced its UK growth forecast from 2.2% down to 1.4% - this a direct consequence of Brexit. For 2018 the official UK forecast growth rate has reduced from a healthy 2.2% down to 1.7%. • Sterling The UKP suffered a massive 13.24% devaluation against the US Dollar immediately after the referendum - reaching a 31 year low - and has shown little signs of any sustained recovery ever since. This too is obviously a direct consequence of the referendum outcome when you comprehend the timing of this crash. • Borrowing Before the referendum the OBR had predicted that in 2019/20 the UK would enjoy a budget SURPLUS of some £10bn. Post referendum the OBR now forecasts that a this nation will run a budget DEFICIT of £21.9bn in that financial year. Overall government borrowing is expected to increase by £122bn in FY2021/22 - half of this huge sum is attributed by the OBR to the economic consequences of Brexit So there you go then - all of the above is easily checkable should it be questioned. Far from being grossly mistaken the record shows that our currency has indeed become devalued. It is also a matter of indisputable fact that our inflation rate has already risen significantly and is forecast to rise further as the increased costs of our imports feed-through the system - much as Carney predicted in fact. Our growth rate may (thankfully) be steady for now, but growth is indeed expected to fall in the months and years ahead alas. It may even be that far from slating Mark Carney some on here should be thanking him for his swift actions that arguably prevented what is a pretty bad situation becoming a even worse one perhaps. Although I expect they lack the grace to do that. Instead all I'm really expecting is more 'forecasts are worthless' type of stuff from the usual suspects.

Before this molehill starts to rival Mt Everest in scale here be what the Governor of the BoE actually said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625 So the Governor states that the risks posed to the LONG TERM prospects of our economy of our leaving the EU/Single Market have not disappeared into the ether as implied and are still quote: "elevated". Those with a better understanding of the role of the Bank might also comprehend that the Governor has been in 'damage limitation' mode ever since the referendum - for obvious reasons. Furthermore, talking the prospects of our economy 'up' is also of course a important part of his job. Again someone on here seems to need reminding (again) that Sterling did indeed crash very much as predicted and inflation has risen as a result and is set to rise further.

Well I suppose you have made a bit of a name for yourself on here as a serial denier. But even you can't refute that your brilliant 'Winalot' (win-a-lot) gag is at least partially responsible for the crisis the NHS is now under. At this very moment surgeons across southern England are frantically busy attempting to stitch together the sides of hundreds of forum members who literally laughed themselves into their local casualty department when they saw it. Be more responsible in future.

You say you are capable of smiling but I doubt it somehow. But If you really do intend to lay claim to the title of this forum's leading funny man (!) then some more original material than this will be required I'm afraid. Although labelling your Googled *jokes* as jokes beforehand is probably a wise move.

No gags today Les? How disappointing I sleep just fine thank you, although obviously evening posting is a thing of the past now. As for drawing conclusions about our long term economic future - two years before we have even left EU and its huge Single Market - I would have thought the dangers of this short termism should be apparent to all. This situation is akin to receiving a puppy as a Christmas present - fun at the time perhaps but you really should be thinking about the long term implications of dog ownership too. This 'pup' the British people were sold six months ago sure has a lot of growing still to do ...

Well I didn't know you cared Les. But as this appears to interest you for some reason I frequently start work at 4am, so I'm often to be found awake before that time - I find it preferable to wake up prior to arriving at work. Congratulations by the way on your first ever *joke* - Noel Coward himself would have been proud to have devised such a splendid example of dry wit at its best

If this kind of stuff is supposed to be painful to me then I must inform you I've been more grievously hurt in the past by an enraged kitten. The forum will also note with some interest I suspect that you have elected to climb down from your 'high horse' in regard to that little corruption business that had twisted your underwear so painfully. Never mind Les, they do say that Jesus loves a sinner who repents ...

