Dman

Didn’t they say that we’d pretty much continue to operate the same, sustainable, model. Therefore any incomings will need to be balanced with outgoings.

Someone needs to tell glen hoddle about confirmation bias. Those chances only had an XG of 0.5 and 0.4. But what does hoddle know about w chance that should be taken, he only played for England in the World Cup.

wouldn’t it just be fantastic if we signed Pompey’s best player this season. by all account, supposed to be a top top keeper. More likely City will loan him again than sell.

Emery doing what Emery does in Europe. Wonder if he fancies another stab in the PL, wouldn’t mind subbing Ralph out for him.

All I know is if Adams was on the end of that Modric pass, it’d have been straight at the keeper… regardless of the XG.

Yep. Nephew to a few of the lads (Masons) who play for for Sholing, for anyone that’s interested in non league football.

And the keeper, Brad Collins, who’s now at Barnsley is a Southampton lad. Having been involved in high level grassroots youth football in the area, you see more Chelsea scouts than you do saints, or at least did 2 or 3 years back. A very wide net and I know saints lost out to them on 1 or 2 players (that I know of, definitely will have been more).

I agree with this. It was actually Twar who was arguing that we were unlucky to concede 6 given their XG was 4. Anyone reasonable and who actually watched the game can tell you that is nonsense.

Fuck me. Head against a brick wall. there are many external factors. Some being; - Time and situation of the game - less pressure at 80 minutes when you’re 6-0 up, than it is 0-0 in a relegation battle. - pace and accuracy of the pass / cross (specifically for these type of chances). - finishing ability of the striker. Regardless of what XG says, there are some strikers who are better than others. Anyway, agree to disagree, I cba to continue to go over the same stuff.

His evidence is based on XG, which I’ve disputed the accuracy of due to a number of external factors, which simply cannot be quantified. You’ve not been able to answer or satisfy those questions. As I’ve always said, there is certainly a place in the game for stats, used correctly, they can be a valuable tool, but also a degree of your own analysis needs to happen along side said stats. anyway, this is a long way off the thread. I maintain, on another day (let’s say Lukaku was fit), the score would very likely have been more than 6.

I guess it must be true if ‘James Tippett’, from ‘football critic’ says so. Amazing that United have spent a fortune bringing in Ronaldo, when they could have just asked Glen Murray out of retirement.

And if you’re striker is better at taking said chances (I.e a better finisher), they’ll score more goals… or are you arguing that is not correct? Or in Brighton’s case, where they have a high XG compared to goals scored (I think), chances don’t win games because their striker(s) / forwards aren’t very good…

Aye? You’re massively overthinking this. I can only assume you’ve watched the moneyball film or a few YouTube videos and think you’re some kind of genius. Clearly, a striker who score 1 of 2 chances he gets in a game, is better than one who scores 0/8. ‘Chances’ don’t win you games, goals do.

I haven’t watched much of Ronaldo, I was using him as an example as being one of the best strikers in the world for many years. But you’re missing the point completely, as per. The quality of the striker impacts the likelihood of the chance going in. XG doesn’t factor that in.

Let me clarify. What XG is good at demonstrating… “we’re playing well, creating a lot of ‘good chances’, but not putting them away. I.E Brighton. or, as an example more relevant to the film… “we need a goal scorer, adams has many qualities, but his record is x compared to his XG of x. He’s not a great finisher” What XG isn’t good at demonstrating… “We were unlucky that was was 6, their XG was only 4”. Stick Ronaldo on the end of a few of those Werner chances and he doesn’t miss. Especially the free header from 10 yards. XG is an average and there are many variables to that average, the main one being the quality of the finishing of striker. Every time someone like Werner or Adams miss from 10 yards, it brings the XG for that chance down. It also doesn’t factor in, as Chez pointed out, external pressures that simply cannot be accounted for in statistics. In short, if you watched that game and genuinely thought we were unlucky to concede 6, then You clearly have very little understanding of football.

Those claiming we shouldn’t sack Ralph are the same ones who were calling for Puel’s head. He faced the same restraints as golden boy Ralph’s arguably even worse given the players we lost that summer, finished 8th got to a cup final and yet was hounded out. his 1 season here was far more successful than any of Ralph’s 3.

It was only a month or 2 ago where people on here were saying we had an outside chance of Europe. Had we not imploded, again (as we did last season), then maybe we’d have a chance. A slim one I agree, but certainly a chance.

We had 1 and half bad seasons under 2 really poor managers. Before that, we finished 8th and we’re a solid mid table side. A clear path to relegation is a bit OTT. Had Puel stayed, we’d probably be in roughly thr same position as we are now. As someone else said, under a worse manager we’d be relegated, under a better one we’d be top 10 maybe, at a push, even Europe. Ralph’s results have been average, imo. After the initial bounce of him coming in and improving us from Hughes / MoPo (not really a huge task), have we improved? I don’t think so. We can be great, or can be appalling, we’re consistently inconsistent.

Agree. Miles behind someone like James, but at a similar age, James was learning his trade with Wigan, not in the premier league and all the pressures that bring. I think at the minute, he’d be fantastic as a wing back in a 343, but in a back 4, he’s not strong enough defensively imo.

Strangely optimistic of a result here. Arsenal are the type of team who we can cause problems if we press well. It cannot be as bad as the last game. 1-1 I’m going for. Broja and Perrud coming in for Tino and Armstrong. Maybe Redmond or Tella for Moi

For all his ridiculous comments on twitter, Le Tiss has done less to embarrass this club than the current manager and playing staff over the last 2 years.

I don’t know if you watched yesterday, but IMO, it was equal to if not worse than both of those performances.

Doesn’t really answer my question. My point, was that the chance (header) that Werner missed from 10 yards would be harder and less likely for a L2 player to score than say, Ronaldo or any other premier league striker… especially those worth £50m.

Genuine questions, given that XG is calculated based on an average of a group of shots from each position, does it factor in quality of the striker? If not, it’s completely fucking pointless.

We already hold that record.. it’s happened twice.