EFL Saints

What surprises me from my outside perspective (Ipswich fan) is that Martin has marketed himself as a process manager but has never stuck around anywhere long enough to see the project through. This season is his big chance as it's the first time he's had players with enough talent for him to deliver good possession stats and consistently win matches. With that in mind, you'd have thought he'd have focused on tightening up at the back a bit but the defending tonight was laughably poor and worse than anything I saw at Swansea, albeit from a small sample size. The tactical system is odd too. The whole point of inverting the full backs is to reduce the risk of being caught on the counter attack and yet the opposite has happened. Mavididi had the choice of two unmarked players to square it to when bearing down on goal, one on either side. I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. I know there have been injuries at CB but playing Charles there with a two man central midfield in front of him was incredibly naive. That team was crying out for a midfield destroyer to sit in, something which seems to be lacking in the squad. Downes can put himself about but is more of a box-to-box player. Even though Saints have a far superior squad and will probably finish above us come May, I'm fairly confident of us getting a result on Tuesday. Our pressing and counter attacking are very strong, two things which Martin's sides struggle with. I do hope he gets it right as despite being an ex-Norwich captain, I have always found him far more likeable than many of their ex-players. He needs to sort things out very quickly though as he's still struggling with the same tactical mistakes he was making two or three years ago.

I imagine you'll get good odds on Hull going up automatically!

I agree we won't be anywhere near third but I don't think us being second last season as a reason for that. There's no real correlation between where the promoted league one sides finish and how they do in the Championship. Last year they all finished in reverse order. I'm fairly confident in us being the best promoted team. Wednesday are an absolute basket case and Plymouth, despite being incredibly well run with a top manager, are coming into the season with virtually a whole new defence.

Having Sheffield Wednesday first up should be a big help on that front, as they're far less prepared for the new season. Should be an early win to build confidence. If that were to happen, could you see Martin getting the sack or would the owners stick with him?

Russell Martin's teams have definitely been style over substance in his managerial career but he's never had a squad with a talent advantage over most of their opponents which is what makes me think he'll have more success than previously. Another ball-playing centre-back is a must though.

Your first sentence basically describes our first season down in League One in 2019, although there were no star youths to sell! Interesting that you're fairly pessimistic. Leicester aside, there aren't many seriously strong sides, I think he strength of the league comes from the number of teams who will have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

Yeah not a million miles off from what I've got, except for West Brom and Bristol City. I think Plymouth will be a very hot and cold team. Ah yes vaguely remember that, wasn't it the season where Huddersfield had a crazy unbeaten run? It was ridiculous last year, especially as Wednesday looked home and dry by mid March but a significant chunk of the fanbase were chanting the manager out despite finishing on 96 points. I find it hard to see Saints having a poor season. Of all the sections of the table, I'm most confident about the top three, with Leeds being the biggest potential spanner in the works there.

Yep our run was incredible. Could never have foreseen it happening when I was watching us draw 0-0 at Bristol Rovers in February, a result which took us eight points adrift of the top two. McKenna getting poached is always a worry. I think the relegated teams are the only ones in the Championship who could turn his head but if we start off well and a Premier League club comes calling, it will be difficult to keep hold of him.

Relegated teams are always difficult to judge, although that's part of the fun of predicting before the season starts!

Thanks! I've got the frame ready! Yeah relegated teams are always difficult to judge because there's so much turnover. Bazunu in particular is a funny one, from what I've read his form hasn't picked up in pre-season but stylistically he seems the right sort of keeper to have in a Russell Martin team. I'd love to think we can sneak into 6th but I reckon it's a season too early for that, even if there's not a great to deal to separate most of the teams from the lower end of the playoffs downwards. We're very very well drilled but I worry we're a centre-back short as our current options were primarily ball carriers last season and didn't have to do a lot of actual defending because we dominated virtually every game, which won't happen at this level. We've been linked with Auston Trusty (player of the year on loan at Birmingham last year) so if that happens I'll be a bit more confident. Like most teams, we need another striker too. There may have been a bit of second guessing myself though as I'm always conscious of not appearing to be biased.

Hi I'm an Ipswich fan who writes a blog about the EFL over on substack. I wrote a piece about some potential transfer targets for Southampton on here a few weeks back; thanks to those who commented on that one. I've written a predictions/preview piece for the Championship this year, split into two parts. How do you reckon you’ll do? As with most relegated clubs, things seem a bit up in the air transfer wise but I think even without Lavia and Ward-Prowse there’s enough in the team to challenge the top two. In particular, the full-back options look strong. Rumours of Tella going back to Burnley seem to have quietened down a bit too? I guess there will be one more midfielder coming in too. If the stuff about Flynn Downes has any legs that’s really exciting, he was great for us in L1 and easily stepped up at Swansea. Happy to hear other opinions though as you'll all keep a closer eye on your club than me. If you enjoy, I’d really appreciate any subscriptions to the blog – it’s free! Most of the articles are deep dives into individual clubs rather than pieces like this but I like to mix things up from time to time. Cheers 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com) 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

Thank you. I'm planning on doing a season preview/predictions article which I'll post on here when it comes out, probably towards the end of July. Cheers. I think Manning is the more likely of the two arrivals due to his links with Martin but they're both good options. Giles has a higher ceiling and a lower floor, he can be incredible going forward and from set pieces but lapses in concentration are more of a feature of his game, like a Championship version of Trent Alexander Arnold.

Hahah thank you!

Thanks. The right back options are comfortably the best in the division, even if Livramento struggles with fitness again. Yeah 5th place followed by relegation the next season. The worst case of second season syndrome in the Premier League era.

Cheers, have changed the formation at the bottom. Not sure how I made that error, must have been writing it late at night! I wouldn't be surprised to see both Smallbone and Alcaraz playing with somebody like Grimes or whoever joins in a midfield three. I agree central/defensive midfield is an area where at least two need to be brought in. Keeping hold of Adams will be key, a big decision to make on whether to sell now for a fee or risk losing him for free next year. I'd probably take the risk and hope he can be the man to lead the line this year. I take it Onuachu is probably going to move abroad? Will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Championship if not.