Manchester City won 18 and drew one of their 19 home Premier League games last season and I expect them to get off to a winning start here too.
But I don't expect them to manage a repeat of that amazing home record because it will be a lot more difficult for them, whoever they play. I know from my time at Liverpool that everyone wants to beat you when you are champions.
They are still going to score a lot of goals and win a lot of games - their only worry this year is whether Manchester United will be better than them, but that is a big worry.
Southampton, in contrast, will be in a survival battle from the off and their biggest problem will be where their goals are going to come from.
It will come down to the half-chances. They are a bottom eight club and, for the clubs down there, someone who can convert those half-chances is worth their weight in gold.
Everyone keeps telling me Saints striker Rickie Lambert will score in the Premier League but they need him to weigh in the sort of goal tally Grant Holt managed for Norwich last season.
Saints boss Nigel Adkins is a shrewd guy and they will play some good attacking football but they need someone who can get 15 goals and, at the moment, I don't think they have one.
Prediction: 2-0
From Mark Lawrenson on BBC website