The Left Back

Assuming it's a complete lottery (indulge me) the average chance of winning a penalty shoot has to be 50% because it's two teams and they keep going until someone wins. So if each team did 100 shoot outs the mean score would be 50. However, statistically, not all the teams will win 50 shoot outs. Some will win more some fewer - this is called standard deviation from the mean. I think England's record is about 30%, which is well within range of a normal distribution of scores across a large enough sample. Not sure what Germany's is, but think I saw 80%, again you would expect to see a score like this, albeit at the far end of a standard deviation curve. So yes I agree with your hypothesis - England have been unlucky and Germany lucky. Not sure it 's going to help you win the lottery though. Now before I get pounced on - I don't think. shoot outs are a complete lottery in the true sense of the word. But I do think they are massively over analysed by people who broadly don't know what they are talking about. And I do think it's a rubbish way to decide a match, particularly as it always seems to be matches where the outcome is significant (i.e. a knockout game).

Best song. Best brass band Best badge I might be biased about these

I've a pretty strong opinion about penalties that they don't stand up to too much analysis. Penalties that go in are good penalties, penalties that do not are bad penalties. Simple. Also shoot outs that are won chose their takers well, shoot outs that are lost chose poorly. Given they are professional footballers who can manipulate a ball in the way they want, and given they are humans who can brain fart at any moment, then penalties is just a lottery. It makes me laugh when the pundits make any more of penalties and shoots outs than that. Just pick five players who are up for it and not too tired to walk to the spot and the rest is almost down to random chance. And in case anyone asks, I do not support penalties as a way to settle drawn matches. My idea would simply be to play on with next goal wins and have each team withdraw a player after every 3 or 5 minutes. It would be 7-a-side by 12 or 20 minutes and that should be enough to ensure a goal every time. Your example is exactly the point of what the butterfly effect is saying. Before dismissing it as rubbish I would spend some time studying quantum theory. And if you have studied quantum theory and still believe your example is rubbish I would appreciate understanding your thinking. Having said that, this topic probably belongs in the lounge, which I have only just discovered.

Yes you're probably right about that. Probably the only debate in his mind is upfront or in behind That's a fair shout. Given we play two I'm not sure what the best combination is - you can throw Redmond and Tella into the mix and it's even more complicated. Of those 5 Adams plays best with his back to goal and also probably is best sliding passes through to the other striker. I just feel like Broja is undroppable and A Armstrong needs a run of starts, and together it would be interesting to see how they did - there would certainly be no shortage of shooting. And I think Adams may still have injury/fitness issues.

I'm intrigued by who is going to start this weekend. There are tough choices for Ralph to make all over the pitch. He's tried several systems this season already, so can't even rely on that to help decide. It feels like a long time since we had 20 players who could legitimately make a claim to be starting. To my mind the only certainties are McCarthy, Tino, Salisu and Romeu. KWP or Perraud (or both)? Lyanco or Bednarek? Diallo or JWP (or both)? Then further forward 3 or 4 from S Armstrong, Djenepo, Moi, Redmond, Tella, Broja, A Armstrong, Adams (surely not Walcott or Long). I'd like to see McCarthy, Tino, Lyanco, Salisu, KWP, Romeu, JWP, S Armstrong, Redmond, A Armstrong, Broja in our favoured 4,2,2,2. With so much choice it's almost certain the manager is going to get a load of stick whoever he picks, which will magnify and escalate if we lose, rumble on if we draw and disappear if we win. This is the 10th game, a point at which I think the table starts to be meaningful. A win makes us 13-15th, draw/lose means 15th-17th. Given our performances over the first quarter of the season I'd hope we could get to 10th-11th and expect us to avoid a serious relegation battle. But I've been supporting us too long to be certain about any of that.

Can only answer this for myself, but two reasons spring to mind based on very distant memories. Firstly he gave absolutely everything, always looked fully committed and wholehearted, not afraid of the ugly stuff. Secondly he seemed like one of us on the pitch rather than a professional footballer. He didn't have the most athletic demeanour and looked a bit scruffy in his kit, and he ran in a 'working class way' if that makes any sense at all!