Well my old pedigree chum. If you really doubt that inflation is set to rise further, for some inexplicable reason, then why don't you explain why that should be? If you are either too lazy (or perhaps too incompetent) to do your own research then I am quite prepared to act on your behalf in this matter. However, as it is my practice to only undertake work in return for payment I will naturally require that suitable compensation be arranged by you beforehand of course. As a (sometimes) Tory voter I expect that you will instinctively approve of my enterprising approach here. Should you be unprepared to reimburse me for my time then by all means do feel free to make your own case - I can hardly wait to see your in-depth inflation analysis being the great expert on the subject that you are ... Yesterday you saw fit to describe most of the leading economic forecasting organisations as both incompetent and corrupt. Serious allegations I think that the forum will note you have failed to prove to any substantive degree. This represents disreputable behaviour on your part old chap. While on this subject I must also say here that your 'outraged virgin' routine is becoming rather hackneyed now. For example, when you write (post #2989) that the forecasts you disapprove of so were quote: "driven by vested interests" then how on earth is anyone else supposed to interpret that comment but as some kind of allegation of corruption or malpractice? Please answer this specific point without your usual recourse to evasion or more weasel words. As I told you TWICE yesterday, the key pre-referendum forecast has come true - the record shows that we did indeed suffer a major Sterling crisis and inflation has already started to rise as a consequence of that. I intend to repeat this until such time as you understand it. For the record, Sterling also fell again yesterday as the market interpreted a speech the PM made as a indication that your 'hard Bretix' option is set to come about. That's not the sinister 'project fear' casting its dark shadow over the nation, but rather hard-headed money men giving us all their verdict on this nation's economic prospects. If only you were capable of laying down the Daily Mail for once and picking up something better then you might begin to comprehend that other pre-referendum warnings are rapidly becoming realities. For example, the Times yesterday reported that HALF the financial institutions that warned they would have to move jobs abroad if we left the Single Market have either done so already, or are in the process to doing so at this time. The other half will very probably follow this example in the coming months and years ahead I suspect. Those lost jobs in our important financial services sector are highly paid and highly skilled positions that are now being exported aboard to France or Germany I suspect. Explain how is that in our national interest? Did you not see what Nicola Sturgeon had to say about a second Scottish Independence referendum at the weekend - is there any reason to doubt her? Not that the potential break-up of the UK is a matter that you are much "bothered" about of course ... So there is some reason to believe then that the much derided 'project fear' may well have been much closer to the mark than you like to think.

My dear Lesley - please explain to the forum why exactly you seek my personal opinion on where our inflation rate is heading so avidly when it is but the work of a moment to check for yourself the official OBR estimate? Google is your friend in this type of situation. I'm sure many on here will recall just how dismissive you were/are of official forecasting data, but surely the forecasts of a respectable body such as the OBR, an office staffed by some of the best economists this nation has to offer, are rather more worthwhile than that of a layman you happen to distrust? But I am nevertheless flattered that you value my opinion so very highly. But if basic economic theory is one of those subjects you seem to struggle with - put simply - the theory goes that whenever any traded currency is significantly devalued (as did happen to Sterling post the referendum outcome of course) then the cost of said nation's imports must inevitably rise. This has the knock-on effect of increasing inflation - especially in a island economy that must import as much as we do. Happy to help. You then go on to allege that that the "majority" of pre referendum forecasts have been proven to be incorrect - the forum will note without either bothering to prove this assertion of yours or even being sufficiently honest to acknowledge that Sterling has indeed crashed and inflation has started to rise - very much as predicted by more or less all the big forecasting organisations. This is the second time I have had to remind you of this today - perhaps these truths will take hold on the second attempt one hopes. You also imply that those bodies making these forecast are corrupt for some reason - a very serious allegation that you should either prove or withdraw. Again, as the referendum campaign is history now why any of these organisations would continue to imperil their reputation, when obviously there is now no referendum in the offing to influence, is one of your little mysteries that do arise whenever you decide to converse with me. Not for the first time on here you really are not making much sense. Finally, as for the 'thick skin' you feel developing over your aged body, I fear very much that based that on today's evidence this chronic condition is starting to spread to your skull. See a doctor old boy.

