Fair enough.
I don’t like using either the Guardian or HNH as a source, but the opposite could true https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/03/half-reform-voters-believe-non-white-british-citizens-forced-encouraged-leave in that the likes of Matthew Goodwin are probably going to Lowe if Farage moves too close to hoover up more Tory right/centre and Labour Leave votes.
In the same way that someone on the ERG side of the Tory party might think ‘sod it, I’ll vote Reform and have the full fat option’, it is possible that the same could happen with a slightly more centrist Reform (not sure that’s likely with Braverman there, but I’ll carry on!) and Lowe’s party for someone who has been Reform/UKIP/Brexit Party if they want hardcore policies on even settled/citizens.
Also, assuming James Johnson is right (he could be), and Rupert doesn’t have much profile beyond social media, Southampton, Yarmouth and rural Gloucestershire, that could change if Musk ponies up the promised campaigning funds.