Given words like 'best' and 'promptly' are subjective and you say he continually gets things wrong you may as well say that your expectation is that Ralph doesn't pick the team you want him to and doesn't make subs when you want him to. My expectation is he picks the team and makes the changes he thinks give us the best chance of success. My faith in him as our manager is tested sometimes, eg Walcott on Saturday, but that is primarily because (a) we didn't win and (b) I would have picked someone else or hooked him earlier. Not sure where I am going with this, bear with me. I guess I'm reacting badly to 'continually gets wrong' - it's too binary or hyperbolic. I get that you are getting fed up with him (even though I am not personally there yet). But it would be fairer to say something like 'he sometimes/often does things I don't agree with'. Now I've written this down I'm not sure it's adding much but I may as well use my 3-post allocation up early today. Since writing this I see @Baird of the landhas made a similar point much more effectively so apologies for repetition

I'm coming to this very late but as it's a thread that just keeps going I thought I'd add my two penneth. I've kept half an eye on the thread as it's developed (from about page 11) and so some of this is a reaction to all that. Team announced - surprised Walcott started but the rest of the team was fairly predictable. I'd have liked to see either Djenepo, Tella or Tino (with KWP in at RB) there. It's obviously S Armstrong's place in the team but he's still clearly working his way back. Atmosphere walking to the ground noticeably more up beat. A lovely buzz about the place pre-match. Brass band excellent and didn't even notice Burnley were on the pitch. Warm and generous applause for taking the knee - couldn't hear any boos. Then the game started but we didn't. For 30 minutes Burnley were best in every way, including pressing and passing - not something I've seen from them before. They were up for it and we were outplayed, out thought and out fought. I thought we would do well to get to half time only 1 down. And then it was like a switch flicked. It was after a break in play when pretty much the whole team went over to the bench. Something was obviously said but I didn't notice a change in formation. It was like we suddenly switched on. We became unplayable and should have scored 4 goals before half time. Walcott's miss wound me up. Redmond's was inexplicable - we were all up and celebrating the goal that never was. I really felt sorry for him on a human level - his smile was nothing more than disbelief. When we did score he was right in front of us and let out the most almighty cheer/shout - the relief was tangible. Second half we started well and the goal was a feature of pressing and panic, followed by a great finish from Broja (very similar to one he got for Albania?). He does look the real deal if still a bit raw. I felt that if we could hold the lead for 15 minutes we would be home and dry because Burnley had lost their spark. Their equaliser sort of came out of nothing. Having seen a replay it was pretty weak from Bednarek. Then the game sort of became an ordinary game between two evenly matched average teams. They made an attacking sub in Jay rod that didn't work for them (and he could have been sent off immediately). We took too long to make our changes. I would have had Walcott off when they equalised and made at least one more change before 70 mins. Came away from the game thinking that it was much more entertaining than Burnley normally is. The buzz out of the ground was still pretty upbeat (very different to reading this thread). I feel like it was 2 points dropped but for me we're still settling into the season and so there was plenty of encouragement in the performance. I thought Tino, Salisu, Redmond, Oriol and Broja all played well. Moi and Diallo both grew into the game. McCarthy didn't have much to do - but his distribution its still iffy. 9 games down - we've had better starts and we've had worse starts (it feels like we've had more worse starts than better starts). I don't understand the entrenched argument about winning stats - it's pretty obvious everyone will use the numbers to enhance an opinion they already have. You could say we have 4 points from 2 games, 8 points from 9 games, x points this year, y points last year. It's all taking factual data and presenting in such a way as to justify a view. If you believe we are doomed and/or need to sack Ralph you are obviously going to use different arguments from someone who believes we are not doomed and/or need to hang on to Ralph. In the end it becomes a gut view - my gut view at this point in time is that we will be ok.

It's easier to ignore all our games. Not sure why you (and others who seem equally unhappy) don't. Sorry if this sounds like I'm having a pop, it's really not meant that way. I genuinely wish our club was giving you more pleasure but it's clearly not.

I know they went on to become very good premier league players (and Adkins played a significant part in that) but the point @Dmanmade was that Adkins was successful in part because he was managing 3/4 good premier league players in league 1. I don't think any of the players we had could be described in that way at the time - perhaps a few were peripheral premier league players or squad members at one time but that's not the same.

