chiknsmack

Sounds a bit like the Gambler's Fallacy. "If, like me, you like a flutter and you see that black has come up on the roulette wheel a sack full of times in a row (as an example say it's landed on black 10 times in a row but not red) then it’s the kind of situation where I might be tempted to bet on red." There's also the fact that your stats come from past results, and past results aren't necessary a predictor of future performance. Saints might have scored 3 goals for every ten shots on target this season, but against an above-average keeper the conversion rate may be lower (and against a shit keeper it may be higher). Ditto if we (somehow) have worse finishers than usual taking these shots. Regression/reversion to the mean is a thing, but over a single game the numbers can stay well away from the long-term average without it being a statistically-crazy outcome. So while you can just say "We've had five shots on target in the first half for no goals - below our average conversion rate - so I expect us to outperform our conversion rate in the second half and therefore score at least one goal", that doesn't mean it'll happen.

I can't see us signing Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Victor Moses, AND Danny Drinkwater in one January window. Well, maybe January 2019.

Sam Amo-Ameyaw. I think Meghoma is more likely if Bree is out, so we have some cover at fullback.

He didn't prevent the keeper from releasing the ball, he helped the keeper release the ball.

@Saint86?

He played one game for the U21s last season in PL2, and scored four goals. He's clearly too good for that level (moreso than Dom Ballard, who in turn is theoretically better than the kids who would be getting Mara's minutes were he to leave). Maybe in January he should head to Valenciennes to save them from relegation; you think he'd score for fun at that level too. Their three main strikers have 0 goals from a combined ~15 full games' worth of minutes in the league this season. Though it's more likely that Adams leaves and Mara becomes the main backup to Stewart.

They didn't want him to leave. Ditto Bobb, Borges, and Palmer (though the latter two have since ended up at Ajax and Chelsea respectively, with Palmer in particular having pushed to move for (more) first team football).

I remember being so upset by Koeman's team selections for the Europa qualifiers vs Midtjylland, especially the away tie where we went out with a whimper. In hindsight the first one wasn't too bad (JWP and JRod starting over Tadic and Davis). But the second game with a back three/five with Targett and Martina as wingbacks, while leaving Tadic on the bench until the hour mark when we switched to a back four, and not playing Mane or Wanyama at all, was shite. It hurt a bit more at a time because it had been so long since we had European football and it might be a long while until we got so close again. As it turns out we made the group stages the next year and all was (mostly) forgiven.

If Bazunu had faced the same number of shots as he has, but they were all from 50yds+, we'd have conceded 0 goals so far this season, so would have conceded 25 goals fewer. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. If we ignore the quality of the shots faced (deflected shots and 1v1s after defensive failures), and ignore Bazunu's ability in possession (which is vitally important for the tactics of the team and far better than the average championship keeper), mouthbreathers can incessantly repeat "Bazunu bad" until the cows come home.

Great signing; became a German international after playing for us. Just a shame his arms keep wanting to fall off.

Six stripes in the grass, six yards each. Add a couple of yards for the angle, and one for each year that's passed since. So he pretty much volleyed it from the halfway line. Thanks for digging that up @Saint_clark.

Come on now, what do birds know about football?

If ever you can, it's when the ball has been saved by the keeper and is moving away from goal before hitting the defender in the hand from behind and going out for a corner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWL2JEF7w8I&t=177s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svtZpihan10&t=45 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cM7P8nfurY&t=34s (overshadowed by the second goal.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I91ywh-BC4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6WOiZbMj4g&t=164

