PokingFun

Yes HTH

Every season is a tough season. This is the Premier League. If anyone thinks it will be easy then they are mistaken. At the moment we are slightly weakened but it does seem that the board are on the case with the new additions and some of Guan's comments. Trouble is at this time of year every team is looking for quality and / or trying to secure best buy / sell price / player terms etc. It really is not as simple to get talent as people presume.

I guarantee that if this deal does not go ahead there will be a wave of further neggativity sweeping the forum from Alpine and his glass half empty soldiers. Like MLG omeletting things develop between now and the end of the transfer window and hope that we end up with a cracking squad rather than a load of lame ducks.

I think a lot of people forget that players and managers probably see their football careers as no different to how people in other walks of life see their own careers. If opportunities come along, then they assess whether such opportunity provides an enhancement to their life and decide accordingly. Personally, I have no problem at all with that as it is simply life. If MP is not approached by another club with a better offer than we can match either financially or from a quality perspective then I suspect he will stay. If he does get a better offer he will go. If Spurs go for someone else and he stays then that is fine as it is his job and he strikes me as a person that is committed to his job. Does that mean he will stay forever and turn down better offers in the future? No, of course not. Fans are quick enough to 'sack the manager' in times of trouble but cannot expect said managers to hang around if better is available to them in their field. It's the way things work.

I'm not disputing that we have done plenty right. Far from it. My point is despite doing plenty right we still finished 23 points behind the top 4. That is a huge gap to fill if the ambition is Champions League football. Inevitably, when a club has a season like that then bigger clubs become interested in your players and regardless of what NC says I find it impossible to believe that every player that attracts attention from the biggest clubs will simply say 'you know what, Nicola is right, I can achieve my ambitions here' Sadly, out of those 'at least' 4-5 players that attract the attention of big clubs, I would say that at least half would want to leave and maybe more because we cannot a) provide immediate access to trophy winning potential, and b) match the insane wages that come with playing for the big clubs. I would be astonished, but delighted, if AL and LS stay at Saints given the interest in them, even if MP stays at the club. Unfortunately, I doubt they will though. Just have a look at the Premier League sides that have won the Champions League or won the Premier League and then tell me if those sides have not spent vast amounts (almost certainly beyond £200m net) to achieve those goals.

I think the problem is that whilst accepting that we cannot compete with the biggest teams financially and concentrating on small gains, the sum of those small gains on the pitch is never going to bridge the huge gap required between them and a club of our size to make it into the Champions League. This is where Cortese's 'vision' fails dramatically. After all, people have largely accepted this season as being our best ever in the Premier League yet we are still a monstrous 23 points behind the 4th placed team. Do we believe that we could bridge that gap over the next couple of seasons by keeping all of our players and spending £30m per season? It is a lovely idea but is pure fantasy. Spurs lost their best player and spent £100m and didn't achieve it despite buying some players considered very good at the time of purchase. Who is to say we can spend better than them? At some point players like Shaw and Lallana would realise that the 'vision' is more of a dream and an unlikely reality so would go if they want to play for a club capable of challenging for premier league and european titles. Nicola Cortese can speak all he likes about trying to win the Premier League and making the Champions League as a by-product of that 'shoot for the stars' mentality but the reality is very different and I suspect he realised that and probably asked the owners to fund something more than was viable from operating a sustainable business model. Make no mistake, the only way a club of our size makes the Champions League or wins the Premier League is if the owner wants to splash sums of say £200-500m, maybe more, to have a tilt at it. Small gains on or off the pitch will never be enough to make it happen. Only serious money that the owner is willing to lose will and rarely is that available for a club of our stature. Personally, if players want to go then sell them for top dollar and reinvest that money in the playing squad by buying quality and not quantity. Keep producing the quality through the academy, it makes sense to do so. But lets be realistic and not believe Cortese when he says all players would have stayed had he been at the club. He would have had no say in that if the owner wanted to sell players and to be honest bar getting top dollar if the player wants to go he has little say either when a big club comes calling.