Who were the 3 or 4 top premier league players we had in that side?

I'd be interested to know where you got these ambition statements from. The Saints one echoes an opinion I offered (though in a different context) earlier this season. But I've not seen it laid out as a fact in the way you did. And the Everton one sounds more like a hope or at best an aspiration rather than a stated ambition. Not necessarily disagreeing with you on either, but the way you've laid it out sounds sort of bitter. As to Small being 3rd choice - I think that's only a feature of him not being yet up to match fitness. I've never seen him play, so have no idea if this is right, but based on views here and Ralph's utterances I would guess he is 2nd choice LB at the club but not fit. Your argument is a bit like saying Stephens is now 4th choice because he has an injury. If you want to apply your logic I'd argue Small is at the moment also behind Salisu and Djneppo in the LB pecking order and so 5th.

11 days to go until we get Howe. @PilchardsIs your source sticking by his story and has het got any more to add? My instincts are fighting my curiosity.

Not looking forward to this game so much, purely because it's Burnley and win, lose or draw it always seems to be a game lacking fluidity and entertainment. Fair play to them for a style that has helped them stay in the league but it can be grim viewing. Having said that it's good to welcome Jay Rod and Jack Cork back, two of our ex-players that I like and will probably be able to manage an appreciative clap for. As for our team I'd be tempted to bring Adams or Armstrong in for Djenepo and move Redmond wider for this one. Other than that I think the team picks itself at the moment. Obviously hoping for some momentum building after last week; two wins in a row with Norwich to follow would be just what's needed to settle everyone down after a difficult start to the season.

I think it's brilliant - perhaps I'm old fashioned too. Brings back fond memories of the the Dell and does invoke Live and Let Die funeral scene (as has been said). I love the way it builds tempo as it moves down the Kingsland. And it is bloody loud - I'm guessing it's mic'd up to the PA

I'm probably not going to add much to the sum of insight on this thread but, for what it's worth... I disagree with @Dman's opening premise. JWP hasn't brought his A game this season yet, but he's still one of the first names on the team sheet for me based on his form over the last couple of seasons. The criticism of him on this thread about slowing things down is, I think, about three years out of date. So I think we are a better team with him in it. Having said that I do like Diallo and he has potential to grow into a fine Kante-style midfielder. As many have said, it's great we have 3 decent players for those two positions, as well as the option of starting or, more likely, finishing games with all 3 on the pitch. Not sure how the Broja v Armstrong debate got going (and can't be arsed to look back) but I simply don't think we have anywhere near enough data on either of them to make a decent judgement. And by data I mean actual experience of watching them in our kit. So how people have managed to dig themselves into such deep trenches over this is beyond me. It feels like the actual debate is less important than point-scoring, dick-waving and generally being unpleasant to fellow Saints fans (something I can't for the life of me understand). As usual though there is debate to be had in amongst all the detritus. For my money, based on what little I have seen, Broja has something about him and, being so young, his potential is huge. It's a shame we couldn't sign him - my worry is he becomes undroppable this season, then leaves, and we are left with disgruntled/underdeveloped forwards for next year. So I want to make sure we give Armstrong (and Adams who is still improving over the long term) as much chance as possible to be successful here. What I've seen of Armstrong gives me hope that he can fill the void left by Ings (though I don't think he is in the same class). As has been said elsewhere, our biggest issue this season so far has been creating quality chances - if we can fix that I would back Armstrong and Broja (and Adams too) to score their fair share.

That's not fair (or right) on Redmond. He was one of our best players against Chelsea so yesterday was a clear case of him backing up a good performance.with another one. I think we can safely assume he'll be playing against Burnley - it's probably the safest bet among the front 4.

