buctootim

Ireland is a nett contributor to the EU.

Exactly. Things like sanctions or asset freezes seem like abstract issues unrelated to daily life for many people. Half of the high street closing down and everyday products disappearing from the supermarket is a sign that isnt ignored.

Is that what he keeps in the bag? 😲 View Discount

Those arent the only two options though. The US is currently negotiating with Venezuala and Saudi about boosting output, Germany can retain nuclear for a bit longer, you can build more storage so not as reliant on constant supplies - and you can cap costs using taxpayers money until this war and the volatility is over.

Totally. "Do the right thing unless there are any disadvantages, in which case don't". In another life he'd be happily working for Putin.

Totally. "Do the right thing unless there are any disadvantages, in which case don't". In another life he'd be happily working for Putin.

Two sentences not a single accurate claim. Congrats Eastern Ukraine is mostly populated by ethnic Russian Ukrainians. You know them. They're the people who are fighting to the death the Russian invaders in Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kherson. You know Mariupol right? the birthplace of Zelensky the ethnic Russian Jewish President - you think a Jewish President with Jewish PM is going to have a neo Nazi battalion leading the Ukrainian army? seriously? Yes 14,000 have died in the Donbass - the vast majority killed by the Russian funded and equipped 'rebels' aka Russian army officers leading paid insurgents. OSCE can confirm that for you Coup? Surely you mean the massive self inflicted fuck up by Putin, yep yet another one, where he tried to poison the pro Europe Presidential candidate? The irony is Putin's puppet would have won if it wasnt for the poisoning - which caused a massive upsurge in support for him and he won the reun. Poor old psychopathic Pootie. Messed up again.

Thats true. I don't want to go all Top Trumps about it but a group of something like Germany France and UK would defeat Russia, assuming no nukes involved.

Thats without even discussing the the disparity in quality. Also we are something like 4th or 5th in terms of military size behind Turkey, Germany, France and maybe Italy.

As one of the Ukrainian ministers said - Russia doesnt have a powerful army, just a huge one. They will win against Ukraine because its smaller with inferior tech but NATO would obliterate them in short order.

All fair comments. I just think the Ukrainians have been drawn into the worst possible situation through no fault of their own - screwed by both sides. They will probably end up with no freedom, a ruined economy, friends family killed and their houses destroyed. I was texting a friend earlier. She left Kyiv and is hiding out in Carpathian mountains terrified. She says its now almost impossible to get from there to Poland or Slovakia. Ethnic Russian family, she left her Russian born Grandad behind in Kyiv because he wouldnt leave but can barely walk or get out to buy food, even if there is any. She says their high rise apartment building has been hit three times. Not sure how a medical student and her ex Red Army conscript grandad deserve any of that in 2022.

Actually they pretty much were, but we'll let that pass.

His administration used to say stuff that contradicted what they said last week, on the basis that most people wouldnt remember or care. Now they contradict themselves within the same speech, and Russians still dont seem to care. Its turbocharged gaslighting, scarily revealing about what you can get away with.

The far right in Ukraine is tiny - less than 2% of the vote ast the last election - far less than places like Germany, France or Italy. Yanukovych got elected on a platform of taking Ukraine into the EU and once he was elected accepted a $1 billion bribe from Putin to bring Ukraine back into the Russian orbit. It was a genuinely popular coup against a betrayal in 2014. But the process of enticing Ukraine away without protecting them from the consequences, absolutely agree.

The talk with Sir John Sawers I linked above is worth 30 minutes. On sanctions and domestic pressure for political change he drew a parallel with South Africa and the fact it took 12 years to start to work.

Omens aren't good are they? We encouraged the Ukrainians to think they could be in the EU and NATO, we encouraged them to dump the Russia led economic equivalents of the EU and NATO, we sold them arms, promised them support, and when they eventually got invaded said "sorry, too risky, on yer own mate"

This is an interesting analysis of Putin / Russia / Ukraine by former head of MI6 at Oxford Union .

Two reasons. 1. Its cheaper to hedge against price volatility than pay for storage hoping the price increases in the future and 2 most importantly - oil companies need new constant supply to replace the oil used yesterday, today and tomorrow. Its not like gold or bitcoin.

Not sure what your point is. Oil demand is the same, supply is the same. Some companies are avoiding Russian oil but others dont care - especially if its cheaper.

Those numbers arent credible - especially given how comparatively few incidents / successes there were. Its like claiming there were 200,000 people involved in the NI troubles and they went on from 1967 - 2022.

Everyone knows that hoary old story. There were very specific and exceptional circumstances around that - and Finland still lost 25,000 men and a big chunk of land.

Maybe 20,000 not 200,000. And it stopped pretty quickly because people got killed and imprisoned - just like Putin does now.

Nope. Not so long ago oil was $50 per barrel, now its about $115. Russia is having to discount its oil by around $15 per barrel to sell it - but that still means they are earning way more than they did before the war inflated the price. Ditto gas, roughly three times the price now compared with before. Sanctions will have a long term effect IF they are adhered to and kept up, but right now Putin is minting it no matter what the DE say.

Agree Bosnia is a maybe - but I do think he'll try and rekindle conflict there by proxy.

How much freedom fighting / terrorism was there after Soviet invasion of Poland, Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia etc. How many bombs going off in Georgia? How long do you think Finland's 3,000 strong army plus conscripts would last?