I really cannot agree with the sentiments above at all other than I will say Cortese has overseen a period of relative success for us. Do you really believe that as a result of NC remaining in charge that the media and other clubs would sit back and say, 'you know what, that Cortese is one nasty **** so I will leave Saints' players alone?' Of course not. What has happened is that we have seen our players improve so much under MP that the top clubs are now looking at them and thinking they are worth signing. At the end of the season before this, Lallana was nowhere near showing the form he is now and as a consequence was not attracting attention from clubs bigger than us. Luke Shaw was still very raw and inexperienced and although it could be seen he had serious talent, he was probably not seen as being ready to step up as a top 4 full back. He is now so therefore is a wanted man, particularly given some big clubs have a weakness in his position. J-Rod had struggled a little bit to find his feet and wasn't even on the radar of other clubs. Morgan might have been subject of some interest but nothing concrete it seems that mind blowing offers would be made and so on. Now it is different because we have players who top teams believe can hit the ground running and improve them immediately which was not the case when NC was in charge. In fact, the only time a big team came with an offer that tested NC seriously + the player wanted the move was for Oxo. As it happened, we sold him so where was the famous NC steel then? For me, all this stuff about CL ambition was a big red herring. The players were not here to fulfil that ambition. They were here because we wanted them and could offer better football, money etc at the time than someone else was prepared to offer. That has now changed because of some relative premier league success which inevitably attracts other clubs. As far as the media goes, NC did not dictate to the media or protect us from them and agents, the simple facts were that the media were less interested in us last year than now because the big clubs that make news were less interested in us than now. It is all a simple matter of timing. If we are to be run as a sustainable club then sadly we will not be able to compete with the big clubs for players. That means when we are successful, players and managers will leave. It is nothing to do with who is at the helm. All we can ask is that we try as best we can to keep our best players and improve the team within the confines of our relative financial position. If a player wants to go, or the manager for that matter, all we can ask is that the board achieve the highest possible price opposition teams will pay and then reinvest that money in the best possible way.

I think FFP has a big bearing on why owners might not want to spend big without the backup of the commercial revenue. After all, when they spend big (E.g. Man City and Chelsea) it is usually because they want to win competitions, often the Champions League, and attract the best players. Therefore, there is no point in spending big and getting there if they then have to cut cloth (due to FFP constraints) and are unable to sustain the 'lifestyle' without sanctions being imposed by UEFA. That wouldn't make any sense to me at all.

This summer is clearly going to be quite a pivotal one for Saints but a dose of realism needs to come into play about what represents the board being 'ambitious' or not. For example, let's say Spurs (or any other big club for that matter) come along and offer MP £75k+ per week, £100m transfer kitty and the opportunity of managing a team that can push for trophies and European football then I would suggest that it will be very difficult for Southampton to match not just financially but also in terms of likely progress on the pitch. We have had a fantastic time recently with multiple promotions and also a highest ever points total in the Premier League but from now on every extra point over and above this season's achievments becomes more and more difficult both financially and from a playing point of view. Moving onto the players. If any top 4 type clubs come in with huge offers for our players and can offer opportunity to win trophies, European football and an even better chance of international recognition with England then I suspect the majority would take it. Saints simply cannot match the financial and consistent playing quality muscle of the big clubs. It would take enormous spending by KL to break into the top 4 for example and the FFP stance now does not allow owners to do it. Why spend well over your budget on your 'toy' if UEFA / FIFA / PL etc stifle the chance of winning big competitions by fining / eliminating you from competitions. It does not make sense for a club like us to go down that road. In my eyes, so long as the board offer the very most they can afford to keep our manager and top players at the club, plus do the very best job they can to build a compelling case that we can compete in the PL for a sustained period then that is good enough for me. Sadly, I do not think we will ever be in a position to keep players like Adam Lallana and Luke Shaw for a sustained period of time, assuming they like money and are ambitious from a football perspective in terms of honours, as we can never give such players the best chance of achieving both. Generally, top players want to play at the very best level that they can, probably for the best contract they can, and I do not see Saints fulfilling that opportunity without spending the sort of money that Man City and Chelsea have (which obviously isn't going to happen). I would like to see us keep everyone and add quality to the squad to push on but if we do not and have offered the best we can and done the best we can to sell the benefits of staying then that is fine. If manager and players then still want to go then that is equally fine so long as the board then does strive to get the best financial deal possible from any sales and ensure that the money is reinvested in the squad as actively and sensibly as possible.