Speedie 0 in 12, Dixon 2 in 11 despite being set up by the legendary Le Tiss and Case. Adams 13 in 71, Armstrong 1 in 7 in front of providers who are “nowhere near” you need a hug too

Just to clarify. Of the 92 teams in the league, you are saying we are the worst? And again to clarify, you are predicting Long will start on Saturday? And once more, in case I am misunderstanding, you are saying relegation seems to be almost certain? I've been away for a few days and off-line. I've come back to get some insight into how we think this week's game is going to go and the place seems to have descended into a pit of despair and addled thinking. I'm wanting to give you all a big hug. I'll see your Speedie/Dixon and raise you the 93 choices - Nicky Banger, Frankie Bennett, Paul Moody, Iain Dowie, Lee Powell, Craig Maskell

My view, for what it's worth, is that there isn't much between Phillips and JWP in terms of quality, they just have different assets. Before the Euros the jury was out on both for England and plenty of my (non-Saints) mates would have picked JWP over Phillips. Southgate ended up choosing Phillips and was vindicated by what I though was a pretty impressive tournament (am I right in thinking the England Fans Club voted him their player of the tournament?). I think JWP was very unlucky not to have made the squad given his performances over the last two years, the fact that Henderson was a waste of a place and the weird need for so many fullbacks. I don't think either JWP or Phillips are premium international midfielders but if Carlton Palmer, Dennis Wise and Geoff Thomas can win caps then they are at least adequate for the job Southgate needs. They are both technically accomplished, with great engines and appear willing/able to do the job their managers ask for. JWP has stand out deadball technique (though not yet this season) and Phillips is more mobile/dynamic. I'd rather have JWP in a Saints team than Phillips, but would be happy to have both. There was an article on Phllips in the Sunday Times this week and he seems a thoroughly decent young man too, which I personally like to see. As to the evolution of this thread, I find it a bit sad that people aren't able to listen/read as well as they talk/write. The desperate need to be right to the point of righteous gets in the way in my view. And the name calling of fellow Saints fans doesn't sit well with me. On the other hand it does make for entertaining reading, in a sort of car-crash way.

This was one of my hardest choices. I went with Flowers because I just have fantastic memories of him in goal. Shilton was clearly the better player, but I'm just not quite so fond of him. Perhaps because he refused to give me his gloves when we invaded the pitch at Notts County after the last game of the 83/84 season when we finished 2nd in the first division! Just missed out on him. Think I saw his twilight in the early 70s, when his status exceeded his contribution. My Dad and his mates would have certainly had him in, he was Mr Southampton - the MLT of his era. As to those getting depressed by comparing these players to the current squad I would encourage you not to do that. We've had hundreds of players worse than the ones we have now. If you choose to compare anything with the best on offer you are going to get miserable. Better just to enjoy the memories and hope that some of the current squad end up having Saints careers worthy of being mentioned when we do another thread like this in 10-15 years time (sorry that's turned into a lecture!)

I'm going with players based on their time at Saints. I'm also going with a loose interpretation of 'best' to allow some personal favourites. 1. Flowers 2. Golac 3. Bridge 4. Williams 5. Wright 6. Svensson 7. Le Tiss 8. Moran 9. Lambert 10. Case 11. Rod Wallace Could easily pick another team, or perhaps two, without any loss in quality/personal favourites.

I'm really surprised Watford's managerial decision making is being put up as something we should aspire to. I've a friend who's a season ticket holder there and he has given up expecting to understand any of the rationale for the comings and goings. I think they have had 8 managers since Ralph joined us, been relegated, finished 11th in Prem, as well as 17th.

I have to disagree on this point. After we equalised I felt we were the team most likely to go on and win the game. Sure we weren't making buckets off chances but we had the momentum and they looked to have run out of ideas. Their crowd was very restless and the energy in their team was not there. It was only after the sending off that this changed. On VAR, having now seen it on a screen, I think VAR should not have ruled on either their disallowed Werner goal or JWP's tackle. What I liked about VAR in the Euro's was they took a quick look at things and only investigated if there was a clear and obvious error. So decisions were much quicker because the only ones they spent any time on where clearly a mistake. In both cases yesterday the decision was marginal. Reading the thread here we still can't all agree on whether JWP's was a yellow or red. So there was no clear and obvious error. Similarly for the Werner disallowed goal it took ages, and that is because it's not clearly a foul; yes it might be, but no clear and obvious error by the on-field team who had a close and clear view. So they need to reset VAR in the minds of the Stockley users to only focus on stuff that's clear and obvious. Actually, yesterday we benefitted from this because if they had applied what I'm saying we would have gone 2-0 down and that would have been hard to come back from, and we could have been overwhelmed. And I do wonder about Mike Dean's ego. It seems like he has to feel involved and important, and so in the grounds we could all feel his presence yesterday. It's almost like he enjoyed keeping us all waiting so long and then directed Atkinson to the screen like a puppet-master.