I'm pleased to see you concede that predicting the Sterling crisis is very much a hindsight type, post-referendum, affair as far as you are concerned. On a equally positive note, I guess the entire forum is in awe of your unmatched spelling ability - that little 'Flak' faux pas the other day aside of course. As for your oh-so-comfortable financial situation, this too has become the stuff of legend on here. Indeed, the degree of insulation this veritable 'pile of cash' provides you from all the little everyday problems many of your less fortunate citizens will experience - especially our young of course - explains much I think. Perhaps your shameless - I'm alright jack - attitude will also be of some comfort to many in the trying times to come. Less impressive however is your poor grasp of economics or your apparent inability to comprehend the key difference there is between what is pessimism, and what is realism. Neither is this bizarre attempt now to deny the prolonged campaign you waged on here last year attempting to rebuke almost EVERY pro EU news story that came along during the referendum campaign at all plausible. There are I suspect less ideologically committed Taliban suicide bombers out there than you are when it comes to to this matter. Indeed, the last time I saw an attempt to 'rewrite history' quite this brazen was in the aftermath of Stalin's death! I really don't mind people standing up for what they believe in - I do - but resorting to obvious lies really won't do I'm afraid.

Well I always take great care to read your regular little missives addressed to me - the problem with attempting to make any sense of them is that you are so very inconsistent is is becoming increasingly hard to comprehend you. It makes no sense to claim now that you are somehow non committal on the fate of our economy, when the record shows that you have spent much of the last year being anything but non committal on issues related to this debate. Are the advancing years starting to take a heavy toll on your mental faculties I wonder? On the plus side, however incomprehensible, your post was at least immaculately spelt ... I see that you go on to attempt to underplay the true significance of the Pound's fall by stating that our currency was overvalued before the referendum - in your opinion that is. In reality there is very little reason to believe that - in general market forces decide what a currency is truly worth - and I must say this claim would sound more convincing coming from you now had you said this BEFORE the referendum outcome. But I don't recall you claiming that - probably because you were too busy telling anyone who would listen to you that there could be NO possible averse consequences of this nation voting your way. Such a possibility is just incompatible with your world view is it not? While we are on the subject, do please explain why you feel that my repeating on here official OBR inflation and growth forecasts endangers anything as this is something of a mystery? As for my prediction that this nation will become a poorer one directly or indirectly as a result of the referendum decision, I suppose we will indeed just have to wait and see for the final proof of that - although there seems little reason to doubt this at this time. In the meantime, and on a personal note only you understand, I can confirm to you now that I am already distinctly worse off financially due to the referendum. The post referendum BoE's decision to reduce UK interest rates, a move obviously brought about as a consequence of the Stirling crisis, cost me money when my bank decided to half its savings rate as a result. The rise in petrol prices that can be (partially) attributed to the rise in inflation the currency crisis brought about has also taken a small, but nevertheless noticeable, toll. These effects are just the proverbial 'first sparrow of spring' I'm afraid because the real pain is yet to come for many millions of your fellow citizens - not that you care of course.

You don't think that your depicting those who disagree with you as "remoaners" is itself quite childish?

