Midfield_General

Thanks for explaining how bookmakers work, I had literally no idea. How do you think the stories get written in the first place? Journalists often base their stories on leads, tip-offs and insider knowledge from connections at clubs, from agents and elsewhere within the game. Clubs and agents also feed information to selected journalists. All these factors contribute to the stories which go into the media and which create the rumours, which people then place bets on which impacts the odds the bookies offer. Not all of it will be accurate of course, there are plenty of social media bullshitters pretending to know things they don’t which can influence people, lots of the rumours will be serving different agendas, and things will change over the course of the process for any number of reasons, but to dismiss bookies odds as basically meaningless is simplistic, ill-informed and reductive, and shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how both football and the multi-billion pound betting industry works.

Some movement with the bookies today: Rohl moving out: generally around evens now, moved out from heavy odds-on before. Will Still moving in: generally around 3-4/1 now. Oh god, Gary O’Neil has come from nowhere to be second favourite at a fair few bookies now. Rosenior generally moving out to around 8-10/1 across the board. Cooper generally way out in the pack of randoms around 16/1, I’m not sure we’re even interested in him.

7/2 second favourite at William Hill and 3/1 second favourite at Bet365 - not at many other places yet though https://www.bettingodds.com/thesackrace/teams/southampton https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E112515524/F2/ Rohl still overwhelming favourite everywhere. Cooper is way out - said it before, but I really don't think he's in the mix. There's a lot of chat about him from fans but he's not amongst the favourites anywhere, he's just another random name in the pack out at 16/1 or more, along with people like Dyche, Lampard and Chris Davies.

I think I may have spotted the tiny flaw in this otherwise excellent plan

Sounds like Glasner is Leipzig's first choice, with Rohl as one of the fallbacks if Glasner doesn't fancy it or Palace won't play ball. Also feels like he would be quite a risky appointment for them. They're fifth in the Bundesliga and are currently one point off the Champions League qualification places. You'd think a guy coming from his first managerial job and currently 13th in the English second tier would be a slightly divisive appointment, at best. That's a very big step up.

Completely agree with your post. On this point though, what do you think he had to gain when he was doing that? I was watching it while it went out and couldn't believe the hypocrisy of what he was saying because as you say, he was criticising Spurs for doing exactly what he had been doing all season, with the same results. What was in that for him?

Can't really argue with that - that's the root of his issue in a nutshell I think

Martin also said in that interview (that @Nottssaint1 kindly posted and that I was wanging on about in the other thread) that he thought we had a weaker squad in the prem than we did in the championship. Which is a pretty odd thing to admit to, given he presumably had a fairly big hand in identifying and bringing in most of them. Don’t want to depress anyone though so let’s focus on reasons to be cheerful - at least we’re about to see the back of that horrific pink kit

And to think I cut out all the stuff about Norwich, Scotland, his mum, the genius of Paul Lambert...

Haha, yes, probably. I think the relief of nearly being able to forget all about this season and focusing on maybe actually winning some games next year has mellowed me out! Agree it was a soft soap interview. Football / podcast interviews generally are tbh, they tend to be more opportunities for the interviewee to present their view on things, rather than Paxman-style grillings. It's all a pretty cosy boys' club. Martin's a funny one for me. I don't dislike him as a person, and I don't subscribe to any of the culture war nonsense so I couldn't give a toss about his politics, his diet or his religious beliefs. Live and let live as far as I'm concerned. I've always just tried to base my opinions on him purely on a football level and in his case, what he delivered to Saints as manager. And I found him extremely frustrating in that respect. He clearly has his beliefs on how the game should be played, but I do find it odd in the extreme that having had his approach so ruthlessly exposed at the top level, he still comes across as having not even the slightest hint of doubt over whether he's got it completely right. It's good to have conviction, but you would think that 13 defeats in 16 games and getting sacked as a result would lead to a bit of soul-searching, but it doesn't appear that it has. That ties into the other thing I find bizarre about him, which is that he clearly would rather play beautifully and lose, than play ugly and win. I just can't compute that, as to me it clearly goes against the whole point of professional sport, where victory and winning is ultimately all that matters. Overall, my take on it is that he just isn't ruthless enough. I don't see that killer streak in him that real winners have. His approach to the game, the way he wants to be mates with his players, the whole 'beautiful and lovely' stuff he comes out with - I think it all points to a personal need that he has, which is to be liked. And the really, really top-level managers don't worry about being liked, they earn respect through their methods working and delivering success. They just want to win at all costs and act ruthlessly to achieve that. I'll be really interested to see what he does next, and how he gets on. I don't wish him any ill will, but I also don't think he'll ever be a successful manager at the very top level. I can see him getting another well-resourced team promoted, or maybe doing well in a minor foreign league, but unless he develops that win at all costs mentality then I think that will be his ceiling. Ultimately I can see him carving out a very nice career in the media, because I think he talks a far better game than he actually delivers.

