From a website that cant be arsed to give us a reporter
Southampton have signed midfielder Flynn Downes from West Ham United in a deal worth up to £18million ($23.4m).
Downes has signed a four-year deal having spent last season on loan at Southampton.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100 to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here (not all transfers will be rated as there may be a lack of data to support an analysis).
Below is our rating for this move.
At the heart of Russell Martin’s setup is a focus on possession-based football and patient build-up play. Downes is a high-volume passer with excellent short-to-medium-range distribution. His 93 per cent pass completion rate, along with his intricate, combination passes, should allow him to do well at Southampton.
Downes’ ability to progress the ball through the middle third will be key in helping Southampton break down compact defences. He is more than capable of keeping and recycling possession, as well as dictating the tempo of the game.
The image below shows turnover rates of Championship midfielders in the 2023-24 season. The low turnover rate suggests Downes is a tidy, reliable midfielder who keeps the ball moving for his team.
While Downes may not have the physical dominance to win many aerial duels, his strong defensive positioning and work rate should help shore up Southampton’s midfield. His 7.3 defensive duels per 90 minutes show that he can break up opposition attacks and provide cover for the back four.
As shown in a January league match against Sheffield Wednesday, Cameron Dawson plays a pass into space that Anthony Musaba runs on to. Downes recognises this, times his run well, and makes a perfect tackle.
One of the key advantages Downes brings to Southampton is his prior experience working under Martin at Swansea City and Southampton last season. This familiarity with the manager’s tactical philosophy and demands should make integration into the squad much easier.
Downes has experience in multiple midfield roles, including as a defensive anchor or a more advanced playmaker, providing Martin with tactical flexibility and the option to tweak his system based on the opposition.
While Downes seems well-suited for Southampton, there are a few areas he may need to work on. During his time at West Ham, despite being a Premier League player, he struggled to consistently earn playing time, which may have contributed to his eventual move to Southampton.
In possession, Downes tends to play conservatively, without many switches of play or penetrative through balls. His progressive passing metrics are also relatively low, averaging only 4.3 progressive passes per 90 minutes, which places him in the 32nd percentile among his positional peers.
The lack of regular minutes at West Ham could have impacted Downes’ development and confidence, but his permanent switch to Southampton provides a fresh opportunity to establish himself as a consistent starter and continue progressing his game at the top level.
Season rating: 78/100
Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.
Flynn Downes had such an influential season at Southampton that head coach Russell Martin, who worked with Downes in his previous head coach role at Swansea, said he would “cry himself to sleep” if the club did not sign him permanently.
That is because he was integral to the club’s promotion. He made 36 appearances, starting 31 games, including 22 of the 25 matches Southampton spent unbeaten between September and February — a club record. That run only came to an end when Downes was sidelined with a hip injury, which saw him miss four league games. Southampton lost three of those matches.
Downes played 90 minutes in all three of the club’s Championship play-off fixtures, too, helping Saints to a Premier League return at the first time of asking.
Gaming rating: 68/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.
Downes has the potential to establish himself as a Premier League player, according to the data that powers Football Manager. His current ability rating, which is based on FM’s extensive scouting network, is 130, which is on the lower side of Premier League talent but still a decent squad member. Similar midfielders at this rating include Andre Gomes at Everton and Will Hughes at Crystal Palace, as well as Ryan Yates at Nottingham Forest, who is a similar age (25).
His potential ability rating is 142, which is not a signifier of much room to grow or high-end potential, but it would lift him into a regular Premier League starter category. Other players with a current ability rating of 142 include Mathias Jensen at Brentford and Tyler Adams at Bournemouth. Tomas Soucek at West Ham, for context, is on 140.
Financial value rating: 56/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 14/25
The £18million fee is broadly in line with the £12million sum that took Downes from Swansea to West Ham two years ago, a point when no Premier League experience had been gained. Not a huge outlay for a 25-year-old with solid experience, but there will be question marks over his top-flight pedigree.
Squad cost — 18/25
Southampton are not expected to be among the Premier League’s heaviest spenders but, as with Taylor Harwood-Bellis, turning a loan star of last season permanent was important. Continuity is king for Russell Martin.
Contract sensibility — 14/25
A four-year deal takes Downes to 2028 with Southampton and it is expected that wages will not prove to be a burden in the Premier League. A contract long enough to give everyone security without ever posing problems down the line.
Resale value — 10/25
Downes will be close to 30 by the time his new Southampton deal expires and it is hard to imagine his value will have held to that point. Form of the last three seasons, though, would ensure there will be no shortage of suitors if he was to leave ahead of that point.
Risk or reward? 78/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.
The main risks with any transfer centre on the unknown variables, particularly about how a player will adapt to a new environment, but that does not apply in this case. Downes is familiar with the club, the area, his new team-mates and his coach. He already has a concrete place in the team and has worked with Martin previously at Swansea. All parties know each other inside out by this point, so there should not be any surprises.
His injury record is pretty good, too, with the only notable knock being a knee injury at Ipswich in 2020-21, which kept him out for a couple of months. The only question mark is that Downes is still unproven at Premier League level. He was part of the West Ham side that won the Conference League and he made 21 appearances for the club in the top flight, but only seven were starts. That leaves room for uncertainty, particularly when it comes to value for money. His price tag is not huge, but it’s not small either.
He is 25, with his prime years ahead of him, and overall, there is limited risk. It is a smart — and as Martin will likely attest — essential signing for Southampton.
Overall rating: 340/500