1. Unsighted, could've done better but would've been a great save. 2. Free header at the back post, again could've done better/stayed bigger but not his fault. 3. Great shot across him into the side of the net. Not an expert on positioning, but looks borderline unsaveable regardless. 4. Free header loops in just inside the post. My criticism would be what's he doing pushing the opposition player around instead of getting ready to make a save (you're a keeper and there's no VAR; "accidentally" run your studs down his achilles one time and you'll have your six yard box to yourself for the rest of the game), and why does he take a second little hop after the header but before he dives for it? He looks to have slow reactions at times, but I'm not sure if it's actual slow reactions or these extra little hops leaving him too late to make the save. 5. Manning howler leaves a free shot. 6. Manning slips, untracked near post run leaves a tap in. 7. Unsighted, in off the post. Again it looks like slow reactions but I give the benefit of the doubt to the fact he was shifting his weight to the right to try to see around players in front of him. 8. Untracked run back post, great header downwards. Maybe could've done better (save with his foot or rush the player to cut down the angle once he sees there's a free header incoming)? 9. Thick deflection, which is then curling away from him along the ground. Maybe could've done better. 10. Should've saved it; his first and only howler for a goal this season. The presence of a couple of players in his eyeline didn't help, and you can lay the primary blame with Holgate for turning the ball over and then charging out of position (with a dishonourable mention for Downes' defending afterwards) but not good from Bazunu. 11. Great first save after Holgate gifts his man a free header (pushed wide and well away from goal) but can't save a tap in after Holgate has an airswing on the low ball back in. Arguably, after covering the near post in case the ball back in is a shot, he should be quicker to move back across goal when he sees it's not. But that's harsh. 12. Unmarked man (/kid) back post has a largely free header (token effort from a late-arriving Downes, though arguable KWP should've handed off his man) and heads down well. Could've done better, maybe should've been a little more central. I'd like to see him stay bigger and be more aggressive, and his slow reactions/extra hops before diving don't help him, AND there have been a few poor saves from him which haven't resulted in goals, but there's also been plenty of terrible play in front of him to put him under pressure. He's not a very good shot stopper, but he's very good in possession. For the way the manager wants to play, that's better than being a good shot stopper who can't pass to save his life. In an ideal world you'd have both, and mixed in with the dross there have been some great saves from Bazunu so maybe in time he'll provide both (certainly for the price paid for him he should do). He's clearly the best keeper on the books and "YHGTI", so while I get the exact opposite feeling when a shot comes in ("Oh no, this is a goal") to the one I used to get before a JWP free kick ("Oh yes, this is a goal") I'll support him because he's the best and only option right now. (Whether he should be or not is another matter.)

Double it. THB, Stephens, Bednarek, Charles, anyone else. Holgate fits in ahead of Onuachu and McCarthy, but only just. Really hope he improves with time and familiarity with the system. He certainly needs to to earn a spot on the bench.

No shame in being wrong. A little bit of a shame in being so relentlessly negative. For your sake as much as anyone else's (though plenty of us found you annoying AF the past few weeks, so you'd be doing us a favour too) you'd do well to be a bit more positive about things. Especially hypothetical things. We'd probably all be better off if we spent less time worrying about negative hypotheticals and save that time and energy for worrying about/dealing with actual negative happenings.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/66534464

He's also 19 and in his first year of senior football. We saw what putting a heavy workload on teenagers did to Tino (not so much the ACL which I put down to bad luck rather than overload, but the injury beforehand) and Lavia. He'll get used in the same way we should've used Lavia last year; backup to a senior player (in this case Downes, like Lavia should've started as backup to Romeu), getting more playing time as the season goes on, then taking over as #1 next year.

The idea in possession is that the fullbacks sit in beside the DM while the other two midfielders push up, making a 2-3-2-3. Downes or Charles is the DM, Alcaraz or Arma is the left attacking midfielder, Smallbone or Stu is the right attacking midfielder. Smallbone would be third choice DM if needed. You'd expect Smallbone to be favoured when defending a lead; the other three are better at carrying the ball and attacking while Smallbone is better at passing and defending.

Ross Stewart, Stuart Armstrong, (Sinclair Armstrong?), Adam Armstrong, Che Adams, Shea Charles, Charly Alcaraz. Need to sign Charlie Taylor from Burnley to get Taylor Harwood-Bellis to join. Do we take a punt on signing Ruben Alcaraz from Cadiz? It could bring the return of Selles, or it could bring us Dias/Neves/Loftus-Cheek.

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Jordan Ayew. It was an obvious dive.

No-one mentioned tax. @Nolan mentioned the 40% relegation wage reduction and so, for Aribo to be on 80k a week now, he'd have had to have been on $133k a week last year. Which he wasn't (I doubt he was even on half that), hence the article was bollocks.