My dear Les, if I'm really to be found 'raking over the old coals' of last year's referendum then there is little room for doubt that I'd soon find you down there at my side me digging away - your various contributions to this thread prove this. As for your (gloriously implausible) claim that you've not taken a position on our future trading status with the EU, I can only say that predicting that the EU27 will grant us some privileged degree of access to the Single Market IS taking some kind of position. There is no reason in either fact or logic to believe such an dangerous assumption - euro sceptic wishful thinking aside that is. Before becoming too overenthusiastic in your criticism of HM Treasury forecasts, even you should really be aware that far and away the most important of all those pre-referendum predictions - i.e. the steep fall in the value of our currency and the resultant rise in UK inflation - has come to pass very much as predicted. That increased inflation effect has of course much further to go. Where the forecasts were wrong perhaps is that consumer confidence has - so far - held up much better than expected. It may be that accurately predicting how people are likely to think about the world in the future is becoming a evermore problematic process for not only economists, but also pollsters, to master for some reason. Be that as it may, how long this vital consumer confidence 'prop' to our economy with last is a matter of speculation. For what it is worth the OBR currently predicts a significant fall in UK GDP growth over the coming years - losing the economy many billions of Pounds. This time even someone as famously 'evidence averse' as you are can't just glibly dismiss this type of warning as more pro-EU propaganda because the referendum is long past now. I recall saying on here before the referendum that leaving the EU would make this nation of ours a poorer place than it would otherwise have been. Unfortunately I've seen nothing over the subsequent six months which leads me to question that unhappy prediction.

It is stuck in a box with that £350m we are getting.

Says the man who would shamelessly parrot any Bretix propaganda here on a daily basis. As I've said before, I don't think that either official campaign can look back on their actions during the referendum battle with much - if any - sense of pride. On the other hand you (characteristically) seem to see things in more simplistic 'black and white' terms. Ultimately, methinks the outright lies and assorted distortions the 'Vote Leave' campaign told the British people were the more effective set of falsehoods - probably because that set of lies is what more British people chose to believe for some reason. This is a pretty sorry state of affairs. The very fact that you are still peddling the ridiculous old tripe that the EU will back down and grant the UK some privileged degree of access to the Single Market - access that no one else in Europe can achieve - because we are mighty Britain and they need us, betrays just how deeply you misunderstand the reality of our situation. But the referendum campaign is history now and a Tory "one nation" government must find a way of navigating this old country of ours out of the utter mess we now find ourselves in - in one piece preferably. Your favoured solution seems to be to ignore half the nation and press ahead with an extreme euro-sceptic agenda you believe in so. This would hardly do in a dictatorship and is totally unacceptable in any modern democracy.

• I see no mandate in existence that would allow government to deliberately damage our economy, and therefore the welfare of the many millions of your fellow citizens it supports. The possibility of such a (irrational) mandate being achieved was sabotaged by the venal and deeply dishonest manner 'Vote Leave' chose to conduct themselves during last year's referendum campaign. Had the British people been honestly made aware of the adverse economic consequences they would likely face in the event of our estrangement from the EU Single Market, then I believe the referendum outcome may well have been reversed. Indeed, this seems highly likely I think. • The notion that we can somehow mitigate the damage to our trading economy that will inevitably follow the introduction of a new tariff regime with the EU, by forming new trade deals with more distant nations, is dangerously speculative at best, illusionary at worse. • As our economy surely requires a good degree of access to the EU Single Market - still nearly HALF our total exports - some kind of 'Norway' or 'Switzerland' style associate relationship with the EU will have to be agreed. I see no realistic alternative to this given the economic reality of our situation. The exact terms of this arrangement would obviously be subject to negotiation. However, it is quite clear that some manner of compromise over the key immigration issue will have to be agreed with the EU27. • I suspect that at around half the nation would broadly agree with the above sentiments. So pressing ahead with the hard-line policy you and your fellow euro-sceptics would doubtless favour, while ignoring every other point of view, risks ripping this nation asunder. I put it to you that this would be a bad thing would it not?

^ The post of a true fanatic.

I'm more than a little relieved that our economy did not crash in the immediate aftermath of last year's vote. However, claims that leaving the EU will somehow be a consequence-free move for our economy, years before we have even left that body, seem grossly premature at best - kind of like jumping out of a tall building and proclaiming the experience to be a entirely painless one halfway down. Meanwhile, it would seem that any hopes that the UK will be able to "buy" access to the EU Single Market area post Bretix, without accepting that Market's core principles as Norway has, are unlikely to be realised: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38523368

By law we have fixed term Parliaments in this country now. I understand that the only circumstances that would allow that - five year - term to be reduced is either the elected government of the day losing a Confidence Vote in the House of Commons, or two thirds of all MP's agreeing to call a early election. Neither eventuality looks very likely to occur at this time.

