SaintBobby

Great result. Good performance after a shaky start. Onwards. I still think the team selection was absurd. We went out from about 7/4 to nearly 3/1 to win in 90 mins when the team was announced. Credit to winning against the favourites, but…hmmm…

The fair play thing was mental. I seem to vaguely remember we could have got into the InterToto cup if, on the last day of the season, we picked up one fewer yellow cards than Sheffield Wednesday. We had nothing else to play for. As it happens, I think it was rendered moot because we had decided not to apply to the InterToto anyway.

Appreciate the matchs and stats help! Burnley are now odds against for the drop. Maybe they'll make it. Like us, they've had a shedload of draws, which isn't enormously helpful for a club's points total, but does indicate you're competitive.

I think I get the point you're driving at, but I'm not grasping it wholly. Leeds have a 23% chance of being relegated. This is made up of a 2% chance they are relegated with Newcastle and Everton and a 21% chance that they are relegated with one or neither of Newcastle and Everton, and a 77% chance they aren't relegated at all. If I'm not right on this, what is the 23% made up of?

Given how calcified the legaue is and how hard it is for Saints to break into the top 6, then shouldn't winning a cup be our absolute prioirty (assuming we are no longer perennial relegation battlers?). If so, what would such a strategy look like?

Hmmm. Not sure that's right, is it? The odds/percentages presumably reflect the fact that 3 teams - no more and no less - will be relegated? If Leeds are, say, 23% to be relegated...it's kind of priced in that two other teams go down with them, no? It's not "well, they're a 23% chance to be relegated...but if Watford are relegated, they are only a 17% chance, if Villa are relegated they are only a 12% chance etc etc".

If that site is right, there’s a 63% that one of those 3 will be relegated, but only a 2% chance that all 3 will be.

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation. It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

I think it was more personal than that. “Lost the dressing room” etc (same with Pardew back in the day, but let’s not go there!)

7th is nearly impossible, I agree. I have just put £40 on us finishing top 10 though - and just before Leicester lost too (I got just better than evens).

The relegation picture is start to get quite interesting. I still think it will be Burnley, Norwich and Watford...but there are four or five other teams involved.

Two goals in a minute for Leeds. Leeds 2-2 Man Utd.

Thanks. Back to the drawing board.

Thanks. That does seem a long shot, but not utterly, insanely unlikely. The League Cup final is Liverpool v Chelsea, so that is certainly going to go to a club who have qualified for Europe anyway. (unless you think Liverpool or Chelsea could drop out of the top 7!) Assuming we don't win the FA Cup ourselves, we don't need it to be won by Man City - just by any team in the top 7 (say, Man City or Liverpool or Chelsea or quite possibly Spurs or West Ham). That sounds like heavy odds on to me. (Maybe 1/3 or 1/4 ?) So, if Man Utd win the Champions League but end up 5th or below, then 8th is almost certainly a Euro qualification slot. With the bookies, they are about 20/1 to win the Champions League and about 1/2 to be 5th or below. (although these aren't really independent variables...if they find good eneough form to win the UCL, it's more likely they are in good enough form to finish top 4, surely?). Add to this a miniscule chance (150/1) that Chelsea win the UCL but somehow drop out of the top 4. My current conclusion (until I realise I have got something wrong here) is it's about 40/1 or 50/1 that 8th place gets Euro qualification this year. I'm guessing it's about those odds in any given future year too.

Blimey, this is even more complicated than trying to work out NFL play-off qualification and seedings. I think it's a moot point this season, as there are no English teams left in the Europa League, right? However, have I understood this correctly....in future seasons, 8th could get you into the Europa Conference League if the following two events both occur: 1. An English team wins the Europa League and/or the Champions League but finishes outside the top 4 - that leads to 5 English teams in the UCL, two in EL and 1 in EC. 2. The domestic cups are won by teams in the top 7. This still leaves me the headcahe of what happens if - on top of all that - an English team wins the Europa Conference (which gives Europa League qualification the next season, right?) and finishes 8th in the Premier League - would this lead to 5 CL teams, 3 EL teams and 1 EC team from England the next season? In which case, is there a highly obscure way in which even 9th place might get an EC slot?

Okay first half. Really good second. Was a bit worried at the start of the second half for a few mins, then we coasted it. Hard to look up or down the league and see much that affects us just now. Put all our chips on the cup, surely?

Because we can catch Brighton and won’t be caught by Burnley?

Back in the day, there was some way to come 8th and qualify, no? Didn’t we achieve it or am I misremembering?

But given it’s Chelsea v Liverpool, the winner be in the champions league anyway.

Ok, yes I appreciate this is a long shot for Saints, but I’m trying to understand the pathways to qualifying for Europe. Am I right that the following is the situation: Top 4 into Champions League - unless by a quirk the CL winner is English and finishes 5th or lower in the league, in which case top 3 into CL along with the CL holders. The next league position (almost certainly 5th) into the Europa League. FA cup winners into Europa League, but no slot for the runners up. If the Cup winners have qualified for Europe by other means then their slot goes to the next highest league team (probably the 6th place finishers). The next best placed league team (probably 7th) into the Europa Conference League. No qualification via the League Cup anymore. I can’t figure out any feasible means by which the 8th placed team gets into Europe - but I may have missed something. (Do we get five CL slots if the Europa League winners finish outside the top 4 in the EPL?)

On re listening to the interview, I was struck by how honest & clear he was. There was a sprinkling of corporate gobbledegook (apparently it’s vital that everyone from the receptionist to the tea lady to JWP and Ralph all “talk the same way” or some such like?!) However, I usually find it meaningless when club’s talk about their own culture and philosophy and approach. Is there really a discernible QPR or Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest “way”? Most clubs are not really that discernibly different. They operate in a similar fashion and are about as distinguishable as different Wetherspoon pubs. There may be differences - but not that amount to anything philosophical or deep. Seemens though persuaded me that Saints may really have a unique and thoroughgoing approach that really does mark us out. The reason I’m so intrigued about the “next manager” puzzle isn’t because that person will actually be the next manager - they almost certainly won’t. But if we knew the identity of the bloke, it would help bring a little more clarity to how Saints think in football terms.

Actually, MS says the manger came in "this year or the end of last year" - suggesting he's maybe talking calendar years not seasons...so that sounds like Howe?

V interesting interview. Am not sure if he means Frank or Lage, but feel sure it's one or other.

The idea is very Moneyball. I think it means you can compare the final score with the xG and work out whether you got lucky/unlucky. I can see how it might affect firing a manager - six defeats in a row where xG says you should have won 3 or 4 of them might be “bad luck” rather than a sackable offence, I guess. What I still can’t work out though is what is luck and what is skill. If your xG is, say, 1.2 per game but you are averaging 2.5 goals is this sheer luck or a reflection that your skilful strikers are bloody brilliant at converting chances?

Anyone watching the Chelsea v Palmeiras game? God, it’s dire.