coalman

24 more point from 19 games needed (assuming 39 is the magic number). Which sounds a sight better than 27 from 18.

Spare a thought for the Toffees fans. Forced to miss a night of sleep for an impromptu fireworks display then forced to stay behind protesting their board who aren't safely able to watch the game in person. Not sure which thought, mind you.

Get in! It's the hope that gets you though.

This sounds like most of our trips to Goodison. I think (hope) the players will be so incensed by the fireworks that they'll be on it from minute one. Saints win 3-1 and Lampard fired by Monday morning.

They've done it to a few teams apparently. This answers the question I awoke to - what can Everton fans do today to make me dislike them and their club more?

Win today and Jones frees himself from the shadows of Frank de Boer and Steve Wrigley in terms of Premier League results. https://www.squawka.com/en/worst-win-rates-managers-premier-league/ Fwiw I hope we win and continue the form from Wednesday. Still not impressed with Jones to date which may be my bias against people on a mission from God who aren't Dan Akroyd or John Belushi.

It seems like every year I tell myself this is the right time to break the Goodison jinx and every year we play better but somehow conspire to lose. If this season really is oppositeland as demonstrated by last nights performance versus City then can I have 3-0 to Saints, please?

That was unrecognisable from the team of the last few weeks. The win in the FA Cup was based on a generous helping of good fortune thanks to their keeper. Last night we deserved it. Well done, everyone at the club.

If we continue to play like we did last night we will cause them problems. If we play like we did against Forest we'll cause ourselves problems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

Boehly has come out and said that Potter is part of his project long term and he's not bothered about results in the short term. I'd love Potter at Saints.

I think you've misunderstood my post I'm not talking about regression to the mean or law of averages and studies. I'm talking about how it would apply to results coming as a result of taking a particular approach.

I partially agree though there's an argument Swansea played more of a part in that Hughes. I didn't expect us to stay up that year. The only mistake was in extending his contract after we stayed up (at the time I remember saying he'd earned a chance). Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The thing which breaks my heart is we're talking wistfully about Hughes as manager which is a reflection of where the club is right now.

He got a good outcome. Not sure I agree he did a good job.

One of the many counter intuitive things with statistics is it's generally impossible to learn anything meaningful from a single outcome. You'd need a large data set to feel any degree of confidence in the correlation, particularly as it's a correlation rather causal relationship. To give a window into the life of a data nerd the starting point in any kind of meaningful statistical treatment of a problem - the first thing you do is look for correlations in single or combinations of variables. Then build hypotheses This is what I imagine Ankersen has done. The question is how much further he has taken it. For example - the quality of the chance is a subjective interpretation by whoever is watching the game. To have confidence in your correlation you would need to isolate the selection bias of this. For example your data set is from a league scored by a person who is well correlated. Then you try and apply it to another league which works it out differently. At this point you might be comparing apples with oranges without realising it because it's called xG in both. Which leads to another big problem with statistics. That a superficial analysis can come across as authoritative and the majority of to the population can't tell the difference. I'm not saying Ankersen's analysis is superficial but as many have noted here there are big gaps in reasoning which indicate it might be an oversimplification. Good data scientists are ludicrously rare. There are a lot of people out there misusing data though. Noting I'm average at best but have managed a few data science organisations so have an idea what questions to ask.

The thread title change and the shake it all about thread are what makes saintsweb worthwhile

That's poor man management. As a manager you take responsibility when it goes badly and give credit to your players when things go well. You shield them when it's shit and elevate them when it's good.

I fear for our inability to play through City's press. Though they seem to struggle with us for some reason and our players seem to up their game. Given our fragile confidence right now this could get ugly.

I would posit that xG is the current best guess but that it hasn't been rigorously tested and has some glaring weaknesses due to the subjective interpretation required to calculate it.

Without wishing to revive the xG unhappiness in the forum - that's why Ankersen uses xG as a lever for being better able to correlate with outcomes. So he's looking for things which correlate with increasing your own xG and decrease the other team's.

I see Jones has decided to use his post match interviews to have a pop at the fans booing him. Not sure what he gains by doing this.

Diallo and Djenepo to bring it home

"now if everyone could just look like they're enjoying themselves"

I still reckon we've got an og in us. Though on this showing so do Palace.

At times it's like a bunch of people met for the first time in the car park a couple of hours ago and were given Saints shirts and asked to get changed.