In an ideal world yes it would be great to sign players and get the business done early but if we are to improve our squad it is very likely that we will need to sign players that will be playing at the WC. I am pretty sure that most clubs will want to keep their players at this stage as a very good WC adds £ms onto price tags and a players wages potential from the player's perspective. There is rarely too much movement early in a window anyway without a WC so I simply cannot see business being doen early unless we are to revert back to signing squad players which would be a big mistake. Yes, there are some players from countries that might not be playing in the WC and there is always The Championship but players from there that are good enough to improve surely must be the exception. I am buckling in tight for a summer of whining and moaning about lack of activity in the transfer market to be honest as expect nothing to be done until July. If we get MP signed up again on an improved contract then that would be success before July in my opinion.

For me this would be an excellent front 3 with a bit of everything in their locker between them. Sturridge leading the line and the other two playing slightly deeper and doing the defensive work as and when required. It would be a modern set-up assuming Roy can find the right balance of the 3 midfielders that will play behind them. Gerrard obviously is one of them and the other two spots very much up for grabs imo.

Football has become so precious these days. A guy makes a genuine mistake in his work and gets utterly villified for it by armchair fans and TV pundits alike when a simple TV replay would have enabled the officials to make the correct decision and avoid all the nonsense spouted since. Of course, fans and pundits never make mistakes in their work so cannot possibly give the benefit of the doubt in these instances. All the talk of not wanting the guy refereeing our game and / or getting a 'suspension' from the game itself are quite laughable. It seems that on here there is never a referee good enough for Saints as they are all clearly against us ......

My feelings exactly. Funnily enough I actually think our transfer strategy in terms of rarely using the January window much at all other than to ship people out is a pretty good policy. Just look at the teams of similar standing that have bought loads of players over the last few years in the January window and it is clear that it is done out of pure panic. It is also noticeable that the plethora of signings has rarely done teams much good either. The likes of Cardiff, Fulham, Sunderland et al are simply going to bloat their squads and risk financial ruin in the process. Too much player turnover and lack of stability in clubs causes absolute chaos generally. I'm very pleased we have not to date adopted that policy or pandered to greedy fans wanting big money average signings NOW just becuase they need some excitement in the transfer window.

The amount of people on here moaning about a lack of activity is ridiculous. For a start shipping out players that cannot cut it at PL level is a very good thing. It keeps the financial situation in check and also means there should be some decent cash available for the summer window where prices are more reasonable than in January. Also, if someone can outline who has been realistically available at a reasonable price to improve us during January the that would be helpful. I cannot think of any clubs that would want to sell players in their squad of the quality we need to improve our first eleven. If you look at our league position it is abundantly clear that we are not going to finish above 8/9th place even if we bring in new faces of the right quality (not easy). We are also not going to be relegated or even remotely in danger of it so there is no pressure on us in that sense to strengthen right now. It would be madness to bring in some players for big money that have not been properly researched and evaulated just on the off chance that we might have a bit of a cup run. This season is now the perfect opportunity to take stock, give our good youngsters a taste of the Premier League and work on targets for the summer under no pressure at all. If we do a late deal that is right for the club then great. If not, no worries. We have Wanyama returning from injury and will have Lovren and Ramirez back for the last 10 games or so of the season. Our 'second string' showed they are more than capable of playing well against Arsenal on Tuesday night and deserve the opportunity to progress.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Loved the memory of those two goals. I was 11 and my brother 9 and a dirty plastic Liverpool fan at the time we were watching it on the old portable telly. We had a little scrap on the terraces (my bunk beds) and I got a whack from mother for my troubles. Two great goals from a great saints player of his time. Happy birthday Danny.