You'll need @Lighthouse for that, I don't set the polls up

Really interesting, thanks very much for posting. Here's a summary of the key points/ stuff I found most interesting for those who don't have an hour to spend listening to it: Has turned down some jobs Was hurt and disappointed by the sacking Felt that at the point he was sacked the young players were growing, the foundation was there in the playing style that had been implemented, and that things were improving, even though the results weren't there Felt that the players were still with him 'People only care about results' Feels there's too much short-termism generally Thought that maybe the promotion would have been enough to buy him more time in the PL even when the results weren't there. Thought that maybe the club would stick with him even if we went back down, the way Burnley stuck with Dyche Had to deal with a lot of players leaving, but the expectations were still there to win every week like it had been in the Championship Became difficult when the players felt they were performing at the top of their abilities, they were doing well in games but weren't able to get wins There was fear there because half the squad had been relegated previously and half the squad had never played in the PL before - he became unable to convince them they could win games Just before half-time against Spurs he thought the time was up and needed the toilet Knew at half-time he was getting sacked that night, and told the players that. Told them not to let it get to eight or nine, just to dig in and defend Admires the way Ange Postecoglou watches the game with detachment Was told by Sibley at FT against Spurs, just before doing the media duties, that the sacking statement had been written. Did the presser and then was sacked immediately after His dad had done prison time and used to knock his mum about. He used to have to protect his younger brothers from him (note: there's a lot of stuff about his family background which I won't type out but is interesting to listen to) Never felt like he was a good player, never felt he was the best at any level. Had imposter syndrome Paul Lambert was the most influential coach he played under Really admires Pete Winkleman for moving MK Dons to Milton Keynes When he first became manager of MK Dons (having been a player there) in his first meeting as manager he said 'I'm your mate, still call me Russ if you want' Struggled at first with players treating him differently when he became their manager having been their teammate Favourite ever team to watch was the 2008 Barcelona team Couldn't coach a team or style he didn't believe in Swansea told him he got the manager's job there because of the style of play Felt like a traitor leaving MK Dons manager job for Swansea 4 days before the start of the season, wasn't sure about taking it The way he had them playing in his last 10 games at Swansea got him the Saints job - 'it was beautiful' His approach is very based on feeling and intuition Used to do Buddhist chanting when rooming with colleagues Not really religious but believes in the Buddhist principles like karma Feels like sometimes it helps players open up to him 'which is beautiful', but that sometimes it complicates things because they show him more than they maybe usually would to their manager Found it very difficult leaving 6-7 players out of the squad at Saints because the squad was too big Thinks he's very demanding on the training pitch, but once training is done he wants to be having a laugh and a joke with them in the canteen afterwards Saints job came about when Swansea didn't provide clarity on the plan for the future Got approached by 3-4 clubs Was approached by Wilcox, immediately felt very aligned with him from day one It was a thorough interview, Wilcox was very clear what he wanted him to present on Didn't think he was initially Saints first choice Wilcox time at City made him very aligned re style of play Wilcox told him which players were being sold and asked him how we would work with the rest Proud of the way the players reacted to the change of style in the Championship after relegation Lost 4 games on the bounce in the Championship when the transfer window was still open and there was still a lot of uncertainty about which players were going to stay and which would leave Started off first coaching session at Swansea by showing them how MK Dons had played in and out of possession Run and press, hunt the ball, be brave and you'll maximise your potential as a player At Saints, first showed how Swansea had played To dominate the ball you have to press high and counter-press The results didn't come in the PL for Saints - but Saints have now changed manager and it hasn't improved If he had the chance again, would