SaintBobby

Southampton till I die Southampton till I die I know I am I'm sure I am Southampton till I die (repeat)

Right...and you're the same bloke who said with "absolute confidence" that we would go into admin in the first week of February. And then said you were proven right! Please just go away. Nothing to see her, people....

Right...and you're the same bloke who said with "absolute confidence" that we would go into admin in the first week of February. And then said you were proven right! Please just go away. Nothing to see her, people....

We could ground share with Eastleigh, surely? (capacity c. 3,000)

AFC Southampton 100%. Absolutely no question. Completely hope it doesn't come to that - but I'd probably become an even more fanatical Saints fan if it did. Guess you only realize how precious something is when you lose it - or are on the verge of losing it...

It was emphatically not proven correct. You didn't put your money where your mouth was and didn't take me up on the bet I offered. Simply saying "X is going to happen" when X looks a measurable possibility - and being out by 2 months is not impressive. Your information was nonsense and your source unreliable. The fact that you were not willing to bet a single penny on it indicates that you didn't believe it either. If I predict that Mr. Y - a very eldery person - will die on 1st May 2008, I am not accurate if he finally drops dead in July. Pathetic self-justification from a fantasist IMHO.

Reinforces my basic case then...

I don't understand what the campaign is..... What specifically is being advocated?

Honestly couldn't comment on the legalities on fraud etc., but my central point of naggigng concern is that the stadium is actually worth far, far less than the mortgage on it (that's even more the case if the mortgage is at 8.5%) I'm sure there's SOME value in possible student housing or redevelopment - but nothing like £23m IMHO. Were we to default on the mortgage, strikes me that Aviva would have to flog SMS for a lot, lot, less than £23m.

Agree with your first point, although I guess this means teh pressure on the Football League will not be v supportive of us....

Lengthy report from Gary Cotterill on SSN. Precis follows: The meeting at SMS has broken up - some members joined the meeting remotely (Lowe is in London). SLH has gone into administration (although he also wrongly used the word "liquidation" a few times). Press conference with the administrators expected tomorrow afternoon. Rupert Lowe appears to have "cleverly dodged" the 10 point penalty (also went on to describe Lowe as a very clever and astute businessman who has seen this loophole and gone for it!!!). League yet to 100% confirm that the 10 point penalty will not apply. Likely to provoke fury from other clubs - and from Ken Bates. Noted the Derby County precedent.

I'm only hypothesising - and it would, of course, require us to go into administration....

Semi-seriously...(although with the emphasis on semi)...does anyone know if Eastleigh's Silverlake stadium can legally host League One games? Or whether it could be rendered fit for such a purpose? I see their record attendance is just over 3,000 (for a game vs Saints in July 2006) If capacity could be increased over the Summer - to say 9,000 with some temporary stands..... Like I say, emphasis on "semi" rather than "serious"...

I'm not sure Aviva's negotiating hand is very strong though. They might just have to accept we can't repay £23m. And the problem for them is that the asset they are inheriting is worth nowhere near £23m. Point taken that it may be worth more than £1m for potential property development - but certainly nowhere near £23m. It still seems to me that Aviva would probably have to sell it on to "AFC Saints" for massively less than £23m.

Slight impression I'm getting (from media reports) is that we may have a bit longer than I first feared to sort this out. SLH statement says we couldn't continue over a twelve month period. The bloke on SSN thought we needed to find a buyer in the Summer.

Posted (a version of) this elsewhere - would welcome thoughts: SLH defaults on the mortgage on SMS (this seems to be the overwhelming part of our debt) and hands over the keys to Norwich Union (unclear on timing - probably when we have our last three games out of the way). The debt is written off, SLH wound up and Norwich Union have a pretty useless asset on their hands - the only possible buyer being a sports club in Southampton with many thousands of supporters. A "reborn" Southampton Football Club then buys back the stadium for a song. The bulk of the existing SLH debt ends up being shouldered by NU's shareholders. Saints are reborn (probably in League One) with v limited debt round our necks.

SKY SPORTS NEWS reporting the story now. Seem to think SLH £27m in debt. But also said that St. Mary's was built in 2005, the year we were relegated.

I think the rules say something about honouring all football debts. Printers, caterers, builders and decorators might not get their money, but Notts County surely will....no?

I don't like the plc structure, but would be an irony if it does save us from a 10 point penalty. The stadium thing bewilders me. I just can't get my head around the economics of it. If I default on my mortgage, the C&G take possession and there are literally thousands of potential buyers for my flat. It's probably a bit of a pain for C&G, but the safety/security they have is that they can get a decent, market-rate-ish price for the property. I can't see how this is the case for Norwich Union and SMS. If they take possession, who the heck are they going to sell it to. The place is basically worthless other than to a sports team based in Southampton with thousands and thousands of supporters. So can't a "reborn" Southampton FC rebuy SMS for some nominal fee? Say £1m? And Norwich Union end up just having to write off the debt? I can imagine a Mexican stand-off developing, but ultimately the stadium is pretty damned worthless to NU in a way that my flat isn't to Cheltenham & Gloucester.

Is that true? The ST cash would have just disappeared down the toilet?

I'm no Luvvie, but there would be a delicious irony if this is true. And no last laugh for Rupes as his shares will be worth sod all.

Thinking aloud here - but wonder if this is part of the loophole. Desperately clutching at straws...but.... Could SLH tell Norwich Union "Sorry, we can't keep up our mortgage payments, here are the keys for the ground. It's all yours." NU then have a white elephant on their hands. They rent the stadium back to the club for the remaining 3 games. £23m of debt cleared....

On the face of it, this does look like a pretty narrow and dubious loophole, but I don't speak as a business analyst or sports lawyer. It just "feels" like a desperate last throw of the dice. That said, Lowe et al may have secured sound legal advice or even discussed the matter with the Football League. I wouldn't bet my life on that, but i wouldn't rule it out either. I think our case can be distinguished from Leeds United's. We seem to be trying to avoid the penalty altogether, whereas Leeds deliberately took the penalty only when they were certain to be relegated. To that extent, they were only really punished once.

I have. And have suggested a cost-cutting measure in these troubled times would be to close the official website.

It is pitiful. If you can't even cover major news about yourself, your website is pretty redundant. Even just something saying "Trading in SLH shares has been suspended. A statement will be issued at 11am". FFS.