Yes, in his dotage Lord King apparently feels that Bretix presents the UK with lots of "opportunities" - one of those opportunities presumably being for us all to get a Hell of a lot poorer.

My 8 year old God daughter can hardly pass a beggar in the street without stopping to offer them a little (of my) money. Her child-like sense of compassion towards those less fortunate than herself contrasts sharply with the adult lack of empathy honestly professed in the post above. When I'm out and about without that wonderful little girl at my side, and I see a homeless person, I do certainly sympathise with them - especially in the winter weather - and remember that 'there but by the grace of God go I. But to be frank about it l seldom do anything to meaningfully help them. Now I can easily rationalize this reaction by thinking that any small amount of money I might give them would probably end up being spent on drugs or booze, or that being on quite a low income myself I can't really afford to be too generous anyway. But I know deep down somewhere that this is wrong and that my innocent child is right. We should also remember that many of those living on our streets have suffered from child abuse and/or are in the grip of an addiction problem that is far beyond their ability to control. This is perhaps one of those (yes terribly clichéd) situations when our children actually have much to teach us because the day when the fate of humanity is no longer 'our business' is also the day when something important in us dies.

I've just seen the first instalment in what I understand is set to become Disney's so-called Anthology Series - 'Star Wars: Rogue One' - and much enjoyed it. Set immediately before George Lucas's original 1977 'Star Wars' epic this movie tells the story about how the crucial plans for the Galactic Empire's fearsome 'Deathstar' first came into the hands of the Rebel Alliance. Okay, all these films are more than a bit 'popcorn' escapist entertainment in nature, and methinks that those seeking out truly good science fiction should probably look elsewhere. But a diet of good quality popcorn every now and again won't do you too much harm I suppose and this cinematic meal is a tasty treat indeed. In fact I actually enjoyed 'Rogue One' more than last year's slightly disappointing 'The Force Awakens' as this film does at least go to the trouble of telling fans a different story, rather than simply repeating what went before but with the benefit of modern special effects and a huge promotional budget. With no direct sequel required this time 'Rogue One' is also free to show the legions of Star Wars fans out there that great achievement seldom occurs without great sacrifice either. For all its stunning special effects and family friendly mission statement in some ways this is perhaps the darkest and most adult film of the entire series so far. The infamous Darth Vader making a comeback here came as a welcome, but nevertheless expected, treat for this fan. This is a straightforward enough matter as the actor playing the role is invisible behind the famous Vader mask and James Earl Jones is still around to provide THAT voice. But seeing the (long dead of course) Peter Cushing reprise - in a sense - his role in the original film was in its own way a wonderful thing to behold. I recall seeing the (impressive at the time) first steps into this brave new CGI created world many years ago in the highly successful children's film 'Toy Story' - but the tech has evolved to such an advanced state now where is becoming quite hard to tell if what you are seeing is real, or some artfully created illusion. A young looking Carrie Fisher also makes a brief cameo style appearance as do R2D2 and C3PO. Indeed, I suspect that at least half the audience in the cinema with me yesterday never even realised that much of what they are seeing is impossible. So splendid Xmas entertainment in every way then.

Switzerland is indeed a horrid cesspit of a nation. All that health, wealth, happiness and outstanding natural beauty - we certainly don't want any of that post Brexit Britain and no mistake!

I'm more than a tad worried frankly that we are going to struggle again here - they beat us in this fixture last season and have improved markedly since. We on the other hand have stagnated at best. So - logically - we may be set for a bit of a hammering then. But, as any fool knows, the game of football is seldom a exercise in logic so put your money on the Saints to win 2-0.