he change anything - no, but might tweak a few things Felt he changed formation too much, was searching for something It's not about set patterns, its about having a concept of the game Felt he over-thought it when he started changing shapes and formations Guardiola was very complimentary Should have stuck with one system There were lots of brilliant moments, felt like there was always one moment very close Won't criticise the quality of players he had at Saints, loves those boys Felt the squad was weaker in the Premier League than it was in the Championship - lost some very key players Re Dibling - he is the most talented player he has ever worked with He has every capability and tool required to play for England for a long time He has qualities that he hasn't seen in an English player for a long time In the same bracket as Kane or Maddison at that age He'll play centrally, as an 8 or 10 eventually Played him as a false 9 in pre-season, should have played him there He needs to be in the right environment and the right style of play to thrive Everyone at the club told him that Dibling was the one to watch He had to learn how to do the running side, without the ball, that's why he wasn't put in the side strightaway His best trait is how carefree he is, he is incredibly relaxed He is an incredible talent Adam Lallana massively rates him He lifts the crowd as soon as he gets the ball, hope that doesn't get coached out of him He's a lovely lad, needs the right coach to get the best out of him On management style - after five years, he is happy that he is authentic and very clear on what he wants If anything, has become more extreme about what he is looking for Needs to do everything he can to show people that it can work, and not just with the best players Now he's had a taste of the Premier League, wants to get back there. Feels he can compete Without being conceited, feels he is a decent coach Feels he has lots to learn and lots of ways to improve Players don't remember a 1-0 win away at Scunthorpe, they remember how you made them feel, they want to feel connected to something Would love to have the chance to do pre-season somewhere Saints would have felt different if he had the chance to have the foundation of pre-season with a settled squad Is aware that he has limited his job options by the way he plays Very open to going abroad Dream is to manage at the highest level, in the Champions League, playing our way and winning Overall: I have been a big critic of his but I thought he came across well in that. Whether you think he's a good manager or not, he's intelligent and articulate and generally quite likeable. He didn't have nearly as much of the arrogance or defensiveness that was coming in when he was under pressure. I still find it mad that he genuinely seems to believe that style of play is ultimately more important than results, but I suppose we'll see who is right on that by whether he keeps getting jobs. He doesn't really express any regret about how he approached things at Saints, with the exception of saying that if anything, he should have stuck more rigidly to his beliefs and not started chopping and changing formations. I can see why a lot of his players like him, he still feels to me like a footballer talking, rather than a manager. It's pretty obvious that he loves feeling like one of the boys. I wonder if he'll realise that he probably needs to step away from that to be a truly successful manager. The stuff about Dibling is very interesting. I think we're all expecting him to go, but if a manager came in who he immediately clicked with, and who played a style that he felt suited him, it would be interesting to see if that made a difference. I suspect however that that will simply be more of a consideration for him when he's picking which club he goes to next.

For those wanting Cooper, I’ve not seen his odds shorter than 16/1 anywhere, and haven’t read any stories seriously linking him. If that story is correct and we’ve narrowed the shortlist down to three already, then two are obviously Rohl and Rosenior but I’m not at all convinced the third is Cooper. Lampard, Dyche and Chris Davies are all being offered at shorter odds by most of the aggregators which take into account multiple different bookies. Cooper’s not really in the serious mix at all.

Blindly trying to implement a style of play without being able to see that your players aren't good enough to play it doesn't make you a good manager, it makes you a shit one. Good managers adapt, find a way to win and carve success out of what they've got, not what they wish they had.

Now we're relegated and nothing matters, if we get any more points this season can we choose to carry them over into next season instead, give ourselves a head start?