This just about sums it up for me. To me it is definitely not just about who goes to games and who does not. There are many people who are ardent fans that cannot go to games either due to commitments, cost, playing themselves etc but if you feel that kick in the guts that defeat brings and the incredible high that success brings whether it is a seasonal triumph or beating a supposed bigger team then you probably have the bug for your team. Of course there are different degrees of this also. The football club they support is some people's life, for others it is about a jolly with their mates, some just like the entertainment and some just go when their company offers a freebie. I'm sure there are loads of other reasons as well so the best way to be is to simply accept different people have different reasons for following a team and respect that accordingly.

It is interesting that the agent says the player has lost £1m in salary earnings after QPR failed with a bid in the summer. That suggests his wage demands are going to be at least £20k per week more than he earns at Celtic. Add to that the fact that his stock has risen somewhat in the last 12 months due to CL performances and also the Premier League now has the increased TV rights deal and you probably get a salary request in excess of £40k per week from the player even without the agents taking a bigger than average cut. This seems a lot of money to me for a defensive midfield player that the top 4 have clearly not seen as being good enough for them. Also, I'm guessing it would put him quite a bit above Morgan and others who do similar roles and there is no guarantee he is a better player so maybe the club are considering harmony within the squad when negotiating which is probably a good thing at this stage of the clubs development. I suspect this latest press report released by the agent is a tactic to get other clubs to offer more than we have to both the player and the agent (or to get us to up our offer by indicating other interest). In their eyes, a quick deal is not really in their interests so they will keep their options open until later in the window and hope they snare a better deal or if that doesn't happen that our deal remains on the table. A dangerous game for them but I suspect Celtic will be forced to sell regardless if the lad is in the last year or so of his contract so maybe not such a big gamble for them as we think. I suspect this one has a fair way to run yet.

TDD, have you compared their records in similar roles at all before coming to your conclusion? Do you not believe that given similar resources Nigel Adkins or any other competent manager could put a team together to do well in both the FA Cup and Champions League? If I told you that he only marginally improved Chelsea during his tenure even though he spent an additional £70m during his time at the club would you believe it? Thats basically what has happened. RDM has done a job at Chelsea that is no better than he should have been expected to do given their resources and players so what makes you believe he can improve Southampton when he clearly struggled at WBA under similar circumstances to our current plight? Teams like Chelsea are expected to win things with their resources, unfortunately for RDM his owners expectations are absolutely unreasonable and unrealistic as are your views on why you believe RDM would better NA results. You cannot simply say that he is a better manager because he won a couple of cups, one of them very luckily and not particularly down to tactical nous. Any of us could have put 11 men behind the ball against better teams and got lucky but they won the champions league purely because the opposition in the semi final and final chose to pick poor timing to squander golden chances. The only reason I can see for hiring RDM and removing NA is the fact that RDM has a little more premier league experience (he has managed in 36 more games in the PL). Players wont come here because RDM is in charge as it is the club, wage structure and pull of European football and success that attracts players, not the manager. For me, the extra experience RDM has got is not enough to make a change and be absolutely certain our results would improve so I'm in the sticking camp on this one. So, what are your reasons for thinking RDM is better? Do you seriously believe he is better because he won 2 cups with better resources available or do you think he materially improves teams at this level that he joins?

Your last point highlights why there is no comparison that can be made between NA and RDM. It's like comparing Lallana with Hazard given the vast resources RDM has at his disposal compared with what NA has available. A better comparison will be their managerial records at lower league clubs. Looks like similar records in L1 (in fact, NA is a little better, however, he will have had bigger resources than MKD but less at Scunny). In the PL with WBA he was sacked after 25 games with a 28% win record which is better than NA at the moment however it is fair to say we can't really judge either manager on such a small sample size. RDM has done a decent enough job at Chelsea though so that extra experience may give him the edge but surely NA could have done a decent job at Chelsea as well given the vast resources available. Winning 2 cups is clearly good, but he did have a huge slice of luck to win the Champions League having been completely outplayed by teams in the knockout stages. All in all, for now, we should definitely give NA the opportunity to carry on his work as there are signs of improvement and so far our record against teams in the lower half of the table is starting to look alright with many games against mid-lower table teams to come. FWIW, I think RDM has been harshly treated at Chelsea as their squad depth is nothing like that of Man U and Man C, however, the same thinking would apply in my mind if NA was removed and RDM came in. It would be harsh to say the least and there would be no guarantee that RDM would deliver better results either.