Just back from the game. Thought I'd post my reflections on here before reading too much as don't want to be swayed by others. To remind you, I was sitting in Chelsea's West Stand, using a season ticket offered by a friend. It was a very different experience as you can imagine. As well as being surrounded by opposing fans and not feeling able to shout, sing or jump up, I was also five rows from the front so much lower down than I'm used to (almost at pitch level as the stands are below pitch level). First things first, I thought our fans were excellent. Would love to hear from people who went as to how that compared to usual games. From my perspective the fans were loud, very supportive (even sang for Long when he warmed up) and non-stop. They had a good range of songs, sang and cheered consistently throughout and gave Chelsea's 'library atmosphere' plenty of banter. As good as the average away fans at St. Mary's if not better. By contrast I though the home support was very quiet and half-hearted (until they went 2-1 up). When the teams came out at the start is was just weirdly quiet and I actually missed the start of the second half because so many were still in the bar area and there was no noise from the arena. First half we started ok, our game plan was clearly the high press and we did a pretty good job. It seemed a really soft set-piece goal to give away, I've only seen 1 reply but obviously someone should have been following their roving centre half at the back post - not sure who. We grew into the game, good combinations down the left with KWP and Redmond, who I though played very well. Over the other side (too far for me to tell) it seemed like Tino and Theo were not doing so well. The centre halves looked very solid and Romeu and JWP also playing well. But it was clear we were hanging on. The foul on KWP for the disallowed Werner goal seemed very soft, and I was surprised it got chalked off. Second half we changed the shape, pushing Romeu back into a three and bringing Diallo on for Theo. We suddenly looked much more solid and Chelsea became increasingly less dangerous. As the half went on we started to actually get on top, without creating loads, though I remember Armstrong having a good chance that was deflected. It was no surprise we got the penalty and I had to sit on my hands as it was taken. The turning point was obviously the sending off. Up until then I really thought we could go on and win. We were on top and they had run out of ideas. I've not had a good look at the tackle but first viewing was that he did lose control (nothing nasty, just part of our very aggressive play at the time) and so it was about how high his foot/studs were. I expect it was one of those that we'll be annoyed about but would have screamed for if it was the other way. From there I thought for a while we would hang on, as they were still short of ideas. I remember thinking their 2nd goal was a thing of beauty at the time, a great ball from Barkley, a perfect cross from 'Dave' as they call him in the West Stand and Werner in the right place. Hands up, no arguments or blame. From then it was hard for us. Their 3rd goal was extraordinary, need to see it again, but it seemed to hit several bits of wood before a worldie from McCarthy wasn't enough to keep it out. So a game we played well in, but came away pointless. As I've said elsewhere, I focus more on performances than results at this stage of the season and ours was pretty good. We were set up well, and differently in both halves, showed lots of good things on the pitch, including leadership, aggression and commitment. We imposed ourselves on the second half and, without the red, could well have won, and would probably have drawn. I always get a bit miserable when we lose, but there was much to be happy about today. We're obviously still a little short creatively (as well as being a little short on height!) but in pretty good order. I think everyone played pretty well, with standout performances from McCarthy, Salisu, KWP and Redmond; although having said that Bednarek, JWP and Romeu weren't far behind and Tella played well (I realise that's nearly everyone!!). I'm imagining the usual suspects will be wanting Ralph out. To me, based on today, that is complete nonsense. The team had clear identity (two actually, one each half) was well-set up, and the players were fully committed and motivated. They also showed good leadership and aggression. The selection was good, the subs were right (though the latter two couldn't do much given the situation) and so I think criticism based on today is misplaced. It's the European Champions away and we had the upper hand at 1-1; I've no complaints. Redmond is the other piñata at the moment and I thought he played really well. He went looking for the ball all the time and was direct and skilful. I see why Ralph will always pick him for these sort of games. He combined well with KWP and Tella and I think was only subbed because of cramp.