Suspect the numbers are a lot lower than that, tbh. My understanding was that around 10,000 had renewed, but a number of those would have done so almost exclusively to guarantee retaining their seat for future seasons and would opt out of games this season (or at least in the early part of any return). I'd imagine it's a 1 in 2 shot if it was a pure ballot - I'd be slightly concerned, though, as someone who doesn't live in the area that the club might prioritise those who live in an SO postcode with a view to minimising the travel aspect of things.