I don't see too many people getting "excited" about the Swansea performance but it was more encouraging from a general defensive point of view (other than the obvious individual error). Also, I felt that we played well enough to keep their dangerous players pretty quiet. You say they are utterly poor but this is a team that drew with Chelsea the week before and are firmly entrenched in mid-table so they're not really that poor. We must have played well enough to some degree to make them look poor or is it a case that when we do alright the opposition is poor rather than giving some credit to our team. As far as West Ham is concerned they have had a great start to the season and are disciplined and well organised but they will end up bottom half of the table as they will not sustain their form and at some stage will endure games where they don't score. I doubt we could overhaul them, but at the moment I don't care about that as 17th would be fine from my perspective (given where we are) and it would give an opportunity to build on the 1st season back. If we can finish higher then that would be a great bonus. Its a long season TDD and we are not even 1/3 of the way through yet so drawing comparisons between us and West Ham is not really of much use to us. We might overhaul them but very likely wont as the start we've had will be difficult to turn around. Also, we won't play like them because we have a chairman that wants us to play a different style to a team like West Ham regardless of whether its more effective or not. It really doesn't matter what they do, it will be what we do for the remainder of the season that will count.

I find it quite astonishing how people can highlight the end of the season as being an issue. If there were issues off the field then it certainly had no effect on our efforts on the pitch as we were only outclassed by Blackpool in the run-in when arguably had we scored in the first 20 minutes when we had some good possession and a penalty miss it may have been a completely different game. So, what do we class as "end of season"? Last 6 games? Last 12 games? Last 18 games? We picked up 10 points from our last 6 games and in that run I felt we had some very bad luck against both Portsmouth and Boro which made the difference between picking up another couple of points. 12 points would have been a good return from 6 fixtures. Prior to that we picked up 13 points in the previous 6 games and 14 points in the 6 games prior to that. The fact is that over the last third of the season we established a sound and regular pattern of form that was better than everyone bar Reading. I can never understand why people suggest our "form" tailed off at the end of the season. Most exceptionally good betting analysts will suggest that "form" takes place over a longer period than 6 games and they are right. We see very often a team have short term variance in their results (either good or bad) only to revert back to type. Our last 6 games was slightly worse than our "usual" form and could be explained easily by a bit of misfortune in the same way that we had a bit of good fortune in games like Leeds etc. The fact is the team got promoted and that last 6 games was nothing to do with off field disharmony in any way whatsover. Anyone that watched the games properly and understands variance can occur over a short term will understand this.

So much for a reading confidence boost from a strong side then eh?

Do you think are going to get relegated TDD?

You haven't really answered my question though have you. What qualities do you think the other four possess that would mean we should opt for a change of manager after 8 games, several of which have been tough games anyway. Lets have a look at what each has done. Holloway - promoted via play-offs, went down due to being defensively naive. Di Canio - got promoted from League 2, doing OK in League 1, but seems a loose cannon and surely won't get on with NC. Gus Poyet - got promoted from League 1, spent plenty of cash in Championship yet still sits outside play-offs. Owen Coyle - promoted to Premier League with Burnley via play-offs, did well initially at Bolton, possibly unlucky last year to go down as a result of injuries but relegated nonetheless. Personally, I'd keep Adkins over any of those as there would be no guarantees they could do a better job. The other three you mention are fair enough even though I'd hate to see Harry back here and lets be honest, he took us down last time so no guarantees he would keep us up this time. If we get shot of NA then I'd want a recognised manager with top flight experience otherwise I think its a complete waste of time and expense. Personally, I still believe we will be OK albeit it will likely be close either way but I expected that in the first place. I was never in the camp of thinking we would be able to become a top half team overnight. Changes of manager do not work anything like as often as people think.