At the start of the war? Everyone thought Russia were a peer to the USA.
Now? Even after switching to a war economy, Russia can’t protect their own skies, they’re torching their economy deeper and deeper, more and more unsustainably, to fund their military. Materiel consists more and more of civilian equipment, throwing thousands of barely trained troops and foreign mercenaries into gaining small Pyrrhic victories. They can still cause an awful lot of pain, but they don’t have the military means to defeat Ukraine.
Oil money is running out, transport companies are going bankrupt, and even oil companies are going under. In Russia!
The biggest lever they have left is terror, targeting civilians in a desperate hope that it becomes too painful to continue, and they’re pulling on that lever as viciously as they possibly can, but that won’t stop Ukraine militarily.